Monday, December 31, 2007

Unable to Post

I promise another seed list will be coming out soon (either today or tomorrow). I have created it, but it is saved to a computer that I cannot access the internet from. I hope to also respond to the comment about why I do my brackets as if the season ended today sometime within the week.
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Monday, December 24, 2007


Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – Long Island/Brown (NEC/IVY)
9 – Dayton
8 – Arizona St.
Omaha, Nebraska
5 – Clemson
12 – UNLV
13 – South Alabama (Sun Belt)
4 – Marquette
Anaheim, California
3 – UCLA
14 – Georgia Southern (SoCon)
11 – UCSB (Big West)
6 – Baylor
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Wisconsin
10 – Creighton
15 – ETSU (Atlantic Sun)
2 – North Carolina

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – Washington St. (Pac-10)
16 – Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
9 – Massachusetts
8 – Nebraska
Tampa, Florida
5 – St Mary’s (WCC)
12 – Boston College
13 – Holy Cross (Patriot)
4 – West Virginia
Birmingham, Alabama
3 – Mississippi
14 – New Mexico St. (WAC)
11 – Syracuse
6 – Sam Houston St. (Southland)
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – BYU (MWC)
10 – Indiana
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas

North Carolina Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 - Memphis (C-USA)
16 – Morgan St. (MEAC)
9 – Virginia
8 – Ohio St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Georgetown
12 – George Mason (CAA)
13 – USC
4 – Texas A&M
Birmingham, Alabama
3 – Tennessee (SEC)
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Minnesota
6 – Arizona
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Rhode Island (A-10)
10 – Notre Dame
15 – UMBC (America East)
2 – Duke (ACC)

Detroit Regional
Washington, D.C.
1 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
16 – Alabama St. (SWAC)
9 – Stanford
8 – Xavier
Denver, Colorado
5 – Miami (FL)
12 – Kansas St.
13 – Miami (OH) (MAC)
4 – Butler (Horizon)
Tampa, Florida
3 – Vanderbilt
14 – Siena (MAAC)
11 – California
6 – Drake (MVC)
Washington, D.C.
7 – Providence
10 – Oklahoma
15 – IUPUI (Summit)
2 – Michigan St. (Big 10)
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Sunday, December 23, 2007

Seed List

Bracket, thoughts on Saturday will be coming tomorrow, after I finish Christmas shopping and wrapping. Here is a seed list, much changed from the last one. Please note that I did not make a mistake: Neither Gonzaga nor Oregon is in this one.

1: Memphis, Pittsburgh, Washington St., Texas
2: Kansas, Duke, Michigan St., North Carolina
3: Tennessee, UCLA, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
4: Marquette, Butler, Texas A&M, West Virginia
5: Georgetown, St. Mary’s, Miami (FL), Baylor
6: Clemson, Sam Houston St., Drake, Arizona
7: Rhode Island, Wisconsin, BYU, Xavier
8: Arizona St., Providence, Ohio St., Nebraska
9: Virginia, Dayton, Oklahoma, Massachusetts
10: Indiana, Stanford, Creighton, UCSB
11: California, Boston College, Notre Dame, Minnesota
12: USC, UNLV, Kansas St., Syracuse
13: Miami (OH), George Mason, S. Alabama, Holy Cross
14: Winthrop, Siena, Georgia Southern, IUPUI
15: New Mexico St., UMBC, Morgan St., Northern Arizona, ETSU
16: ETSU, Long Island, Brown, Austin Peay, Alabama St.

Breakdown By Conference:
7: Big East, Pac-10
6: Big XII, ACC
5: Big 10
4: A-10
3: SEC
New Teams In: Syracuse, Kansas St., Oklahoma, USC, Virginia, Nebraska, Arizona St., Providence, Brown, Austin Peay, S. Alabama, New Mexico St., Morgan St.
Old Teams Out: Oregon, Connecticut, Florida, Texas-Arlington, Arkansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Valparaiso, Cornell, Murray St., N. Texas, Nevada, Hampton
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Monday, December 17, 2007

Sorry UT-A

Every time I've talked about the seedings, I've mentioned that I thought it was very possible that the Southland Conference would get two bids to the tournament. I will now say that it will not happen. For the Southland Conference to get two bids, Texas-Arlington and Sam Houston St. both needed to stay undefeated in games not against each other. With Texas-Arlington's loss in OT this evening against TCU, this scenario came to and end. If SHSU goes undefeated the rest of the year, they should get a top 9 bid. There will not, however, be two bids to the Southland Conference this year.
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Sunday, December 16, 2007

Seed List

I'm not doing a bracket, even though I have it mostly set up, because I do not have enough time to resolve a problem around 11/12/13. However, the changes in my seed list (which reflects more time spent considering various teams) should give enough for you.

1: Texas, Duke, Washington St., Kansas
2: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Michigan St.
3: Marquette, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Miami (FL)
4: Indiana, St. Mary’s, Rhode Island, Tennessee
5: Clemson, Mississippi, Georgetown, Butler
6: Baylor, West Virginia, Dayton, Sam Houston St.
7: Drake, Texas A&M, Creighton, Valparaiso
8: Stanford, Villanova, Gonzaga, UC-Santa Barbara
9: Wisconsin, Holy Cross, Texas-Arlington, Arizona
10: Oregon, Brigham Young, Xavier, UNLV
11: Connecticut, Minnesota, Arkansas, California
12: Notre Dame, Boston College, UMass, Ohio St.
13: Florida, George Mason, Georgia Southern, Miami (OH)
14: North Texas, Siena, IUPUI, Winthrop
15: Hampton, Nevada, Murray St., East Tennessee St.
16: Cornell, Long Island, Northern Arizona, UMBC, Alabama St.

Last Four In: Boston College, UMass, Ohio St., Florida
Last Four Out: Syracuse, Louisville, Florida St., Purdue

Dropped out: Providence, Virginia, Houston, Louisville, Florida St., S. Alabama, Boise St., Brown, Tennessee-Martin, Wagner
Added: Notre Dame, California, Florida, Ohio St., UMass, North Texas, Nevada, Cornell, Murray St., Long Island

Breakdown by Conference:

7: Big East
6: Pac-10
5: SEC, Big 10, ACC
4: Big 12, A-10
2: WCC, Horizon, Southland, MWC, MVC
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Thursday, December 13, 2007

Finals Study Break

First off, I would like to respond to the comments from my last post.
UMass is beginning to put together a strong tournament resume. Wins on the road against Boston College and Syracuse will look attractive to the selection committee - if those teams do well. Unfortunately, the losses to IUPUI and Northern Iowa hurt, especially since UNI is performing well below expectations. I believe that to make the tournament UMass must finish in the top three in their conference. They must win their next four games (Vandy is currently 2nd in RPI, and a loss there will not hurt), and they cannot lose a conference game to anyone not name Rhode Island, Xavier, Duquesne, or Dayton. A win at Vanderbilt will give UMass a little more leeway, but not much.

That second home non-conference lost hurt Boston College. Unless they can beat Kansas, BC's only standout non-conference win will be their home win against Rhode Island. If they were playing in almost any other conference, they would be in good shape. Instead, they play in the ACC, where Ken Pomeroy's statistics are currently projecting them to go 8-8. At 18-11, with only one good nonconference win, Boston College will be sweating on Selection Sunday. Without examining other potential bubble teams more closely, I can't tell whether BC would be in or not. My guess is that they would be left out.

Florida St. is hard to judge right now. Their two big wins (Minnesota and Florida) have come against teams that spent the rest of their non-conference schedule beating up on lesser teams. How those two do in their conference schedule will have a major impact on Florida St. A loss this Saturday to Butler will probably not hurt the Seminoles, but it will be a major lost opportunity. To feel any degree of safety in their tournament hopes, I would agree that Florida St. must win this weekend. In fact, they should win the rest of the non-conference games as well. A loss in any other game (except perhaps Providence) will be a third bad loss, and with the brutal ACC schedule ahead will probably be enough to keep them out of the tournament.

Staying within the ACC, but moving past the comments, the Hurricanes have set themselves up for a bid on the bubble. They've beaten everyone so far, and they scheduled a bunch of moderately difficult teams who they have good chance at success against. I would not be at all surprised to see Miami entering the ACC schedule undefeated, though they have to get past Mississippi St. on the road tonight. As long as Miami then has a winning conference record, I believe they will make the tournament. They will not be a 4 seed like they were in my previous bracket.

I'm excited for the Georgetown-Memphis matchup a week from Saturday, because this will be the first time that Georgetown has played anyone of note. I've been loathe to give them a good seed so far for this reason, and if they can win this game they will get major points. If not, the Selection Committee will have very little to reward them for in their non-conference schedule, and Georgetown may get a lower seed than they deserve.

The Southland Conference could possibly get two teams into the tournament this year. I believe this will happen if both Sam Houston St. and Texas-Arlington finish with only one loss (to each other), and then meet in the conference final. Each team would have one decent win (Sam Houston over Texas Tech, Arlington over Oklahoma St. and Wichita St. on the road), and I believe that such a scenario would make them both tournament-worthy (probably in the 8-11 seed range). However, I think that if this were to happen, the school who lost in the conference final would probably find themselves as the most deserving team left out.

I've procrastinated long enough. Back to studying for finals.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007


Of course, as soon as I make a wild and outrageous statement (namely that St. Mary's should definitely be a 2 seed), they go off and lose, to Southern Illinois no less. It was the Gaels first road game, and definitely makes them suspect. Except for Texas and Gonzaga, the Gaels will need to win the remainder of their games to have a realistic shot at the tournament.
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Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Bracket on Crack

No seeding changes from yesterday besides what was necessary to make it work. A friend who looked at my list believes that I am on some illicit drug, but as I said last night, I'm trying to put very little emphasis on who is supposed to be good and more emphasis on who has done something this year. Please let me know if there is something wrong with my bracket (in terms of rules, not my seedings). Feel free to disagree with any seedings (other than Texas, Duke, St. Mary's, and Alabama St.).

Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII 1)
16 – Play-in (Wagner, Alabama St.)
9 – Creighton (MVC 2)
8 – Indiana (Big 10 2)
Birmingham, Alabama
5 – Butler (Horizon 1)
12 – Louisville (Big East 7)
13 – IUPUI
4 – Miami (FL) (ACC 3)
Denver, Colorado
3 – Oregon (Pac-10 3)
14 – George Mason
11 – Holy Cross
6 – Gonzaga (WCC 2)
Little Rock, Arkansas
7 – Georgetown (Big East 3)
10 – Georgia Southern
15 – Boise St.
2 – Memphis (CUSA 1)

Arizona Regional
Omaha, Nebraska
1 – Washington St. (Pac-10 1)
16 –Tennessee-Martin
9 – Valpo (Horizon 2)
8 – West Virginia (Big East 4)
Birmingham, Alabama
5 – Rhode Island (A-10 2)
12 – Virginia (ACC 8)
13 – Miami (OH)
4 – Michigan St. (Big 10 1)
Tampa, Florida
3 – Arkansas (SEC 1)
14 – Siena
11 – Houston (CUSA 2)
6 – Boston College (ACC 4)
Anaheim, California
7 – Baylor (Big XII 3)
10 – Villanova (Big East 5)
15 – Northern Arizona
2 – St. Mary’s (WCC 1)

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – Duke (ACC 1)
16 – East Tennessee St.
9 – Drake (MVC 1)
8 – Stanford (Pac-10 4)
Washington, D.C.
5 – Pittsburgh (Big East 2)
12 – BYU (MWC 2)
13 – Florida St. (ACC 7)
4 – Tennessee (SEC 1)
Anaheim, California
3 – UCLA (Pac 10 2)
14 – Winthrop
11 – Connecticut (Big East 6)
6 – Dayton (A-10 3)
Denver, Colorado
7 – Texas-Arlington (Southland 1)
10 – Minnesota (Big 10 3)
15 – Brown
2 – Kansas (Big XII 2)

Detroit Regional
Omaha, Nebraska
1 – Marquette (Big East 1)
16 – Maryland-Baltimore County
9 – Arizona (Pac-10 5)
8 – UC Santa Barbara
Tampa, Florida
5 – Clemson (ACC 4)
12 – UNLV (MWC 1)
13 – South Alabama
4 – Vanderbilt (SEC 2)
Washington, DC
3 – Xavier (A-10 1)
14 – Providence (Big East 8)
11 – Wisconsin (Big 10 4)
6 – Mississippi (SEC 3)
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Texas A&M (Big XII 4)
10 – Sam Houston St. (Southland 2)
15 - Hampton
2 – North Carolina (ACC 2)
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Monday, December 10, 2007

Seed List

Alright, I'm just going to release a Seed List right now, and hopefully by midnight I'll be able to produce a working bracket. This seed list isn't going to be anything definite - I'm still of the opinion that there is not nearly enough data to create a bracket at this point. However, I am going to attempt one. Feel free to criticize. However, three points I will not budge on - Texas as the 1 overall seed, St. Mary's (CA) as a 2 seed, and Alabama St. in the play-in game. This bracket, because of the scarcity of games played is mostly a hodgepodge of intuition, Ken Pomeroy's statistics, and record. One thing that I tried not to allow bias my thinking is the "name" recognition. I will not have a last 5 in/out, since I did not have nearly the level of attention that I will on Selection Sunday.
Without further ado:
1: Texas (Big XII), Washington St. (PAC-10), Duke (ACC), Marquette (Big East)
2: North Carolina, Kansas, Memphis (CUSA), St. Mary's (WCC)
3: UCLA, Oregon, Arkansas (SEC), Xavier (A-10)
4: Vanderbilt, Michigan St. (Big 10), Miami (FL), Tennessee
5: Butler (Horizon), Rhode Island, Clemson, Pittsburgh
6: Mississippi, Baylor, Gonzaga, Georgetown
7: West Virginia, Texas-Arlington (Southland), Dayton, Texas A&M
8: Boston College, Indiana, Stanford, UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
9: Arizona, Drake (MVC), Valpo, Creighton
10: Minnesota, Villanova, Sam Houston St., Georgia Southern (Southern)
11: Connecticut, Holy Cross (Patriot), Houston, Wisconsin
12: Florida St., Louisville, UNLV (Mountain West), BYU
13: Providence, Virginia, Miami (OH) (MAC), IUPUI (Summit)
14: Winthrop (Big South), George Mason (CAA), Siena (MAAC), South Alabama (Sun Belt)
15: Northern Arizona (Big Sky), Boise St. (WAC), Brown (Ivy), Hampton (MEAC)
16: UMBC (AE), East Tennessee St.(A-Sun), Tennessee-Martin (OVC), Wagner (NEC), Alabama St. (SWAC)
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Pac-10: 5
Big XII: 4
Big 10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
West Coast: 2
Southland: 2
Mountain West: 2
Conference USA: 2
Horizon: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
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Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Winter Break is Coming Soon

After beating Team Beasley (Kansas St.) in a neutral court game, Notre Dame finally has their significant non-conference game... right? Not if you look at RPI, which, though flawed, will be part of the evidence put before the selection committee come March. Although it will change once we arrive at the conference slate, right now 4-2 Long Island, who has no win better than Hartford, is ranked higher than Kansas State. We still have no wins against teams ranked in the top 100 in RPI. We should finish our non-conference slate 10-2 - according to Ken Pomeroy's (a leader in college basketball statistics), we have a 94% chance of winning those last four games.

Following those game we square off against West Virginia at home. This should give us a great opportunity to start our conference season off with a huge win. There is just one problem - The game is January 3rd. Students aren't allowed to move back onto campus until January 12th. Therefore, unless a whole lot of students live close and plan on driving to the game, it might as well be played on a neutral court. With home-court advantage factored in (and, given some observational evidence from, home-court advantage does seem to be real), we are only supposed to have a 14% chance to win. Without the Leprechaun Legion there to support our team, we will lucky to come away with this win. Those of you out there that support the Irish Basketball - Go to this game, and the game against Connecticut on the 5th. While you're there, cheer and cheer loudly.
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Sunday, December 2, 2007

Reindeer Roast

I went to the game against Eastern Michigan last night, and was greatly surprised by the final score. It felt like Notre Dame cruised the whole game, and yet the final score was only 76-65. Part of the problem seems to be a tendency to shoot for the home run - rushing in for a spectacular dunk or a spectular jump shot or 3-pointer. Many times when someone is trying to whip a pass under the basket to Harangody or others the pass is errant or is intercepted. Also of concern is that Notre Dame once again let up off the gas before the end of the game. I don't know what is going on, but Brey needs to keep the team mentally focused on the game for 40 minutes.

Harangody and Macalerny have impressed me so far. Harangody has become a dominating presence inside on offense, although he needs to step up his defensive game. Eastern Michigan's top scorer last night, Justin Dobbins, spent most of the game coming inside, backing into Luke, and shooting an accurate turnaround jumper. The game was close until the last few minutes of the first half, mostly due to Luke's inability to stop Dobbins. Macalerny has shown no ill effects from his suspension last year. He's hitting many of the shots he takes, and has almost single-handedly established the perimeter threat.

Next week - Kansas St. on Wednesday. If we play as we have been, we will lose this game. If we stay focused for 40 minutes, we have a shot.

I wil not be publishing a bracket this weekend, as there is not sufficient data to warrant one.

I will not be
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