Finals Study Break

First off, I would like to respond to the comments from my last post.
UMass is beginning to put together a strong tournament resume. Wins on the road against Boston College and Syracuse will look attractive to the selection committee - if those teams do well. Unfortunately, the losses to IUPUI and Northern Iowa hurt, especially since UNI is performing well below expectations. I believe that to make the tournament UMass must finish in the top three in their conference. They must win their next four games (Vandy is currently 2nd in RPI, and a loss there will not hurt), and they cannot lose a conference game to anyone not name Rhode Island, Xavier, Duquesne, or Dayton. A win at Vanderbilt will give UMass a little more leeway, but not much.

That second home non-conference lost hurt Boston College. Unless they can beat Kansas, BC's only standout non-conference win will be their home win against Rhode Island. If they were playing in almost any other conference, they would be in good shape. Instead, they play in the ACC, where Ken Pomeroy's statistics are currently projecting them to go 8-8. At 18-11, with only one good nonconference win, Boston College will be sweating on Selection Sunday. Without examining other potential bubble teams more closely, I can't tell whether BC would be in or not. My guess is that they would be left out.

Florida St. is hard to judge right now. Their two big wins (Minnesota and Florida) have come against teams that spent the rest of their non-conference schedule beating up on lesser teams. How those two do in their conference schedule will have a major impact on Florida St. A loss this Saturday to Butler will probably not hurt the Seminoles, but it will be a major lost opportunity. To feel any degree of safety in their tournament hopes, I would agree that Florida St. must win this weekend. In fact, they should win the rest of the non-conference games as well. A loss in any other game (except perhaps Providence) will be a third bad loss, and with the brutal ACC schedule ahead will probably be enough to keep them out of the tournament.

Staying within the ACC, but moving past the comments, the Hurricanes have set themselves up for a bid on the bubble. They've beaten everyone so far, and they scheduled a bunch of moderately difficult teams who they have good chance at success against. I would not be at all surprised to see Miami entering the ACC schedule undefeated, though they have to get past Mississippi St. on the road tonight. As long as Miami then has a winning conference record, I believe they will make the tournament. They will not be a 4 seed like they were in my previous bracket.

I'm excited for the Georgetown-Memphis matchup a week from Saturday, because this will be the first time that Georgetown has played anyone of note. I've been loathe to give them a good seed so far for this reason, and if they can win this game they will get major points. If not, the Selection Committee will have very little to reward them for in their non-conference schedule, and Georgetown may get a lower seed than they deserve.

The Southland Conference could possibly get two teams into the tournament this year. I believe this will happen if both Sam Houston St. and Texas-Arlington finish with only one loss (to each other), and then meet in the conference final. Each team would have one decent win (Sam Houston over Texas Tech, Arlington over Oklahoma St. and Wichita St. on the road), and I believe that such a scenario would make them both tournament-worthy (probably in the 8-11 seed range). However, I think that if this were to happen, the school who lost in the conference final would probably find themselves as the most deserving team left out.

I've procrastinated long enough. Back to studying for finals.