Well, at least I don't have to consider my team for these anymore

EDIT: (1:56 AM, February 16 - the seed list has been editted, because I just realized that I had 35 at-large teams. What a bonehead move). The above, of course, is in reference to St. John's beating the Gody-less Irish. Two weekends sandwiching a long week, and at long last a new seed list. Sometime tomorrow I'll post detailing the moves I made, but I'll make an acknowledgement - I've been severely underrating Purdue:

1: Kansas, Villanova, Kentucky, Purdue
2: Syracuse, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Duke
3: Georgetown, Pitt, Kansas St., Ohio St
4: Vanderbilt, Texas, Tennessee, Michigan St
5: Baylor, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, UNM
6: Texas A&M, Temple, BYU, Maryland
7: Marquette, Richmond, Georgia Tech, Missouri
8: Florida St, Clemson, Butler, Xavier
9: Florida, UNLV, UNI, Oklahoma St.
10: William & Mary, Illinois, USF, Ole Miss
11: Louisville, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Connecticut
12: Virginia Tech, Washington, Cornell, UTEP
13: Siena, Murray St., Nevada

First Four Out: Miami (FL), Dayton, Rhode Island, Oklahoma
New In: William and Mary, Illinois, Louisville, UConn
New Out: Dayton, Rhode Island, Northeastern, Utah St.

Big Movers: BYU (Down 4), Purdue (Up 3), Tennessee (Up 3), Richmond (Up 3), Charlotte (Down 3), Michigan State (Down 2), Texas (Down 2), Temple (Down 2), Mizzou (Down 2)

Bids by Conference:
Big East (9): Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pitt, Marquette, USF, Louisville, UConn
ACC (7): Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Florida St., Clemson, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas St, Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma St.
Big 10 (5): Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan St, Illinois
A-10 (4): Temple, Richmond, Xavier, Charlotte
MWC (3): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
CAA (2): William and Mary, Old Dominion

Regional Top 4:
Syracuse
1. Villanova
2. Wisconsin
3. Georgetown
4. Texas

St. Louis
1. Kansas
2. Syracuse
3. Ohio St.
4. Vanderbilt

Houston
1. Kentucky
2. Duke
3. Pittsburgh
4. Michigan St.

Utah
1. Purdue
2. West Virginia
3. Kansas St.
4. Tennessee
Read more!

What? Another Seed List this week? Okay!

So, thanks to reader comments, I went through my last seed list and thought critically about why teams were in their places, reevaluated the ability of teams to actually win certain games, and made some changes. Also, I thought about the autobids, and where they ought to be placed. So, for the first time this year - a full seed list.

Note - the vertical lines indicate where I believe there is a drop-off in quality of team. Also, in the autobids, if the conference is listed, then I believe that as long as one of the favorites wins the conference, they will be on that seed line. In that case, the conference is followed by the team that I believe will win the conference.

1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky Villanova
2: Duke, Texas, Michigan St, BYU
3: G’town, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Kansas St.
4: Temple, Pitt, Ohio St, Purdue
5: Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Baylor, Mizzou
6: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Maryland, Texas A&M
7: Tennessee, Xavier, Marquette, Rhode Island
8: Northern Iowa Georgia Tech, Florida St., Clemson
9: Florida, Butler, Charlotte, UNLV
10. Richmond, USF, Dayton Ole Miss
11: Oklahoma St, ODU, Virginia Tech, Cornell
12: Northeastern, Utah St Pac 10 (Washington), UAB
13: Siena Murray St, Nevada, Kent St
14: Big Sky (Weber St) Summit (Oakland), Sam Houston St. , SoCon (College of Charleston)
15: Pacific, Morgan St, Coastal Carolina Sun Belt (Western Kentucky)
16: A-Sun (Jacksonville) AE (Vermont), Robert Morris, Lehigh SWAC (UAPB)

Major Changes:
*Georgetown drops because of their home loss to USF, which also leads to South Florida making the bracket at the expense of Minnesota.
*Missouri drops because of their home loss to Texas A&M.
*Realized I was giving New Mexico and UNLV too much credit, dropped them a line. BYU is a great win; SDSU is not.
*Maryland beating Florida St. had a big impact as well, pushing Maryland into the next segment of teams.
*Reevaluated Butler, Virginia Tech, Cornell, and surrounding A-10 teams Charlotte, Richmond, and Dayton.
*I now believe Nevada will win the WAC on their home floor, so they are in the bracket, but I also gave Utah St a boost (since I sold last year's similar version short), bumping out St. Mary's.
*Vanderbilt gets bumped up, because I realized I had counted the Vandy-Kentucky game as a loss for both teams. Oops.
Read more!

Seed List #2

I apologize that this is about two days late. However, if you've been paying attention to my lack of posting, you'll probably surmise that A) I'm in this for myself, and B) I've been busy.

Anyhow: I've been hearing people talk about how large the bubble is, and I don't buy it. The way I see it, there are only about 10-15 teams right now that are even close to making the tournament. Of course, this is the time of year that everyone starts their annual "race to not make the tournament."

1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Georgetown
2: Duke, Villanova, Texas, Michigan St.
3: Brigham Young, West Virginia, Kansas St, Temple
4: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Missouri
5: Ohio St, Purdue, Baylor, Wake Forest
6: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Florida St, Tennessee
7: Xavier, Marquette, Maryland, URI
8: Clemson, Georgia Tech, UNI, UNLV
9: Texas A&M, Richmond, Cornell, Florida
10: Charlotte, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St., Dayton
11: Butler, Ole Miss, ODU, St. Mary’s
12: Northeastern, Louisville, Utah St, Cal
13: UAB, Siena

First Five Out: William & Mary, Connecticut, North Carolina, Miami, VCU

Regional Top 4:
Syracuse:
1. Georgetown
2. Duke
3. Kansas St.
4. New Mexico

St. Louis
1. Kansas
2. Villanova
3. Temple
4. Pitt

Houston
1. Kentucky
2. Texas
3. West Virginia
4. Wisconsin

Utah
1. Syracuse
2. Michigan St
3. BYU
4. Missouri

Bids By Conference:

ACC (7): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida St, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Big XII (7): Kansas, Texas, Kansas St, Mizzou, Baylor, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M
Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville
Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Xavier, Charlotte, Richmond, Rhode Island, Dayton
SEC (5): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Ole Miss
Big 10 (4): Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Purdue
MWC (3): BYU, UNLV, New Mexico
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
CAA (2): Old Dominion, Northeastern
Read more!

First Seed List of 2010

I'm tempted not to post this, since there are several glaring flaws. However, I've spent the majority of the past 4 hours on it, plus more time during the day on the Sunday. Its 6:30 AM - I think I'll just post it, and laugh at how ridiculous it it is later.

Disclaimer: This does not reflect where teams are now, but where I believe they will be at the end of this year.

1: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Texas (1)
2: Duke, G’town (2), Villanova (3), Wisconsin
3: West Virginia (4), Pittsburgh (5), Michigan St. (6), Kansas St. (7)
4: BYU, Ohio St. (8), Purdue (9), Wake Forest (10)
5: Temple, Mizzou (11), UNM (12), Clemson (13)
6: Tennessee (14), Vanderbilt (15), Baylor (16), Gonzaga
7: Georgia Tech (17), Florida (18), Florida St (19), UConn (20)
8: North Carolina (21), Maryland (22), UNLV (23), Butler
9: TAMU (24), Richmond (25), UNI, Mississippi St (26)
10: Utah St, Miami (27), Dayton (28), W&M
11: Oklahoma St (29), Marquette (30), Old Dominion(31) UAB
12: Virginia Tech (32), Ole Miss (33), Xavier (34), Cal

First Five Out: Cincinnati, Northeastern, St. Mary's, Washington, Seton Hall

By Conference:
ACC (9): Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida St, Maryland, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina
A-10 (5): Temple, Richmond, Dayton, Xavier
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Texas, Kansas St., Mizzou, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St
Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt, Connecticut, Marquette
Big 10 (4): Wisconsin, Michigan St, Purdue, Ohio St
CAA (2): William & Mary, Old Dominion
SEC (6): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi St, Ole Miss

Regional Top 4s
Northeast:
1: Texas
2: Duke
3: West Virginia
4: Purdue

Midwest:
1: Kentucky
2: Georgetown
3: Kansas St.
4: Wake Forest

South:
1: Kansas
2: Villanova
3: Michigan St.
4: Ohio St.

West:
1: Syracuse
2: Wisconsin
3: Pittsburgh
4: BYU
Read more!

FINAL Seed List

1: North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt, Connecticut
2: Michigan St, Memphis, Oklahoma, Duke
3: Villanova, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois
4: Syracuse, Florida St, Wake Forest, Purdue
5: Xavier, Washington, Arizona St, Texas
6: West Virginia, Clemson, UCLA, Gonzaga
7: Ohio St, Butler, BYU, Minnesota
8: Oklahoma St, Marquette, Tennessee, Utah
9: Michigan, Texas A&M, California, LSU
10: Arizona, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Boston College
11: Maryland, Siena, Dayton, Utah St.
12: Temple, Cleveland St, Mississippi St, Western Kentucky
13: Northern Iowa, Virginia Commonwealth, North Dakota St, Portland St.
14: Akron, Radford, Chattanooga, Binghamton
15: Morgan St, Stephen F. Austin, Cal State - Northridge, American
16: E. Tennessee St, Robert Morris, Cornell, Morehead St, Alabama St.

First Four Out: Penn St, Northwestern, Baylor, Creighton
Read more!

New Seed List

Finally got this one completed.

1: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Duke
2: Georgetown, Oklahoma, Butler, Michigan St.
3: Xavier, Marquette, Clemson, Illinois
4: Ohio St, Syracuse, Tennessee, Louisville
5: Connecticut, Texas, Gonzaga, Notre Dame
6: Arizona St, West Virginia, Kentucky, Villanova
7: Kansas, California, Baylor, Purdue
8: Minnesota, Florida, UCLA, Oklahoma St
9: Missouri, Brigham Young, Miami (FL), Utah St.
10: Davidson, St. Mary's, Maryland, Michigan
11: UNLV, Texas A&M, Kansas St., Florida St.
12: Utah, Memphis, Wisconsin, Siena
13: Western Kentucky, Virginia Commonwealth, Northern Iowa, Miami (OH)
14: VMI, Portland St, Cornell, North Dakota St.
15: Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, American, Long Beach St.
16: Jacksonville, Morgan St, Alabama St, Austin Peay vs. Robert Morris

Last Four Out: South Carolina, Penn St, Dayton, Washington
Next Four Out: Providence, Rhode Island, Stanford, College of Charleston

Big Movers: Louisville, Connecticut, Arizona St, Kentucky, Purdue, UCLA, Michigan

Seeds by Conference
Big East: 9
Big XII: 8
ACC: 7
Big 10: 7
SEC: 3
Pac-10: 3
MWC: 3
WCC: 2

Bracket: Maybe up soon?
Read more!

Seed List

Here's the new seed list. Note that Oklahoma isn't a true one, but I really don't they'll have 3 ACC 1 seeds.

1: Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Oklahoma
2: Clemson, Duke, Georgetown, Connecticut
3: Arizona St, Butler, Michigan St, Xavier
4: Illinois, West Virginia, Texas, Ohio St
5: UCLA, Tennessee, Marquette, Syracuse
6: California, Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Kansas
7: Miami (FL), Louisville, Missouri, Michigan
8: Oklahoma St, Villanova, Minnesota, Baylor
9: Kentucky, UNLV, Texas A&M, Brigham Young
10: Maryland, Purdue, Davidson, Florida
11: Wisconsin, South Carolina, St. Mary’s, Florida St.
12: Memphis, San Diego St, Utah St, Creighton
13: Miami (OH), George Mason, Western Kentucky, VMI
14: Siena, Portland St, North Dakota St, Belmont
15: Long Beach St, American, Lamar, Morehead St.
16: Boston U, Robert Morris, Cornell, Alabama St, Morgan St

Last Four In: South Carolina, St. Mary’s, Florida St, San Diego St.
First Four Out: Dayton, Utah, Penn St, Providence
Next Four Out: Rhode Island, Arizona, Stanford, Temple

New In: Villanova, St. Mary’s, Wisconsin
Old Out: Illinois St, Boston College, Washington

Moving Up: UConn, UCLA, Louisville, Minnesota, Marquette
Moving Down: Kentucky, Maryland, Creighton

Bracket

Read more!

Second Brackets are Pretty Painful, too

I spent about 8 hours on this. I don't want to look at it anymore tonight. Will revisit it in the morning.

Note: Finished before the games of January 6th.

1: Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Georgetown
2: Clemson, West Virginia, Duke, Oklahoma
3: Illinois, Michigan St, Butler, Arizona St
4: Syracuse, Xavier, Tennessee, Texas
5: Missouri, Connecticut, Kansas, California
6: Kentucky, Baylor, Ohio St., Miami (FL)
7: Notre Dame, Oklahoma St, Maryland, Gonzaga
8: Michigan, UCLA, Boston College, Florida
9: Creighton, BYU, Purdue, UNLV
10: Texas A&M, Florida St, Louisville, Davidson
11: Illinois St., Memphis, South Carolina, Minnesota
12: Washington, San Diego St, Utah St, Marquette
13: Miami (OH), Portland St, Pacific, George Mason
14: MTSU, Belmont , Niagara, VMI
15: North Dakota St., Austin Peay, Vermont, Lamar
16: Navy, Robert Morris, Morgan St., Cornell, Alabama St.

Last Five Out: Dayton, Villanova, Kansas St, Utah, LSU
Next Five Out: Wisconsin, Arizona, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Stanford

If I'm doing this right, these next two should see very little movement after this week. I attribute this to me being stupid last week.
Moved Up (4 or more): Wake Forest, California, Maryland, Oklahoma St, Boston College
Moved Down (4 or more): Michigan, UCLA, Purdue, Washington, Washington St, Arizona, Villanova

Bracket: Later

EDIT: I realized later that I had forgotten about Louisville. So they are in now, and Dayton is out. I'd also like to note that if this holds, we are going to have the strongest bubble in the three years I've been doing this.
Read more!

First Brackets are Always Most Painful

So, I went through today, and played out how I thought the rest of the season was going to go. And then I did this whole prediction thing. Now, some things may seem wacky. Others, just right. Okay, a lot of things will seem wacky. I dare you to challenge my logic. Ask me why I put someone above someone else. All you can do is require me to clarify my thinking, and possibly change how I think someone will fall.

Reminder: This is a projection out to the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended today.

1: North Carolina (ACC), Connecticut (Big East), Oklahoma (Big XII), Pittsburgh
2: Texas, Georgetown, Duke, Illinois (Big 10)
3: Purdue, Clemson, Michigan, UCLA (Pac-10)
4: Tennessee (SEC), Kansas, West Virginia, Arizona
5: Ohio St., Missouri, Kentucky, Arizona St
6: Butler (Horizon), Michigan St., Syracuse, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: Baylor, Xavier (A-10), Villanova, Notre Dame
8: Washington, Washington St, Wake Forest, Miami (FL)
9: California, Davidson (Southern), Northwestern, Creighton (MWC)
10: BYU, Minnesota, Louisville, Memphis (C-USA)
11: Utah St. (WAC), Maryland, Florida, Evansville
12: Dayton, Cleveland St., Kansas St., UNLV (MWC)
13: Miami (OH) (MAC), Portland St. (Big Sky), Niagara (MAAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
14: Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial), Virginia Military Institute (Big South), Lamar (Southland), Jacksonville St. (Ohio Valley)
15: North Dakota St. (Summit), Pacific (Big West), Albany (American East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Cornell (Ivy), Morgan St. (MEAC), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), Navy (Patriot), Texas Southern (SWAC)

Note: I project that UNLV will win the Mountain West Tournament on their home floor, since they do ridiculously well at home.

First Five Out: LSU, Illinois St., Marquette, Boston College, Southern Cal
Next Five Out: St. Mary's, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, Stanford, San Diego St

Bracket
Read more!

20 minutes!!! FINAL SEED LIST

Bracket Project Guy - Take this one.
Georgia Won, so VT is out. As noted earlier, I swapped South Alabama and Illinois St.

1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas
2: Texas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, Ohio St., South Alabama, UNLV
12: Georgia, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, UT-Arlington, Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, Illinois St., St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU
Read more!

16 Hours until the Selection Show

Its almost that time again. Some quick thoughts:
UCLA, UNC, and Memphis are all but assured of one seeds. The bubble starts at Arizona St. – that is, I would not be overly surprised to see any of them out. As I said yesterday, if Virginia Tech is competitive against UNC, they’ll get in. They did so – just one problem. Because of the way the bubble teams played, VT is the last team in. If either Georgia or Illinois wins their respective tournaments, then VT is out again, unless I change my mind and swap out Ohio St. instead. If both UGA and UI win, then both Ohio St. and Virginia Tech are out. No questions asked.
Texas and Kansas will be 4 and 5 overall, with the winner getting the 4 and the loser getting the 5. Besides this, the Southland championship, and the aforementioned scenarios involving Illinois, Georgia, VT, and OSU, nothing should change. If Texas, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Northwestern St. all win, this will be my final seed list.
Kentucky fans have to be in serious pain. I mean, all they had to do was not lose against bad teams, and they’d be golden. And they lost to the worst team in the SEC. Sheesh. Arkansas fans do not have to have similar worries, since Sunday championships have very little impact on the bracket. And to all those Arkansas fans out there – I’m paying attention. I maintain that they were out before the Vandy win, an 11 before the Tennessee win, and are now a 9.
My bracket will be coming out shortly. I just need to make sure there are no conflicts.
Italics now mean that the conference has NOT had their championship yet.

EDIT: After much deliberation, I decided to swap Illinois St and South Alabama. Also, I decided this about the conference tourneys: If Georgia wins, they replace VT. If Illinois wins, they replace Ohio St. If Texas-KU goes to overtime, Texas gets the 1 seed.
1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Texas
2: Kansas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, South Alabama, Ohio St., Virginia Tech
12: UNLV, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, Northwestern ST., Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, South Alabama, St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU
New Teams In: Temple, Boise St, Coppin St, Virginia Tech, UNLV
Old Teams Out: St. Joe’s, New Mexico St, Morgan St, Kentucky, Illinois St.
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10, ACC
4: SEC
3: WCC
2: MWC, Sun Belt, A-10
Read more!

Seed List through PI Day

Too tired to comment. Will remark on today’s events… tomorrow evening? Didn’t manage to complete a bracket, but I did make a list of the top four seed by region (yes, Tennessee will snipe the 1 seed in the North Carolina Regional). I can say that with the losses today, there are only 5 teams left on my bubble. Biggest Debate in my mind (especially if St. Joe's or Kent St. loses tomorrow): Ohio St vs. South Alabama vs. St. Joe's vs. UNLV vs. Kent St.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Xavier, Notre Dame, Drake
5: Pittsburgh, Butler, Washington St., Southern Cal
6: Clemson, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Arizona, Mississippi St., Davidson
9: Oregon, Kansas St., Arizona St., BYU
10: Baylor, Miami (FL), Villanova, Kentucky
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Arkansas, Ohio St.
12: South Alabama, St. Joe's, Kent St., San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Cal-State Fullerton, New Mexico St
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: Morgan St, American, Northwestern ST., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
Last Five Out: UNLV, VT , Dayton, Syracuse, VCU,
New Teams In: St. Joe's, Arkansas, CSU-Fullerton, Northwestern St.
Old Teams Out: Dayton, UNLV, UC-Santa Barabara, Stephen F. Austin
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10, SEC
4: ACC
3: WCC
2: A-10, MVC, Sun Belt

Texas Regional:
1. Memphis
2. Texas
3. Stanford
4. Notre Dame

Arizona Regional:
1. UCLA
2. Kansas
3. Marquette
4. Connecticut

Detroit Regional:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgetown
3. Wisconsin
4. Xavier

North Carolina Regional:
1. Tennessee
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Drake
Read more!

Seed List Through Thursday, March 13

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Xavier
4: Marquette, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Drake
5: Butler, Pittsburgh, Washington St., Southern Cal
6: Vanderbilt, Clemson, Indiana, Oklahoma
7: Purdue, West Virginia, Arizona, Texas A&M
8: Michigan St., Arizona St., Gonzaga, Oregon
9: Kansas St., Mississippi St., Davidson, BYU
10: Baylor, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Villanova
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Ohio St., Kent St.
12: Dayton, UNLV, South Alabama, San Diego
13: George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Mount St. Mary's, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, St. Joe’s, Syracuse, VCU
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, New Mexico
New Teams In: South Alabama, Mount St. Mary's
Old Teams Out: Syracuse, Sacred Heart
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10
4: ACC, SEC
3: WCC
2: MWC, A-10, MVC, Sun Belt
Read more!

Seed List Through Sunday, March 9

A little late on my part tonight.
Drake gets their auto-bid, ending the Valley Curse. IU and Michigan St. lost to bad teams, causing a severe drop. `I take back what I said yesterday about Davidson – they may get in even if they lose to Elon. In any case, it will be close if they lose. VCU shockingly lost to W&M, so they are done. Nebraska, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech are essentially done. However, reaching the Big XII finals should be enough for any of those three, as it would require beating either KU or UT.
As someone suggested yesterday in a comment, I considered conference records today, and that led to a little movement. As noted yesterday, the “Last Four Out” is misleading, because I don’t think that those teams have much of a chance at all.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis
2: Texas, Duke, Louisville, Kansas
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Xavier, Wisconsin
4: Notre Dame, Connecticut, Drake, Butler
5: Washington St., Marquette, Southern Cal, Clemson
6: Pittsburgh, Indiana, Arizona, Oklahoma
7: Texas A&M, West Virginia, Purdue, Vanderbilt
8: Michigan St., Arizona St, Baylor, Kansas St
9: Oregon, Miami, Gonzaga, Mississippi St.
10: BYU, Syracuse, Davidson, St. Mary’s,
11: Kentucky, Villanova, Illinois St., Kent St.
12: Ohio St., Dayton, Arkansas, UNLV
13: South Alabama, George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Sacred Heart, Alabama St.Last Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Maryland, Texas Tech, Massachusetts

New Teams In: George Mason, Sacred Heart
Old Teams Out: Virginia Commonwealth, Robert Morris

Edit: I took out something I wrote about St. Mary's/San Diego, which I apparently wrote before the end of the game, and then forgot to edit after USD's amazing comeback.
Read more!

Hartford Seed List - Through Saturday, March 8

Really, I didn’t want to put anyone in as that last seed. Arkansas doesn’t deserve it, St. Joe’s doesn’t deserve, TTU doesn’t deserve it, and UMass doesn’t deserve it. If VT can do well in the ACC tourney, they might deserve it. However, I’m just hoping that USD wins the WCC tournament, just so I don’t have to deal with that last spot. Cleveland St. from the Horizon, or any of the lower teams from the A-10 or a high-major league would also be welcome.
We now have four teams with automatic bids to the tournament – Cornell, Winthrop, Austin Peay, and Belmont. Also, because of the way the Southern Conference tournament has turned out, Davidson is no longer a shoo-in for an at-large. If you’ve been following college basketball, you probably know that Davidson has lots of wins over bad teams, no wins over good teams, and a few wins/losses against mediocre teams. The only thing keeping them in is their lack of losses against bad teams. Since Elon, College of Charleston, and UNC-Greensboro all upset their opponents, Davidson’s two remaining games would be considered bad losses, thus taking away the strongest attribute of their resume. However, this should not be a problem, since Davidson has been mowing down its opponents.
There was some movement in this seed list due to games played and re-evaluated logic. Biggest movers were Texas Tech (re-evaluation), Notre Dame (re-evaluation), Southern Cal (Big Win over Stanford), Georgetown (Big Win over Louisville), Vanderbilt (Bad loss to Alabama), and Miami (Bad Loss to Florida St.)
1: UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis
2: Texas, Duke, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Georgetown, Xavier, Connecticut
4: Wisconsin, Washington St., Indiana, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Southern Cal, Butler, Marquette
6: Clemson, Arizona, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Michigan St.
8: Arizona St, Baylor, Purdue, Oregon
9: Kansas St, Miami, Gonzaga, Mississippi St.
10: St. Mary’s, Villanova, BYU, Davidson
11: Syracuse, Illinois St., Kentucky, Kent St.
12: Maryland, Dayton, UNLV, Arkansas
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Texas Tech, Massachusetts, Virginia Tech
New Teams IN: UNLV, Dayton, Winthrop
Old Teams OUT: Texas Tech, St. Joseph’s, UNC-Asheville
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: ACC, SEC
4: Big 10
2: MVC, MWC, A-10, WCC
Read more!

Seed List through Friday, March 7

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Duke, UNC
2: Memphis, Texas, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Xavier, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
4: Georgetown, Connecticut, Washington St, Indiana
5: Butler, Marquette, Drake, Vanderbilt
6: Arizona, USC, Clemson, Texas A&M
7: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Michigan St., West Virginia
8: Arizona St., Miami, Baylor, Kansas St.
9: Purdue, Oregon, Mississippi St, Gonzaga
10: SMC, BYU, Davidson, Villanova
11: Illinois St, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Kentucky
12: Arkansas, Maryland, St. Joseph’s, Kent St.
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell, New Mexico St.
15: Portland St., UMBC, UNC-Asheville, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St., Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: UNLV, Dayton, Massachusetts, Nebraska
Others Considered: Ohio St., Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St, Wake Forest, Florida, New Mexico
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
5: ACC, SEC
4: Big 10
2: MVC, WCC, A-10
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Seed List through Monday, March 3

That's right, I'm a whole day behind. But I promise it is for a good reason. I decided to go through the steps of the selection process. However, I obviously am not 10 people. Rather, I am one. So first, I made up 4 lists - Team's Key Wins, Team's Record against RPI Top 50/100, Team's record against Pomeroy 50/100, Team's Record Against Colton 50/100. Then, I ran the selection process, if the process only had 4 people, one of whom only looked at the key wins, one of whom only looked at RPI, one of whom only looked at Pomeroy, and one of whom only looked at Colton. Like last time, I ignored conference champions (except for one to make the 12th seed line even). Here's how it turned out:

1: UCLA, Texas, Tennessee, Duke
2: UNC, Memphis, Kansas, Lousiville
3: Stanford, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Xavier
4: Washington St, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Indiana
5: Marquette, Arizona, Clemson, Michigan St.
6: Vanderbilt, USC, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Baylor, Oklahoma, Arizona St, Drake
8: Kansas St., Gonzaga, Miami (FL), Purdue
9: West Virginia, Mississippi St, Oregon, Butler
10: BYU, St. Mary’s, Nebraska, Wake Forest
11: Florida, Syracuse, Villanova, Kentucky
12: UNLV, Arkansas, Davidson, South Alabama
Last 4 Out: Maryland, Illinois St, Oklahoma St, Kent St.
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
6: SEC
5: ACC
4: Big 10
2: MWC, WCC
1: A-10, MVC, SoCon, Sun Belt, Horizon, CUSA

Since this wasn't entirely my opinion (after arranging the lists, it was all a matter of plug-and-chug), I'm not going to list the changes.

For my thoughts about this seed list/process, click the "Read More".

• As expected, the process was quite long, and very tedious. I started working on this Monday night, late, worked all through the morning and afternoon, and evening... so almost 15 hours straight. And yet I may do it again, the day before Selection Sunday. If I do so, I will probably also do my own, and do a bracket.
• I was shocked, really, that the A-10 only got one team in. This showed me that the worst case scenario has occurred - the worst teams in the league beating the best teams, and creating a muddied middle where all teams either have a dismal OOC resume or a dismal in-conference resume.
• Davidson actually made it in as the 45th team, but when going through the seeding procedures was moved to the "Last team in" Slot. I don't think this will happen during the actual selection process. If Davidson is in, then they'll probably be an 11, just because the seeding procedures allow for more "whos better than who" thinking.
• Could the Big East really get 9 teams in? Syracuse and Villanova hold tenuous positions, but I think they could do it. 6 BEast teams in the first 6 lines, which means 6 locks. WV is on the 9-line, and should be in unless they happen to draw Depaul, Provy, SJU, or SHU in the 1st round of the BET and lose in that 1st round.
• As for Syracuse and Villanova - each has winnable regular season games left, and probably should also win their first round game if they want to feel safe (although at this point they could theoretically face each other).
• SEC with 6 teams? Really? This could change easily in the next week and a half, with 3 teams firmly on the bubble.
• We all know that Duke-UNC will probably be a battle for a one seed. Each team, however, needs to pray for Tennessee to fall as much as possible. Otherwise, the Duke-UNC loser will be the team rewarded with Charlotte, not the winner.
• I'm not sure why Arizona St., Nebraska, and Texas A&M don't get any love. Or why Drake, Butler, USA, BYU, Purdue, and UNLV get so much love. Actually, I see a pattern here (ignoring Purdue). Year after year we hear sob stories about mid-majors who got snubbed, or about how such-and-such smaller team would totally own all the major conference teams if they just got the opportunity (and to the East Coast, the MWC might as well be a mid-major conference, even though they are not). Thus, bracketologists start subconsciously boosting mid-majors while devaluing major-conference teams. This fails for one reason: the committee. 4 committee members represent major conferences, and you can sure as shootin' believe that they'll pick another major conference team over a mid-major that could potentially embarrass a school they represent. Of the other 6, some will feel for the other mid-major schools, while the rest will only look out for the best interest of the schools they represent. Because of this division, the mid-majors (plus the MWC) get screwed.
• As for Purdue... I'm not sure how they ended up as an 8. Oh, right... its because they kept failing to advance to the "vote on seeding stage". They'd get selected as one of those 8 by two "people", and then the other two wouldn't. I expect the the Boilermakers will be closer to a 6 on March 16th.

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Seed List Through Friday, February 29

I don't have time to do the one-bid conference champions, so I'm going to take a leaf from Schmolik's book and leave them out (they aren't the important ones anyways)

1: Texas, Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA
2: North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Xavier
3: Stanford, Kansas, Notre Dame, Connecticut
4: Wisconsin, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Georgetown
5: Purdue, Marquette, Michigan St, Washington St.
6: Pittsburgh, Southern Cal, Kansas St, Clemson
7: Drake, Baylor, Arizona St, St. Mary’s
8: West Virginia, Gonzaga, Butler, BYU
9: Arizona, Texas A&M, Kent St., Oklahoma
10: Miami (FL), California, Syracuse, Wake Forest
11: Oregon, UNLV, Davidson, Villanova
12: Mississippi St., Maryland, St. Joseph’s, South Alabama
13: Illinois St.
Last Four Out: Florida, UMass, Rhode Island, Kentucky
Conference Breakdown
8: Pac-10, Big East
6: ACC, Big XII
4: Big 10
3: SEC
2: WCC, A-10, MWC, MVC

EDIT: I forgot Oklahoma. They are now in, and I moved Illinois St. out.
EDIT: Wow, mistake after mistake. Illinois St. back in after I realized I was short a team.
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