Arkansas vs. Alabama and Why Illinois isn't in my projection

As you can see, I chose Arkansas in my last post. Here is my reasoning.

Alabama’s wins against the top 50 in RPI are Kentucky and Xavier, while Arkansas has won AT Southern Illinois and against Alabama twice. The Razorback’s worst losses are at LSU (a tough home environment), at Auburn, and at South Carolina, while the Tide’s worst are two against Auburn and two against Arkansas. Both teams are equally pitiful on the road; Arkansas is 1-8 while Alabama is 2-7. Arkansas played a much tougher schedule, with their SOS ranked 13 by realtimeRPI.com, as opposed to the 47 SOS of Alabama.

Obviously the differences between the teams are minimal. What sets Arkansas above Alabama is that Arkansas won twice, and Arkansas' impressive win on the road against SIU.

Illinois is not in my projections because of their 6-9 mark against the RPI top 100. The only teams they beat that will be getting at-large berths are Michigan St. and IU, both at home. In all fairness, they probably should be in my last 10 out, as they beat Bradley on the road, but I didn't see that when making those last projections. However, they haven't done enough to warrant a tourney bid. A Big 10 tourney run that includes another win against MSU or IU or a win against Wisconsin or OSU might get them in.
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