Seed List

Alright, I'm just going to release a Seed List right now, and hopefully by midnight I'll be able to produce a working bracket. This seed list isn't going to be anything definite - I'm still of the opinion that there is not nearly enough data to create a bracket at this point. However, I am going to attempt one. Feel free to criticize. However, three points I will not budge on - Texas as the 1 overall seed, St. Mary's (CA) as a 2 seed, and Alabama St. in the play-in game. This bracket, because of the scarcity of games played is mostly a hodgepodge of intuition, Ken Pomeroy's statistics, and record. One thing that I tried not to allow bias my thinking is the "name" recognition. I will not have a last 5 in/out, since I did not have nearly the level of attention that I will on Selection Sunday.
Without further ado:
1: Texas (Big XII), Washington St. (PAC-10), Duke (ACC), Marquette (Big East)
2: North Carolina, Kansas, Memphis (CUSA), St. Mary's (WCC)
3: UCLA, Oregon, Arkansas (SEC), Xavier (A-10)
4: Vanderbilt, Michigan St. (Big 10), Miami (FL), Tennessee
5: Butler (Horizon), Rhode Island, Clemson, Pittsburgh
6: Mississippi, Baylor, Gonzaga, Georgetown
7: West Virginia, Texas-Arlington (Southland), Dayton, Texas A&M
8: Boston College, Indiana, Stanford, UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
9: Arizona, Drake (MVC), Valpo, Creighton
10: Minnesota, Villanova, Sam Houston St., Georgia Southern (Southern)
11: Connecticut, Holy Cross (Patriot), Houston, Wisconsin
12: Florida St., Louisville, UNLV (Mountain West), BYU
13: Providence, Virginia, Miami (OH) (MAC), IUPUI (Summit)
14: Winthrop (Big South), George Mason (CAA), Siena (MAAC), South Alabama (Sun Belt)
15: Northern Arizona (Big Sky), Boise St. (WAC), Brown (Ivy), Hampton (MEAC)
16: UMBC (AE), East Tennessee St.(A-Sun), Tennessee-Martin (OVC), Wagner (NEC), Alabama St. (SWAC)
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Pac-10: 5
Big XII: 4
Big 10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
West Coast: 2
Southland: 2
Mountain West: 2
Conference USA: 2
Horizon: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
Read more!

Winter Break is Coming Soon

After beating Team Beasley (Kansas St.) in a neutral court game, Notre Dame finally has their significant non-conference game... right? Not if you look at RPI, which, though flawed, will be part of the evidence put before the selection committee come March. Although it will change once we arrive at the conference slate, right now 4-2 Long Island, who has no win better than Hartford, is ranked higher than Kansas State. We still have no wins against teams ranked in the top 100 in RPI. We should finish our non-conference slate 10-2 - according to Ken Pomeroy's (a leader in college basketball statistics), we have a 94% chance of winning those last four games.

Following those game we square off against West Virginia at home. This should give us a great opportunity to start our conference season off with a huge win. There is just one problem - The game is January 3rd. Students aren't allowed to move back onto campus until January 12th. Therefore, unless a whole lot of students live close and plan on driving to the game, it might as well be played on a neutral court. With home-court advantage factored in (and, given some observational evidence from thebracketboard.com, home-court advantage does seem to be real), we are only supposed to have a 14% chance to win. Without the Leprechaun Legion there to support our team, we will lucky to come away with this win. Those of you out there that support the Irish Basketball - Go to this game, and the game against Connecticut on the 5th. While you're there, cheer and cheer loudly.
Read more!

Reindeer Roast

I went to the game against Eastern Michigan last night, and was greatly surprised by the final score. It felt like Notre Dame cruised the whole game, and yet the final score was only 76-65. Part of the problem seems to be a tendency to shoot for the home run - rushing in for a spectacular dunk or a spectular jump shot or 3-pointer. Many times when someone is trying to whip a pass under the basket to Harangody or others the pass is errant or is intercepted. Also of concern is that Notre Dame once again let up off the gas before the end of the game. I don't know what is going on, but Brey needs to keep the team mentally focused on the game for 40 minutes.

Harangody and Macalerny have impressed me so far. Harangody has become a dominating presence inside on offense, although he needs to step up his defensive game. Eastern Michigan's top scorer last night, Justin Dobbins, spent most of the game coming inside, backing into Luke, and shooting an accurate turnaround jumper. The game was close until the last few minutes of the first half, mostly due to Luke's inability to stop Dobbins. Macalerny has shown no ill effects from his suspension last year. He's hitting many of the shots he takes, and has almost single-handedly established the perimeter threat.

Next week - Kansas St. on Wednesday. If we play as we have been, we will lose this game. If we stay focused for 40 minutes, we have a shot.

I wil not be publishing a bracket this weekend, as there is not sufficient data to warrant one.

I will not be
Read more!

Hands in the Window

The Leprechaun Legion was out in full force tonight, as the Fighting Irish rolled to an easy victory. The 94-63 outcome was never in doubt. Due to the quality of the opponent, I really did not see much worthy of comment in the Irish performance. I was, however, happy to see that the Irish did not have a second-half letdown like they had in the previous three games.

I will (hopefully) be posting a bracket this weekend, although it is quite possible for me to decide that not enough data has been collected and postpone it until the next weekend.
Read more!

Victory?

I finally made it to the fifth game of Notre Dame's season, and my fears were confirmed. Although Notre Dame did win the game easily (87-75), it seemed like the players didn't care much for the game. At one point they were cruising, and led by as much as 26 points. Once they built up the lead they started playing sloppy, missing easy shots and letting Youngstown St. steal the ball away. If YSU had been a better opponent, they could have easily come back and won the game.

This seems to be a trend, with disappointing losses to Georgia Tech and Baylor, both games that we should have won. If we continue to ease up when we take the lead, we will continue to lose games against good teams and have a horrible season. Monday we take on Colgate. I will be in attendance.
Read more!

The Terrors of the RPI

Today I watched Jim Colton's slideshow on the Flaws of the RPI. I highly recommend it for anyone who is interested on the accuracy of the RPI. It is rather lengthy (Part 1, just on the RPI, is 21:30), but informative at the same time. Futhermore, in Part 2, explaining the Colton Index, I am completely sold.

To give a quick overview of the Colton Index:

Playing bottom feeders can kill your RPI. A team playing 1, 2, and 330 at home has the same SOS as someone playing 110, 111, 112 on the road. A tournament quality team would go 1-2 against the first schedule, and 3-0 against the 2nd schedule. Therefore, the 2nd team is rewarded for not playing weak opponents by appearing better than the 1st team.

The Colton Index fixes this. He ranks the teams by W-L record, and then uses probability to establish how many games a tournament quality team should win. Teams that win more than that number are rewarded, teams that win fewer are penalized. Since this changes all the rankings, the process is repeated until the numbers stabilize.

Obviously I haven't done as good of a job as the presentation I linked to. But I now believe that the RPI is flawed, and I will not be using it as much this year.

The Colton Index will also now be linked on the side.
Read more!

07-08 Season

The new college basketball season kicks off soon (November 5, which is two weeks from yesterday), and the first games are... Richmond/Maine and Memphis/Tennessee-Martin. Perhaps we'll get an interesting game the next day out of Richmond and Memphis. November 10th could mark the first truly interesting game of the year, when Air Force and VMI should be playing (as long as they beat their throwaway opponents). The first match-up between high-quality teams should be the semifinal round of the Coaches Vs. Cancer tournament, when Connecticut and Kentucky will probably face off on November 14. Don't discount the TAMU/ORU matchup - Oral Roberts has been somewhat pesky in recent years.

Along with the new season, I am in a new location this year. I am now at Notre Dame, and will be attending every home game. I also will have much better access to the internet, and as such I do not believe that I will have the unfortunate experience of an inadequate final bracket like last year. I will not produce my first bracket until December 1st (or shortly thereafter), so don't look for it. I will however be occasionally giving my thoughts on Notre Dame basketball, their opponents, and how I think the college basketball season is going. Look for those to be coming out.
Read more!