Bryce's Brackets and Observations

Change of Location

2010-02-18T16:15:00.004-05:00

Readers:

My brackets will now be hosted at Busting Bracketologists.

I will probably be doing most of my posting from now on over there, with hopefully a greater degree of regularity. We trying to do a combined thing: both Seige and I will post our individual brackets on Monday or Tuesday, and then Tuesday or Wednesday we will come up with a consensus bracket. We will post the log of the discussions that we had regarding that week's bracket. We plan on being the best bracketologists this year.

Ramifications? You want to know the Ramifications? Fine!

2010-02-18T00:08:00.002-05:00

Here's what happened tonight:

Purdue beat Ohio State in Columbus. Last night, my friend and I debated for 2.5 hours coming up with a consensus bracket (which can be found here), and some time was spent debating Purdue vs. Syracuse on the 1-line. One of Purdue's knocks was that they wouldn't end up with any big road wins. Not anymore...

Saint Louis beat Rhode Island. With that, I think its safe to say farewell to the Rams, whose weak out-of-conference schedule has done them in once again. (I had them out with the assumption that they would win out their conference schedule.

Duquesne beat Charlotte. This seems like it would hurt Charlotte's bubble chances a lot, but remember - bad losses don't count that much. The Texas Tech-Charlotte discussion will be an interesting one.

Utah beat UNLV, and suddenly UNLV doesn't look like a sure tournament team. They are now the same conference record as SDSU, and are banking solely on their 4 top-50 wins and their win at New Mexico. I still think they are in, but they can't drop anymore games.

Wofford wins at Davidson, all but ensuring themselves a bye in the Southern Conference tournament.

Louisville beat Notre Dame, Notre Dame's third straight heart-breaking loss. No real ramifications, other than the near-heart attacks they are giving me.

Darnit UConn, you're supposed to be bad!

2010-02-15T22:03:00.004-05:00

Well, obviously UConn is going to show up here next week... So, what caused various movements in my seed list over the 9 days? (That is, what didn't I account for?)

Illinois (IN) beat Michigan St, beat Wisconsin at Kohl… what more could you ask for?
Louisville’s (IN) upset victory at Syracuse (Down 1) gave them the big win they needed to push up into the tournament, and the fact that it was on the road is the icing on top. That loss knocked Syracuse off the 1-line.
William & Mary (IN) was a change of opinion… I mean, 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, with wins at Wake Forest and Maryland… that’s pretty legit, in my opinion.
Richmond (Up 4) destroyed Temple and then went on the road and beat Rhode Island (OUT). The first is a good win, while the second is a decent win on the road. It also served as the final blow to Rhode Island’s fragile resume – 24-5 isn’t good enough when your best win is against Oklahoma St, and you’ve had several opportunities for better.
Tennessee (Up 3) impressed me in their loss at Kentucky, enough so that I decided that they will beat Kentucky when they come to Knoxville. Beat one one seed, you might be a fluke. Beat two one seeds, you’re the real deal. Obviously, if Tennessee loses to Kentucky, expect them to drop back down.
Purdue’s (Up 3) rise up the charts is due to two things. First, obviously they went out and beat Michigan St (Down 2) this past Saturday in East Lansing. Big wins are good, and this one means that I now have them tied for first in the conference, rather than in 3rd place. More importantly, however, they now have two road/neutral wins against top teams – and the committee like that. Michigan State, however, drops to only 3-4 against the RPI top 50, and as such cannot be considered to have an elite resume.
Northeastern (OUT) didn’t do anything to hurt themself. However, I decided that winning a conference that has no team above the 10 line is not in and of itself a good argument for inclusion, even if that conference seems to be on track for multiple bids. Expect this to be a big debate in the future.
Dayton (OUT) lost to SLU, which means I am now projecting them to finish 6th in the Atlantic 10. The A-10 is not quite strong enough to get 10 in. (Obviously, a change of heart from last week)
BYU (Down 4) is also a matter of changing opinions – I now think that their weak win total, and absence of strong wins will lead them to be seen as outside of the top tiers of teams.
Charlotte (Down 3), Temple (Down 2), and Xavier (Down 1) are a reaction to my overrating of the A-10 last week.
Texas (Down 2) lost to Oklahoma, then lost to Kansas. While I was expecting the former (since it was a classic trap game), I was not expecting the latter. This had a negative effect on the factors that I use to make my decisions.
Cornell (Down 1) and Northern Iowa (Down 1) were the result of weekend upsets, at UPenn and Bradley respectively.

Well, at least I don't have to consider my team for these anymore

2010-02-14T22:49:00.005-05:00

EDIT: (1:56 AM, February 16 - the seed list has been editted, because I just realized that I had 35 at-large teams. What a bonehead move). The above, of course, is in reference to St. John's beating the Gody-less Irish. Two weekends sandwiching a long week, and at long last a new seed list. Sometime tomorrow I'll post detailing the moves I made, but I'll make an acknowledgement - I've been severely underrating Purdue:

1: Kansas, Villanova, Kentucky, Purdue
2: Syracuse, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Duke
3: Georgetown, Pitt, Kansas St., Ohio St
4: Vanderbilt, Texas, Tennessee, Michigan St
5: Baylor, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, UNM
6: Texas A&M, Temple, BYU, Maryland
7: Marquette, Richmond, Georgia Tech, Missouri
8: Florida St, Clemson, Butler, Xavier
9: Florida, UNLV, UNI, Oklahoma St.
10: William & Mary, Illinois, USF, Ole Miss
11: Louisville, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Connecticut
12: Virginia Tech, Washington, Cornell, UTEP
13: Siena, Murray St., Nevada

First Four Out: Miami (FL), Dayton, Rhode Island, Oklahoma
New In: William and Mary, Illinois, Louisville, UConn
New Out: Dayton, Rhode Island, Northeastern, Utah St.

Big Movers: BYU (Down 4), Purdue (Up 3), Tennessee (Up 3), Richmond (Up 3), Charlotte (Down 3), Michigan State (Down 2), Texas (Down 2), Temple (Down 2), Mizzou (Down 2)

Bids by Conference:
Big East (9): Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pitt, Marquette, USF, Louisville, UConn
ACC (7): Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Florida St., Clemson, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas St, Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma St.
Big 10 (5): Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan St, Illinois
A-10 (4): Temple, Richmond, Xavier, Charlotte
MWC (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
CAA (2): William and Mary, Old Dominion

Regional Top 4:
Syracuse
1. Villanova
2. Wisconsin
3. Georgetown
4. Texas

St. Louis
1. Kansas
2. Syracuse
3. Ohio St.
4. Vanderbilt

Houston
1. Kentucky
2. Duke
3. Pittsburgh
4. Michigan St.

Utah
1. Purdue
2. West Virginia
3. Kansas St.
4. Tennessee

What? Another Seed List this week? Okay!

2010-02-06T00:26:00.003-05:00

So, thanks to reader comments, I went through my last seed list and thought critically about why teams were in their places, reevaluated the ability of teams to actually win certain games, and made some changes. Also, I thought about the autobids, and where they ought to be placed. So, for the first time this year - a full seed list.

Note - the vertical lines indicate where I believe there is a drop-off in quality of team. Also, in the autobids, if the conference is listed, then I believe that as long as one of the favorites wins the conference, they will be on that seed line. In that case, the conference is followed by the team that I believe will win the conference.

1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky Villanova
2: Duke, Texas, Michigan St, BYU
3: G’town, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Kansas St.
4: Temple, Pitt, Ohio St, Purdue
5: Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Baylor, Mizzou
6: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Maryland, Texas A&M
7: Tennessee, Xavier, Marquette, Rhode Island
8: Northern Iowa Georgia Tech, Florida St., Clemson
9: Florida, Butler, Charlotte, UNLV
10. Richmond, USF, Dayton Ole Miss
11: Oklahoma St, ODU, Virginia Tech, Cornell
12: Northeastern, Utah St Pac 10 (Washington), UAB
13: Siena Murray St, Nevada, Kent St
14: Big Sky (Weber St) Summit (Oakland), Sam Houston St. , SoCon (College of Charleston)
15: Pacific, Morgan St, Coastal Carolina Sun Belt (Western Kentucky)
16: A-Sun (Jacksonville) AE (Vermont), Robert Morris, Lehigh SWAC (UAPB)

Major Changes:
*Georgetown drops because of their home loss to USF, which also leads to South Florida making the bracket at the expense of Minnesota.
*Missouri drops because of their home loss to Texas A&M.
*Realized I was giving New Mexico and UNLV too much credit, dropped them a line. BYU is a great win; SDSU is not.
*Maryland beating Florida St. had a big impact as well, pushing Maryland into the next segment of teams.
*Reevaluated Butler, Virginia Tech, Cornell, and surrounding A-10 teams Charlotte, Richmond, and Dayton.
*I now believe Nevada will win the WAC on their home floor, so they are in the bracket, but I also gave Utah St a boost (since I sold last year's similar version short), bumping out St. Mary's.
*Vanderbilt gets bumped up, because I realized I had counted the Vandy-Kentucky game as a loss for both teams. Oops.

How do you seed the autobids?

2010-02-05T23:16:00.002-05:00

Each year I get to the autobids, and am mystified. Last year, out of the 21 bottom autobids (those that would have either been in the last 4 in, or out, had they not won their conference tourney), I missed by 1 line on 10, and by 2 lines on 4. If I had randomly assigned the teams, I could have done just as well. How do I rank these teams, who have woefully little to show in their resumes?

To answer this question, I went to my trusted ally - statistical methodology. I entered data for the past 2 seasons, for those autobids who wouldn't have made the tourney on their own merit. (I did include 07-08 Davidson, and 08-09 Utah State, Temple, and VCU, because I'm not convinced that the committee would have included them had they lost). After running a linear regression with the seed as the dependent variable, here's the Model for Selection Committee Autobid Seeding:

SEED = 12.199 - .036 (Wins - Losses) - .076 (Conference Wins - Losses) -.707 (Elite Wins) + .029 (Non-Elite Top 50 Wins) - .063 (RPI 50-100 Wins) + .011 (Losses outside the Top 100) + .007 (RPI Rank) - .043 (Finish Within Conference) + .112 (Ranking of Conference)

I'd like to take a second to note here that out of all those variables, only the Constant and Conference Rank are significant. That is, for all other variables, there is greater than a 5% chance that that variable actually has the opposite effect on seeding, or does not affect the seeding at all. This tells me that the current amount of data is too little - over the next couple of weeks I will work on adding a few more seasons of data.

I also tried using RPI 100-200 Wins, Road/Neutral Wins - Losses, and Last 12 record, but they were all showing up as "The better the team did in this category, the lower seed they received", which tells me that those categories have little to no predictive value.

However, I did spend a lot of time on this, and I'd like to have something to show for it, so I'll go ahead and analyze it anyway. So what does this model tell us? Well... the obvious. A little guy knocking off an elite team (which autobid teams did only 6 times in the last two seasons) bumps them up about a seed line. A team with an RPI of 110 can be expected to be a seed line above a team with an RPI of 220 (Note that the RPI coefficient is only so low because the variable takes on such large values). If you win the WAC (the 11th ranked conference, by Pomeroy rankings), you can expect that to count for two 2 seed lines above the SWAC champion.

Who you lose to means little - even if all of your losses were to teams with an RPI over 100, you wouldn't expect it to change your seed. 10 losses to teams in the top 100 is worse than 5 losses to teams outside the top 100, simply because they lost that chance to pad their win count. This isn't evidence in support of scheduling crappy teams (I'm looking at you, Brey) - the RPI hit from scheduling all bad teams negates the benefit of piling up wins.

I'm not sure exactly why Non-elite top 50 wins causes seed to go up. I suspect that means that when the committee is seeing teams that they are seeding below the 7th line show up as top 50 wins, they discount those wins (Big difference between Kansas and Siena). Instead of counting them as a "half-win" in the 1-50 column, though, they just disregard them altogether. This may be completely false, but its an interesting theory - I know when I see that one of a team's top 50 wins is against Wichita St., I tend to not give them as much credit.

Summary: To get a better seed, you can A) beat elite teams, B) pile up wins, C) lower your RPI, or D) get a better conference. Sigh. As I said earlier, the obvious. Side Note: D might actually be a case of mixing causal relationships - its possible (and indeed probable) that the same factors that make a team more likely to get a good seed also raise the conference ranking.

A Story about Bulldogs

2010-02-04T17:36:00.003-05:00

On my last seed list, a reader made a comment asking why Butler had dropped three lines. When making a new seed list, I don't look at the old one until after I am finished the new (and sometimes, not even then). While this causes inconsistencies in logic, it also allows me to see if I would apply the same logic a second time through. But, it is odd that Butler dropped so many lines - so I took a look. Here's why Butler dropped.
So, its obvious that to drop as far as they did, I had to have 9 teams pass Butler. 9! Actually, Butler passed a couple of teams, namely North Carolina and UConn. I could talk about those, but that would take another whole post. So, actually, there are 11 teams. Those teams that passed Butler were: Richmond, Charlotte, Dayton, Rhode Island, Xavier, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St, Cornell, Northern Iowa, Virginia Tech, Marquette.
The first thing that should stand out to you is the rising Atlantic 10. 5 of the 11 teams are from the Atlantic 10. Obviously something changed in my line of thinking. Thankfully, I remember what this is. Between the 1st and 2nd seed list, two A-10 teams (Charlotte and Richmond, I think) moved from the 50-100 range to the 1-50 range. This means that each NCAA candidate A-10 team now shows up with 1-3 extra top 50 wins. This is why all the A-10 teams got pushed up. At this point, you may be angry that such a change makes a difference. You have to remember that team RPIs now don’t matter – what they will be at the end of the year does.
Before you argue more about that point, take a look at this: http://www.bbstate.com/schools/TEX/sheet. This is a replica of the team sheet that the NCAA selection committee will see come March (with data as of today, obviously). What do you notice? (Exercise: Actually consider this for a second before proceeding) The thing that jumps out at me is the grid of records. To make any sense of that grid, you have to narrow your focus, and my logic tells me to look at the columns for 1-50 and 50-100. The priority of course goes to the first column, since it is primarily those teams that will appear in the NCAA tournament.
Let’s take a quick look at Butler. Let’s assume they win out (which I think will happen). They should then have three wins in the top 50 – Ohio State, Xavier, and Siena. Siena is getting the benefit of good scheduling, and is not (IMO) actually good. That’s what my friend, who is a huge Saints homer, tells me. When the committee is actually scrutinizing teams, I think that they will discount that win a little. However, it will still count for something. When they look at the Ohio State win, chances are good that someone (hint: the Ohio State AD) will bring up the Evan Turner injury. So that win will be discounted a little. And, while Xavier is a solid tourney team (says he who had them as “last in” a week ago), they aren’t a protected seed. So keep this in mind: Butler’s lone “excellent” win has an asterisk, and besides that they will only have two “good” wins. I believe they will end the season 26-4, (18-0) in conference, 3-3 against the top 50, 3-1 against the top 100, with a great road/neutral record.
Anyhow, 6 left to explain. Let’s go to Cornell and Northern Iowa, the cases with lots of wins, but less substance than Butler. Northern Iowa is a case of me deciding “You know what? You were dumb in your first seed list. UNI is probably going to go 17-1 in the Missouri Valley Conference – a decently tough conference. Moreover, they’ll end the season 27-2. I don’t care about the “2”, but wowwie! 27 is a big number!” (If you can’t tell, I’m mocking the way I think the committee thinks) So I gave UNI a bump. (And, truth be told, 17-1 in the MVC is better than 18-0 in the Horizon). Cornell… I don’t know about them. They’re going to go 14-0 in the Ivy League. But they have no good wins, just the “good loss” against Kansas. However, that Kansas game did show that they could potentially beat a #1 seed – something the committee likes out of their 9-13 lines. It makes the tourney more interesting. And on that strength, the sportswriters have voted them into the top 25. If the sportswriters see it some way, chances are good the committee will see it similarly. I actually don’t like Cornell up where they are, but I could see it happening.
Virginia Tech and Marquette: Teams I am giving too much credit because of high Pomeroy rankings, despite being wildly inconsistent. Or am I? Marquette fits the role of Boston College last year, (bad losses + a few top wins), and they’ve already stolen a few against good opponents. But I notably bumped them up 4 seed lines in a WEEK. THAT is more shocking than dropping Butler. Wait… they did win a road game against UConn, which increased my faith in their ability to win big games. Thus, I think they take down both Pitt and Louisville, increasing their top 50 wins to 5. Marquette is a case that I’m willing to accept. However, I am certainly giving VT too much credit, operating under the delusion that they can win all three of Wake Forest, Clemson, and Maryland. Its possible, but not likely. What changed in the last week? They added a surprise conference win (at Virginia), which made me believe they could get to 9-7. Count VT in my “idiot” column (and watch them go on to win all three of those games, just to spite me). However, be sure that when predicting the rest of the games in the year for the next seed list I will pay more attention to consistency of a team.

Two left, and they are both are Big 12. Hmm… Okie State sure didn’t do anything to make their resume better – that Kansas St. win was already there. I think I convinced myself this week that winning at Kansas State made up for their other ills, something I didn’t do the first week. Now, I prefer the way I saw it the first time. Another idiot move. Texas A&M… prior to last night, they were and idiot move. However, their surprise win over Missouri puts them at that 5 top 50 win mark. Just an observation – teams with 1-3 wins over the top 50 rpi are bubblicious. Once they hit 4, its very rare for them to miss. 5? Forgetaboutit.

So there you go - 7 good reasons to change my mind on a team, 2 debatable but acceptable reasons, and 2 idiot reasons. Hopefully by the time the tourney rolls around, there will be fewer of the "idiot" reasonings. However, after reflecting a bit, I think that Butler will probably end up as a 9.

Seed List #2

2010-02-02T10:58:00.004-05:00

I apologize that this is about two days late. However, if you've been paying attention to my lack of posting, you'll probably surmise that A) I'm in this for myself, and B) I've been busy.

Anyhow: I've been hearing people talk about how large the bubble is, and I don't buy it. The way I see it, there are only about 10-15 teams right now that are even close to making the tournament. Of course, this is the time of year that everyone starts their annual "race to not make the tournament."

1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Georgetown
2: Duke, Villanova, Texas, Michigan St.
3: Brigham Young, West Virginia, Kansas St, Temple
4: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Missouri
5: Ohio St, Purdue, Baylor, Wake Forest
6: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Florida St, Tennessee
7: Xavier, Marquette, Maryland, URI
8: Clemson, Georgia Tech, UNI, UNLV
9: Texas A&M, Richmond, Cornell, Florida
10: Charlotte, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St., Dayton
11: Butler, Ole Miss, ODU, St. Mary’s
12: Northeastern, Louisville, Utah St, Cal
13: UAB, Siena

First Five Out: William & Mary, Connecticut, North Carolina, Miami, VCU

Regional Top 4:
Syracuse:
1. Georgetown
2. Duke
3. Kansas St.
4. New Mexico

St. Louis
1. Kansas
2. Villanova
3. Temple
4. Pitt

Houston
1. Kentucky
2. Texas
3. West Virginia
4. Wisconsin

Utah
1. Syracuse
2. Michigan St
3. BYU
4. Missouri

Bids By Conference:

ACC (7): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida St, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Big XII (7): Kansas, Texas, Kansas St, Mizzou, Baylor, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M
Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville
Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Xavier, Charlotte, Richmond, Rhode Island, Dayton
SEC (5): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Ole Miss
Big 10 (4): Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Purdue
MWC (3): BYU, UNLV, New Mexico
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
CAA (2): Old Dominion, Northeastern

First Seed List of 2010

2010-01-25T06:11:00.006-05:00

I'm tempted not to post this, since there are several glaring flaws. However, I've spent the majority of the past 4 hours on it, plus more time during the day on the Sunday. Its 6:30 AM - I think I'll just post it, and laugh at how ridiculous it it is later.

Disclaimer: This does not reflect where teams are now, but where I believe they will be at the end of this year.

1: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Texas (1)
2: Duke, G’town (2), Villanova (3), Wisconsin
3: West Virginia (4), Pittsburgh (5), Michigan St. (6), Kansas St. (7)
4: BYU, Ohio St. (8), Purdue (9), Wake Forest (10)
5: Temple, Mizzou (11), UNM (12), Clemson (13)
6: Tennessee (14), Vanderbilt (15), Baylor (16), Gonzaga
7: Georgia Tech (17), Florida (18), Florida St (19), UConn (20)
8: North Carolina (21), Maryland (22), UNLV (23), Butler
9: TAMU (24), Richmond (25), UNI, Mississippi St (26)
10: Utah St, Miami (27), Dayton (28), W&M
11: Oklahoma St (29), Marquette (30), Old Dominion(31) UAB
12: Virginia Tech (32), Ole Miss (33), Xavier (34), Cal

First Five Out: Cincinnati, Northeastern, St. Mary's, Washington, Seton Hall

By Conference:
ACC (9): Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida St, Maryland, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina
A-10 (5): Temple, Richmond, Dayton, Xavier
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Texas, Kansas St., Mizzou, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St
Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt, Connecticut, Marquette
Big 10 (4): Wisconsin, Michigan St, Purdue, Ohio St
CAA (2): William & Mary, Old Dominion
SEC (6): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi St, Ole Miss

Regional Top 4s
Northeast:
1: Texas
2: Duke
3: West Virginia
4: Purdue

Midwest:
1: Kentucky
2: Georgetown
3: Kansas St.
4: Wake Forest

South:
1: Kansas
2: Villanova
3: Michigan St.
4: Ohio St.

West:
1: Syracuse
2: Wisconsin
3: Pittsburgh
4: BYU

01/16 - The Weekend Ahead

2010-01-16T00:35:00.004-05:00

So - there are two ways of doing this. I can list every game that slightly matters; or I can list the ones that REALLY matter.

Syracuse @ West Virginia - The winner of this game puts themselves in the driver's seat for a one seed.

Wisconsin @ Ohio St. - Wiscy has some great wins at the Kohl Center - but one on the road would go a long way in pushing them up the seed list.

Dayton @ Xavier - I doubt this one has even touched your radar, but Xavier, perennial A-10 powerhouse, is in critical condition. Consider this - their best win is Cincinnati. St. John's has a win against Cincinnati, and another against Temple, to boot. Point is - Xavier needs this badly.

Purdue @ Northwestern - As mentioned previously, Northwestern's last shot to get a home win against an elite team. If they don't pick this up, their odds of making the tournament become fairly long.

Cal @ Washington - For control of the Pac-10... whatever thats worth.

ALL ACC GAMES - See previous post - that league is a free-for-all right now

01/15 - Looking behind

2010-01-15T23:34:00.004-05:00

Obviously, I didn't have a post Monday setting up this week's games, but whatever. I've decided that I'm just going to mention 5 major storylines or games from the past four days:

5. Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma St.
You can shout "rivalry game" at me all you want - if you are a tournament team, you should NOT be losing to Oklahoma this year. The Sooners have been pretty bad all year. So, if you're Oklahoma State, and you've got nothing going for you except the fact that your losses aren't too bad, and they haven't piled up too much... well, you just don't want to lose here.

4. Wisconsin over Northwestern
It seems like Northwestern, sitting at 12-4, is in decent shape for a tournament bid. But a deeper look shows that their best win is Notre Dame on a somewhat neutral court. They really need to beat one of the elite Big Ten teams to feel safe come selection Sunday. Out of the four (I'm still on the fence on Minnesota), this makes the second they've lost to at home. Not being able to win at home says bad things about their chances of winning those games on the road. Moreover, they don't get to play OSU at home - so their last chance at an elite at home is tomorrow.

3. Pitt defeats Connecticut; Clemson defeats UNC
There are a couple of reasons why these games are important. First, you have two teams that have been overrated throughout the season, finally getting their comeuppance. Clemson's beatdown showed that the previously exposed Tarheel flaws were actually somewhat serious, while yet another loss means that the best Huskie win is either William and Mary, Harvard, Notre Dame, or Seton Hall. On another level, who are these victors? This isn't the Pitt that fell pathetically to the Hoosiers, or the Tigers that needed a flubbed inbounds play to beat South Carolina State! Those two are better than I expected - I wonder how high their ceiling is.

2. Virginia over Georgia Tech; Va Tech over Miami (FL); NC State over Florida St.

What has caused a doomsday two-bid scenario in the Pac-10 is a cause for celebration in the ACC. The three bottom teams in league defeat three teams near the top - but since the three losing teams have some semblance of legitimacy, the ACC is in a situation where ALL teams - even the bumbling Wolfpack - still have a good shot at earning a bid.

1. Kentucky wallops Florida in Gainesville

This was Kentucky's best shot at losing for the rest of the year. Sure, they'll probably drop a game somewhere. But I doubt they'll lose more than one. Winning this one shows that they're in good shape for a one seed.

Other Notable Results:
Radford over Coastal Carolina
Ohio State over Purdue in W. Lafayette
Villanova defeats Louisville

2010 means... time to start again?

2010-01-12T17:29:00.003-05:00

I suppose I'm a little slow getting to the game this year. I mean, its already the conference season. The year is already about 1/3 over. Any potential readers that I gained last year are long gone. So what am I doing here?

To be honest, I was not planning on restarting this site. Despite my 65/65 effort of last year, the amount of time spent working on this site had an adverse effect on my school work. I had overcommitted myself, and needed to get rid of something. Moreover, I had been able to watch so few games last year, that I was having to rely almost entirely on statistics to inform my decisions. Again, what am I doing here?

Despite my resolution to get away from college basketball, I couldn't. When ESPN did their 24 hours of basketball, I found myself watching UCLA fall to CSU-Fullerton, and then watching the St. Mary's game. I fell asleep at the television for the Northern Colorado game. As the season progressed, I found myself watching more and more games. Over the Christmas holiday, I began to wonder how likely my beloved Irish were to make the tournament (unlikely). I began to scrutinize the cases of the various teams. I became hooked again. With the amount of time I was putting in for my personal knowledge, the time doing spent doing analysis would not add that much more time.

So how will this work? Sunday will be the day for the new seed lists - probably after the Sunday games are over, but earlier if I feel that they won't have a major impact. I'll mention the surprise or big games. If I have time, I'll talk about the hardest seeding decisions I had to make that day. Monday I will list the projected impact games for the next Monday through Friday period. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, I'm not sure how much time I'll have, but will be more focused on individual teams rather than the big picture. The blog may or may not get updated those days. Friday will be a review of the past week, and a preview of the weekend ahead. Saturday will depend on whether I'm busy on that day or not.

Additionally, some of my friends and I have begun to make plans for a combined college basketball analysis site. We still haven't worked out the details, so I'll let you know how that goes.

Selection Show Live Blog

2009-03-15T16:44:00.010-05:00

6:41 - But only 297 points - same as last year.

6:38 - 65/65! 65/65!

6:30 - Syracuse or Illinois as the 3? Also, SMC is out - Gonzaga hasn't shown up yet.

6:21 - Memphis in the west? Also, I would have swapped Washington and Purdue. Also, Cal was not held accountable for 150+ losses. Also, I didn't mention, but Siena as a 9 shocked me. As did Utah as a 5.

6:17 - ARIZONA!

6:01 - I was scared that they were going to commercial break before showing us all the #1s. 3 BIG EAST. Also, Joe Lunardi conspiracy theory dispelled?

5:56 - Calipari is stupid. You aren't getting a one. And you aren't fooling anyone by saying "who me? Complain?"

5:48 - Here we go. I made my bracket over on the NCAA website - I had to swap Clemson and UCLA, and Minnesota and Marquette. By the way, Arizona is in. I meant in.

FINAL Seed List

2009-03-15T15:29:00.004-05:00

1: North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt, Connecticut
2: Michigan St, Memphis, Oklahoma, Duke
3: Villanova, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois
4: Syracuse, Florida St, Wake Forest, Purdue
5: Xavier, Washington, Arizona St, Texas
6: West Virginia, Clemson, UCLA, Gonzaga
7: Ohio St, Butler, BYU, Minnesota
8: Oklahoma St, Marquette, Tennessee, Utah
9: Michigan, Texas A&M, California, LSU
10: Arizona, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Boston College
11: Maryland, Siena, Dayton, Utah St.
12: Temple, Cleveland St, Mississippi St, Western Kentucky
13: Northern Iowa, Virginia Commonwealth, North Dakota St, Portland St.
14: Akron, Radford, Chattanooga, Binghamton
15: Morgan St, Stephen F. Austin, Cal State - Northridge, American
16: E. Tennessee St, Robert Morris, Cornell, Morehead St, Alabama St.

First Four Out: Penn St, Northwestern, Baylor, Creighton

I'm back for the big finish

2009-03-15T12:15:00.041-05:00

After a month long hiatus, I'm back with a liveblog of my Selection Sunday. I will actually post a bracket.

4:41 - As I type up the post, Texas starts to slide. A little... no, they stay on the 5 line.

4:24 - Fine, Boston College and Southern Cal also on the 10 line. (Almost forgot about USC again) Since overall seed only matters for the top 16, and I did the bottom 5 (+2) lines the other day, I just have to insert Mississippi St. in.

4:19 - Arizona and Wisconsin on the 10 line. Hear me Joe?? ARIZONA ON THE 10 LINE.

4:18 - Check that, losses make a difference if teams are close. Screw you, Utah St.

4:16 - Fine, losses does make a slight difference. LSU on the 9 line.

4:13 - BC is not, neither is Maryland. Nor Wisconsin. Which means Cal is. So last spot on the 9 line goes to Arizona or LSU.

4:11 - So is Texas A&M.

4:07 - Michigan is on the 9 line

4:04 - Back to the 9 line.

4:03 - Crap, finally remembered lunch. Also, Arizona has a better resume this year than last.

3:54 - Teams that go 5-11 in conference don't get at-larges. So MY last conflict is Dayton vs. Penn St. Which I announced to my friend 5 minutes wasn't a conflict, because Dayton was so much better. Yea, looking again, Dayton is going to beat out Penn St. Time to finish seeding.

3:50 - Northwestern is out, because they didn't schedule anyone. Creighton is out because they suck AND didn't schedule anyone. Last 12 games is not a reason to put a mid-major in.

3:48 - I revisited Arizona. I'm confident that they will be in over Wisconsin. End of that discussion.

3:45 - Oops, I forgot Southern Cal. So thats 1 spot left for the five mentioned.

3:40 - In reality, I have 3 spots for 6 teams - Creighton, Penn St, Northwestern, Maryland, Dayton, Baylor. Okay, you're right, Maryland is in - few bad losses with a decent scheduling job.

3:36 - So Lunardi says Minnesota is a last 4 in. So I'm going to take a look at them in a bit. I just reconfirmed that SMC, Auburn, VT, UNLV, SDSU are all out. Therefore, I am down to 13 teams for 10 spots.

3:28 - Utah takes that last spot. I'm going to go the bubble teams now. Out of the 33 teams remaining, 23 are auto bids. So the last 10 spots are going to one of 18 teams.

3:27.5 - Narrowed to Utah vs. Texas A&M
3:27 - If you can't remember, the teams in the running for the last 8 seed - Utah, BC, TAMU, Cal, LSU.

3:24 - Marquette is on the 8 line, and since the lost by 12 on a neutral court to Tennessee, who is in the discussion, Tennessee is ALSO on the 8 line. First SEC team - 8.

3:21 - Oklahoma St. is on the 8 line. Yep. The same Cowboys who were a bubble team just a bit ago.

3:17 - The clock in the SEC championship game has been at 9 seconds for too long. It should be at 5. Arizona and Michigan are the same team, and neither will be wearing white.

3:14 - Onto the 8 line. Teams that will be looked at: A&M, Cal, Marquette, BC, LSU, Oklahoma St, Tennessee, Utah, Arizona, Michigan

3:09 - I'm taking Minnesota. I just talked my friend into giving Minnesota yellow jerseys for the tourney.

3:07 - So is BYU. The final spot is on the 7 line is going to Minnesota, Cal, or Texas A&M

3:01 - Butler and Ohio St. are on the 7 line.

2:54 - 6 line - West Virginia, Gonzaga, UCLA, Clemson. My friend knocked some sense into me with respect to Clemson. 27 point win over Duke, win at Illinois, 7-4 Road record.

2:53 - UCLA, Ohio St, West Virginia, Minnesota, Gonzaga are vying for the 6 line.

2:43 - #20 - Washington, because they won the Pac-10

2:40 - #18 - Xavier, #19 - Arizona St

2:37 - #17 - Texas. The other ones in consideration for the 5 line - ASU, Gonzaga, XU, Washington, Minnesota

2:23 - We just played "Guess how many top 100 games Penn St. and Northwestern scheduled out of conference" Answer: 2. Penn St. lost to URI and Temple, Northwestern beat FSU and lost at Butler.

2:16 - Texas just has too many questionable losses. #15 - Wake Forest #16 - Purdue. Wake was the easy one.

2:11 - Gonzaga and Arizona St are gone because they don't have any big wins, while the other 4 have 2.

2:09 - Here are the candidates for the last two spots in the top 16: Purdue, ASU, Xavier, Wake, Gonzaga, Texas

2:05 - #13 Syracuse, #14 - Florida St

2:03 - #10 - Kansas #11 - Mizzou #12 Illinois

1:57 - Nova is the only thing I'm sure of on the 3 line. Lunardi's bracket has not changed since midnight (conspiracy theory tracking here).

1:50 - Just looked at the committee members. Syracuse = Florida St. Nova is definitely above Illinois

1:44 - Teams in consideration for 3s - Mizzou, Kansas, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Florida St, Nova, Illinois, Wake Forest. My friend - "Syracuse has more wins than anyone in this conversation... except for... oh wait, pretty much everyone"

1:42 - #5 - Michigan St, #6 - Memphis #7 - Oklahoma #8 - Duke. Easier then the 1 seed discussion.

1:34 - Order of 1 seeds: UNC, L'ville, Pitt, UConn. Friend shocked by Michigan State's 13 wins against the top 50. Talk about 2 seeds.

1:30 - I tried to spark discussion about UNC only have 5 top 50 wins. It failed when I looked at the 35 point win basically at Michigan St.

1:25: Long discussion of UConn vs. Memphis. The non-cons decided it: RPI top 100 in NonCon - UConn = 6-0, Memphis = 7-3. UConn gets it.

1:20 - Others in the discussion: UConn, Michigan St, North Carolina, Pitt, Memphis. Check that, Memphis is not a one seed, since their best win is TENNESSEE. Also, South Carolina just got discarded from the bubble pool, once we realized that they have 0 top 50 RPI wins. Florida follows with only 1.

1:17, 5 seconds - Louisville is a one seed. No discussion (well, some, but they are pretty obvious).

1:17 - Sitting in front of the SEC Championship, with lots of dead trees in my lap. Friend with me to provide argument. First order of business - one seed confirmation.

Seed List needed an update

2009-02-05T10:06:00.002-05:00

Too many changes recently to not make this update:

1: Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Michigan St.
2: Marquette, Oklahoma, Clemson, Duke
3: Xavier, Illinois, Gonzaga, Louisville
4: Arizona St., West Virginia, Ohio St., Villanova
5: Butler, Syracuse, Memphis, California
6: Wake Forest, Penn St., Georgetown, Missouri
7: Kansas, Tennessee, Purdue, Washington
8: Florida, Davidson, Texas, Minnesota
9: UCLA, Kentucky, Baylor, Utah St.
10: Dayton, Michigan, BYU, UNLV
11: Southern Cal, Miami (FL), Utah, Texas A&M
12: Notre Dame, Oklahoma St, Maryland, Siena
13: Buffalo, Northeastern, Northern Iowa, WKU
14: VMI, Vermont, American, Cornell
15: North Dakota St, Murray St, Stephen F. Austin, Belmont
16:CSU-Northridge, Robert Morris, Alabama St, Play-in (Weber St, Morgan St)

Well, at least I don't have to worry about finding my way to a tournament game this year...

2009-02-04T23:40:00.003-05:00

To address the comments about my last Bracket (and the shame associated):

Connecticut was not a #1 because I expected them to lose to Louisville that night. Which they didn't. And now, they are projected as the top overall seed.

Notre Dame was an 8 because I expected them to beat Louisville, Villanova, Providence, and Cincinnati. Of course, since we dropped the easy one of those four, I now think they'll only beat Louisville out of that group, and that won't keep them in the tournament.

Penn St. - #6 is probably a bit on the high side. 7 or 8 is probably more accurate.

Tennessee was expected to lose at Arkansas. Then I changed my mind shortly after I posted the seed list. And then they did not lose.

I'll try to post an updated bracket... Sunday. Yea, lets go with that.

Bracketbusters (For real)

2009-02-02T20:45:00.005-05:00

Here is the line-up of televised bracketbuster matchups (of which there are 11, not 13... stupid me).

Friday:
VCU @ Nevada - Huzzah for the heroes of yesteryear. Oh, alright, these two are still decent, but they still won't have any meaningful impact on this year's tourney (mainly because they won't be in it).

Illinois St. @ Niagara - I guess I can see why this matchup seemed appealing. Illinois St. was big news for the amount of time they went undefeated, and is still #2 in conference. This should be a good preview of the UNI-Siena game.

Saturday:
Butler @ Davidson - Obvious matchup is obvious to everyone not in Loudonville.

Northern Iowa @ Siena - In retrospect, putting the top team from the MVC here makes more sense than the top team from the CAA. Poor Siena though - if only they could make outside shots.

Utah St. @ St. Mary’s - As predicted, although if you remember I was set to put Utah St. on a cross-country flight until I was swayed by a commenter. I suppose I should remember that people on the East Coast don't give much respect to teams on the other side of the country.

Boise St. @ Portland St. - I figured that neither of these teams would get much respect. I still don't expect them to make it on the 2.

Buffalo @ Vermont - Top MAC team + top America East team. Thats why these two are in this game.

Northeastern @ Wright St. - Northeastern gets a meh matchup, despite being in great position to win the CAA.

UW-Green Bay @ Long Beach St. - Having the second team from the Horizon on TV isn't that surprising, but I didn't have LBSU anywhere near a prime slot.

George Mason @ Creighton - I picked the wrong CAA team for this one - I suppose ESPN is banking on George Mason's Final Four popularity continuing.

Miami (OH) @ Evansville - As I said earlier - Evansville made the TV slot because they were news earlier in the year, supposedly being this year's Drake.

New Seed List (Finally)

2009-02-02T12:48:00.004-05:00

Perhaps I should bite my tongue more often. With two unfortunate losses, Wake Forest has dropped off of the one seed line, and Oklahoma has taken that spot. Lots of movement elsewhere – my Irish have dropped to the eight line, and that’s probably the best they can fair. Memphis has proved me wrong, and jumps up to the five line. They could climb higher, if they go undefeated in conference. Penn State’s shocker in Lansing has forced me to consider that they may be among the best in the Big 10, earning them a spot on the six line. Meanwhile, the top SEC team (Tennessee) has been pushed down to the eight line. This is what happens when you don’t win games. Also, an incredible six Big East teams on the top four seed lines. This is what happens when none of your losses are counted as "bad".

1: North Carolina, Duke, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma
2: Connecticut, Marquette, Michigan St, Wake Forest
3: Butler, Xavier, Louisville, West Virginia
4: Gonzaga, Clemson, Illinois, Syracuse
5: Ohio St, Memphis, Georgetown, California
6: Arizona St, Villanova, Penn St, Kansas
7: Texas, Baylor, Purdue, Washington
8: Tennessee, Florida, Davidson, Notre Dame
9: Missouri, Minnesota, Kentucky, UNLV
10: Utah St., Dayton, Michigan, UCLA
11: BYU, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M, Kansas St
12: Southern Cal, Maryland, LSU, Siena
13: Buffalo, Northeastern, Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky
14: VMI, Vermont, American, Cornell
15: North Dakota St, Murray St, Stephen F. Austin, Belmont
16: Cal State – Northridge, Robert Morris, Alabama St, Weber St vs. Morgan St.

First Five Out: Utah, Siena (at-large), South Carolina, Virginia Tech, UAB
Next Four Out: Northwestern, San Diego St, Miami (FL), Arizona, Providence

Moving In: Washington, Dayton, LSU, Southern Cal
Moving Out: Miami (FL), St. Mary's, Florida St, Wisconsin, Utah
Moving Up: Connecticut, West Virginia, Memphis
Moving Down: Georgetown, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Kentucky, Oklahoma St,

Bracket: Tonight

Bracketbusters to be released later today

2009-02-02T04:32:00.002-05:00

So, I was making up my seed list, and realized that the Bracketbuster line-up would be set sometime later today. So, here is my best guess as to the televised match-ups (even if 360 games really shouldn't count).

ESPN2
Butler @ Davidson - In my mind, a no-brainer. These two are the only two in the pool that are locks for the tournament. Besides, ESPN knows that everyone knows these two are good.

Northeastern @ Siena - I was going to put Utah St. as the visiting team here, but then I read my comments. The anonymous reader made a pretty persuasive argument as to why this should be the match-up. Additionally, Utah St isn't the most exciting team in the minds of east-coasters, and I can imagine that there may be some pressure to not have teams fly cross-country.

Utah St. @ St. Mary's - An intriguing West Coast match-up, and again a match that would save on some travel costs. Both teams are right on the bubble, but St. Mary's has because notably less impressive with the loss of Patty Mills. While I'm sure Utah St. would have liked a better opponent, a win at Moraga will still give them some boost.

VCU @ Creighton - A battle of yesterday's darlings - thats why this game makes it onto the premier list. Sure, VCU was supposed to be good this year, but right now they are all but assured of finishing third in the CAA. Creighton was also supposed to be fairly good, but are three back of Northern Iowa in the Valley. Basically, a meaningless game.

George Mason @ Niagara - Another meaningless matchup, that will be televised instead of a meaningful one. Even the most casual basketball fan knows about George Mason, and you can bet that ESPN wants them in the line-up. As for their opponent - at least in the Northeast, people probably know Niagara better than Vermont, Wright St, or Evansville.

Cleveland St. @ Evansville - Whats that you say? Cleveland St. has no shot of making the tournament as an at-large, despite their earlier win at Syracuse? Evansville's "magical" season has proven to be a fraud? With all the prominent teams gone, ESPN will probably try to woo casual viewers with some teams that made the news earlier in the season.

ESPNU
Northern Iowa @ Vermont
Miami (OH) @ Wright St.
North Dakota St. @ Portland St.
Illinois St. @ New Mexico St.
Buffalo @ Drake

ESPN360
Wisconsin-Green Bay @ Fairfield
Bradley @ Nevada

So, I should have a seed list up by noon, and I'll also post after the Bracketbuster matchups are released.

Getting on Track

2009-01-29T17:12:00.003-05:00

I apologize for my absence over the past few days. Actually, it has been nearly a week since I last did anything substantial. I should note a few headlines from this past week.

No More Undefeateds: Wake Forest loses to Virginia Tech

Home Streaks End: Notre Dame and Tennessee lose #1 and #2 longest win streaks, and then drop consecutive home games. Kansas now has the longest home winning streak at 35. Davidson and Utah St. are tied for second, with 27

Top Teams Tumble: Since last Wednesday, there have been nine top teams that have taken losses to teams below their level. Georgetown, once thought to be the best team in the Big East, has taken a fall with four straight losses, including games at Cincinnati and Seton Hall. Syracuse is on a three game slide, losing last night at Providence. Pittsburgh’s offending loss isn’t too bad – 10 points at Villanova. In the ACC, Miami (FL) lost to lower-tier ACC teams Virginia Tech and NC St., and Wake Forest got caught looking ahead by that same Hokie team. Cal represents the Pac-10 with a home loss to the Beavers. Finally, the SEC has three on the list: Tennessee losing consecutive home games to Memphis and LSU, and Kentucky getting beat by Ole Miss

Making Some Noise: A few perennial cellar-dwellers rattled some cages this week. Virginia Tech improved to 4-1 in conference by going on the road to knock off Miami and #1 Wake Forest. Oregon St. also took their show on the road, sweeping the Bay Area teams. Providence is making a case for the tournament – at 6-2 in conference, they are almost certain to get talked about in March, and that win over Syracuse finally gives them something to brag about.

Mid-Majors to Mention: I’ll spare you more hype of Butler and Davidson (which will presumably be the highlight of Bracketbusters). I’ll also you spare you from hearing about Gonzaga, who you’ve heard about for about a decade, and VMI, who I’ve mentioned many times before. So who’s left?

Disappointing Siena has re-asserted themselves over the MAAC, garnering a 3 game lead with eight remaining. If they don’t trip up, and get a decent Bracketbuster draw, they could be sitting on the 12 line again in March. However, they may have to play host to 19-1 Utah St. , who is currently 7-0 in the WAC. Again, if they can avoid losing, they too could be on the 12 line in March. Staying on the left coast, St. Mary’s returns to the discussion with an 18-1 record. The lone blemish was a neutral court loss to UTEP. Tonight the Gaels travel to Spokane to face Gonzaga. Even with a pair of losses to GU, St. Mary's should make the tournament again.
So you thought VCU or George Mason would run away with the CAA? Northeastern changed with a win at VCU yesterday, putting themselves in prime position to win the regular season crown. Finally, Northern Iowa has risen above the muck to take over in the Valley. This is a lot more surprising than it should be. In the bruising, slow-down world of the Valley, having a starter 5 INCHES TALLER than any other conference starter can’t hurt.

So, I will do a bracket tomorrow. So look for it.

Change in Posting Philosophy

2009-01-24T02:47:00.002-05:00

So, with the start of the new semester, I thought I'd have enough time to really keep up with the consistent but demanding schedule I had put before me. I was wrong. There is no use in having the vast majority of my posts be a summary of the day's action if I am not able to get it out consistently - no one would come to read.

Thus, I will start posting mainly just brackets, and clarification of my thoughts regarding the bracket.

To those who question my logic of having UConn as a 5 seed - first, recall that I am projecting out to the end of the season. Then answer the question - who are they going to beat? I currently see them going 12-6 in conference, including getting swept by Pitt. Of those twelve wins, seven are going to be against the bottom six teams in the league. Of the remaining five, I consider two of them to be "signature" wins - West Virginia and Syracuse (and WVU is debatable). The win in Seattle was really nice, but I believe that Gonzaga's loss streak (especially including Portland St.) really hurt their credibility, so I'm not too keen on calling them a signature win. UConn will probably also end up with around a .500 record against the top 50 in RPI. The lack of signature wins plus nothing overly spectacular results in a five seed.

That said, they should be a four. I have Clemson way overrated, and I'm not sure why.

Also, with regards to Maryland vs. Arkansas - most of Maryland's conference losses will still be able to be grouped in the "mediocre but not bad column". Arkansas has no such luxury.

Happy basketball watching!

New Seed List

2009-01-21T04:24:00.002-05:00

Finally got this one completed.

1: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Duke
2: Georgetown, Oklahoma, Butler, Michigan St.
3: Xavier, Marquette, Clemson, Illinois
4: Ohio St, Syracuse, Tennessee, Louisville
5: Connecticut, Texas, Gonzaga, Notre Dame
6: Arizona St, West Virginia, Kentucky, Villanova
7: Kansas, California, Baylor, Purdue
8: Minnesota, Florida, UCLA, Oklahoma St
9: Missouri, Brigham Young, Miami (FL), Utah St.
10: Davidson, St. Mary's, Maryland, Michigan
11: UNLV, Texas A&M, Kansas St., Florida St.
12: Utah, Memphis, Wisconsin, Siena
13: Western Kentucky, Virginia Commonwealth, Northern Iowa, Miami (OH)
14: VMI, Portland St, Cornell, North Dakota St.
15: Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, American, Long Beach St.
16: Jacksonville, Morgan St, Alabama St, Austin Peay vs. Robert Morris

Last Four Out: South Carolina, Penn St, Dayton, Washington
Next Four Out: Providence, Rhode Island, Stanford, College of Charleston

Big Movers: Louisville, Connecticut, Arizona St, Kentucky, Purdue, UCLA, Michigan

Seeds by Conference
Big East: 9
Big XII: 8
ACC: 7
Big 10: 7
SEC: 3
Pac-10: 3
MWC: 3
WCC: 2

Bracket: Maybe up soon?

Weekend Wrap, ACC vs. Big East, and Tonight's (weak) Lineup

2009-01-20T14:24:00.002-05:00

So, what has happened over the past three days, and what do we have to look forward to?

Wake Forest 78, @Clemson 68:
Wow! Wake is for real! I count maybe one opportunity for them to lose – at Cameron Indoor. However, a friend of mine who is an expert on the ACC claims that Duke has no shot against Wake, and that they match-up poorly. This is a very good team. Don’t discount Clemson, though – this is still at top 15 team.

@Louisville 69, Pittsburgh 63:
Apparently, the Cardinals finally decided to show up, first against Notre Dame, and then again against Pittsburgh. This, combined with the above Wake win, drops Pitt from #1 overall. As I haven’t exhaustively looked through teams, I can’t tell you where I’d put Louisville – but expect them to rise.

@Duke 76, Georgetown 71:
This game was a blow to those who claim that the Big East was the dominant conference in the land. Moreover, it probably knocks Georgetown off the one line, and might lift Duke as a THIRD ACC team (3!!). 2005 was the last time that two teams from the same conference made the one line, an event that has happened eight times since the advent of the 64-team tournament. NEVER have three teams from the same conference made it as a one seed, though in 2005 the third ACC team was a two seed. So we may be in for a history making year.

@New Mexico 81, Brigham Young 62:
Oh no! BYU lost! I’m… not at all shocked. Road teams losing is what happens in the Mountain West, and why four teams in might have been a little unreasonable.

@ Tennessee 82, South Carolina 79:
The Vols are having a rough start to their conference season, and I am not at all confident that they can win enough games to land in those top four seed lines.

@Northwestern 74, Minnesota 65:
Northwestern is on the wrong side of the bubble, but winning games like this is the best way to work their way back.

Ohio St. 65, @Michigan 58:
Michigan’s season is going down the tubes, very slowly. I mean, how many of their remaining games do you feel confident they can win after this? 3? If this Michigan team goes 6-12, I don’t think they will make the tournament. Also, I’m sure the Buckeyes feel good about getting a legitimate road win.

@Michigan St. 63, Illinois 57
Not as surprising as the above. I mean, Michigan St. is far and away the class of this conference, and they should win every game at home this year.

Arizona St 61, @UCLA 58, @Southern Cal 65, Arizona 64; @Stanford 75, Cal 69:
Go figure. Arizona St. IS the class of this conference, and the loss to USC was just a hiccup. Speaking of USC – they could still make the tournament. They just have to do really well the rest of this year. I don’t think so, either.

@Mississippi St. 73, Vanderbilt 66:
3-0 in conference, but still no major wins. Mississippi St. could make the tournament, but they need to win some big games first.

@Syracuse 93, Notre Dame 74:
Still not surprised. This reminded me a lot of last year’s game at Marquette – you know, the one where they got owned? The difference is they don’t get a home game to pay them back this time.

@Virginia Tech 79, Boston College 71:
Boston College, never change. Your ability to slay the dreaded UNC Dragon, and then go on a 0-4 run amuses me greatly. And the more they lose, the worse it looks for UNC. Like, I would consider it within the realm of possibility for the Tarheels to get a #2 seed.

@Nebraska 73, Kansas St. 51:
Hooray Cornhuskers. You have little to no shot of making the tournament (honestly), and yet you still are destroying teams at home. Five points, and they’d be a lock for the tournament. Anyhow, this hurts Kansas St. a little, but this was to be expected.

@Massachusetts 79, Temple 75:
Really, the Owls were on tenuous ground before this, and Massachusetts is a bad loss. They basically need to win out to make it to the tournament.

Missouri Valley:
I really, really, really don’t understand this conference. At least only their auto-bid winner will be in.

The ACC is now 9-6 against the Big East, with one game remaining – Duke vs. St. John’s. Let’s take a look at those games.

ACC Victories
Duke 76, Georgetown 67 - The crown jewel of the ACC in the argument. +2 ACC
North Carolina 102, Notre Dame 87 – Looked a lot better at the time. +1 ACC
Florida St 58, Cincy 47 – Huge win at Cincinnati, exposing the Bearcats. +1 ACC
Boston College 81, Providence 76 – Perhaps BC’s second-best win. +1 ACC.
Virginia 77, South Florida 75 – Mostly Irrelevant. +.5 ACC
Virginia Tech 81, St. John’s 67 – Mostly Irrelevant. +.5 ACC
BC 82, St. John’s 70 – Irrelevant. +0
North Carolina 97, Rutgers 75 – Irrelevant. +0
Miami (FL) 70, St. John’s 56 – Irrelevant. +0

Big East Victories
Connecticut 76, Miami 63 – The crown jewel of the Big East camp? +1 Big East
Marquette 68, NC St. 65 – I don’t know what to call this game. Shouldn’t have been this close. +.5 ACC.
Syracuse 73, Virginia 70 – At Syracuse, Virginia should not be this close. +1 ACC.
Pittsburgh 56, Florida St 48 – Good win for Pitt. +1 Big East
Seton Hall 77, Virginia Tech 75 – Mostly Irrelevant. +.5 Big East
Georgetown 75, Maryland 48 – Irrelevant. +0

So, by my count, 6.5 ACC, 2.5 Big East. Despite being a Big East homer, I’ll say that the ACC is the better conference.

So whats happening tonight?

Tuesday, January 20
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt:
The Vols want a big road win to establish legitimacy. The Commodores want a win over a top to establish… anything.

Michigan @ Penn St.
After that home loss to the rival Buckeyes, Michigan has to travel to the upstart Nittany Lions. I think that Penn St. could potentially garner a tournament bid.

Ohio St @ Illinois
I really don’t think this will be too interesting. But if OSU pulls off the upset…

Wake Forest?!

2009-01-19T18:51:00.003-05:00

So, if you've been paying attention, we have our winner for likely #1 overall - Wake Forest.

I actually don't have time to recap the weekend's action, and I spent my time yesterday looking at Bracketbusters, of which there should be about two or three excellent games (well, games that mean anything).

So, for now, I'll just comment on tonight's match-ups:

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh:
What? Why do I think this game has a shot of being close? Well, Syracuse IS massively inconsistent...

Cincinnati @ Providence:
If Providence wants to get into the tournament, it has to provide separation from the lower end
of the conference - a group which Cincinnati is pretty much part of.

Yea... A Big East kind of night.

No excuse

2009-01-17T01:59:00.004-05:00

I've really got no excuse for not posting, other than just being busy. Also, getting settled into the routine of the semester. I'll work to keep up.

Things that happened this week (Tuesday through Friday):
1. Jodie Meeks destroyed Tennessee:
This game catapulted Kentucky atop the SEC in a big way.
2. Florida St. won at NC St.
One team is a contender. The other is not.
3. Iowa St. beat Nebraska
So much for the Huskers having a shot - guess they just were on against Mizzou.
4. Big East, ACC Powers Rolled
As if these teams are really mortal! (Please please note the sarcasm)
5. The X wins at URI.
This may have been the hardest remaining game for the X. No, seriously.
6. Arizona St. goes down to the Trojans
Well, if you're gonna lose games...
7. Bad SEC teams rise up, take out pretenders.
LSU over So Carolina. Ole Miss over Arkansas. Destroying hopes and dreams. The only problem is, I don't know who else should take their spot.
8. Road wins are hard to come by in the Mountain West.
Which is why San Diego St and UNLV are now scrambling for at-large bids.

And now, for the major weekend matchups. I'm just gonna run through them real quick, because I've gotta get up and go in 3 hours.

Saturday
Georgetown @ Duke:
I love good nonconference matchups sprinkled in during the conference schedule.
Wake Forest @ Clemson
Could Wake's perfect season come to an end here?
Illinois @ Michigan St.
This should be an easy win for the Spartans.
Pittsburgh @ Louisville
Could Pitt's perfect season come to an end here?
Arizona St. @ UCLA
Top two in the Pac-10. The Devils have should a complete inability to win on the road.
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M
Aggies surprising, and I could see a win here.
Notre Dame @ Syracuse
The Irish really need a road win.
Ohio St. @ Michigan
Nothing to say.
Oklahoma St. @ Baylor
California @ Stanford
Maryland @ Florida St.
Marquette @ Providence
BYU @ New Mexico
BYU always has a chance to lose on the road.
Kansas St. @ Nebraska
Nebraska needs to bounce back if they want to make the tournament.
South Carolina @ Tennessee
UAB @ Memphis
Butler @ UIC
Butler has a real good chance of losing here.

Sunday
Minnesota @ Northwestern
Northwestern is 0-4 (as predicted) and needs to win this game. If they can't, they have a good chance of starting off 0-7, which will put them in a hole as far as making the tournament.

I'll see you on Sunday with a weekend wrap and a bracket.

Seed List

2009-01-13T17:52:00.005-05:00

Here's the new seed list. Note that Oklahoma isn't a true one, but I really don't they'll have 3 ACC 1 seeds.

1: Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Oklahoma
2: Clemson, Duke, Georgetown, Connecticut
3: Arizona St, Butler, Michigan St, Xavier
4: Illinois, West Virginia, Texas, Ohio St
5: UCLA, Tennessee, Marquette, Syracuse
6: California, Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Kansas
7: Miami (FL), Louisville, Missouri, Michigan
8: Oklahoma St, Villanova, Minnesota, Baylor
9: Kentucky, UNLV, Texas A&M, Brigham Young
10: Maryland, Purdue, Davidson, Florida
11: Wisconsin, South Carolina, St. Mary’s, Florida St.
12: Memphis, San Diego St, Utah St, Creighton
13: Miami (OH), George Mason, Western Kentucky, VMI
14: Siena, Portland St, North Dakota St, Belmont
15: Long Beach St, American, Lamar, Morehead St.
16: Boston U, Robert Morris, Cornell, Alabama St, Morgan St

Last Four In: South Carolina, St. Mary’s, Florida St, San Diego St.
First Four Out: Dayton, Utah, Penn St, Providence
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Arizona, Stanford, Temple

New In: Villanova, St. Mary’s, Wisconsin
Old Out: Illinois St, Boston College, Washington

Moving Up: UConn, UCLA, Louisville, Minnesota, Marquette
Moving Down: Kentucky, Maryland, Creighton

Bracket

Monday Wrap, Tuesday Games

2009-01-13T17:30:00.002-05:00

Not too much unexpected happened last night:

Louisville 87, Notre Dame 73 (OT):
I have to say - watching the battle when Notre Dame was on offense was entertaining. The other battle? Pretty sad - Louisville drove the ball at will, and missed dozens of short shots. The Irish actually should have had the last shot in regulation, but they came up with a really bad plan of attack. Note: don't depend on Brey to make good coaching decisions. It'll burn you every time.

Oklahoma 78, Texas 63:
Pretty much what I said yesterday. I'm actually less certain now that Texas will beat Oklahoma in Austin. But not certain enough to change my projections.

Tonights Games:

Kentucky @ Tennessee (9:00, ESPN):
Top two teams in the SEC. Should be a good game.

Florida St. @ North Carolina St. (7:00, ESPNU):
Pomeroy rankings call these two almost equal, and conventional wisdom calls Florida St. the better team. This will help getting a clearer picture of where these two stand.

Kansas St. @ Kansas (8:00, ESPN Full Court):
Rivalry games ALWAYS make for good watching. Especially when both teams are vying for spots in the bracket (well, I suppose KU is more looking for seeding).

Memphis @ Tulsa (7:00, ESPN2):
Memphis is a lot weaker this year, and has beaten exactly no one of note. I'm suspicious that their Pomeroy ranking is inflated by the crappy teams they've beaten, and I think they'll lose a couple of conference games. This is their first road game against a decent in-conference opponent.

Weekend Wrap, Big Monday Preview

2009-01-12T14:11:00.004-05:00

Sorry I didn’t get a chance to post yesterday, and forewarn you about the UNC game. But, I figured you’d know about it. Actually, I was doing a bit of moving, and didn’t get a chance to do this. But I think you'll forgive me.

January 10
Indiana St 75, Illinois St 70:
With this, Illinois St is fully exposed, and we can stop talking about them for a while. But really, you shouldn’t be losing to any team this bad, even on the road. Perfect records only mean something if you had to beat someone to get there.

Louisville 61, Villanova 60:
Louisville showed that they can compete on the road in the tough Big East. Meanwhile, Villanova lost a game that they were expected to win. I’m not sure if Nova is still going to be in the bracket this week.

Nebraska 56, Missouri 51:
It looks like the Cornhuskers slowed down the game, and pulled the upset. This is pretty shocking, actually – Mizzou is supposed to be one of the better teams in the conference, but apparently the entire Big XII North sucks. Just like in football.

UMass 75, Dayton 62; St. Joe’s 92, URI 86:
Dayton and URI realistically needed to not trip up against the lower teams of the A-10 to have any shot at an at-large. Now, on one of the early weekends, they have already eliminated themselves.

Mississippi St 70, Arkansas 56:
Arkansas losing at home, to a not-so-good team, right after knocking off Texas and Oklahoma? Sounds like fun. Their next two games are at Ole Miss and at Florida, so they could very well be 0-3 in the SEC. 10-6 may not be good enough to get them into the tournament, (remember, they have to deal with that loss to Missouri St.) so I’d advise them to stop losing to bad teams.

Texas Christian 80, UNLV 73:
Not too bad of a loss, but one that UNLV probably didn’t want to deal with. They’re already expected to pick up four other in-conference losses, so they wanted this one. I can believe a 10 seed now – sorry reader from earlier. But again, I don’t think this is a crushing blow that will keep them out of the tournament.

California 88, Washington 85:
Cal asserting themselves as the 3rd best team in the conference. Washington is really in trouble now – if they can’t assert themselves as team #4 from the Pac-10, they may not get in.

Washington St. 55, Stanford 54:
Well… so much for Stanford. At this point, they are probably looking at 6th or 7th in the conference, which probably won’t be enough to garner an at-large bid, given that they beat NO ONE in the non-conference slate. Washington St. is still out of the running at this point, although a sweep of the Oregon teams would keep them hanging around.

Michigan St. 75, Kansas 62:
Nothing special here, really. I was pretty sure that the result would be along these lines, so this is a nice confirmation that my relative feelings of these teams was correct.

Big 10/ACC:
I felt proud of myself this weekend – I didn’t need to change a single schedule in either the Big 10 or the ACC (that is, every game turned out as I thought it would). Boston College proved that they are not good. Duke showed that they were good. Wake showed that they were on the level of UNC. Big 10 teams didn’t show anything of note.

Utah St. 77, New Mexico St 67:
The Aggies won their most difficult conference game, and the next tough game they have is on the road at Nevada on February 28th. They just need to not screw up before then.

Texas 75, Iowa St. 67:
The worst team in the Big XII (probably) went on the road, and almost beat one of the best teams. This should be a note of warning for all the Big XII teams.

Duke 66, Florida St. 58:
What a weird game. When I checked the halftime score, it was Duke 19, FSU 14. I guess they decided to play offense in the second half? 2nd half scoring: Duke 47, FSU 44. Nothing of interest here, I just wanted to comment on the disparity in scoring between the two halves.

Butler 54, Detroit 50 (@ Butler):
Is Butler heading for an embarrassing in-conference loss? Perhaps. But I think this is more of a case of Butler looking past this game

January 11
Wake Forest 92, North Carolina 89:
I briefly mentioned this game above, but I’d just like to add that this pretty much assures that two ACC teams will be #1 seeds. End of story. Actually, if the top 4 annihilate the rest of the conference, and the top teams of the Big East and Big XII and Big 10 suffer some bad losses, all four #1s could be ACC. But I don’t see that happening.

Alabama 65, LSU 59:
Let me say it again – the Tigers are overrated (and unranked), and will not be making the tournament. Also, if they can't beat Bama on the road, they have a good shot of going 0-8 on the road in conference.

UCLA 64, USC 60:
I actually thought the Trojans would take this game, not because they are good, but because I figured they would have something to prove after their loss to the Beavers, and they’d like to beat their arch-rival UCLA. But, nevermind, relegated to the bargain bin. UCLA, ASU, Cal are sitting pretty for the tournament at this point.

Big Monday returns, and not much is going on. But there are two awesome games!
January 12
Texas @ Oklahoma:
Unquestionably the two best teams in the conference, despite both losing at Arkansas. Both are nominally still in the running for a #1 seed, although I think that they’ll all go to Big East and ACC teams. Also, they kind of have this rivalry thing you may have heard of, which may or may not have been magnified by the events of this football season. Should be a great game, but I expect OU to run away with it because they have Blake Griffin, and I don’t think anyone on Texas can stop him. However, I think Texas will win the return trip in Austin. Just because of home court and all that

Notre Dame @ Louisville:
This is the first game of a home and home series between these two underachieving preseason elites. Here’s why it will be fun:
Notre Dame Offensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Notre Dame Defensive Efficiency Rank: 162
Louisville Offensive Efficiency Rank: 94
Louisville Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
An unstoppable attack meets an impenetrable defense on one end of the court, while on the other a horrible shooting team will be trying to score on a porous defense. Either way, these two are matched up well. I fully expect my Irish to lose.

I probably won’t be able to get a bracket up until after tonight’s games. Tomorrow, I’ll post my top 25 (for real this week). I also hope to give my observations of the two big games tonight, as well as making a post about bubble teams and bad losses.

My internet was gone for two days

2009-01-10T10:37:00.005-05:00

So thats why I haven't posted. But I still have

To the Anonymous Reader, commenting about Miami – thanks! I haven’t gotten a chance to watch them, and so I was just going off of Pomeroy’s stats, and the slow pace seemed a bit out of line for Miami, but on second look I can see that it would fit.

Onto the action of the past few nights – it had a few surprises, to say the least.

January 7th
Gonzaga 89, Tennessee 79:
Man, was I wrong about this game. I mean, I knew Gonzaga was good, I just really didn’t think they stomp all over Tennessee in Knoxville. This means that the Zags can move back into the yellow section. Of course, they have to keep rooting for Portland St – if PSU ends the season better than 101 in RPI, then Gonzaga is fine. If they drop below 100, then Gonzaga will have to deal with the stigma of a loss in the 100+ column.

North Carolina 108, College of Charleston 70; Duke 79, Davidson 67
ACC had a good night?

Harvard 82, Boston College 70; Morgan St. 66, Maryland 65
ACC had a real good night!
Really, BC, how do you lose at home by 12? On my gigantic spreadsheet of teams that I finished a few days back, BC is now an awkward color, halfway between pink and peach. Actually, Maryland gets that too now. Others: Kansas, Michigan, Arkansas, Notre Dame. They have bad losses and (will have) great wins. The difference between them? BC and Maryland won’t have multiple great wins. One more unexpected loss, and the Eagles will be dropped from my projections.

Providence 87, Cincinnati 79; Wisconsin 74, Northwestern 45
I think Cincy is done. So is Northwestern. That’s just my feel on those two teams – they are not up to the level of the other teams in their respective conference.

January 8th
Washington 84, Stanford 83
A close game, but Stanford proved that they still deserve to be talked about. Really, besides UCLA, ASU, and Cal, I'm not sure if any other team is going to get in from the Pac-10.

Weber St. 80, Portland St. 66: (@ Portland St)
Well, this won't help the Zags (see earlier comment), nor will it help the Vikings in their quest for an auto-bid - remember the Big Sky has a strange, NFL-esque play-off, with the last two rounds held on the court of the regular season.

Long Beach St 74, Pacific 64: (@ Pacific)
So I suppose I could have been wrong about who would be Big West Champions...

Utah St. 50, Louisiana Tech 37
I actually watched this game during the portion of the BS National Championship that was boring. This game was worse - I must have picked the Aggies' worst game of the season. Nothing else really to say here.

January 9th
St. Mary's 63, Santa Clara 62: (@ St. Mary's)
This does not bode well for the Gaels. They are supposed to enjoy one of the toughest home court environments in all of basketball, and they struggle against Santa Clara. Really, St. Mary's needs to not lose to anyone except Gonzaga.

Moving on to today's games. There are a lot of games of interest simply because most of the leagues are having their first full day of play - ACC, A-10, Big XII, C-USA, MAC, MWC, Patriot, SEC, Southland, WCC.

Kansas @ Michigan St.:
One of the last great non-con games. It should actually be a pretty easy win for the Spartans. Kansas isn't that good - Phog is just impenetrable.

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma St.; Stanford @ Washington St.; Utah @ San Diego St.; Louisville @ Villanova;
Numerous games between potential bubble teams.

Miami (FL) @ Boston College; West Virginia @ Marquette; California @ Washington: Connecticut @ Cincinnati:
Numerous games featuring a solid team on the road against a bubble team.

Duke @ Florida St.:
First ACC road test. I think (Let's Go) DOOOK loses this game.

Oklahoma @ Kansas St.:
First Big XII road test. OU might lose this game, but I doubt it. Kansas St has no one who can match up against Blake Griffin.

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky:
The only slightly interesting SEC game. All of them feature a mediocre team at a better team (except Tennessee @ UGA, but UGA just is horrible).

Seton Hall @ Notre Dame:
Actually, the big cluster up top is mainly a result of me going to this game.

January 6th Wrap-up, January 7th Lookout

2009-01-07T11:29:00.003-05:00

Bradley 56, Illinois St. 52; Northern Iowa 69, Creighton 66:
Two major, major upsets in the Valley. Illinois St was fighting for a bid on the ticket that they could go undefeated – that can’t happen now. Don’t be surprised to see a 3-4 loss Illinois St. missing the tournament all together. Creighton, on the other hand, had looked somewhat legit (minus those two embarrassing losses), so to lose to Northern Iowa AT HOME is just incredible. Mark my words – the Valley will be a one-bid this year.

Arkansas 67, Texas 61:
Well. A middling team in the SEC has taken it to the Big XII. Again. That’s Middling SEC teams 3, Big XII teams 0. More important, however, are the ramifications for Arkansas. Remember, SEC scheduling is such that they only have to play Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and SC once each. They should have an easy time coasting to a tournament bid. Well, unless they get upset by Bama or Georgia…

Connecticut 61, West Virginia 55:
UConn came back from their home loss, and won on the road. West Virginia failed to defend their top Pomeroy Ranking. On any given night in the Big East… I’m looking forward to the 24th.

Michigan St. 67, Ohio St. 58; Penn St 67, Purdue 64:
I kind of thought this would be the case. I don’t think Ohio St can really even compete any more. Meanwhile, it looks like Indiana is going to provide the only pushover game in the Big 10.
Dayton 45, Miami (OH) 40:
Bah. What a pathetic score. I’m not sure, but I think Miami played a slowdown game, and it almost worked. But why are you slowing things down against a team that isn’t much better than you?

Utah 91, LSU 61
Yep yep, I’ll just leave this here…

January 7th
Gonzaga @ Tennessee (9:00, ESPN2):
Rematch from a neutral-site game earlier in the year. I fully expect Gonzaga to lose this end of the duel. Which would be their 5th straight loss. Yea, that sucks.

Davidson @ Duke (7:00, ESPN):
Davidson, playing anyone anywhere – and losing doing it. Seriously, Davidson, you need to schedule a little bit better, like not playing Chatt… wait, they are in your conference. Crap, you just need a new conference.

College of Charleston @ North Carolina:
But the College of Charleston can come with you, Davidson. In the 9.5 year history of the Pomeroy ratings, CofC has never finished below 180. Anyways, we can start talking about the College of Charleston seriously if they come within 10 points in this game. How badly does UNC want to look ahead to Sunday? How worried are they about getting caught looking ahead again?

Second Brackets are Pretty Painful, too

2009-01-06T19:01:00.005-05:00

I spent about 8 hours on this. I don't want to look at it anymore tonight. Will revisit it in the morning.

Note: Finished before the games of January 6th.

1: Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgetown
2: Clemson, West Virginia, Duke, Oklahoma
3: Illinois, Michigan St, Butler, Arizona St
4: Syracuse, Xavier, Tennessee, Texas
5: Missouri, Connecticut, Kansas, California
6: Kentucky, Baylor, Ohio St., Miami (FL)
7: Notre Dame, Oklahoma St, Maryland, Gonzaga
8: Michigan, UCLA, Boston College, Florida
9: Creighton, BYU, Purdue, UNLV
10: Texas A&M, Florida St, Louisville, Davidson
11: Illinois St., Memphis, South Carolina, Minnesota
12: Washington, San Diego St, Utah St, Marquette
13: Miami (OH), Portland St, Pacific, George Mason
14: MTSU, Belmont , Niagara, VMI
15: North Dakota St., Austin Peay, Vermont, Lamar
16: Navy, Robert Morris, Morgan St., Cornell, Alabama St.

Last Five Out: Dayton, Villanova, Kansas St, Utah, LSU
Next Five Out: Wisconsin, Arizona, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Stanford

If I'm doing this right, these next two should see very little movement after this week. I attribute this to me being stupid last week.
Moved Up (4 or more): Wake Forest, California, Maryland, Oklahoma St, Boston College
Moved Down (4 or more): Michigan, UCLA, Purdue, Washington, Washington St, Arizona, Villanova

Bracket: Later

EDIT: I realized later that I had forgotten about Louisville. So they are in now, and Dayton is out. I'd also like to note that if this holds, we are going to have the strongest bubble in the three years I've been doing this.

First Post of the Day

2009-01-06T13:35:00.003-05:00

So I’m trying to get that seed list and bracket out that I promised you all about two days ago. I’m starting this post about noon, and I think the bracket should be done around 4. However, I wanted to get this daily post out of the way first. Also, the Blogpoll Top 25 should be done around 3, and I’ll post my ballot with my comments. So it should be a good day. Also, I’d like to direct your attention over to the link area, which has been re-organized, and features a new addition: The Bracket Busters.

January 5th
Notre Dame 73, Georgetown 67:
Well, if anyone was wondering, there goes any Georgetown claim to supremacy. After two straight losses, they get to “relax” with home games against Providence and Syracuse. Life in the Big East is wonderful. Meanwhile, Notre Dame showed that St. John’s was (probably) an anomaly, and at worst this team is going to go 10-8 in-conference, sweeping the home slate (again) and winning at least one road game. What I saw, however, was even more key – Harangody FIGHTING FOR THE REBOUNDS. He hadn’t been doing that, and the “physical” Irish team was getting beat on the boards. To see him fighting up there against Greg Monroe – who is a whole head taller than him – gave me hope for the rest of the season.

Presbyterian 67, Liberty 66:
Remember a few weeks back, when I said this was a two horse race between Liberty and VMI? Forget it. This is VMI’s show, with the Flames now dropping to 1-3 in conference. Sure, Radford is 3-1, and maybe VMI’s last 2 wins have been by a combined 7 points, but you don’t understand how entertaining it would be for VMI to make the tournament, and force some top team to run with them.

Robert Morris 77, Mt. St. Mary’s 70
I must say, I’m befuddled. The Mount is supposed to be the only halfway decent in the NEC (according to the Pomeroy Ratings), and yet they are 0-3 in the conference. Not that the order of finish actually matters – the tourney champ still gets the Auto Bid to get stomped by a #1 seed.

Tonight, we’ve got a pretty good line-up.

Connecticut @ West Virginia (7:00, ESPNU):
West Virginia is now the #1 team in the Pomeroy ratings, and this is their first matchup against one of the top 8 in the Big East. Show me you deserve a high ranking – I think you deserve one after seeing you stomp all over the Buckeyes, but you need to atone for the losses to Kentucky and Davidson. Oh, the Huskies also want to win this game badly after being embarrassed at home.

Villanova @ Seton Hall (8:00, SNY/ESPN Full Court)
Another Big East game, but this time on the bubble side of things. Nova really hasn’t done anything this year, aside from beating URI. If they want to be team 8, 9 or 10 getting in from the Big East, then they need to take care of games like this one.

Miami (OH) @ Dayton:
Two more bubble teams collide. Two major Ohio mid-majors battling it out. Dayton needs this game to feel comfortable, because otherwise they have two losses to bubble teams. Miami, on the other hand, has 4 losses to excellent teams, but no wins that will garner attention on Selection Sunday. If they can avoid getting more than one loss in conference play, they may have an argument for an at-large. But, as my friend Chris says, “That’s why the MAC is always a one-bid. They ALWAYS beat up on each other”

Ohio St. @ Michigan St. (7:00, ESPN2):
I’d be more excited about this game if I hadn’t already tallied it as a win in the Spartan column. I’ll talk more about this game if it actually surprises me.

Purdue @ Penn St.:
This game has to potential to be a real shocker. The Nittany Lions knocked off Northwestern already, and then shocked everyone (me) by nearly taking it to Wisconsin at Kohl. This will be the most hostile crowd this season for the Boilermakers, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see Penn St. get a win here.

Texas @ Arkansas (9:00, ESPN2):
Heh. Heh. You know, this is funny, because Oklahoma went into Arkansas LAST week, and lost, so what if Texas were to do the same? Actually, this won’t happen, because of that fact.

LSU @ Utah:
Despite being a person who professes to harbor a small desire for the Tigers to do well, I feel like every year I’m too frustrated by those overrating Louisiana St. to even consider cheering for them. This mainly applies in football, but this year, I feel like they need a swift kick in the butt to put them in their place. Then I’ll start supporting them again. I think Utah can accomplish this, where ULL, Washington St, and Mcneese St. could not.

Response: UNLV

2009-01-05T12:47:00.004-05:00

A reader commented! Until I get well-read to the point that I get overwhelmed with comments every post, I will try to respond to each and every comment. I may not satisfy you, but at least you'll know I'm listening.

I made a post following UNLV's victory over Louisville, stating that I felt that UNLV was a lock for the tournament, but only as a 10 or 11 seed. The comment expressed that they felt that UNLV was more in line for a 5-6 seed.

Last Year UNLV did this to get an 8:
Overall: 25-7
Conference: 12-4
Top 25: 2 wins - BYU x2
26-50: 0-1
51-100: 7-3
101+: 1 Loss - Air Force
SOS: 63

Two years ago, UNLV did this to get a 7:
Overall: 27-6
Conference: 12-4
Top 25: 3 wins - BYUx2, Nevada
26-50: 1-1 (Air Force)
51-100: 6-1
+101: 2 Losses - UCSB, Wyoming
SOS: 37

So what does this mean? Lets summarize UNLV's case. In my projections, I'm assuming that UNLV will sweep TCU, Colorado St, Wyoming, and Air Force. I also assume they will split with SDSU, Utah, BYU, and New Mexico - this seems fair to me, because UNLV is normally excellent at home, and kind of bad on the road, like much of the MWC.
(all RPI projections taken from RPIforecast.com)

Overall: 27-6
Conference: 12-4
Top 25 RPI wins: 0
26-50 Record: 5-4 (Wins: BYUx2, Louisville, SDSU, Utah; Losses: BYU, Cal, Utah, SDSU)
51-100 Record: 4-2
101+ Losses: 0
SOS: 80

The overall record and conference records are similar. Obviously, there are a great deal more wins in the 26-50 range, but 2 of these are a result of BYU moving from a top 25 team to a 26-50 team. Really, I don't think that UNLV has a much stronger resume at all. However, I think that my assertion that they would be as low as a 10 seed is also incorrect. 7-9 should be about where UNLV finishes out.

What a weekend!

2009-01-05T12:01:00.005-05:00

I’ve been confined to bed over the past few days – so sue me for missing a few days.

Anyhow – could I look smarter for projecting Notre Dame as a 7? Could I look dumber for projecting Wake Forest as an eight? Here’s a three-day wrap-up.

Friday 2nd
South Carolina 85, Baylor 84:
Wait, wait, so you’re telling me that the Gamecocks, who look to be a middling team in the middling SEC, can waltz into Waco and come out with a win? Baylor still should have enough to snag a high seed with a decent Big XII season, with their wins over Arizona St. and Washington St. . But South Carolina’s win gives them a signature win heading into the conference schedule. More importantly, however, is what it does for the teams they’ve lost to. Clemson can now count that road win as a decent win, and we can now look at the College of Charleston, who could easily finish 18-2 in the Southern Conference, with two losses against Davidson – 26-4 overall. That should be enough to get them a decent look by the committee.

Arizona St. 90, Stanford 60:
How do you end a team’s perfect start to a season? Absolute demolition. This is what Stanford gets for not scheduling tough teams in the non-conference. I would not be surprised to see them miss the tournament altogether.

California 69, Arizona 55:
Well… hmm… It appears that Cal is indeed tournament quality. Let’s see how they fare against ASU, though.

Pacific 84, CSU-Northridge 78:
Yes, I will insist on putting this game up here. Knowing very little about this conference, I will foolhardily state that Pacific will win this conference.

Saturday 3rd
Pittsburgh 70, Georgetown 54:
It would figure that the one game that I really wanted to see, I would be too sick to get up and watch. I’m now 0-2 on major Big East games. But, Pitt won at G’town. G’town won at UConn. Pitt is the best team in the conference, and if you can’t see that, I can’t help you. Also, Rutgers and Florida St. are the only two teams this season to keep Pitt within 10.

Wake Forest 94, BYU 87:
And there goes the longest active home win streak – 53 games by the BYU Cougars. But, more than that, this game signals the ascendancy of the Demon Deacons. I think that, with the UNC loss to BC, Wake has an outside shot of winning the conference.

St. John’s 71, Notre Dame 65:
At the time, this game was on track to be the biggest upset of the weekend. The Irish came out sloppy, and not even the fire of Luke Harangody was enough to spark a run. It appears that an effective game plan has been made against the Irish, and until they figure out a way to counter that plan, they are going to continue to lose games. It is not outside of the realm of possibility for the Irish to miss the tournament.

Play that epitomizes the game: Harangody pulls down a tough rebound, down by 2 (or perhaps 4). Tory Jackson is right beside him, and Burrell is leaning over his back. Options are: 1) Pass to TJ or 2) Elbow Burrell in the face. You can guess which occurred.

Illinois St. 86, Creighton 64:

Well, I guess we know who the dominant team out of the Valley is. Question: If the Redbirds go 32-0, what seed will they get?

Washington 68, Washington St. 48:
Another game that shocked me in terms of score. I could have expected this score in Seattle, but I expected these two teams to be closer in terms of ability. The Cougars really don’t have any wins this season, and if they can’t beat Washington at home, don’t expect them to do any better than 9-9 in conference, and a trip to the NIT. Washington, on the other hand, looks surprisingly decent.

Minnesota 68, Ohio St. 59; Michigan St. 77, Northwestern 66:
More sorting out in the Big 10. I bet Ohio St really wants Lighty back about now. Also, every Ohio St. loss makes Notre Dame and Butler look worse. And every Northwestern loss calls Stanford's resume more into question.

Kansas 92, Tennessee 85:
My analysis? Kansas just refuses to lose at Phog. This will make Kansas look good for a while, and then they’ll lose on the road, and they’ll end up with mediocre seeding. Meanwhile, this takes Tennessee down a notch. I still think that doing well in the SEC will count for something, and they’ll end up in those top 16 spots.

Mississippi St. 82, Houston 65:
Houston really just doesn’t want a bid, do they? Every year, they seem to be in the talk, and yet they haven’t made the tournament since they got the autobid out of the Southwest Conference in 1992.

Sunday 4th
Boston College 85, North Carolina 78:
Well. Hrm. I don’t think anyone expected this. Certainly not at the hands of Boston College. I don’t really think this will affect UNC’s seed – they are still headed for a 1. But this could be the game that launches the Eagles into the tournament – as long as they don’t fall on their faces the rest of the season.

Michigan 74, Illinois 64
Michigan bounces back from their tough home loss against Purdue to beat the Illini. I have this feeling that the Big 10 will be like this all year – no consistency (well, other than poor, pathetic, soon to be 0-18 in conference IU). This, in turn will make seeding hard to predict.

Louisville 74, Kentucky 71
I was convinced that Kentucky would win this up until the final buzzer. But both teams just made SO MANY DUMB MISTAKES. Especially Kentucky – it was only an outrageously good shooting day that kept the Wildcats close.

Oregon St. 62, Southern Cal 58:
Congratulations to Oregon St. on their first conference win in 22 attempts. At the same time, you to drive a dagger into the Trojan’s tournament hopes – anytime you lose to a team expected to finish below 250 in RPI, you’ve been dealt a crushing blow. Also, you probably aren’t that good, anyways. But the Trojans did it last year, as did Nova and Pitt. But they’ve got a worse resume this year, and will probably need to garner wins against UCLA, ASU, and Cal.

California 81, Arizona St. 71:
With a win here, I was ready to declare the Sun Devils my projected Pac-10 champions. Now, I’m not sure. This could be a more competitive conference than I thought. This also stands to improve the standing of UNLV, Missouri, and Florida St.. That Rebel loss doesn’t look so bad, coming against a contender for the Pac-10 title. Missouri’s blow-out of the Bears lends them some more credence. And Florida St can use all the help they can get – unless they do better than expected in the ACC (read: finish above .500), they’ll be aburstin’ come March.

Stanford 76, Arizona 60:
I don’t know what to make of this game. Honestly, I’m convinced that neither of these teams will make it. I think it is quite probably that Arizona will finish with a better record against teams 1-50 than against teams 50-100 in RPI, while playing non-trivial amounts of both.

Top 25, Response Post, and Bracket to follow!

2009-01-02T13:06:00.002-05:00

Wednesday 31st:

North Carolina 84, Nevada 61:
Nevada kept this close for a while, but they were no match for the Tar Heels. Will anyone come close to beating them? Pomeroy says they’ll lose three, but they’ve also been resting their starters a lot – 34% of their minutes have come off the bench. If they played their starters more, they’d beat these teams by more. Ouch. On a related note, no starter has played more than 68% percent of the Tarheel minutes.

Utah 66, Gonzaga 65:
The mighty Mountain West! I mentioned the other day that I thought Gonzaga might lose this game, even though Utah had lost to Southwest Baptist and Idaho St. I still don’t think Utah gets in to the tournament – this loss doesn’t make Gonzaga look overly good. In fact, if Gonzaga fails to defeat Tennessee next week, we can start considering Gonzaga’s early season triumphs a fluke. If Gonzaga goes worse than 12-2 in conference, they may be looking at the bubble come
Selection Sunday.

UNLV 56, Louisville 55:
This whole game, Louisville looked like they could get back in it. And they did. Although UNLV dominated at the start, and led by ten the entire first half, with 4:15 left in the game Louisville took the lead for the first time. Shooting under 30% on your home floor is never going to get you a win. How about UNLV though – wins over Arizona and Louisville have almost erased the early losses to the Bearcats and Cal. With the conference tournament on their home floor, they are almost a lock to make the tournament - but only as a 10 or 11.

Illinois St. 80, Evansville 50:
So, Evansville is now 0-3 on the road. They need to win some of those road games, or we won’t be talking about them in March. Even with a decent Valley record, they still might be on the wrong side of the bubble in March. Also, Illinois St. establishes themselves as the team to beat in the Valley.

Ohio St. 68, Iowa 65:
The only Big 10 team I predicted to win who actually won. Ohio St. is struggling without Lighty - because of this, they’ll probably lose more games than they were initially expected. The best thing for the Buckeyes, should they lose a few unexpected games, is for them to come back with Lighty and absolutely dominate, like Dayton of last year. Of course, that didn’t help Dayton, so the Buckeyes might just want to win a few games.

Michigan St. 70, Minnesota 58; Penn St. 61, Northwestern 57; Wisconsin 73, Michigan 61:
The three surprise teams in the Big 10 all fall in their first conference games. While Minnesota going down to the Spartans was not too surprising, it also showed that they aren’t going to be one of the top teams in the league. Northwestern lost to a weak Penn St. team, and Michigan lost AT CRISLER to the Badgers. Really? Really? Step it up.

Pittsburgh 78, Rutgers 72:
I mention this only to show the depth of the Big East. At home, any team can play with any other team. Well… maybe not Depaul.

LSU 81, UL-Lafayette 79:
One of these days, LSU will lose at home to a bad team. Or, they’ll get smoked at home by Xavier (a good team). Any ways, I’m still wary of this Tiger team.

Thursday 1st

Marquette 79, Villanova 72:
Marquette opens up nicely at home with a win over a tough Villanova team, who is probably going to be on the right side of the bubble in March. But, just to be safe, they should be winning games against other bubble teams, or scoring signature wins. They probably need to do better than 7-11.

Tonights games:
Arizona @ Cal; Arizona St. @ Stanford:
The Pac-10 kicks off with the Arizona teams doing the San Francisco swing, and the LA teams doing the Oregon swing. Obviously, only one of those is really important, although a loss to the Oregon teams would hurt anyone.

Syracuse @ USF:
Rutgers showed they can be competitive at home. Depaul showed they can kind of be competitive at home. What will USF do? Lets be realistic - USF has no shot of any postseason play. Their goal is second round of the Big East Tournament. A win here would go a long way towards that.

Pacific @ CSU-Northridge:
Pomeroy lists these two atop the Big West. Sounds like fun. Winner controls the conference.

Because I like jumping around... the Big 10

2008-12-31T19:19:00.003-05:00

I’m now in the hotel lounge, watching the Wisconsin - Michigan game, and thought it would be an appropriate time to discuss the Big 10. (Note: I finished this around 7:18, and thus could reference all of the day’s Big 10 action). I'll eventually get around to doing all the conferences - just give me about a week or two.

Highly Likely:

Ohio St.: They looked like the team to beat in the Big 10 – at least until West Virginia wiped the floor with them. As it is, the wins over Miami (FL), Butler, and Notre Dame will look very good, probably good enough to get them in with a mediocre Big 10 campaign.

Illinois: As bad as they looked last night, they did beat a good Purdue team. I’m really not sure what to say about the Illini – they beat up Mizzou, and they almost beat Clemson. I would venture to say they aren’t as good as the 2-line I put them at, but they could make it there based on what they’ve done so far.

Purdue: The loss to Illinois was yet another wake-up call to the young Boilermaker team. Although they scored a dominant win over Davidson, they haven’t yet shown they can play consistently with the best. I present to you the destruction put on at Mackey by Duke. I fear for Purdue going into the Big 10 season – if they can’t win at Mackey, how can they hope to win at Kohl?

Michigan: Although they are projected to fare poorest of the five teams I have listed here, they had arguably the best out-of-conference performance of any of the four. Any time you beat Duke AND UCLA, you’re going to get some respect. While the loss to Maryland took some of the luster off, they still should get in, even if they go 8-10 in the Big 10.

Michigan St.: They beat Texas, and they’ve only lost to Maryland and UNC. That same Maryland team that beat Michigan. Perhaps Maryland isn’t so bad. Anyhow, they’ve also ended the undefeated run of Minnesota, and I they should be able to pick up home wins over the Big 10 powers – enough that I’d give them a fairly high likelihood of getting in.

Likely In:

Minnesota: I’ve reversed my thinking on Minnesota vs. Northwestern. While Minnesota did beat Louisville, and was undefeated until today’s earlier loss to Michigan St., they still don’t have that much to support their at-large candidacy, especially if Louisville’s weak season continues into the Big East schedule. Should they break 20 wins, however, it would be tough to keep them out.

Likely Out:

Wisconsin: When all you can hang your hat on out-of-conference is that you played Texas tough, you’ve not done well. However, they kicked off the Big 10 season right with the win over Michigan, and if they can pick up a couple of big wins, they could make it to the tournament.

Iowa: Iowa’s signature win is Kansas St. They have losses against Boston College and Drake, neither of which I project in at the moment. They have the slowest tempo of play in DI basketball, which will score them some upsets, but I’m sure they still won’t do very well in the Big 10 season. Thus, I don't see them making the tournament.

Northwestern: Sure, they haven’t had terrible losses – Butler may be a top 15 team, and Stanford is undefeated so far. But their one decent win – against Florida St. – may not make the playoffs. And that loss today against the Nittany Lions looks bad. I don’t think the Big Ten can get more than 7 teams in, and Northwestern needs to beat one of the better teams to have a hope.

Penn St.: When I started formulating this post a few days ago, I didn’t even have Penn St. as a possibility. I mean, we are talking a team whose best OOC win was against a struggling Georgia Tech team that may not end up with a top-100 RPI. But their win at home against Northwestern led me to look again, and I suppose the losses aren’t so bad that they necessarily couldn’t make it. But that won’t be possible with the 5-13 Big 10 record I am currently projecting.

Definitely Out – Indiana

30th Wrap-up, 31st games of import

2008-12-31T12:14:00.005-05:00

So, I was hoping to skip a night, avoid paying for hotel internet, and pick it back up this afternoon at home. But I'm travelling with my brother, and he's come down with the flu, so I'll be ringing in the New Year in Lexington, hopefully while watching UNC's perfect season go down the drains - no offense Tarheel fans, but I'd like to think that you'll have some competition for the title this year.

Here's what happened last night:

Illinois 71, Purdue 67 OT
Neither of these teams looked very good, but at a packed Mackey Arena, Illinois showed that they were the better team. Despite having 16 fewer free throws, (27-11) and a phantom foul on Purdue’s last (real) shot of regulation, Illinois managed to pull out a game that was back and forth. One thing I noticed last night is that Purdue still looked young – making bad decisions and so forth. I think they’ll probably lose a game or two that they shouldn’t – which is why Sunday they’ll be moved out of the top four seed lines.

Arkansas 96, Oklahoma 88
I thought this might happen. Oklahoma was looking ahead to the tough Big XII schedule. Arkansas, who is pretty much dead in the water in the weak SEC, is looking to revenge last year’s loss in Norman. I still think Oklahoma will snag a #1 seed – they'll still do very well, and at this point, the other options are 3 Big East teams, or a 2/2 split between the Big East and ACC. However, Blake Griffin will have to step it up in-conference

Butler 72, UAB 68; Dayton 66, George Mason 62
UAB scheduled a tough team, Dayton scheduled a decent team. UAB lost, and still has nothing to show for it, except for the A+ in effort that they’ve received all year. Dayton wins, and lives to see another day.

Wright St. 71, Cleveland State 62; Southern Miss 78, Ole Miss 59; San Diego 64, Mississippi St 61 OT; Chattanooga 99, Niagara 84
Goodbye Cleveland St., Goodbye Ole Miss, Goodbye Mississippi St, Goodbye Niagara. Your outside shots of making the tournament? Gone. The Vikings may still be on the bubble in March, but I doubt they’ll make it in. Moreover, the two Mississippi losses make the SEC a weaker conference, negating the benefits of the Arkansas win. The Niagara loss just assures the MAAC of being a one-bid conference.

BYU 74, Tulsa 68
BYU is known as a team that can’t win on the road. They did here however – probably the reason they scheduled this game.

And tonight's games - a pretty good slate.

North Carolina @ Nevada
North Carolina, showing off their “Anyone, anywhere” philosophy. When I saw this game on their schedule, I mentally noted this as one of a few places the Tarheels might stumble. I still believe this. So far, UNC’s three closest games have been Notre Dame (the best team they’ve played), UPenn (the first game of the season), and UC-Santa Barbara (their only other road game). I expect that the Wolfpack faithful will prove a bit fiercer than those of UCSB.

Gonzaga @ Utah
Gonzaga is on a two game losing streak, but they are still one of the best teams around. However, a loss at a tough Utah team could be devastating to their high seed hopes. Utah, meanwhile, is playing for their lives here. They have almost no shot at winning the Mountain West Tournament, and their projected resume leaves a lot to be desired. A win here would be necessary to even get them back in the tournament discussion.

UNLV @ Louisville
UNLV rocked Arizona at home, could they do the same to Louisville on the road? Probably not, since UNLV enjoys one of the largest home court advantages. But you never know - a win here would be a boon to the Rebels.

Evansville @ Illinois St.
Another matchup of top teams from the Valley. Evansville showed that they are real against Drake. If the Aces can win here, they can relax for a bit.

Iowa @ Ohio St.; Michigan St. @ Minnesota; Northwestern @ Penn St.; Wisconsin @ Michigan
The Big 10 is probably one of the biggest question marks at this point. This might help clear the waters (or muddy them more).

EDIT: Bother. I was just looking at Arkansas (something I should have done substantially earlier), and I was shocked. They might be able to parley the Oklahoma win into a tournament bid. Also, Michigan St. - Minnesota was 2-2 after 6:30. Oh Big 10, how I hate you.

29th Wrap-up

2008-12-29T23:08:00.003-05:00

Georgetown 74, Connecticut 63:
So, I'm out visiting relatives this week. Imagine my dismay when, of all times, they pick 7:00 for dinner. 7:00 - the one time that I pleaded they not schedule anything for. I dashed back to the hotel after dinner, and went to the bar, only to discover that the hotel doesn't get ESPN2. Major lack of planning here. *Winces* I'll get my taste of elite Big East basketball soon. In any case - for all you out there that doubted Hoya might (Ahem, CJ), here's your proof, in Hartford. I'm actually worried for my Irish now - no student section + no South Bend support (since it is a weeknight) = a quiet JACC = Georgetown headed for a victory.

Davidson 79, Charleston 75
Briefly considered ditching the family to attend this game. Wish I had. The hotel doesn't get the U either, and I was tired enough not to go searching for it. I spent the final 2 minutes of this game yelling at the computer screen to update faster, especially when Lovedale fouled out. Davidson should go undefeated in conference, but here's a question. Does the College of Charleston have a shot at making the tournament? They could make a similar argument to Davidson of last year (well, not undefeated, but only losses to Davidson is almost the same thing).

Memphis 60, Cincinnati 45
I talked about this yesterday. Memphis stays in the bubble hunt. Cincinnati still gasping for air. Note: if not for a last second free throw by Cincy, each team would have scored the same amount of points in the first and second half.

Santa Clara 83, Belmont 80
How cruel, for Santa Clara to defeat such a nice Belmont team. Belmont better be careful, or they may take Navy's spot on the 16 line. On a related note, how unlucky is Belmont? If you ignore the 14 point loss at Pitt, they have lost 4 games by a total of 8 points - 2 to Austin Peay, 1 to Jacksonville, 2 to Tennessee, and 3 here to Santa Clara. *Wince* I wouldn't want to be the team matched up against them in the first round.

Baylor 79, Portland St 66
Well... I'm sure you can find something positive about this loss. But Portland St. should probably just focus on not losing in the Big Sky.

CSU-Northridge defeats CSU-Fullerton
So, I'm not staying up just to see the final score of this game, which is 80-58 with 5 to go. Just know that a CSU-Northridge win @ CSU-Fullerton puts them firmly in the challenger spot.

Cornell 89, Boston U 59
America East, you are the weak link in the chain. For your crimes, you are relegated to the 16-seed line.

I'll try to wake up early and do previews for the next two days. No promises, though. I think you'll live if I don't.

28th Wrap, 29th Games of Import

2008-12-29T10:26:00.004-05:00

Here's what happened last night:

Evansville 76, Drake 65:
Well, we now know that Evansville *should* challenge for the MVC crown. I know, I know yada yada they can't keep it up for the whole year. But thats what they said about Drake LAST year. However, the games at SIU and Drake could be interesting.

Florida St. 82, Western Kentucky 69:
Florida St. keeps their hopes alive. In fact, at this point, the Noles have a pretty good resume. But, as a wise blogger said last year, someone has to win the games, and someone has to lose the games, and the rest of the season looks not at all promising for Florida St . Meanwhile, Western Kentucky's slim at-large hopes have faded.

Stanford 111, Texas Tech 66: What a blow-out! Stanford is now 9-0! With... 0 good wins. Sheesh. Schedule some better OOC teams, especially when your conference has two teams that are going to drag you down.

Iowa St. 71, Houston 67: A second bad loss for Houston probably puts them out of reach of the tournament. Also, how much do the Cyclones wish they had that Hawaii win now? 9-3 and only one bad loss would have been manageable entering the conference schedule.

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69: Indiana is bad. This is a very disappointing loss.

Finally! After a long hiatus, we have a day with several great games on tap.

Georgetown @ Connecticut: The game of the night – Georgetown begins a run of three difficult games, which will help determine whether they are deserving of the #1 spot in the Pomeroy Rankings (actually, UNC probably won’t hold that spot for a few more games, simply because they’ve been playing their back-ups so much). I really don’t have anything to say here, other than noting that it should be a great game, and we’ll evaluate these two tomorrow.

Cincinnati @ Memphis: If you just look at the names involved in this game, then you probably won’t think much of this game. But the fact of the matter is that Cincinnati and Memphis are not at all safe. Cincinnati has decent wins over UAB and UNLV, but they are still headed for a pretty bad conference record – besides the free wins over Depaul, Rutgers, and St. John’s, I wouldn’t count on anything. As for Memphis – while they haven’t had any bad losses, they haven’t had any decent wins either.

Temple @ Villanova: This game will determine whether Villanova had a good non-conference season or a bad one. With a win, they can be perceived as a team that beat everyone they were supposed to, and lost to the only elite team they played. With a loss, then Nova will be seen as underachievers. Temple would like this game very much. Two straight losses have made the Tennessee win a distant memory, and a 3-3 road mark isn’t going to wow anyone. A win over Villanova would right their ship, and put them in position to snag a tournament bid with a decent, upset-less conference run.

Davidson @ College of Charleston: Davidson has 9 days to sit and think about their blowout loss against Purdue. This isn’t a bad team, and they’ve got the win over West Virginia to prove it. However, this College of Charleston team is going to be the best chance of losing in-conference this year. Only one other SoCon team besides these two is in the top 200 – Western Carolina, who Davidson gets at home.

Portland St. @ Baylor: Portland St. might have a viable shot at a 12 seed if they can get a win here.

Boston @ Cornell: This game will probably help decide whether America East or Cornell is placed on the 16 seed line. That’s about the extent of why this game is important

Hopefully I'm run through all of the conferences over the next few days, but don't count on it. I'll be travelling the next few days, so I don't know what will happen. Hopefully I'll be able to make a post about the nine games I've identified as important during the time that I am away.

First Brackets are Always Most Painful

2008-12-28T20:20:00.006-05:00

So, I went through today, and played out how I thought the rest of the season was going to go. And then I did this whole prediction thing. Now, some things may seem wacky. Others, just right. Okay, a lot of things will seem wacky. I dare you to challenge my logic. Ask me why I put someone above someone else. All you can do is require me to clarify my thinking, and possibly change how I think someone will fall.

Reminder: This is a projection out to the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended today.

1: North Carolina (ACC), Connecticut (Big East), Oklahoma (Big XII), Pittsburgh
2: Texas, Georgetown, Duke, Illinois (Big 10)
3: Purdue, Clemson, Michigan, UCLA (Pac-10)
4: Tennessee (SEC), Kansas, West Virginia, Arizona
5: Ohio St., Missouri, Kentucky, Arizona St
6: Butler (Horizon), Michigan St., Syracuse, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: Baylor, Xavier (A-10), Villanova, Notre Dame
8: Washington, Washington St, Wake Forest, Miami (FL)
9: California, Davidson (Southern), Northwestern, Creighton (MWC)
10: BYU, Minnesota, Louisville, Memphis (C-USA)
11: Utah St. (WAC), Maryland, Florida, Evansville
12: Dayton, Cleveland St., Kansas St., UNLV (MWC)
13: Miami (OH) (MAC), Portland St. (Big Sky), Niagara (MAAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
14: Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial), Virginia Military Institute (Big South), Lamar (Southland), Jacksonville St. (Ohio Valley)
15: North Dakota St. (Summit), Pacific (Big West), Albany (American East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Cornell (Ivy), Morgan St. (MEAC), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), Navy (Patriot), Texas Southern (SWAC)

Note: I project that UNLV will win the Mountain West Tournament on their home floor, since they do ridiculously well at home.

First Five Out: LSU, Illinois St., Marquette, Boston College, Southern Cal
Next Five Out: St. Mary's, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, Stanford, San Diego St

Bracket

December 27th Wrap-up

2008-12-28T13:06:00.003-05:00

Running behind today. Hopefully will get a seed list out later, as well as finishing up the one-bids.

LSU 64, Washington St. 52
Alright, I was wrong. Happy? At halftime, these two teams had combined for 10-40 shooting. Pathetic. As a friend of mine said, this is what happens when you combine bad shooters and good defense. Bah – LSU gets their win, Wazzu gets relegated to the “Haven’t beaten anyone” bin.

Louisville 82, UAB 62
Louisville gets a much-needed decent win, after failing against Minnesota and Western Kentucky. UAB fails in that same endeavor. The Blazers really needs a win over Butler now to have a shot at making the tournament, which they will probably still need, since the conference tournament runs through Memphis.

West Virginia 76, Ohio St. 48
Holy crap. Either Lighty was that important, or Bob Huggins is an excellent coach. Seriously – Ohio St. was a top 15 team, that was heading for a spot in the top two lines. But a top team does NOT LOSE AT HOME by 30 points. But what worries me more is that the Buckeyes just stopped near the end of the game. This win also establishes West Virginia as a team on the rise in the Big East – not something that anyone in the conference wanted to hear.

Portland St. 63, Texas Southern 55; St. Mary’s 87, San Jose St. 78
Two games that were much tougher than they needed to be. But, both of these West Coast Wonders pulled it out.

One-Bids (part one)

2008-12-27T14:15:00.002-05:00

Ivy – After having at least one decent team for years, the Ivy League is having a down year. Only Cornell seems to be having any flashes of decency, almost winning at St. Joe’s, and keeping it reasonable at Minnesota and Syracuse. But losing by 15 to IU? 11 to St. John’s? Big Red should win the conference easily, but expect nothing higher than a 15.

Patriot – While American was an early favorite to shock major conference teams, it just hasn’t happened, and they’ve been pounded by Oklahoma and Georgetown. Moreover, Navy has looked surprisingly solid, almost winning at Villanova. Lehigh has also been a bit of a surprise – ranked 206 in the Pomeroy Rankings. However, it should be noted that that has come against the 322nd schedule, so they may be a bit worse. I’m still going to call this a two horse race, with the winner garnering a 15-seed and a tournament beatdown.

Southern - I hear you out there. “But Bryce! If Davidson wins out, and loses in the conference championship, then surely the Southern Conference will be a two bid conference.” And so it would be. But Davidson won’t beat Duke, and they won’t have a big win on their record. Moreover, if they don't get the autobid, then they’ll have a bad loss. That’s why the SoCon is still a one bid conference. However, Davidson should have nothing to fear – the only team with a halfway decent chance of beating the Wildcats is the College of Charleston, and for the first time in forever, the conference tourney isn't in Charleston - its in Chattanooga.

Big South – There has been a changing of the guard in the Big South. UNC-Asheville is subpar minus Kenny George. High Point has fallen off their role of perennial runner-ups. And Winthrop, banner-waver of the conference, is a woeful 1-9, and ranked 301 in the Pomeroy rankings – a far cry from 06-07, when they ran the conference, and defeated Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament. So who does that leave? Liberty and VMI. Liberty is about 10 points away from an excellent 12-1 record. Instead, they are 9-4, with no shot of an at-large bid. VMI started out the year with that upset over Kentucky, and continue to play their up-tempo style of catch, shoot, and little defense. Expect one of these two to be playing in March.

NEC, MEAC, SWAC – Lets not kid ourselves. The representatives of these conferences are headed for 16 seeds. It will be whatever school decides to hang tough and win the conference tournament. I’m not even going to attempt to predict these. (Well, the NEC rep might make 15. If, like, the A-Sun, Big South, and Southland Champions all come from the bottom of the league.) (Thus I draw irate hate mail from Mt. St. Mary’s fans, despite their 0-2 start to conference play).

3 Day Plan

2008-12-24T17:10:00.003-05:00

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday:
Fairfield @ UConn – Not really important. Just the ONLY game scheduled over those three days.

Saturday 27th:
West Virginia @ Ohio St. – West Virginia doesn’t have that signature win yet, and could pick it up here. A win @ OSU (the same Ohio St. team that beat Notre Dame on a neutral court) would lift the Mountaineers to fill the void left by Louisville. Ohio St, on the other hand, has an inside track to a 1 or 2 seed. So long as they keep winning, they should be fine.

UAB @ Louisville – Louisville needs a game to get back on track, after the tough losses to WKU and Minnesota. UAB, however, needs this win a bit more desperately. Without it, they’re going to have a really hard time making it to the tournament.

Washington St. @ LSU – What? You still think LSU is for real? You still think they have a shot at making the tournament? Here, let Wazzu dispel those illusions for you.

Since we have a two-day spot with no games, I think now would be an appropriate time to look at where we stand in terms of March. Since this (supposedly) requires looking at all 344 teams, I will be dividing this up into nine segments:
1. The Definite One-Bids
2. Western 1-4 bids (WCC/WAC/MWC)
3. Central 1-4 bids (Horizon/MVC/MAC)
4. Eastern 1-4 bids (A-10/C-USA/MAAC)
5. Weak Power Conferences (Pac-10/SEC)
6. Big East
7. Big 10
8. Big XII
9. ACC
I reserve the right to combine the last four. This may last through the playing of more games, but I'll try to get them all completed. Hopefully a bracket will get out? Who knows.

Let-down Games

2008-12-24T15:14:00.002-05:00

First, this week’s blogger’s top 25. Yea, go ahead and ridicule me for Maryland/Michigan. But I see nothing wrong with them.

So what were the ramifications of last night?

Portland St. 77, Gonzaga 70:
This wasn’t a game Gonzaga was supposed to lose. They were supposed to win the rest of their games (except maybe Tennessee), and get a top 3 seeding in the tournament. However, if you pop over to the bracket matrix, you can see that those brackets updated today are showing the Zags at a 4 or 5 seed. On the flip side, Portland St. is now looking at a respectable 13 seed, provided they win out except for Baylor. If they do manage to beat Baylor, then they’ll be looking at an 12, or perhaps an 11 with a respectable Bracketbuster victim – not bad for a team that was Jayhawk fodder last year. In any case, any Big Sky loss will be a bad one that will take them out of the running, so don’t expect a surprise two-bid conference.

Butler 74, Xavier 65:
Are you kidding me? If this doesn’t get Butler respect, nothing will. Combined with the beatdown suffered against Duke, expect Xavier to fall out of the public consciousness for a while – at least until they pound Virginia on the road in a week and a half. This will hurt Xavier’s eventual tournament seeding, but Butler is still a respectable team to lose to – better quality than anyone else in the A-10, anyways.

Arizona 84, Kansas 67:
Kansas misses another opportunity to shine. They still have opportunities in Tennessee and Michigan St., but failing those they’ll be on the bubble come March. Arizona on the other hand can probably breathe a bit easier now. Out of the mysterious Pac-10 teams (UA, UW, WSU, USC, Cal), they are probably in the best shape.

Texas 74, Wisconsin 69; Illinois 75, Missouri 59:
I really don’t have anything particularly insightful to say about either of these games. Texas continues to show that they are a top team. Wisconsin continues to give us reasons to be wary. Illinois gets a win to be proud of. Missouri fails (again) to get a win to be proud of.

UMBC 66, Nebraska 64:
When Nebraska beat Creighton earlier this year, I thought that Nebraska had a shot to make it to the tournament for the first time in 11 years. Last year they made the NIT as a 1-seed, so perhaps this was their shot. Now, however, with losses to Oregon St. and UMBC, they’re probably done (although, as Kentucky showed last year, power-conference teams can do anything with a strong conference run).

Iona 67, Hofstra 64:
You just can’t lose a game at home to an inferior opponent when you’re leading by 4 with a minute to go. Though Hofstra hadn’t beaten any quality opponents, they were still in line for the “we haven’t had too many bad losses card”. That play is now gone.

Siena 71, Buffalo 60:
Buffalo probably didn’t have a shot before this game, and this game might have sealed the deal. They’d need a pretty incredible run, plus a decent Bracketbuster game, to have any shot at an at-large. Meanwhile, Siena keeps chugging along.

Stanford 77, Santa Clara 69; St. Mary’s 74, Pacific 65; Niagara 83, St. Bonaventure 65:
Although not the highest level of opponent, each team picks up a road win here, which will be looked at come March. For St. Mary’s, this is the 7th straight win, all away from Moraga, including avenging last year’s Bracketbuster loss to Kent St. For Niagara, this is the 4th straight road win, important for this Purple Eagle team barely hanging on to tournament aspirations.

I will be travelling over the next few days, so I’m not sure how much of an Internet connection I’ll have. So I’m going to try to get ahead for the next few days. I’ll be posting those later when I get finished with them.

Extended Absence

2008-12-23T14:32:00.004-05:00

My (probably non-existent readers):

I am sorry for my extended absence from this blog. As of now, I am returning, and I plan to break down each game with some modicum of importance each day. As the non-conference season comes to a close, I will also be checking in on each conference, and giving my predictions.

So, for today:

Butler @ Xavier: Two mid-major teams that will make the tournament. This is a battle for seeding, and for national respect. Xavier is looking to rebound after their blowout loss to Duke, while Butler is still searching for that win to hang their hat on. Winner gets a spot in the top 25 next week (barring embarrassing losses).

Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis): Right now, Illinois has its road win over Vanderbilt, and a tough home loss (by two) to Clemson, while Missouri has a neutral court win over USC and a loss to Xavier. Both seem to be in prime position for a 6-9 seed, although with strong pushes could make it even higher. That push has to begin tonight.

Texas @ Wisconsin: Texas is acting the same way they did last year - beating some top teams, losing to others, and winning all the games they should. This game will determine whether they are close to a 3-4 or a 6-7. Wisconsin needs this win badly - their best win was against Virginia Tech (who will struggle to make the NIT). On the other side, they really haven't had bad losses, but without a win here, they'll need a pretty solid run in a surprisingly strong Big 10 to get off the bubble.

Kansas @ Arizona: Arizona and Kansas are definitely on the bubble right now - Arizona by virtue of their inability to win on the road (see: UNLV, TAMU), and Kansas because of their loss to UMass in KC (and lack of major wins). While each team may be on the right side of the bubble, a win here would be nice.

Buffalo @ Siena: Buffalo is in the logjam atop the MAC East, and as long as Evansville continues to do well, has nothing to fear from that loss. A win here would continue them on their path to an at-large bid. Siena was thought to be vying for an at-large bid this year, if for some reason (Niagara) they didn't win the MAAC, but right now they essentially need to win out (except for the championship) to snag an at-large (a feat that would include a win at Phog!).

St. Mary's @ Pacific: Both teams would really like to win this game. St. Mary's needs this win to keep it on track for an at-large bid to the tournament, while Pacific, an early frontrunner in the Big West Conference, is looking for one of those prized 13 seeds (well, prized for one-bid conferences, anyways).

Its that time of year again

2008-11-14T02:07:00.003-05:00

Yes, I know I've been a slacker. Duke and UCLA are already 2-0, and I've yet to make my first post of the year. Forgive me - I've had a stressful past few weeks.

Thus, despite my best intentions, I did not manage to get out a preseason bracket. I could have done a half-assed job, and presented it to you, but you don't deserve that. Therefore, I chose not to do one.

I will try to give my take on the important games of the night (as determined by me). I will not publish a bracket until mid-December at earliest, but mid-January at latest.

Also - do any of you remember the old buildabracket.net website? I remember it being pretty cool, with the different font colors representing how confidently they could be projected into the bracket, the death days of the various teams (the point at which it required a major miracle to get back into the postseason talk), the phoenixes (previously dead teams that have resurrected). I'm thinking about starting this back up - I don't think I'm violating any laws, since I'm neither profiting, nor were the ideas copyrighted. In addition, I'd like to do it because I thought they had a good thing going, and then they quit on it. So be looking for that.

Anyways, moving on to tonights games:

Rider vs. St. Joseph's - By all rights, Rider should have made the tournament last year, but got knocked off by the other decent MAAC team. Now, the elder Thompson graduated, but if Rider can start off strong with a win, there may be a push for a two-bid MAAC. Sounds crazy, right?

American @ Oklahoma - The darling semi-unknown midmajor, American Eagles, begin the season off the right way with a top fifteen team. There should be plenty of scoring - Oklahoma is a bruising inside team, while American prefers to pick off 3s from the perimeter.

Marist @ Rutgers - Burning question: Will Rutgers do anything this year? I mean, they'll finish ahead of USF, to be sure, but this game should be a good indicator of whether either team will amount to anything. If this game is close, the answer is no.

Stanford @ Yale - Notable only in location. Maybe the RPI is getting to coaches?

Missouri St. @ Auburn - Two unknown quantities for this season that could find themselves on the bubble come March. Winner gets a boost.

Also, some predictions for the year:

1. Davidson will not be as good as expected. The loss of their PG is just too great, even for Stephan Curry.

2. UNC will win the ACC by at least two games.

3. At least one of the Big East Big Four (UConn, Louisville, Pitt, ND) will suffer a devastating injury, which will have a heavy impact on seeding (like Pitt of last year).

4. The SWAC will continue to be bad. Like, less than 10 DI Non-conference wins bad.

5. NJIT will become a story if it continues its losing streak.

6. The WCC, MVC, and A-10 will be the only non-Big 6 conferences to get multiple bids.

7. The Big East will have 10 teams in the tournament or on the bubble come March.

8. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will both have a powerhouse or two, and a terrible remainder of the conference.

9. Stephen F. Austin will go undefeated, and lose in the second round of the tourney.

10. #1 seeds - UNC, UConn, UCLA, Pitt.

11. National Champions - UConn - No justification, just blatant Big East homerism. (Also, I think that Hansborough will be unpleasantly shocked by Thabeet - really, when does Hansborough have to go up against a big guy).

12. Purdue will sneak up on everyone... again.

13. I will lose sleep and fall behind on work due to this blog (free point for me!).

13 seems like a reasonable number.

New Beginnings

2008-04-04T16:20:00.002-05:00

Over this past year, I'll be talking through my thoughts about college basketball with a couple of my friends, although you rarely got to see what I was thinking. They, however, have decided to take it upon themselves to create their own blog, with a focus on basketball analysis. Starting after the Championship Game I will be joining them. My bracketology will remain over here, with the promise that everything that only pertains to bracketology (which teams are more deserving, as well as seed lists and brackets) will stay over here.

Here is a link to their website: ndirish2010.blogspot.com

I hope you will continue to read next year.

So Basically, This Blog Is Done for the Year

2008-03-22T02:47:00.001-05:00

I thought about posting previews for the tournament games... but I didn't.
I thought about posting thoughts about the games... but I didn't.

So I suppose I'll lay this to rest until late October.

And next year, I'll post more consistently, and more in-depth.
And I may try to post something AFTER Selection Sunday.

Just looking over my projected bracket

2008-03-20T09:31:00.002-05:00

I noticed that I posted the wrong.

I predicted two first round matchups:

Stanford-Cornell
Purdue-Baylor

Full Disclosure

2008-03-17T09:43:00.006-05:00

I fail again.
Out of 53 brackets this year over at the Bracket Matrix, I finished (according to the Parrish Rubric) 49th - ahead of James Worthy, Jim Colton, RPI Forecast, and Sports Projections.

Here's my Breakdown:
Teams Correct: 63
I missed Kentucky and St. Joe's (my 1st and 3rd teams out). I had in Arizona St. and Ohio St.

I was personally shocked that Arizona St. missed, but I suppose it was to be expected with their weak non-conference schedule and whatnot. However, I've heard a rumor that their RPI of 82 was the factor that kept them out. If so, then obviously the committee sees the actual RPI - something that I had been told was false. Furthermore, this would indicate that this committee took a big look at the RPI numbers - something that I would disagree with.

No complaints on Kentucky over Ohio St. - I was thinking about switching this, but I belived that the fact the Kentucky lost to Georgia in the SEC tourney would be enough keep them out. I suppose that this is a situation where I should have looked harder at the RPI.

Seeds Correct: 31
I got 11 1's, 2's, 3's correct. (missed on Xavier)
I got 6 15's and 16's correct. (I missed Portland St. and American)
Other than that:
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: 4
Drake/Clemson: 5
Southern Cal: 6
Oregon/Arkansas: 9 - I'm quite proud of these two, as I got much hate from people over my seeding for both of these.. only positive in my whole seed list.
Temple: 12
Winthrop/Oral Roberts: 13
Cornell, Boise St., CSU-Fullerton: 14

Seeds within 1 line: 46
Xavier - Me: 4, Them: 3
ND - Me: 4, Them: 5
WSU - Me: 5, Them: 4
West Virginia - Me: 5, Them: 6
Oklahoma - Me: 7, Them: 6
Purdue - Me: 7, Them: 6
Gonzaga - Me: 8, Them: 7
St. Mary's - Me: 11, Them: 10
South Alabama - Me: 11, Them: 10
San Diego - Me: 12, Them: 13
George Mason - Me: 13, Them: 12
Western Kentucky - Me: 13, Them: 12
Siena - Me: 14, Them: 13
Portland St. - Me: 15, Them: 16
American - Me: 16, Them: 15

This leaves 17 teams I missed badly on seeding.

Marquette: Me: 3, Them: 6 - I'm not quite sure why they dropped so low. In retrospect, I can see why Xavier should have been swapped with Marquette on the seed list, and possibly moving them below ND, but I maintain that Marquette has a better resume than Pitt.

Butler: Me: 5, Them: 7 - This one seems pretty clear to me why they were lower than expected. Throughout the year, people noticed that Butler had hardly any good wins. However, the popular consensus was that Butler would get a boost because it was evident that they had attempted to schedule good teams. Obviously, this was not the case.

Vanderbilt: Me: 6, Them: 4 - If I hadn't counted their loss their to Alabama so much, they might have been a 5. I don't know on this one - I think its possible that they got a gift. Other than West Virginia and Butler, I really don't see anyone above them on the seed list that I would have pushed them above.

Indiana: Me: 6, Them: 8 - They might have gotten hosed - however, looking back, I should have put Oklahoma ahead of them. This would have made Indiana a 7 (within one seed line) and made Oklahoma just right. I really should have gone through my seed list a second time.

Texas A&M: Me: 7, Them: 9 - I don't know. Maybe I just overrate Big XII teams.

Michigan St: Me: 7, Them: 5 - This one, I can see. I really screwed up on Michigan St - Undervaluing their good wins, overvaluing their bad losses.

Davidson: Me: 8, Them: 10 - See bit about Butler. The committee apparently doesn't care whether you tried to schedule hard, just if you did anything about it.

Arizona: Me: 8, Them: 10 - Behind Oregon? This I don't understand - Not the seeding, but the relative order.

Kansas St./Baylor: Me: 9, Them: 11 - Further evidence that I overrate Big XII teams. I'll need to remember this for next year. I think that there was no Big XII rep on the committee, so that may have been a factor.

Miami (FL): Me: 10, Them: 7 - I don't understand this one either. The Bracket Matrix average was 9, so it shows that I wasn't alone.

BYU: Me: 10, Them: 8
UNLV: Me: 11, Them: 8 - The committee thought more highly of the MWC than I thought

Mississippi St: Me: 10, Them: 8 - This one I really don't understand. Their best win was Arkansas, and they had losses against UGA and SIU. Perhaps Conference tourney losses don't hurt that much?

Villanova: Me: 10, Them: 12 - My Big East bias, possibly

Georgia: Me: 12, Them: 14 - I'm impressed here. I thought that the committee would be lazy, and merely sub Georgia in for another major conference team. Instead, they made up a full bracket, with Georgia in at a reasonable seed. Kudos to the committee.

Kent St: Me: 12, Them: 9 - I really don't understand this one. Kent St. has a very similar profile to Butler - if Butler had 3 losses to teams outside the top 200. I'll have to look at this one more closely.

So, in short:
1) The committee doesn't care if you tried to schedule well and failed (Butler and Davidson).
2) However, they do care if you didn't try to schedule well (Arizona St.)
3) If you are a Big 6 team without committee representation, prepare to be underseeded. (Big XII)
4) Sunday surprises will be accounted for properly. (Georgia)
5) I should back away from my seed list, and then come back to it. If a team doesn't feel right, get them out (Kentucky, Ohio St.)
6) Don't listen to what popular opinions say (only 19 bracketologists had Oregon in).

Final Note: I cannot confirm or deny the following. However, it appears that Joe Lunardi may have switched Villanova and Virginia Tech at 5:50 - AFTER ESPN got their copy of the brackets. This is supported by the fact that earlier in the afternoon, Nova was 3rd out, and VT was 2nd in. If this is true, this seems quite dishonest. If someone has evidence that this did or did not happen, I would appreciate it.

Bracket - Just for Kicks - 10 Minutes

2008-03-16T16:44:00.004-05:00

Teams moved to fulfill Bracket Requirements
UP: Villanova, USC, BYU
DOWN: Clemson, Baylor, Oregon

Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – American (Patriot)
9 – Arkansas (SEC)
8 - Arizona
Tampa, Florida
5 – Southern Cal
12 – Kent St. (MAC)
13 – Siena (MAAC)
4 - Connecticut
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Cornell (IVY)
11 – St. Mary’s
6 – West Virginia
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 - Purdue
10 - Baylor
15 – Maryland-Baltimore County (America East)
2 – Duke

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA (Pac-10)
16 – Northwestern St. (Southland)
9 – BYU
8 - Gonzaga
Denver, Colorado
5 – Drake (MVC)
12 – Temple (A-10)
13 – Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
4 – Notre Dame
Washington, D.C.
3 - Marquette
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Ohio St.
6 - Vanderbilt
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – Michigan St.
10 – Miami (FL)
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – North Carolina (ACC)
16 – Play-in (Mount St. Mary’s vs. Mississippi Valley St.)
9 – Kansas St.
8 – Arizona St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Butler (Horizon)
12 – Virginia Tech
13 – George Mason (CAA)
4 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
Washington, D.C.
3 - Louisville
14 – CSU-Fullerton (Big West)
11 – UNLV (MWC)
6 – Indiana
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Texas A&M
10 - Villanova
15 – Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
2 – Tennessee

Detroit Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Memphis (CUSA)
16 – Coppin St. (MEAC)
9 – Oregon
8 – Davidson (SoCon)
Tampa, Florida
5 – Washington St.
12 – UNLV (MWC)
13 – Oral Roberts (Summit)
4 – Xavier (A-10)
Omaha, Nebraska
3 – Wisconsin (Big 10)
14 – Boise St. (WAC)
11 – Illinois St.
6 - Clemson
Birmingham, Alabama
7 - Oklahoma
10 – Mississippi St.
15 – Portland St. (Big Sky)
2 – Georgetown

20 minutes!!! FINAL SEED LIST

2008-03-16T16:39:00.004-05:00

Bracket Project Guy - Take this one.
Georgia Won, so VT is out. As noted earlier, I swapped South Alabama and Illinois St.

1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas
2: Texas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, Ohio St., South Alabama, UNLV
12: Georgia, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, UT-Arlington, Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, Illinois St., St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU

Bracket, 15.75 hours til Selection Sunday

2008-03-16T01:15:00.007-05:00

Here is my first published bracket in two months. If Texas, Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Northwestern St. win, this will be my final bracket. I'd like to point out that either Georgetown or Duke is going to get screwed with respect to location - G'town's closest pod is in Raleigh.
The following teams were moved up or down a seed line to fulfill bracket requirements:
UP: USC, BYU, Villanova, UNLV, Siena
DOWN: Clemson, Baylor, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Winthrop

Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – American (Patriot)
9 – Arkansas (SEC)
8 - Arizona
Tampa, Florida
5 – Southern Cal
12 – Kent St. (MAC)
13 – Siena (MAAC)
4 - Connecticut
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Cornell (IVY)
11 – St. Mary’s
6 – West Virginia
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 - Purdue
10 - Baylor
15 – Maryland-Baltimore County (America East)
2 – Duke

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA (Pac-10)
16 – Northwestern St. (Southland)
9 – BYU
8 - Gonzaga
Denver, Colorado
5 – Drake (MVC)
12 – Virginia Tech
13 – Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
4 – Notre Dame
Washington, D.C.
3 - Marquette
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Ohio St.
6 - Vanderbilt
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – Michigan St.
10 – Miami (FL)
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – North Carolina (ACC)
16 – Play-in (Mount St. Mary’s vs. Mississippi Valley St.)
9 – Kansas St.
8 – Arizona St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Butler (Horizon)
12 – Temple (A-10)
13 – George Mason (CAA)
4 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
Washington, D.C.
3 - Louisville
14 – CSU-Fullerton (Big West)
11 – UNLV (MWC)
6 – Indiana
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Texas A&M
10 - Oregon
15 – Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
2 – Tennessee

Detroit Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Memphis (CUSA)
16 – Coppin St. (MEAC)
9 – Villanova
8 – Davidson (SoCon)
Tampa, Florida
5 – Washington St.
12 – San Diego (WCC)
13 – Oral Roberts (Summit)
4 – Xavier (A-10)
Omaha, Nebraska
3 – Wisconsin (Big 10)
14 – Boise St. (WAC)
11 – South Alabama
6 - Clemson
Birmingham, Alabama
7 - Oklahoma
10 – Mississippi St.
15 – Portland St. (Big Sky)
2 – Georgetown

16 Hours until the Selection Show

2008-03-16T01:11:00.003-05:00

Its almost that time again. Some quick thoughts:
UCLA, UNC, and Memphis are all but assured of one seeds. The bubble starts at Arizona St. – that is, I would not be overly surprised to see any of them out. As I said yesterday, if Virginia Tech is competitive against UNC, they’ll get in. They did so – just one problem. Because of the way the bubble teams played, VT is the last team in. If either Georgia or Illinois wins their respective tournaments, then VT is out again, unless I change my mind and swap out Ohio St. instead. If both UGA and UI win, then both Ohio St. and Virginia Tech are out. No questions asked.
Texas and Kansas will be 4 and 5 overall, with the winner getting the 4 and the loser getting the 5. Besides this, the Southland championship, and the aforementioned scenarios involving Illinois, Georgia, VT, and OSU, nothing should change. If Texas, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Northwestern St. all win, this will be my final seed list.
Kentucky fans have to be in serious pain. I mean, all they had to do was not lose against bad teams, and they’d be golden. And they lost to the worst team in the SEC. Sheesh. Arkansas fans do not have to have similar worries, since Sunday championships have very little impact on the bracket. And to all those Arkansas fans out there – I’m paying attention. I maintain that they were out before the Vandy win, an 11 before the Tennessee win, and are now a 9.
My bracket will be coming out shortly. I just need to make sure there are no conflicts.
Italics now mean that the conference has NOT had their championship yet.

EDIT: After much deliberation, I decided to swap Illinois St and South Alabama. Also, I decided this about the conference tourneys: If Georgia wins, they replace VT. If Illinois wins, they replace Ohio St. If Texas-KU goes to overtime, Texas gets the 1 seed.
1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Texas
2: Kansas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, South Alabama, Ohio St., Virginia Tech
12: UNLV, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, Northwestern ST., Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, South Alabama, St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU
New Teams In: Temple, Boise St, Coppin St, Virginia Tech, UNLV
Old Teams Out: St. Joe’s, New Mexico St, Morgan St, Kentucky, Illinois St.
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10, ACC
4: SEC
3: WCC
2: MWC, Sun Belt, A-10

Seed List through PI Day

2008-03-15T01:30:00.004-05:00

Too tired to comment. Will remark on today’s events… tomorrow evening? Didn’t manage to complete a bracket, but I did make a list of the top four seed by region (yes, Tennessee will snipe the 1 seed in the North Carolina Regional). I can say that with the losses today, there are only 5 teams left on my bubble. Biggest Debate in my mind (especially if St. Joe's or Kent St. loses tomorrow): Ohio St vs. South Alabama vs. St. Joe's vs. UNLV vs. Kent St.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Xavier, Notre Dame, Drake
5: Pittsburgh, Butler, Washington St., Southern Cal
6: Clemson, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Arizona, Mississippi St., Davidson
9: Oregon, Kansas St., Arizona St., BYU
10: Baylor, Miami (FL), Villanova, Kentucky
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Arkansas, Ohio St.
12: South Alabama, St. Joe's, Kent St., San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Cal-State Fullerton, New Mexico St
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: Morgan St, American, Northwestern ST., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
Last Five Out: UNLV, VT , Dayton, Syracuse, VCU,
New Teams In: St. Joe's, Arkansas, CSU-Fullerton, Northwestern St.
Old Teams Out: Dayton, UNLV, UC-Santa Barabara, Stephen F. Austin
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10, SEC
4: ACC
3: WCC
2: A-10, MVC, Sun Belt

Texas Regional:
1. Memphis
2. Texas
3. Stanford
4. Notre Dame

Arizona Regional:
1. UCLA
2. Kansas
3. Marquette
4. Connecticut

Detroit Regional:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgetown
3. Wisconsin
4. Xavier

North Carolina Regional:
1. Tennessee
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Drake

Seed List Through Thursday, March 13

2008-03-14T01:09:00.002-05:00

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Xavier
4: Marquette, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Drake
5: Butler, Pittsburgh, Washington St., Southern Cal
6: Vanderbilt, Clemson, Indiana, Oklahoma
7: Purdue, West Virginia, Arizona, Texas A&M
8: Michigan St., Arizona St., Gonzaga, Oregon
9: Kansas St., Mississippi St., Davidson, BYU
10: Baylor, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Villanova
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Ohio St., Kent St.
12: Dayton, UNLV, South Alabama, San Diego
13: George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Mount St. Mary's, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, St. Joe’s, Syracuse, VCU
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, New Mexico
New Teams In: South Alabama, Mount St. Mary's
Old Teams Out: Syracuse, Sacred Heart
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10
4: ACC, SEC
3: WCC
2: MWC, A-10, MVC, Sun Belt

Thoughts following Thursday, March 13

2008-03-14T01:04:00.002-05:00

First of all, I still haven't posted the link to the bloggers Big East Awards (the ones you saw earlier were my personal votes). Here is that link.

Explain something to me. ESPN said yesterday that the winner of Syracuse-Villanova was definitely in. Today, when Villanova lost a game to Georgetown, an elite team with whom they were competitive in for most of the game, suddenly Villanova’s bubble chances were fading. Any other questions as to why I don’t rely on ESPN for analysis?

I finally changed my stance regarding Syracuse due to a blogpost from Gary Parrish, linked here. I will be replacing them with South Alabama, just because I can’t bring myself to put either St. Joe’s or Arkansas in. If by some chance Syracuse does make it in… I hate each and every one of you college basketball fans who talked me out of selecting them.

Several teams bubbles burst today – Maryland losing to Boston College, Florida losing to Alabama, Texas Tech losing to Oklahoma St., Massachusetts losing to Charlotte, UAB losing to Tulsa, and New Mexico losing to Utah. Each of those teams are officially off my bubble – I am certain that none of them will make the tourney.

Other teams merely hurt their seed. Arizona St. could have used the win over USC, but instead they’ll probably have to settle for an 8 or 9 seed. Dayton is still in following their close loss to Xavier, but they will be sweating on Sunday. Villanova and Oregon are in that same situation as Dayton – probably in, but not certain, following losses to Georgetown and Washington St., respectively. Baylor will probably drop a line or two following an embarrassing loss to Colorado, but I still won’t say they are a bubble team.

UNLV almost suffered a crushing loss to TCU, one that assuredly would have dropped them from the tournament. They survived, but another close win to a bad team on their home court might cause the committee to rethink them.

So in reality, I have on my bubble what you see here, plus 3 teams: Arkansas, St. Joe’s, and Syracuse. I also have a list of teams that could potentially be at-large bids with runs to the conference final: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St. and Nebraska. Beyond that… nothing. Nada. No other team is really deserving at this point. I suppose if pressed for a fourth team, I would say VCU.

In any event, seed list to follow soon. Hopefully, I will produce a bracket Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon.

My 34

2008-03-13T03:56:00.002-05:00

On Wednesday, each committee member had to submit a list of the 34 teams they consider in. Any team that gets all but two votes get in. Note that it is my understanding that Drake and Butler would get put on these ballots, even though they already qualified. To put an end to my early morning posting, the teams I feel probably got in unanimously on this ballot, in no real order:

1. UCLA
2. Memphis
3. Tennessee
4. Duke
5. UNC
6. Texas
7. Xavier
8. Georgetown
9. Kansas
10. Louisville
11. Notre Dame
12. Connecticut
13. Wisconsin
14. Stanford
15. Purdue
16. Vanderbilt
17. Marquette
18. Clemson
19. Indiana
20. Southern Cal
21. Washington St.
22. Michigan St.
23. Drake
24. Butler
25. Pittsburgh
26. West Virginia
27. Baylor

Other teams that may have gotten in on that first ballot:

1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Arizona St.
4. Oklahoma
5. Davidson

I wish I could see the votes... it would be so interesting to see what the actual committee thinks. Perhaps they could do that, since the committee is isolated and the votes anonymous even to the committee. Alas, that would kill much of the mystique of Selection Sunday. Perhaps they could reveal the votes after the fact?

Are you Listening Boeheim?

2008-03-13T03:29:00.003-05:00

Contrary to what ESPN says, the Orange are not out.

This is how weak the bubble is - Syracuse still has a legit shot at making the tournament, because they have 2 marquee wins (G'town and Marquette) and only 1 bad loss (USF), defined by me as a loss to a team above 100 in the Colton Index

Of the teams on the bubble, only Oregon and Florida have only 1 bad loss (the rest have between 2 and 5). If you insist on calling the Arizona teams bubble teams, UA has 0, while ASU has 1.

Only Kentucky, St. Mary's, and Ohio St. have at least two marquee wins (Arizona and Arizona St. both have 3, if you insist again on calling them bubble teams).

Syracuse also has a better SOS: 33, better than any bubble teams not from the Pac-10 or Ohio St. (Texas Tech also has a better SOS, but I don't know if anyone else consider them a bubble team).

So tell me: If teams out there don't have more good wins, or fewer bad losses, or better schedules, then what do they have?

You may point to the previous snubs of the Orange(men) as evidence for them not getting in. The difference is this - the last committee didn't include a Big East Rep.

If you want to play along with ESPN and say that Syracuse has no chance, be my guest. Heck, even Boeheim has bought into the media attention. But I am of the opinion that they still have a good case for being in.

Another two Profiles to consider

2008-03-13T02:35:00.002-05:00

Team A (Bubble In)
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-2 (Win over BYU)
50-100 Record: 4-2
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 147
Last 10: 7-3

Team B (Not on Bubble)
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 0-2
50-100 Record: 8-2
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 78
Last 10: 6-4

Is a win over a team that will be no higher than a 7 seed enough to count a team as in off this bubble, especially with two losses to teams above 100 in the Colton Index? Doesn't an 8-4 Record against the top 100 sound better than a 5-4 record?

Speaking of New Mexico...

Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-4 (Win over UNLV)
50-100 Record: 2-1
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 179
Last 10: 8-2

Do you really think a team thats best win is over a team square on the bubble should be in with 2 bad losses? Me either. I get frustrated when I see other bracketologists still projecting them IN.

Alright, one thing DOES bother me.

2008-03-12T12:32:00.003-05:00

Everyone is STILL projecting team USA (South Alabama) in, despite the semi-final loss to Middle Tennessee St. at home. Obviously people can make persuasive arguments, but lets do a blind resume.

South Alabama:
Overall Record: 24-5
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-1 (Win over Mississippi St.)
50-100 Record: 2-1 (Loss to Mississippi)
100+ Losses: 3
SOS: 209

Team B
Overall Record: 21-4
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-0 (Win over Oklahoma)
50-100 Record: 0-1 (Loss to Texas Tech)
100+ Losses: 3
SOS: 278

So, obviously USA has the better profile, but they are comparable. So why is South Alabama averaging 2 seed lines higher, and in some places has been placed 5 seed lines above mystery team B? Team B isn't even being considered for the bubble in most place.

Seed List Through Tuesday, March 11/Blogpoll Through Monday

2008-03-12T12:20:00.002-05:00

I am not going to make any comments up here at the top. Last time I did that while I was tired (that is, last time I posted), I made a couple credibility destroying mistakes. I’ll not do that again, so I am forgoing any real information up here. However, here's this week's blogpoll.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Louisville, Duke, Georgetown
3: Kansas, Wisconsin, Stanford, Connecticut
4: Xavier, Notre Dame, Drake, Butler
5: Marquette, Washington St., Southern Cal, Vanderbilt
6: Clemson, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma
7: Purdue, Arizona St., Arizona, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Michigan St., Oregon, Baylor
9: Kansas St., Mississippi St., Gonzaga, Davidson
10: BYU, Syracuse, Miami (FL), Kentucky
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Villanova, Kent St.
12: Ohio St., UNLV, Dayton, San Diego
13: George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Sacred Heart, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Florida
Next Five Out: St. Joe’s, Mississippi, South Alabama, Maryland, Maryland
New Teams In: San Diego, Western Kentucky
Old Teams Out: Arkansas, South Alabama

Seed List Through Sunday, March 9

2008-03-10T18:05:00.004-05:00

A little late on my part tonight.
Drake gets their auto-bid, ending the Valley Curse. IU and Michigan St. lost to bad teams, causing a severe drop. `I take back what I said yesterday about Davidson – they may get in even if they lose to Elon. In any case, it will be close if they lose. VCU shockingly lost to W&M, so they are done. Nebraska, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech are essentially done. However, reaching the Big XII finals should be enough for any of those three, as it would require beating either KU or UT.
As someone suggested yesterday in a comment, I considered conference records today, and that led to a little movement. As noted yesterday, the “Last Four Out” is misleading, because I don’t think that those teams have much of a chance at all.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis
2: Texas, Duke, Louisville, Kansas
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Xavier, Wisconsin
4: Notre Dame, Connecticut, Drake, Butler
5: Washington St., Marquette, Southern Cal, Clemson
6: Pittsburgh, Indiana, Arizona, Oklahoma
7: Texas A&M, West Virginia, Purdue, Vanderbilt
8: Michigan St., Arizona St, Baylor, Kansas St
9: Oregon, Miami, Gonzaga, Mississippi St.
10: BYU, Syracuse, Davidson, St. Mary’s,
11: Kentucky, Villanova, Illinois St., Kent St.
12: Ohio St., Dayton, Arkansas, UNLV
13: South Alabama, George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Sacred Heart, Alabama St.Last Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Maryland, Texas Tech, Massachusetts

New Teams In: George Mason, Sacred Heart
Old Teams Out: Virginia Commonwealth, Robert Morris

Edit: I took out something I wrote about St. Mary's/San Diego, which I apparently wrote before the end of the game, and then forgot to edit after USD's amazing comeback.

Big East End of Year Award Ballot: Go Irish, Beat Famine

2008-03-10T02:10:00.002-05:00

1) Louisville
2) Georgetown
3) Notre Dame
4) Connecticut
5) Marquette
6) Pittsburgh
7) West Virginia
8) Villanova
9) Syracuse
10) Cincinnati
11) Providence
12) Seton Hall
13) Depaul
14) St. John’s
15) South Florida
16) Rutgers

Player of the Year: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

1st Team:

AJ Price, Connecticut
Jeff Adrien, Connecticut
Kentrell Gransberry, South Florida
David Padgett, Louisville
Sam Young, Pittsburgh

2nd Team:

Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati
Terrence Williams, Louisville
Donte Green, Syracuse
Brian Laing, Seton Hall

3rd Team:

Kyle Mcalarney, Notre Dame
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
Dominique Jones, South Florida
Joe Alexander, West Virginia

Freshman Of the Year: Donte Green, Syracuse

1st Team:

Dejuan Blair, Pitt
Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
Dominique Jones, USF
Dar Tucker, Depaul
Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall

2nd Team:

Mac Koshwal, Depaul
Justin Burrell, St. John’s
Corey Fisher, Villanova
Corey Chandler, Rutgers
DJ Kennedy, St. John’s
Coach of the Year: Mike Brey, Notre Dame
Defensive POY: Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
Most Improved Player: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Projected BET Champ: Louisville

2008-09 Top 3
1) Notre Dame
2) Connecticut
3) Syracuse

Hartford Seed List - Through Saturday, March 8

2008-03-09T03:37:00.002-05:00

Really, I didn’t want to put anyone in as that last seed. Arkansas doesn’t deserve it, St. Joe’s doesn’t deserve, TTU doesn’t deserve it, and UMass doesn’t deserve it. If VT can do well in the ACC tourney, they might deserve it. However, I’m just hoping that USD wins the WCC tournament, just so I don’t have to deal with that last spot. Cleveland St. from the Horizon, or any of the lower teams from the A-10 or a high-major league would also be welcome.
We now have four teams with automatic bids to the tournament – Cornell, Winthrop, Austin Peay, and Belmont. Also, because of the way the Southern Conference tournament has turned out, Davidson is no longer a shoo-in for an at-large. If you’ve been following college basketball, you probably know that Davidson has lots of wins over bad teams, no wins over good teams, and a few wins/losses against mediocre teams. The only thing keeping them in is their lack of losses against bad teams. Since Elon, College of Charleston, and UNC-Greensboro all upset their opponents, Davidson’s two remaining games would be considered bad losses, thus taking away the strongest attribute of their resume. However, this should not be a problem, since Davidson has been mowing down its opponents.
There was some movement in this seed list due to games played and re-evaluated logic. Biggest movers were Texas Tech (re-evaluation), Notre Dame (re-evaluation), Southern Cal (Big Win over Stanford), Georgetown (Big Win over Louisville), Vanderbilt (Bad loss to Alabama), and Miami (Bad Loss to Florida St.)
1: UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis
2: Texas, Duke, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Georgetown, Xavier, Connecticut
4: Wisconsin, Washington St., Indiana, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Southern Cal, Butler, Marquette
6: Clemson, Arizona, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Michigan St.
8: Arizona St, Baylor, Purdue, Oregon
9: Kansas St, Miami, Gonzaga, Mississippi St.
10: St. Mary’s, Villanova, BYU, Davidson
11: Syracuse, Illinois St., Kentucky, Kent St.
12: Maryland, Dayton, UNLV, Arkansas
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Texas Tech, Massachusetts, Virginia Tech
New Teams IN: UNLV, Dayton, Winthrop
Old Teams OUT: Texas Tech, St. Joseph’s, UNC-Asheville
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: ACC, SEC
4: Big 10
2: MVC, MWC, A-10, WCC

Seed List through Friday, March 7

2008-03-08T11:33:00.004-05:00

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Duke, UNC
2: Memphis, Texas, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Xavier, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
4: Georgetown, Connecticut, Washington St, Indiana
5: Butler, Marquette, Drake, Vanderbilt
6: Arizona, USC, Clemson, Texas A&M
7: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Michigan St., West Virginia
8: Arizona St., Miami, Baylor, Kansas St.
9: Purdue, Oregon, Mississippi St, Gonzaga
10: SMC, BYU, Davidson, Villanova
11: Illinois St, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Kentucky
12: Arkansas, Maryland, St. Joseph’s, Kent St.
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell, New Mexico St.
15: Portland St., UMBC, UNC-Asheville, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St., Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: UNLV, Dayton, Massachusetts, Nebraska
Others Considered: Ohio St., Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St, Wake Forest, Florida, New Mexico
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
5: ACC, SEC
4: Big 10
2: MVC, WCC, A-10

Seed List through Monday, March 3

2008-03-05T00:05:00.005-05:00

That's right, I'm a whole day behind. But I promise it is for a good reason. I decided to go through the steps of the selection process. However, I obviously am not 10 people. Rather, I am one. So first, I made up 4 lists - Team's Key Wins, Team's Record against RPI Top 50/100, Team's record against Pomeroy 50/100, Team's Record Against Colton 50/100. Then, I ran the selection process, if the process only had 4 people, one of whom only looked at the key wins, one of whom only looked at RPI, one of whom only looked at Pomeroy, and one of whom only looked at Colton. Like last time, I ignored conference champions (except for one to make the 12th seed line even). Here's how it turned out:

1: UCLA, Texas, Tennessee, Duke
2: UNC, Memphis, Kansas, Lousiville
3: Stanford, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Xavier
4: Washington St, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Indiana
5: Marquette, Arizona, Clemson, Michigan St.
6: Vanderbilt, USC, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Baylor, Oklahoma, Arizona St, Drake
8: Kansas St., Gonzaga, Miami (FL), Purdue
9: West Virginia, Mississippi St, Oregon, Butler
10: BYU, St. Mary’s, Nebraska, Wake Forest
11: Florida, Syracuse, Villanova, Kentucky
12: UNLV, Arkansas, Davidson, South Alabama
Last 4 Out: Maryland, Illinois St, Oklahoma St, Kent St.
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
6: SEC
5: ACC
4: Big 10
2: MWC, WCC
1: A-10, MVC, SoCon, Sun Belt, Horizon, CUSA

Since this wasn't entirely my opinion (after arranging the lists, it was all a matter of plug-and-chug), I'm not going to list the changes.

For my thoughts about this seed list/process, click the "Read More".

As expected, the process was quite long, and very tedious. I started working on this Monday night, late, worked all through the morning and afternoon, and evening... so almost 15 hours straight. And yet I may do it again, the day before Selection Sunday. If I do so, I will probably also do my own, and do a bracket.
I was shocked, really, that the A-10 only got one team in. This showed me that the worst case scenario has occurred - the worst teams in the league beating the best teams, and creating a muddied middle where all teams either have a dismal OOC resume or a dismal in-conference resume.
Davidson actually made it in as the 45th team, but when going through the seeding procedures was moved to the "Last team in" Slot. I don't think this will happen during the actual selection process. If Davidson is in, then they'll probably be an 11, just because the seeding procedures allow for more "whos better than who" thinking.
Could the Big East really get 9 teams in? Syracuse and Villanova hold tenuous positions, but I think they could do it. 6 BEast teams in the first 6 lines, which means 6 locks. WV is on the 9-line, and should be in unless they happen to draw Depaul, Provy, SJU, or SHU in the 1st round of the BET and lose in that 1st round.
As for Syracuse and Villanova - each has winnable regular season games left, and probably should also win their first round game if they want to feel safe (although at this point they could theoretically face each other).
SEC with 6 teams? Really? This could change easily in the next week and a half, with 3 teams firmly on the bubble.
We all know that Duke-UNC will probably be a battle for a one seed. Each team, however, needs to pray for Tennessee to fall as much as possible. Otherwise, the Duke-UNC loser will be the team rewarded with Charlotte, not the winner.
I'm not sure why Arizona St., Nebraska, and Texas A&M don't get any love. Or why Drake, Butler, USA, BYU, Purdue, and UNLV get so much love. Actually, I see a pattern here (ignoring Purdue). Year after year we hear sob stories about mid-majors who got snubbed, or about how such-and-such smaller team would totally own all the major conference teams if they just got the opportunity (and to the East Coast, the MWC might as well be a mid-major conference, even though they are not). Thus, bracketologists start subconsciously boosting mid-majors while devaluing major-conference teams. This fails for one reason: the committee. 4 committee members represent major conferences, and you can sure as shootin' believe that they'll pick another major conference team over a mid-major that could potentially embarrass a school they represent. Of the other 6, some will feel for the other mid-major schools, while the rest will only look out for the best interest of the schools they represent. Because of this division, the mid-majors (plus the MWC) get screwed.
As for Purdue... I'm not sure how they ended up as an 8. Oh, right... its because they kept failing to advance to the "vote on seeding stage". They'd get selected as one of those 8 by two "people", and then the other two wouldn't. I expect the the Boilermakers will be closer to a 6 on March 16th.

Thoughts from today

2008-03-01T22:05:00.002-05:00

Now that I'm done correcting my earlier mistakes from my seed list, here are my reflections from another Saturday full of college basketball:

I laughed when I saw an ESPN headline saying that the Syracuse loss today to Pittsburgh burst their bubble. That was obviously written by someone who hasn't the faintest idea how weak this years bubble is.

There were, however, several teams who, in my opinion, burst their bubbles today:

Ohio St., losing at Minnesota
Nebraska, losing at Oklahoma St. (I believed that they still had very slim hopes, if they could win out)
George Mason, a team whose bubble burst a couple weeks ago, but still gets talked about
Stephen F. Austin, whose 3 loss season was starting to get some notice. This is the second horrible loss for the Lumberjacks, however, and their win over Oklahoma probably won't be enough to get them in if they don't win the Southland
Houston, who was still on the bubble because of their lack of bad wins, lost to East Carolina

Other merely hurt their chances:

Kent St, fresh off a major BracketBuster win, managed a bad loss to put them back on the bubble
Florida, who needs to beat Tennessee on Wednesday and Kentucky @ Rupp next Sunday to have a shot, as they lost to fellow bubble team Mississippi St.
Syracuse, as mentioned earlier
Wake Forest, who added another not-so-good loss @ GT to a resume that contains quite a few bad ones
Texas A&M, a normally highly effective team that was held that a shockingly low .58 Points Per Possession in a 37 point effort against Oklahoma, beating their previous low of .72 in a loss to Texas
Cal, who probably needs a sweep of the LA teams next week after falling to Washington

Other things of note:

This has been said elsewhere, but you know a team is good when they are down 15 or so points in the second half, and you don't consider the other team to be blowing them out. Such was true of UNC @ BC and Duke @ NC St.
In the Year of the Weak Bubble, we also seem to have less dominant teams than in previous years. Every good team has a fatal flaw - Duke is too small, UNC can't play defense, Georgetown and Memphis can't shoot Free Throws, Texas is inconsistent, and so on.
This was emphasized today by a number of upsets and scares. Texas, Kent St., and Vanderbilt all lost, while UNC, Duke, Memphis, Xavier and Drake all had scares against vastly inferior opponents.
Out of the games I watched today, St. Mary's-Gonzaga was the best, although Gonzaga pulled away to make the end a boring affair. Georgetown-Marquette and Texas-Texas Tech had much more exciting endings.

Since I do not have transportation to Chicago for tomorrow, I am not able to get to the Depaul game. I would do another liveblog, but I don't think that is advisable. Instead, I will just post about the conferences that wrapped up regular-season play today and tomorrow.

Seed List Through Friday, February 29

2008-03-01T12:03:00.007-05:00

I don't have time to do the one-bid conference champions, so I'm going to take a leaf from Schmolik's book and leave them out (they aren't the important ones anyways)

1: Texas, Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA
2: North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Xavier
3: Stanford, Kansas, Notre Dame, Connecticut
4: Wisconsin, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Georgetown
5: Purdue, Marquette, Michigan St, Washington St.
6: Pittsburgh, Southern Cal, Kansas St, Clemson
7: Drake, Baylor, Arizona St, St. Mary’s
8: West Virginia, Gonzaga, Butler, BYU
9: Arizona, Texas A&M, Kent St., Oklahoma
10: Miami (FL), California, Syracuse, Wake Forest
11: Oregon, UNLV, Davidson, Villanova
12: Mississippi St., Maryland, St. Joseph’s, South Alabama
13: Illinois St.
Last Four Out: Florida, UMass, Rhode Island, Kentucky
Conference Breakdown
8: Pac-10, Big East
6: ACC, Big XII
4: Big 10
3: SEC
2: WCC, A-10, MWC, MVC

EDIT: I forgot Oklahoma. They are now in, and I moved Illinois St. out.
EDIT: Wow, mistake after mistake. Illinois St. back in after I realized I was short a team.

ND-Louisville Gamelog, Second Half

2008-02-28T19:43:00.023-05:00

And we're back. Nice Cut by Gody. Padgett walks all over the place, and yet the Irish get called for the foul. Misses the front end. Makes the back. And a 3 for ND. And the lead is down to 11. L'ville slows it down, gets it inside to Padgett, who makes it. Horrible shot selection by K-Mac, TJ gets the ball, then gets called for 3 second. 45-32
18:05
So every time Padgett shoots, its either uncontested or a foul. He hits the first. And the second. Gody gets fouled. Missed the first, made the second. Horrible pass. And then a horrible charge called on ZH as Padgett was still moving. Clark hits the two. 16 points now. Horrible shot, but L'ville dribbles it off it his foot on the way back. Another intercepted pass, but TJ's defense made Williams miss. Gody takes it inside for the and one. 49-36
16:15
Sick reverse layup by Kurz, TO L'ville. 49-38.
15:43
And we're back. Ayers gets called for an obvious foul. Under 16 TO. 49-38, L'ville.
15:24
Clark misses the first. Makes the second. Gody gets the ball, kicks it out, back inside, miss. Padgett scores, of course.TO ND, cause TJ was trapped. We only have 1 more. 52-38.
14:22
TJ almost loses the ball, Gody puts it in. Padgett comes right back with an emphatic dunk. After a quick foul, a quick dish to Gody under the basket for two. And another L'ville 3. The frenetic pace is back, and the deficit is 15. Ayers hits a 3. Sosa misses the three, Clark gets the putback but misses the and one. Gody misses, but Clark loses it out of bounds. 59-45, L'ville.
12:28
Padgett checks out. Only scored 2 in the first half without him. TJ's 3 rims out, and Clark comes back with an emphatic dunk. Bad pass to Gody, who gets fouled. 61-45, L'ville. Under 12 TO.
11:35
Ayers 3 rattles around, then drops. 13 points down, 11 minutes left. Gody blocks Caracter (though it was a definitely foul on Gody), then the ball went off Caracter, but the ref called it off K-Mac. Quick foul on Zach, his third. Miss, and ball goes out off L'ville. Gody gets the ball inside, hits for his 24th point. 10 minutes to go, lead down to 11. Palacio misses, and an anticipatory foul called. Misses the first, makes the second. Zeller tips it back in. But L'ville gets points. Amazing play by Luke to save the possession. 9 minutes to go, ND missed shots. L'ville gets fouled before the shot, but misses the first of the one-and-one. 64-52, L'ville.
7:48
Nice move by Padgett to get two. 3 on 2 after a steal for L'ville. Peoples makes an obvious foul on the floor, but the ref gives the guy continuation, and he misses the and-one. TJ blocked from behind. Foul from behind by Gody on Palacios. Misses the first. L'ville has horrible foul shooting. Makes the second. Trapped on the baseline, ball stolen. L'ville misses. Gody airballs one. 17 point deficit, 6:22 left.
Peoples fouled hard on the shot. Makes both shots. Zeller with the cheap foul. Padgett makes both. 6 to go, 17 points. This is horrible. 2 more for L'ville. This isn't good any more, and I'm behind a few possessions. Gody scores two, last TO called by ND. 17 point game.
5:36
ND comes out in a half-hearted press. Missed wide-open 3. Missed wide-open 2. Under 5 minutes. Palacios fails to save that ball. 3 for Ayers, 14 point game, 14 points on the game for Ayers. L'ville calls a TO.
4:28
Apparently, I'm flustered. Quick 2 by Padgett, foul by L'ville. Under 4 TO. 16 pt. game.
3:58
Still flustered. Kurz makes the first. and the second. Quick steal, and a drive, kickout to Kurz for a 3. Gody makes a quick steal and is fouled. Gody for 1 and 1. Makes both! 9 point game. Horrible attempt at pressing. TJ called for a quick reach-in.
3:16
Double Bonus for L'ville. Sosa makes the first, misses the second. Quick official timeout because of blood on Gody. Fighting hard again. And K-MAC HITS HIS FIRST 3 OF THE GAME. Under 3 minutes, 7 point game. K-Mac called for the reach-in.
2:35
Mcgee makes both, back to 9 points. And technical on K-Mac, for a TO called without one.
Mcgee misses both shots on the technical. Pitino looks like an (expletive) trying to call for the T. Quick airball for Kurz. 9 point game, 2 minutes to go. Misses badly. L Freakin Harangody makes his first career three. OMG. POY. Quick Foul. 1:30 to go, 6 points, Padgett misses 1. K-Mac Misses. Quick foul. Williams makes both. 9 points. LUUUUUUUUKE with another 3!!!!! Foul. Sosa makes 1. 7 points, 1 minute. 9 points, 43 seconds. Ayers makes the three. Dunk puts its to 8. ANOTHER LH 3, puts him up to 39 points on the game. 5 points, 20 seconds. Quick foul, TO L'ville. Makes both, back to 7. Gody fouled with 11.5 left. 1st rims out. Hits second. 6 point game. Anticipatory call on the long throw in, 1.6 seconds ran off. Sosa makes both. 8 points. Luke misses a 3. 3.4 seconds. Bank shot by Hillesland, L'ville wins, 90-85. Career High of 40 for LH.

Notre Dame-Louisville Game Log

2008-02-28T19:00:00.022-05:00

Pre Tip-off: Alright here we go... I've never done this before so it might be horrible. I also may get distracted. Feel free to leave comments to let me know you're here, and I'll try to get to them. Also, ignore the "read more".

And the tip: Louisville get the tip. Didn't even look like Hillesland tried.

Excellent opening defensive possession for the Irish. Unfortunately Luke just shot an airball.
19:27
Louisville scores, then steals off a bad pass on a full-court press. 5-0 L'ville
18:43
The Irish break the press, and Hillesland gets fouled. 5-2 L'ville
18:32
Half-hearted press by the Irish. 3 by Smith. Harangody gets two on the return. Padgett drives and scores. 10-4 L'ville.
18:10
Good defense by the Irish goes to waste as Clark puts back a shot emphatically. Goaltend not called down at the other end, and L'ville is fouled taking the ball the other way. Another 2 for the Cards, and then Gody gets two more. 14-6, L'ville.
17:10
L'ville moving the ball around well. Mcgee open at the top of the key for 3. Timeout ND. This isn't looking good. 17-6 L'ville
16:04
Sorry, reformatting took me away from the game for 40 seconds. L'ville missed a 3, then Harangody made a 2, and then once ND got the ball back, they missed a shot, and a foul was called on Kurz on the rebound. Under 16 TO. 17-8, L'ville
15:24
Doing a spot on white suits... I can't believe that this is what they could come up with.
Back from the timeout... L'ville jumper clanks off the rim. No ability to penetrate inside, and then TJ airballs a 3. 17-8 L'ville.
14:38
Why can't we penetrate like L'ville? Williams makes another statement dunk, followed by another pick-off and another L'ville 3. This is slightly depress. ND TO. 22-8
14:06
And we're back to reality, as Peoples turns the ball over. Luckily, L'ville thinks they can do everything inside and take a bad shot. Then Gody is left alone for the two. Again with the overconfidence as they miss an alley-oop. Kurz misses another three. ND not rebounding well. L'ville 3, Gody 2, L'ville 3, Gody 2. Frenetic pace isn't good for first time live blog. L'ville 3. Now 29-14, L'ville.
11:38
Ayers 2. L'ville now slowing it down. Another 3 at the end of the shot clock. Gody tries for two, misses, gets his own rebound, misses again, and then Kurz gets called for over the back. TV TO. Gody has 12 of ND's 16. 32-16, L'ville.
10:56
Finally a 3 point miss for L'ville, but Caracter there for the rebound. Gody has more made shots than the rest of the Irish has attempts. L'ville pokes the ball out. Running out of time, TJ airballs another. A quick L'ville miscue, followed by a bad K-Mac pass, another L'ville turnover. Kurz gets it underneath, then dribbles on the line. 34-16, L'ville.
9:18
Block by Gody out of bounds. Foul called on Gody. Airball by Caracter. Gody in trouble, kicks it out, bad drive by TJ. Caracter mishandles a pass, another turnover. Harangody hits a 2 from just inside the 3pt line. Sosa tries a 3, misses, and over the back called on Caracter. Under 8 TO. 34-18, L'ville.
7:34
While on this break, I'd just like to say that Gody is having another outstanding game. The Irish got a bad start, then spent some time trading 2s for 3s, which didn't work.
Irish inbound. Gody almost lost the ball, got it to Peoples, who made a nice dish to Kurz. Gody. defends well, and L'ville misses. Two straight misses for Gody. Clark runs into Gody, turns it over. Poor shot selection for the Irish, and foul on L'ville. K-Mac nails a floater on the inbound. Williams hits another 3. Not good. Kurz blocked on the drive. Smith tries a 3, but no such luck. Irish rebound. Took some time, then bad shot for K-mac. Padgett backs in, gets the easy two. This is looking like nightmare. Hillesland gets a kickout from Kurz, hits a two. Padgett misses on a tip, and the Irish drive down fast. Peoples slows it down. Kurz ends the with a bad miss on a bad shot. L'ville gets another 3. TO ND, their 3rd. 42-24, L'ville.
3:08
Ayers in-and-out, shooting just inside the arc. Padgett rolls in, clanks one of the rim. Long possession, bad miss for K-Mac. Ball goes out on the L'ville drive and turned over. Same score as before, Under 4 TO.
1:58
Turnover on the press by TJ, but thankfully Caracter turns it over as well. K-Mac misses with his floater, L'ville runs up the floor and misses a 3. Gody rolls in and misses, and the ball knocked out by L'ville. Under a minute left. Ayers hits the first Irish three of the game. Horrible half. Pellasio (sp?) walks under the basket. 28 seconds, Irish Ball. K-Mac Misses, put-back misses, Pellasio called for a foul on the rebound with 2.2 left. Zeller misses the last shot of the half. 42-27, L'ville.
First Half is over. I'm going to do the second half in a separate post.

So I'm an inconsistent blogger

2008-02-28T12:41:00.002-05:00

Although, since I'm not paid to do this and do not yet have a consistent following, I'm probably allowed a little more leeway.

But, I'm going to make it up. Tonight, I will attempt a live blog of the ND-Louisville game. Tomorrow I will produce a bracket, and post any thoughts I have.

Also, I will be adding collegehoopsnet.com to my list of links. Its a pretty awesome site, with a few bloggers who all seem to know what they are talking about.

Until tonight

Bracket for week of February 19th

2008-02-19T00:25:00.004-05:00

Monday games not included. Edited Tuesday morning for errors (Oklahoma instead of Oklahoma St, WKU instead of S. Alabama)

1: Memphis, Tennessee, Duke, UCLA
2: Kansas, Texas, North Carolina, Connecticut
3: Stanford, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan St.
4: Louisville, Xavier, Marquette, Georgetown
5: Indiana, Drake, Notre Dame, Kansas St.
6: Texas A&M, Arizona, Washington St., Pitt
7: Clemson, Southern California, Arkansas, Baylor
8: St. Mary’s, Vanderbilt, Butler, Oregon
9: Syracuse, Arizona St., Oklahoma, Maryland
10: Gonzaga, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Rhode Island
11: Brigham Young, California, Dayton, Mississippi St.
12: Mississippi, Miami (FL), Kent St., Davidson
13: VCU, WKU, Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Cornell, Winthrop, Portland St., Boise St.
15: Rider, CSU-Fullerton, Austin Peay, American
16: Belmont, Wagner, UMBC, Norfolk St., Alabama St.
Last Four Out: St. Joe's, Florida, Ohio St, UMass
New Teams In: Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Mississippi St, Western Kentucky, Boise St., Wagner, Norfolk St, Winthrop
Old Teams Out: Seton Hall, Florida, Ohio St., South Alabama, Nevada, Sacred Heart, Morgan St, UNC-Asheville
Conference Breakdown
8: Big East, Pac-10
6: Big XII, ACC
5: SEC
4: Big 10
3: A-10
2: WCC

My Big East Ballot

2008-02-18T09:49:00.001-05:00

1. Louisville
2. Connecticut
3. Georgetown
4. Notre Dame
5. Marquette
6. West Virginia
7. Pittsburgh
8. Syracuse
9. Cincinnati
10. Villanova
11. Depaul
12. Seton Hall
13. Providence
14. St. John’s
15. South Florida
16. Rutgers
POW: Kentrell Gransberry, USF - No other player had as big a week, and no other player was as valuable to his team
FOW: Chandler, Rutgers - Jeremy Hazell from Seton Hall had a bigger week, but the Pirates got blown out in each game. I wish I could give the Freshman of the week to Chandler, Coburn, and Pettis, but I had to choose just one.

Top 25 Blogpoll - Tuesday, February 12

2008-02-14T09:36:00.006-05:00

Just like last week, I will go through my top 25, and include the overall rank. Commentary to come later (sooner if I recieve inquiries about my logic).
Complete blogpoll.

1. Memphis (1)
2. Duke (2)
3. Tennessee (3)
4. Texas (8)
5. Stanford (7)

6. North Carolina (5)
7. UCLA (6)
8. Kansas (4)
9. Drake (11)
10. Xavier (10)
11. Louisville (20)
12. Texas A&M (19)
13. Kansas St. (17)
14. Georgetown (9)
15. Butler (13)
16. Marquette (25)
17. Notre Dame (20)
18. Purdue (21)
19. Wisconsin (14)
20. St. Mary's (22)
21. Connecticut (15)
22. Washington St. (18)
23. Gonzaga (NR)
24. Indiana (16)
25. Michigan St. (12)

In the poll, Not in my Poll:
Vanderbilt (24)

Seed List: February 11 (Plus Bracket)

2008-02-12T00:13:00.000-05:00

Does not include results from Monday's games:

1: Memphis, Duke, Tennessee, UCLA
2: Kansas, North Carolina, Texas, Xavier
3: Drake, Stanford, Louisville, Connecticut
4: Georgetown, Washington St., Indiana, Notre Dame
5: Michigan St., Butler, Kansas St., Marquette
6: Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Arizona, Pittsburgh
7. St. Mary’s, Baylor, Texas A&M, Gonzaga
8: Clemson, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Arizona St.
9: Purdue, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Florida
10: West Virginia, Rhode Island, Arkansas, BYU
11: Oregon, California, Syracuse, Seton Hall
12: South Alabama, Dayton, Maryland, Kent St.
13: Davidson, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts
14: UNC-Asheville, Cornell, Nevada, Portland St.
15: Rider, CSU-Fullerton, Austin Peay, American
16: Belmont, Morgan St., Sacred Heart, UMBC, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Villanova, Miami (FL), Creighton, Massachusetts
New Teams In: Maryland, Oregon, Nevada
Old Teams Out: UNLV, Miami (FL), Boise St.
Conference Breakdown
9: Big East
8: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: SEC, Big 10
4: ACC
3: A-10
2: WCC
Click the link for the bracket

Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 - Memphis
16 – Play-in (UMBC/Alabama St.)
9 – Oklahoma
8 – Clemson
Tampa, Florida
5 – Wisconsin
12 – California
13 – Davidson
4 – Notre Dame
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Portland St.
11 – Dayton
6 – Marquette
Little Rock, Arkansas
7 – Gonzaga
10 – Mississippi
15 - Rider
2 – Texas

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA
16 - Belmont
9 – West Virginia
8 – Vanderbilt
Denver, Colorado
5 – Kansas St.
12 – Maryland
13 – Stephen F. Austin
4 – Indiana
Washington, DC
3 – Connecticut
14 - Nevada
11 - BYU
6 – St. Mary’s
Washington, DC
7 – Texas A&M
10 – Oregon
15 – Austin Peay
2 – Xavier

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – Duke
16 – Sacred Heart
9 – Rhode Island
8 – Ohio St.
Denver, Colorado
5 - Butler
12 – Seton Hall
13 – Virginia Commonwealth
4 – Washington St.
Birmingham, Alabama
3 – Louisville
14 – UNC-Asheville
11 – South Alabama
6 – Arizona
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Baylor
10 – Purdue
15 – CSU-Fullerton
2 – Tennessee

Detroit Regional
Omaha, Nebraska
1 – Kansas
16 – Morgan St.
9 - Florida
8 – Arizona St.
Tampa, Florida
5 – Michigan St.
12 – Kent St.
13 – Oral Roberts
4 – Georgetown
Omaha, Nebraska
3 - Drake
14 - Cornell
11 – Syracuse
6 – Southern Cal
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Pittsburgh
10 – Arkansas
15 - American
2 – North Carolina

Big East BlogPoll - Combined

2008-02-11T16:53:00.000-05:00

22 bloggers voted this week.
1) Georgetown (13): 339 points.
2) Louisville (6): 324 points.
3) Notre Dame (1): 306 points.
4) Connecticut (2): 302 points.
5) Pittsburgh: 256 points.
6) Marquette: 249 points.
7t) Syracuse: 208 points.
7t) West Virginia: 208 points.
9) Cincinnati: 173 points.
10) Seton Hall: 148 points.
11) Villanova: 132 points.
12) DePaul: 116 points.
13) St. John’s: 84 points.
14) Providence: 81 points.
15) Rutgers: 41 points.
16) South Florida: 25 points.

Player of the Week: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Freshman of the Week: Jonny Flynn, Syracuse

I'm not sure about those 3 votes that didn't go to either Louisville or Georgetown. UConn and the Irish are hot, but they aren't the best teams in the conference. I'm also not sure about Marquette dropping to 6th after losing to ND and Louisville. I don't think that means they are worse than Pitt. I really can't argue with anything else, other than Syracuse and WVU being tied.

Seed List to follow soon, then Top 25, then Bracket.

Big East BlogPoll - My Ballot

2008-02-11T16:35:00.001-05:00

Big East Elite
1. Louisville - They beat Georgetown. They are certainly on that level with the Hoyas, and that win gives them a tie-breaker over the Hoyas.
2. Georgetown - Certainly in the top 2 in the Big East, without question.
Upper Tier
3. Marquette - Yes, they did lose to Notre Dame. But it was by 3 at one of the top 16 arenas in the nation (according to rivals.com). A 3-point loss on the road vs. a 20 point win at home means they are indeed better than my Irish.
4. Notre Dame - Arguable selection here, but as with Louisville/Georgetown, Notre Dame holds the win in the only game played against Connecticut.
5. Connecticut - Any ordering of these three is acceptable. I just think that based on results, this is how it should be.
Upper-Mids
6. Pittsburgh
7. West Virginia
Middle of the Road
8. Syracuse
9. Cincinnati
10. Villanova
11. Seton Hall
Low-Mid
12. Depaul
13. Providence
Bottom of the Barrel
14. St. Johns
15. Rutgers
16. South Florida

POW: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
FOW: Chris Chandler, Rutgers

Top 25 Blogpoll

2008-02-07T12:01:00.000-05:00

I've been voting in the Top 25 Blog Poll for the previous three weeks, but I finally decided to start posting my ballot, as well as the final ballot.
Here is a link to the entire blogpoll, with everyone's votes

Please note that this poll came out Tuesday afternoon, so the results of Tuesday and Wednesday are not included. My ballot, followed by blogpoll rank:

1. Memphis (1) - Simply the best. They've occupied the number 1 slot for me ever since the dominating win over the Hoyas. I just have this feeling that they'll be undefeated come tournament time, and get upset sometime in the 2nd or 3rd round. If they make it to the Final Four, they will win it all.

2. Duke (2) - They keep winning, even though analysts insist they have no reason to win. This Duke team is good, and is my choice for a national champion.

3. Tennessee (6) - Nobody has more big wins. Nobody. They'd probably be my number two if they hadn't lost at Kentucky.

4. UCLA (4) - I don't have a good reason to put them here. It just feels right.

5. Kansas (3) - They are dominant, which is why they are up in the top 5. They just have no big win to justify a top 3 ranking.

6. North Carolina (5) - The last of the truly elite teams this year (Georgetown has a claim to that, but I would not put them there yet). However, they have a bad loss and no superior wins. Also, they can't play defense.

7. Texas (12) - An oddball selection for the seven spot, especially after being blown out by the Aggies. This is, however, a team that blew out Tennessee on a neutral-court, beat UCLA on the road, and trounced Saint Mary's. Despite inconsistent play, which will limit the seed they receive, this is the 7th best team.

8. Georgetown (7) - They could be elite... I just haven't seen it. They dominated Notre Dame, but (relatively) poor showings against Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia have me wary about the elite status of the Hoyas. Their signature wins so far are home games against the Irish and UConn.

9. Drake (11) - The Bulldogs might be on the level with Texas and Georgetown, but really, this team will go into the tournament mostly untested. Their only loss came to a good St. Mary's team.

10. Stanford (9) - Again, just feels right (as I proved in my last seed list, I am not an authority on anything Pac-10).

11. Wisconsin (8) - I really want to put them lower than 11th, but there exists a rather large gap between these top 11 teams and the next 14. Wisconsin hasn't impressed, but you don't need to be impressive to be good this year.

12. Texas A&M (19) - They started off the year strong, had a three-game slide, and are back on track. This is a good team, and will probably be a Sweet 16 team come tournament time.

13. Kansas St. (18) - The Cat's resume is not worthy of a top 15 ranking. But, with the exception of a let-down game at Mizzou, few teams are playing better than Kansas St. I would take them over many teams.

14. Xavier (10) - See, I do give Xavier some love. They are obviously a dominant team. They just don't have the big wins that other teams do. Also, in retrospect, I realize that I should have switched XU and KSU, but I completely forgot about Xavier's domination of KSU. This will be corrected next week.

15. Butler (13) - Another overrated team that keeps pulling games out. They will be upset in either the first or second rounds. However, I can't justify moving them down in the rankings.

16. Marquette (20) - Reason Why
17. Oklahoma (NR) - I Won't
18. Notre Dame (24) - Move Butler
19. Gonzaga (NR) - Down in
20. Connecticut (17) - My Rankings
21. Louisville (23) - Seriously... those six teams are very arguable. I firmly belive that Marquette should be ahead of Notre Dame, who should be ahead of UConn. If Louisville holds their own against G'Town, they'll probably jump to the head of those 6.

22. Washington St. (16)
23. Indiana (15) - The three most overrated teams in the ballot. I've seen no reason to put them higher.
25. Michigan St. (14)

24. St. Mary's (22) - Beat Gonzaga to make up for the loss at San Diego. Doesn't have a big win to allow them to lose many in-conference games.

In the Poll, not my Ballot
Arizona (21) - What have they done besides schedule well?
Pittsburgh (25) - Losses to Cincy and Rutgers keep them out for me

Bracket - February 3

2008-02-04T10:47:00.000-05:00

All Discrepancies between this and the seed list reflect movement to make the bracket work.

Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Memphis (CUSA)
16 - Play-in (UMBC/Alabama St.) (America East/SWAC)
9 – St. Mary’s
8 – Southern Cal
Tampa, Florida
5 – Marquette
12 – Virginia Commonwealth (CAA)
13 - Oral Roberts (Summit)
4 – Ohio St.
Denver, Colorado
3 – Washington St.
14 – Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
11 – Miami (FL)
6 – Xavier (A-10)
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – West Virginia
10 – Florida
15 – American (Patriot)
2 – Kansas (Big XII)

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA (Pac-10)
16 – Austin Peay (OVC)
9 – Purdue
8 – Mississippi
Denver, Colorado
5 – Gonzaga (WCC)
12 – Syracuse
13 – UNC-Asheville (Big South)
4 – Drake (MVC)
Washington DC
3 – Michigan St.
14 – Portland St. (Big Sky)
11 – BYU (MWC)
6 – Notre Dame
Little Rock, Arkansas
7 – Stanford
10 – Arkansas
15 - East Tennessee St. (OVC)
2 – Texas

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – Duke (ACC)
16 – Wagner (NEC)
9 – Louisville
8 – Mississippi St.
Anaheim, California
5 – Baylor
12 – South Alabama (Sun Belt)
13 – Boise St. (WAC)
4 – Arizona
Washington DC
3 – Indiana
14 – Davidson (SoCon)
11 – Rhode Island
6 – Texas A&M
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Vanderbilt
10 – California
15 – Cornell (IVY)
2 – Georgetown (Big East)

Detroit Regional
Birmingham, Alabama
1 – Tennessee (SEC)
16 – Morgan St. (MEAC)
9 – Clemson
8 – Pittsburgh
Tampa, Florida
5 – Oklahoma
12 – UNLV
13 – Kent St. (MAC)
4 – Connecticut
Omaha, Nebraska
3 – Wisconsin
14 – Rider (MAAC)
11 – Seton Hall
6 – Butler (Horizon)
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Kansas St.
10 – Dayton
15 – Cal State-Fullerton (Big West)
2 – North Carolina

Seed List, February 3

2008-02-03T23:53:00.000-05:00

1: Memphis, Duke, Tennessee, UCLA
2: Kansas, North Carolina, Texas, Georgetown
3: Wisconsin, Indiana, Washington St., Michigan St.
4: Drake, Arizona, Ohio St., Connecticut
5: Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Marquette
6: Baylor, Butler, Notre Dame, Kansas St.
7: Stanford, Xavier, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
8: Southern Cal, Mississippi, St. Mary’s, Mississippi St.
9: Louisville, Florida, Arkansas, Pittsburgh
10: Clemson, Purdue, California, Dayton
11: Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Rhode Island, Brigham Young
12: Syracuse, UNLV, South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth
13: Oral Roberts, UNC-Asheville, Kent St., Stephen F. Austin
14: Davidson, Boise St, Rider, Portland St.
15: East Tennessee St, Cornell, CSU-Fullerton, Morgan St.
16: American, Wagner, Austin Peay, UMBC, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: UMass, Houston, Villanova, St. Joseph’s
New Teams IN: California, UNLV, Rider, Portland St, Boise St, Morgan St, American, CSU-Fullerton
Old Teams OUT: Providence, UMass, Siena, NAU, Utah St, Hampton, Lafayette, CSU-Northridge
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: SEC, Big 10
4: ACC
3: A-10
2: WCC, MWC

Big East Blogpoll Ballot

2008-02-03T18:12:00.000-05:00

1. Georgetown
2. Marquette
3. Notre Dame
4. Connecticut
5. Pittsburgh
6. Marquette
7. Louisville
8. Cincinnati
9. Providence
10. Syracuse
11. Seton Hall
12. Villanova
13. Depaul
14. Rutgers
15. St. John’s
16. South Florida
POW: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
ROW: Dejuan Blair, Pitt

Seed List, January 28

2008-01-28T21:41:00.000-05:00

Brackets will start next week.

1: Memphis, Kansas, Duke, Tennessee
2: North Carolina, Texas, UCLA, Michigan St.
3: St. Mary’s, Georgetown, Drake, Wisconsin
4: Washington St., Xavier, Oklahoma, Butler
5: Mississippi, Stanford, Gonzaga, Connecticut
6: Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Baylor, Marquette
7: Notre Dame, Indiana, Arizona, Kansas St.
8: Louisville, Florida, Texas A&M, Ohio St.
9: Vanderbilt, South Alabama, Miami (FL), Southern Cal
10: Dayton, Rhode Island, Clemson, Syracuse
11: BYU, Mississippi St., Massachusetts, Purdue
12: Providence, Arkansas, Seton Hall, Kent St.
13: Virginia Commonwealth, UNC-Asheville, Oral Roberts, Siena
14: Davidson, CSU-Northridge, Stephen F. Austin, Utah St.
15: Northern Arizona, Cornell, Hampton, Wagner
16: East Tennessee St, Lafayette, Austin Peay, UMBC, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Villanova, Wake Forest, California, UNLV
New Teams In: Seton Hall, Syracuse, BYU, Purdue, Mississippi St., Cornell, Wagner, ETSU
Old Teams Out: Villanova, NC St., Boston College, California, San Diego St., Brown, RMU, Belmont
Conference Breakdown:
10: Big East
6: Pac-10, Big XII
5: SEC, Big 10
4: ACC, A-10
2: WCC

Big East BlogPoll Ballot

2008-01-27T16:01:00.000-05:00

Unless Providence can pull the upset, here is my ballot:
1. Georgetown
2. West Virginia
3. Connecticut
4. Marquette
5. Louisville
6. Notre Dame
7. Pittsburgh
8. Cincinnati
9. Syracuse
10. Rutgers
11. Syracuse
12. Providence
13. Seton Hall
14. Villanova
15. St. John’s
16. South Florida

POW: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

FOW: Mike Coburn, Rutgers

If Providence does win, just switch them and Syracuse.
For player of the week: I was going to pick Anthony Mason Jr. from St. John's for his two 29-point performances. St. John's lost both of those games, so I decided instead to pick a top performer who led his team to victory.

Way in over my head

2008-01-26T17:53:00.000-05:00

Well, as you've probably noticed, I am way behind in posting. I am also way behind in schoolwork and life, so I am scaling back my posting to just that of ND, Big East Blog Poll, Top 25 Blog Poll, and Seed Lists/Bracketology.

With that said:

I didn't see this weekend's game. I'm missing Providence and Depaul AND Marquette. So if you read my blog for the purpose of ND information... you may want to look elsewhere for the time being.

Stop Slacking!

2008-01-22T14:08:00.000-05:00

Major games from the weekend:
Saturday:

Maryland defeats UNC. This is a huge lift for Maryland, and lessens the aura of dominance surrounding the Tar Heels. However, for all intents and purposes this loss did nothing to the Tar Heels, as they maintained their seeding in many seed lists (mine include).
USC defeats UCLA. Much more important for USC than the UNC win was for Maryland, as USC only had one bad loss. This also hurt UCLA, as they already had one loss. This game allowed Tennessee to sneak in as a 1 seed.
Speaking of the Vols, they have an astounding 7 wins against the top 50 RPI teams. Thats three more than any other team. However, they only beat the Buckeyes by 5. Is this a sign of weakness, or a sign that the Buckeyes are good?
Fordham defeats Duquesne. Duquesne's whole tournament resume was based around the fact that they had no bad losses, and this game ruins that.
Miami (FL) is a pretender. Miami (FL) is a pretender. (Repeat as necessary)
Baylor picks up a road win. Baylor is for real, and they will make the tournament. This makes me happy, since this improves the Irish chances.
Texas A&M is not good. They cannot win big games on the road. However, they are not bad. But unless they start winning some road games, they are done for. Same goes for the Irish.
Kudos to Nova for picking up a road win in the Big East. Through Saturday, home teams in the Big East are 34-9, with only Rutgers having more than one home loss.
Kudos also to Cincinnati for beating Pittsburgh. Cincinnati needs to continue knocking off top teams so they can overcome their pathetic non-con schedule.
Drake beats Illinois St. in the battle for the Valley. Drake is now the master of the universe.
BYU beats Utah in the only significant Saturday MWC action. This probably drops Utah out of the running for an at-large.
Stanford beat Arizona St. Stanford is moving off of the bubble while ASU is moving closer to the bubble.
California needs to win a game every so often, or they will miss the tournament.
Davidson and Chattanooga squared off, and Davidson resoundingly showed that they will win their conference.
Mississippi loses to Auburn? Inconcievable! This could shove Auburn back into NIT level.
IUPUI followed up the tough loss at ORU to an unthinkable loss at Centenary. IUPUI went from one-bid stud to one-bid dud in the span of a week.
Still searching for SWAC teams that want to win.

Sunday:

Marquette got shellacked on the road by UConn. No one in the Big East is going to end up with a good road record, which will hurt seeding a lot. On the other hand, West Virginia's road win at USF will look very good, even if USF isn't the best team.
Wake Forest beats Florida St. Enough said.

Monday:

Syracuse ALMOST beat G'town, which would have pushed them into the tournament. But they didn't, and now they must suffer the consequences.

Big Matchups for Tonight and Tomorrow:

Wake Forest @ Clemson: Big game for each. A win for the Deacons might push them into the tournament and send the Tigers tumbling out.
Drake @ Creighton: Jeff from basketballpredictions.com says that Drake will falter once they're in the spotlight. Here they are, on the road, against one of the best teams in the conference. A win here will solidify their position, while a loss will leave many doubts for the Drake.
Utah @ New Mexico: Another important game regarding the MWC. Quick story: yesterday a friend was going through conference-by-conference, asking me who could realistically win each one. We got to the MWC. I looked at it for a second, then told him "Everyone except Colorado St. and Wyoming"
UNC @ Miami (FL): The Cane's can show me here that they are not pretenders.
Virginia @ Florida St.: Bubblicious ACC game.
Baylor @ Texas A&M: Road win will push Baylor above the bubble, but Texas A&M will be looking for someone to beat after two embarrassing losses sent them tumbling.
Iowa St. @ Kansas: The Cyclones have been surprising solid at home, but so far do not have a stellar road win.
UConn @ Cincinnati: The Bearcats are 8-3 at home with wins over Pittsburgh and Villanova and losses to Belmont and Bowling Green. Which team will show up?
Akron @ Kent St.: For control of the MAC bEast.
San Diego St. @ BYU: See previous comments regarding MWC.
Bucknell @ Lafayette: For control of the Patriot League.

Seed List for January 21st

2008-01-22T01:26:00.000-05:00

1: Memphis, Kansas, Tennessee, North Carolina
2: Duke, Michigan St., Texas, UCLA
3: Wisconsin, Washington St., Vanderbilt, Mississippi
4: Dayton, St. Mary’s, Pittsburgh, Georgetown
5: Drake, Indiana, Xavier, Villanova
6: Marquette, Butler, Miami (FL), Oklahoma
7: West Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, Notre Dame
8: Arizona St., Stanford, Clemson, Ohio St.
9: Massachusetts, Louisville, Rhode Island, Connecticut
10: Kansas St., Texas A&M, Baylor, South Alabama
11: Florida, Southern Cal, Providence, NC St.
12: Boston College, California, Stephen F. Austin, Cal State-Northridge
13: Kent St., San Diego St., Virginia Commonwealth, Siena
14: Utah St., Oral Roberts, UNC-Asheville, Davidson
15: Northern Arizona, Hampton, Brown, Robert Morris
16: Lafayette, Austin Peay, Belmont, UMBC, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Virginia, Cleveland St.
New Teams In: NC St., Southern Cal, BC, UConn, Oral Roberts, Robert Morris, Alabama St., Belmont
Old Teams Out: Virginia, Syracuse, Florida St, Oregon, IUPUI, Wagner, Texas Southern, ETSU
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII, ACC
4: A-10, Big 10, SEC
2: WCC

Post later

2008-01-21T18:59:00.000-05:00

I will be getting out my seed list later today, and tomorrow I will be doing a wrap-up of the past three days.

In Case you Missed It...

2008-01-17T18:08:00.000-05:00

Here's what happened last night:

Three different stories vied for attention last night. The one that had me most intrigued was the Ramblin' Wreck holding tough and ALMOST beating North Carolina. It didn't even look like UNC was struggling, just that GT was able to keep up. I now have utmost confidence that Duke will beat UNC at Durham (and perhaps at Chapel Hill).
The second story was the two of the three outstanding teams in the A-10 losing - Dayton falling at home to UMass, and Xavier losing by 19 on the road at Temple. The Xavier loss hurt a lot more (as you can see, I had them fall quite a bit). The Dayton loss didn't do much, except serve as the only bad conference loss they could take. Massachusetts, however, used the win to vault back into the bracket.
The third story was Drake and Illinois St. winning to set up a match of unbeatens this Saturday at Drake.
Also of note: Virginia lost to Virginia Tech at home. Just when it seems that the Cavs are on track they lose.
Iowa St. beat Mizzou. Missouri believers - your faith is unrewarded.
San Diego St. knocked off Utah to take control of the Mountain West. If by some miracle they could get through their conference with only one loss, they could make a case for an at-large.
Holy Cross scored 39 at HOME to lose to Army. They will NOT win the conference this year. They look like they don't even belong.
Mississippi beat Florida. No surprises here.

Now for tonight's games:

Indiana @ Minnesota: Is either team for real? That remains to be seen.
Marquette @ Louisville: Winning on the road in the Big East has proved nearly impossible so far. Yet this is what Marquette must do to maintain its lofty status.
Providence @ Connecticut: Two Big East Bubble teams. UConn really needs a standout win, not just a good effort at G'Town and ND.
Butler @ Cleveland St.: For control of the Horizon League.
Kent St. @ Miami (OH): Two teams vying for the MAC title.
Arizona @ Stanford: This game will be crucial in determining seeding for these two.
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee: Is Vandy for real? If they can win this game, I'll believe in them. However, I suspect that the Commodores are not ready for the challenges of the SEC. This one is my pick for game of the night.
IUPUI @ Oral Roberts: For control of the Summit League.
Boise St. @ Utah St.: Yet another crucial game in the battle for the WAC.

Seed List for January 17

2008-01-17T15:25:00.000-05:00

1: Memphis, Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA
2: Tennessee, Washington St., Pittsburgh, Duke
3: Michigan St., Texas, Marquette, Wisconsin
4: Mississippi, Butler, St. Mary’s, Drake
5: Georgetown, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Dayton
6: West Virginia, Rhode Island, Arizona, Oklahoma
7: Arizona St., Xavier, Villanova, Baylor
8: Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Ohio St., Syracuse
9: Texas A&M, Louisville, Miami (FL), Oregon
10: Kansas St., UMass, Clemson, Stanford
11: Florida, California, Florida St, Providence
12: South Alabama, Virginia, Kent St., CSU-Northridge
13: Stephen F. Austin, San Diego St., Siena, IUPUI
14: VCU, Davidson, UNC-Asheville, Utah St.
15: Hampton, Northern Arizona, Wagner, Eastern Tennessee St.
16: Brown, Austin Peay, Lafayette, UMBC, Texas Southern
Last Four Out: Duquesne, Minnesota, Connecticut, Cleveland St.
New Teams In: Providence, UMass, California, Louisville, Texas Southern, Lafayette, UNC-Asheville, San Diego St.
Old Teams Out: Arkansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Connecticut, UA-Pine Bluff, Holy Cross, Winthrop, Utah
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII, ACC
4: A-10, Big 10, SEC
2: WCC

Red Panda Part 2

2008-01-16T16:13:00.000-05:00

Now that I have a little more free time, I'll summarize the big games since Saturday:

Saturday:

North Carolina DOMINATED NC St. in their ACC opener. While this is not a bad loss for the Wolfpack, it will stick in the committee members' minds in March, both as a sign of UNC dominance and NC St. failure.
Meanwhile, Florida St. failed to pick up a big win against Clemson. The Seminoles need something to make their resume stand out.
Kentucky came out of nowhere to upset undefeated Vanderbilt at Rupp. I'd lay money that that sentence was never thought possible prior to this season. Is this a sign that the ship is being righted in for UK, or a sign of troubles down in Vandy?
I was seriously surprised the UConn-G'town game was as close as it was. Perhaps the Hoyas will not have the easy ride to the conference championship that I believed they would. Also, Villanova looks less and less like a tournament-quality team every game. Losing to Cincinnati is not the way to go. (Cincinnati just isn't that good. I don't know how they beat Louisville, but they lost to St. John's by double-digits.)
Kansas St. winning at Oklahoma was key. Both teams will be in the tournament, and this will be the gift that keeps on giving for KSU.
I watched the end of Michigan St. and Iowa, and have determined that Michigan St. is perhaps the worst "good" team in the history of me watching basketball. I really liked them last year, especially Drew Nietzel, but the fact that they are able to play as poorly as they did against Iowa tells me that they have no shot of winning the NCAA Tournament.
Elsewhere in the Big Ten Ohio St. picked up a bad loss at Purdue. Bad in this sense not because PU is horrible, but because they are supposed to be so much better than Purdue. This does not bode well for the Buckeyes.
Arizona came up with a key OOC road win at Houston. Realistically, unless Houston can upset Memphis at least once (out of a probable three chances), they aren't going to make the tournament.
UCLA made their case for being a 1 seed. I watched the end of this game, and the barrage of threes by Washington St. at the end was quite impressive. You probably don't need me to tell you more about this game.
It was not a good day for top teams in low-major conferences. UMBC (America East), Winthrop (Big South), East Tennessee St. (Atlantic Sun), CSU-Fullerton (Big West), and Holy Cross (Patriot) all lost, with all except HC coming at home.
Southern Illinois lost again, this time to Indiana St. I hope everyone (other than true Saluki fans) has gotten off this bandwagon. This is just not their year. This is really the only interesting thing to come out of Saturday from the MVC.
It isn't very far into the conference season, but it appears that the Southern Conference is a two team race between Chattanooga and Davidson.
In the WAC, Utah St. came out victorious over New Mexico St. in the battle of conference leaders. In the MWC, San Diego St. beat New Mexico at New Mexico in the battle of conference leaders. Does anyone else think these two should just merge into a super-conference? (Bonus Point: Another leader in the MWC, UNLV, lost to Air Force. This puts a SERIOUS dent in whatever at-large hopes they had).
Austin Peay won round 1 against SE Missouri St. in a match-up between the two teams most likely to represent the Ohio Valley in the play-in game.

Sunday:

Duquesne showed they belonged at the A-10 party by almost knocking off highly-touted Rhode Island AT RIU. This finally led me to acknowledge that Jeff over at basketballpredictions.blogspot.com may know more about the A-10 than I. (I've been arguing with him for weeks about the A-10, because he believes they will only receive two bids.)
Syracuse showed that they cannot hang with West Virginia. I maintain that Syracuse, like Villanova, is vastly overrated.
IU beat Illinois. Not much news here. I was actually shocked that it was close.

Monday:

Shocker of the night: Pitt beat Georgetown. It appears that there are several clusters in the Big East: G'town, Marquette, and Pitt at the top, Notre Dame, Louisville, Connecticut, and West Virginia in the high-middle, Villanova, Providence, and Syracuse in the middle, Cincinnati and Depaul in the low-middle, and the other four below them.
Kansas wiped the floor with Oklahoma, showing that they are indeed a (perhaps the) top team in the Big XII.
I've decided that no one truly wants to win the SWAC. I hope some team from that conference uses that statement as motivation.
VMI won to improve to 2-0 in the Big South. They won't win the conference, but by golly I want them to. They are quite entertaining to watch. If you can, find last year's conference championship game between VMI and Winthrop. It was awesome.

Tuesday:

Miami lost to BC by 10. I believe that this is more an indication that Miami is overrated than the Eagles being a tournament team. However, for BC this is a step in the right direction.
Baylor beat Oklahoma St. I think Baylor is truly going to make the tournament, and I don't think the committee puts as much stock in "name" as people think.
Nebraska lost to Colorado. Ya hear that? That's the sound of Nebraska's at-large hopes falling fast.
Winthrop beat Liberty by only 7 at home. I give it 3:2 odds that Winthrop wins the conference... which isn't good news for them.
Two big games in the Mountain West. UNLV, who lost to Air Force, destroyed BYU. I will say outright that I have not a clue who will win this conference. New Mexico, 14-2 heading into the conference season, lost to a not good TCU team.

This brings us to the games tonight:

UMass @ Dayton: Massachusetts does not want to fall to 0-2 in-conference, but that is probably what will happen.
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech: Must-win for Georgia Tech. Also won't happen.
Duke @ Florida St.: The Noles are still looking for something shiny to show the selection committee.
Delaware @ VCU: Two of the three teams vying for the conference title.
Drake @ Bradley: Another road test for your MVC-leading Drake. (Note: My roommate couldn't be happier about this.)
Utah @ San Diego St.: The only two teams left undefeated in conference play in the MWC.
Florida @ Mississippi: Game of the night. Mississippi "rebounded" from their tough lost at Tennessee to almost lose at home to not-so-great LSU. Florida is still a mystery, and probably will be until deep into the conference season.

I plan to do another seed list tonight after all the big games are done. I apologize for the long post, and long time since my last post.

Red Panda

2008-01-16T08:27:00.000-05:00

I haven't been able to write in a few days, what with moving back to school and all. Therefore, I am splitting this into two posts: Notre Dame since Saturday, and the rest of the (college basketball) world since Sunday.

The game against Marquette was ugly. Really ugly. The fact that Notre Dame was still in the game at halftime was more a testament to the bad play of Marquette than to the good play of the Irish. The only bright spot of the game was Luke Harangody, who still managed 29 points despite 6 turnovers. In all the Irish committed 24 turnovers on 77 possessions - almost a third of the possessions. It wasn't just dumb mistakes like throwing away the ball, although that happened several times. 17 turnovers came from steals, as the Irish big men (Kurz, Harangody, Hillesland) let themselves get trapped and didn't get the ball out of there quick enough. Macalerny also had several turnovers, though he just was not careful enough with the ball. Ryan Ayers, typically a three-point threat, ignored several open looks and contributed only 2 missed attempts to the 4-19 night.

In contrast the game against Cincinnati last night was fun to watch. The Irish started out slow, missing their first 7 field goals before Macalerny floated in a shot 6 minutes into the game. THe Irish would not score until Kurz was fouled nearly four minutes into the game and drained both of his free-throws. 12 of the Irish first-half points came off of free-throws, and the crowd could not get into the game. Going into halftime the Irish trailed by 7, and Harangody had only scored 1 point off of a free-throw. The play that best represented the first half came with the Irish up 19-18 when Kurz had a open look for a dunk, and the crowd cheered as he smashed it through. Those cheers turned to groans as the dunk bounced off the rim to a Cincinnati player, who then took it the other way for an easy two.

Something must have happened at halftime, and I'd like to think it was the performance of Red Panda. Red Panda an Asian lady, on a 8-foot unicycle, who balances bowls on her foot and flipping 1, then 2, then 3, then 4, and finally 5 bowls onto her head, while keeping all previously flipped bowls on her head as she rides around the arena. Her performance whipped the crowd into a frenzy, and much of that energy transferred into the second half of the game. The crowd cheered much louder in the second half, and the team seemed to feed off of that energy. The noise level only increased as Kurz started off the half with a three. Cincinnati missed 5 of their first 6 shots, but after Rashard Bishop finally tipped in a miss, Harangody scored 11 points in three minutes while the Bearcats went 3/9 to bring the Irish within one. Once the Irish took the lead they never surrendered it, and the game never felt close. When the big man guarding Harangody fouled out with about 6 minutes to go in the game, I thought "Game Over". The Bearcats certainly thought they had a chance, but the Irish kept making free throws. Two acts that I thought were unsportsmanlike near the end of the game. The Bearcat coach ordered his players to keep fouling and extend the game - even when down 14 with under 30 seconds to play! Cronin delayed the game even when it was clearly out of reach. That was bad. When Cincinnati turned the ball over with under 10 seconds, the Irish should have run out the clock. Instead sophomore Jonathan peoples took the ball down the court for a dunk. That was also bad. No one tried to contest him because the game was over. Just run out the clock! Obviously the game wasn't perfect. The Irish haven't stayed focused on a game for a full 40 minutes yet. This was, however, a nice win to follow-up the bad loss at Marquette.

Hopefully we can win at G'town, but I am not hopeful. We beat UConn by playing tough and hitting the three; if the three is on, we stand a chance.

Big East Blogger's Poll Ballot

2008-01-13T16:35:00.000-05:00

Georgetown
Pittsburgh
Marquette
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Villanova
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Syracuse
Louisville
Providence
Depaul
Seton Hall
South Florida
St. John's
Rutgers

POW: Hibbert, Georgetown

FOW: Blair, Pittsburgh

Seed List for January 13th

2008-01-13T12:42:00.000-05:00

Coming Later: Thoughts about ND-Marquette, Notes about the Weekend

1: Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas
2: Tennessee, Duke, Washington St., Mississippi
3: Wisconsin, Texas, Dayton, Marquette
4: Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Michigan St., Butler
5: Georgetown, St. Mary’s, Baylor, Arizona St.
6: Xavier, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Arizona
7: West Virginia, Villanova, Oklahoma, Rhode Island
8: Gonzaga, Drake, Indiana, Stanford
9: Oregon, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Kansas St.
10: Syracuse, Virginia, Nebraska, Miami (FL)
11: Clemson, Florida, Arkansas, Florida St.
12: Minnesota, Utah, South Alabama, VCU
13: Stephen F. Austin, Kent St., CSU-Northridge, IUPUI
14: Siena, Utah St., Winthrop, Davidson
15: Northern Arizona, Holy Cross, ETSU, UMBC
16: Hampton, Austin Peay, Wagner, Brown, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Last Four Out: California, Louisville, Providence, Houston
New Teams In: Florida, Florida St., Minnesota, Arkansas, Connecticut, VCU, UA-PB, Wagner, NAU, Brown, Utah, Utah St.
Old Teams Out: California, Providence, USC, UMass, Boston College, George Mason, Alabama St., Long Island, Montana St., Cornell, New Mexico, Boise St.
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Big XII
6: ACC, Pac-10
5: SEC, Big 10
3: A-10
2: WCC

Alrighty then...

2008-01-11T12:16:00.000-05:00

If you decided to watch the three notable games last night (Louisville/WVU, WSU/USC, or Illinois/Wisconsin), you were disappointed. I tried to watch all three games, but found myself instead watching Arkansas/Auburn and UW-GB/Butler, and the inside of my eyelids (near the end of WSU and UCLA). So what did we learn last night?

Either Louisville has returned to form or West Virginia is just BAD on the road. Louisville did not look overly dominating, and since away from Morgantown the Mountaineer's best win came against either New Mexico St. or Auburn, I tend toward the latter.

Washington St. is clearly better than USC. We knew this already, but this further confirms it.

Arkansas is a bubble team, Auburn is an NIT/CBI team at best.

Butler will probably lose a couple more in-conference games this year. Although they won with a tough OOC schedule, they are not nearly as good on the road, and tend not to play as well in-conference. Because of this, they will not be a 4 seed like most people (including me) are projecting.

Oregon should be ecstatic about their win over Cal. They now have two wins over tournament-quality teams

New Mexico St., with their win in Boise, should be considered the favorite to win the WAC.

With Austin Peay's loss last night, the OVC is wide open, and the champion should expect a 16-seed.

The three teams from the Southland that were hyped for their lack of bad OOC losses (and a decent OOC win) have all lost their conference opener.

This weekend:

Friday

Siena at Niagara: The only Friday game worth noting matches the two contenders for the MAAC Championship.

Saturday

Florida St. @ Clemson: Clemson needs to rebound from the loss to Charlotte to avoid going on a three game losing streak. Florida St. would like to take advantage of the situation to add that quality win they've been looking for.

Ohio St. @ Purdue: Ohio St. needs this game to maintain position for a top 8 seed. Purdue needs this game to climb closer to the bubble.

Kansas @ Nebraska: The conference opener for both teams has the 4th lowest combined Pomeroy Ratings of Saturday.

Kansas St. @ Oklahoma: Two Big XII bubble teams currently on the good side of the bubble.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St: Two Big XII bubble teams currently on the bad side of the bubble.

UConn @ Georgetown (2:00 EST, ESPN): A match-up of the two Big East teams with starters over 7'. This also matches the team with the 14th fastest pace with the 317th fastest pace, which could be the deciding factor. Neither team is very good at free-throws (UConn has the edge, 66.4% to 60.4%). This should be a very good game, and has the 6th lowest combined Pomeroy Ratings for Saturday, with both teams in the top 34.

Notre Dame @ Marquette (2:00 EST, ESPN Full Court): The second-lowest combined Pomeroy Rating game of Saturday. Notre Dame has had two impressive home wins over West Virginia and UConn, and has a real chance to go and pick up their first true road win over a Marquette team that lacks the height to stop Harangody and is reeling after a loss to West Virginia and an ugly win over Seton Hall. A win here would establish the Irish as the second best team in the conference.

UC-Santa Barbara @ CSU-Fullerton: Two of the three best teams in the Big West square off.

San Diego St. @ New Mexico: This game will help sort out the 5-team jumble at the top of the Mountain West.

SE Missouri St. @ Austin Peay: The two best teams in the OVC square off.

Arizona @ Houston (3:00 EST, ESPN2): Arizona is currently 1-3 in true road games, with the win coming against UNLV. That record is deceiving, since those three losses came against Memphis by 13, in OT against Arizona St, and in OT against Kansas. Regardless, Arizona would like to have another OOC road win on their resume. 11-2 Houston needs a quality win to add to their resume. Their best win came against Kentucky, and they've lost to VCU and UMass. A win here would be of great help come Selection Sunday.

Washington St. @ UCLA (2:30 EST, Possibly Not Televised): I've searched everywhere, and I cannot find out if this game is televised. Seriously... when is the last time a game between two top-5 teams wasn't televised? This is the best game of the week according to the Pomeroy ratings. It's at approximately at the same time as my other 3 highlighted games, so I might not have gotten to watch it, but still... I'm sure that more of the country would watch this game over Arizona/Houston.

New Mexico St. @ Utah St.: After knocking off WAC competitor Boise St. on Thursday, NMSU has another road game against a team in the upper tier of the WAC.

Sunday

Syracuse @ West Virginia: The best game according to the Pomeroy Ratings features two teams that are a combined 3-3 in-conference. They both need this game.

Illinois @ Indiana: An under-achieving Illinois team heads to Bloomington.

Stanford @ Oregon (4:30 ET, CBS): This game won't tell us anything about either team, but it will probably be the best game on TV on Sunday (unless you want to watch the football games).

Alabama @ Arkansas: Arkansas fights to stay on the bubble. Alabama fights just to get talked about.

Thursday Update

2008-01-10T18:31:00.001-05:00

If this post sounds incoherent, it is because I got my wisdom teeth removed this morning and am on medication for the pain. If it is indeed incoherent (and not just containing debatable points), please comment as such. If I get a few of those comments, I will delete this post.

Did anyone see the UNC/UNC-Asheville game last night? I saw the Sportscenter highlights that talked about UNC-A’s Kenny George, but I’d like to know if he is nearly as good as they made him out to be.

Both Marquette and Seton Hall looked quite pathetic in the game Tuesday evening. While Seton Hall wasn’t supposed to be good, Marquette, a ranked team playing at home, seemed like they didn’t even want to win. Perhaps they were looking ahead to Notre Dame. Georgetown further established their dominance with the double-digit win at Depaul. Rutgers has established their place at the bottom of the Big East. Syracuse showed that they are not the lock that some have claimed them to be.

Some other quick thoughts:

After the tough loss against UNC that made me believe they were a legitimate team in the ACC, Clemson’s loss at home to Charlotte has me doubting them again. I’m not going to write off the Tigers because of one bad loss, but I will be keeping close watch on them. Charlotte also put the A-10 on notice that Dayton, RIU, and Xavier are not going to run away with the conference.
Speaking of the A-10, two games of note from last night. Dayton beat Rhode Island in a highly anticipated match-up in Dayton. I’m not convinced that Dayton is vastly superior, and look forward to the rematch on February 2. In addition, UMass losing to St. Joseph’s showed that there is not a clear-cut 4th team in the A-10 at this time.
Michigan St. had a close call at home against Purdue, following a close call at home against Minnesota. Something is wrong in East Lansing, and it may catch up with them sooner or later.
George Mason lost to Delaware. I will admit that I do not have the slightest clue who will win the CAA.
The Tennessee-Ole Miss game saw another team leave the group of the undefeated. However, it also validated Ole Miss’s start. Either one of these teams could end up winning the SEC.
St. Mary’s picked up that road win they needed, as did Florida.

Tonight:

West Virginia @ Louisville: At 4th and 30th respectively, this game has the lowest combined Pomeroy Ratings of the night. West Virginia is coming off the win against Marquette, while Louisville lost at home to Cincinnati the last time they played a Big East game.
Georgia St. @ Virginia Commonwealth: Georgia St. already beat conference favorite George Mason. A victory over VCU would seal the conference to a one-bid fate.
California @ Oregon: Two teams that will probably end up on the bubble.
Arkansas @ Auburn: Arkansas needs wins like these to remain on the happy side of bubble-land
New Mexico St. @ Boise St.: Two of the top teams in the WAC. A win at Boise would make NMSU the favorites to win the conference
Illinois @ Wisconsin: Illinois needs a miracle to receive an at-large berth. A win at Wisconsin would be a good start.
Washington St. @ USC: A loss at home would be USC’s third straight loss, and would keep the Cougars undefeated.

Catch-up

2008-01-08T17:00:00.001-05:00

Notre Dame beat Connecticut. This is old news by now. Everyone knows that Tory Jackson got hurt, though it is still questionable whether he was fouled. You don't need my opinion on that. After two Big East games, we have seen Notre Dame two ways. First, against West Virginia the Irish won because Harangody could get physical and score inside. Against Connecticut, Luke got blocked repeatedly, but the Irish still won thanks to the quickness of KMac. I believe that if Luke isn't getting blocked and the Irish can stop having second-half dry spells, then they can beat anyone. Since the tallest starter for Marquette is 6'6", I like the Irish chances this Saturday. They have yet to prove anything on the road, and they still have trouble maintaining a lead. Given the in-conference results this week, however, it seems that Notre Dame could be of the top four teams in the conference.

Elsewhere:

St. Mary's is still a good team, even if they did lose to Texas. They were playing on the road against a superior team, so it should not be held against them.
Oregon cannot be trusted to win or lose appropriate games. I would not count on them to make the tournament, but they should win some games that they are not supposed to.
How does Villanova follow up a loss to Depaul with a win over Pitt?
After losing to Penn St. on Sunday, Illinois needs a miracle (or three) to make the tournament.
UNC-Clemson was entertaining basketball because Clemson played so well. Cornell-Duke was entertaining basketball because Duke played so poorly. Duke could win this conference, but they could also end up third.
Auburn does not look like a legitimate tourney team. They've gotten blown out in their only games against good teams, and also lost to Tulane. According to the Pomeroy Ratings they are by far the worst team in the SEC, and are predicted to finish with a losing record.
Boston College's at-large hopes took a serious hit last night when they lost AT HOME to Robert Morris.

Tonight:

Florida @ Alabama: Both of these teams obtained their outstanding records by beating up weaker teams. They both have an outside chance at making the tournament, but need wins better than Georgia Southern and Missouri St., respectively
St. Mary's @ Fresno St.: The Gaels really need a true road win.
Holy Cross @ Maryland: Holy Cross is clearly the best team in the Patriot League, and has a chance for a nice road win here.
Georgetown @ Depaul: Depaul had an upset over Villanova and are 2-0 in the Big East. They will probably win tonight, but anything can happen in the Big East.

Seed List (After games of Jan. 6)

2008-01-06T22:07:00.000-05:00

I do not believe there is anything wrong with my method of creating a seed list. We have seen that upsets can happen. Therefore it seems foolish to me to project who will win which games. By the same token I have no good reason for creating brackets at this point in the season. Since I expect some movement up and down, it is foolish to create a bracket. I tend to find it fun and challenging, but there isn't a reason to have an actual bracket.

1: Memphis, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA
2: Michigan St., Washington St., Duke, Wisconsin
3: Texas, Tennessee, Marquette, Mississippi
4: Butler, Vanderbilt, Dayton, Texas A&M
5: Clemson, Rhode Island, Indiana, Georgetown
6: Pittsburgh, Ohio St., Xavier, St. Mary's
7: Arizona, Notre Dame, Villanova, Miami (FL)
8: Oklahoma, Boston College, West Virginia, Arizona St.
9: Drake, Nebraska, Massachusetts, Syracuse
10: Baylor, Oregon, Virginia, Stanford
11: Gonzaga, Kansas St., California, Southern Cal.
12: Providence, New Mexico, Stephen F. Austin, Kent St.
13: George Mason, South Alabama, Siena, Winthrop
14: IUPUI, CSU-Northridge, Boise St., Cornell
15: Holy Cross, Davidson, Montana St., ETSU
16: Austin Peay, Hampton, Long Island, UMBC, Alabama St.
Last 4 Out: Arkansas, Minnesota, Florida St., Houston
Conference Breakdown:
8: Pac-10, Big East
7: Big XII
6: ACC
4: A-10, Big 10
3: SEC
2: WCC
New Teams In: Oregon, Gonzaga, Stephen F. Austin, CSU-Northridge, Davidson, Cornell
Old Teams Out: Minnesota, Creighton, Sam Houston St, UC-Santa Barbara, Georgia Southern, Brown

I will be doing brackets again starting... January 27th, because that seems about the time that people start doing them.

Big East Opener

2008-01-03T23:41:00.000-05:00

Notre Dame looked impressive in their victory tonight over the visiting West Virginia Mountaineers, 69-56. Of particular note was the 29 point, 16 rebound performance of Luke Harangody, both career highs. Near the beginning of the game it seemed like West Virginia would dominate the boards, but somehow Notre Dame managed to neutralize their big guys. Throughout the game it felt like Notre Dame was in control, and the momentum West Virginia gained when they went up 14-11 was quickly neutralized by a pair of Ryan Ayres threes. Tonight was not a perfect game by a long shot - we had more than twice as many turnovers as WVU (20-9), with most of those being coughed up by Jackson, Hillesland, and Kurz. I was afraid that without the student section behind the team the game would play like a neutral-court game, but over 8000 showed up, and were quite vocal in support of the Irish. I encourage all Irish fans to come out and support the Irish Saturday night against UConn.

The other Big East games of the night went as expected, with the exception of Depaul upsetting 16th ranked Villanova. While many people find this shocking, I feel that this validates my refusal to put Nova higher than a 9 seed in my previous bracket. They had not beaten anyone of note, and had a loss to NC St. Although a loss to Depaul will hurt their resume, they still have a shot this year, what will the weakness of the mid-majors.

Speaking of the mid-majors:

Xavier added an impressive win to its collection tonight. The A-10 will get several bids to the tournament - unless they self-destruct, Xavier, Rhode Island, and Dayton are almost assured of making it, and UMass is firmly on the bubble.
The CAA has returned to one-bid status, with George Mason inexplicably losing to Georgia St on Wednesday.
The Horizon could be a two-bid league, if Butler continues to do well and loses in the conference championship. Which could happen.
The same goes with the WCC and St. Mary's or Gonzaga, though Gonzaga has to do a lot more to end up with an at-large than St. Mary's. I suppose that it could be a 3-bid league if someone else wins the conference tourney, but i don't think that will happen.
If the Valley elite keep on getting beat, the MVC could send only the conference champion to the tourney this year. After two games, we've learned that Creighton is not as good as believed. Nor is Southern Illinois. SIU needs an outstand conference record to make the tournament, while Creighton needs to just win the games it should. Only Drake seems to be in good position for an at-large bid.
I admit I was wrong about Georgia Southern in the SoCon. Davidson showed that they will win that conference. However, if they falter in the conference tourney, don't expect an at-large bid.
I still believe that if UCSB runs the table in-conference, they will receive an at-large level bid. Although they have no outstanding wins, they would have no bad losses. Their RPI and SOS would be pitiful, but the committee might overlook that. However, losing ANY conference game will send their seed plummeting.
The Mountain West is still a mystery. BYU, New Mexico, or UNLV might be able to garner an at-large... but probably not.

Thus I count only 4 mid-major at-larges: 1 to the MVC, 3 to the A-10. With so few, the MWC might sneak one in, but that still leaves 29 for the 6 major conferences, and the SEC is having a down year.