Because I like jumping around... the Big 10

I’m now in the hotel lounge, watching the Wisconsin - Michigan game, and thought it would be an appropriate time to discuss the Big 10. (Note: I finished this around 7:18, and thus could reference all of the day’s Big 10 action). I'll eventually get around to doing all the conferences - just give me about a week or two.

Highly Likely:

Ohio St.: They looked like the team to beat in the Big 10 – at least until West Virginia wiped the floor with them. As it is, the wins over Miami (FL), Butler, and Notre Dame will look very good, probably good enough to get them in with a mediocre Big 10 campaign.

Illinois: As bad as they looked last night, they did beat a good Purdue team. I’m really not sure what to say about the Illini – they beat up Mizzou, and they almost beat Clemson. I would venture to say they aren’t as good as the 2-line I put them at, but they could make it there based on what they’ve done so far.

Purdue: The loss to Illinois was yet another wake-up call to the young Boilermaker team. Although they scored a dominant win over Davidson, they haven’t yet shown they can play consistently with the best. I present to you the destruction put on at Mackey by Duke. I fear for Purdue going into the Big 10 season – if they can’t win at Mackey, how can they hope to win at Kohl?

Michigan: Although they are projected to fare poorest of the five teams I have listed here, they had arguably the best out-of-conference performance of any of the four. Any time you beat Duke AND UCLA, you’re going to get some respect. While the loss to Maryland took some of the luster off, they still should get in, even if they go 8-10 in the Big 10.

Michigan St.: They beat Texas, and they’ve only lost to Maryland and UNC. That same Maryland team that beat Michigan. Perhaps Maryland isn’t so bad. Anyhow, they’ve also ended the undefeated run of Minnesota, and I they should be able to pick up home wins over the Big 10 powers – enough that I’d give them a fairly high likelihood of getting in.

Likely In:

Minnesota: I’ve reversed my thinking on Minnesota vs. Northwestern. While Minnesota did beat Louisville, and was undefeated until today’s earlier loss to Michigan St., they still don’t have that much to support their at-large candidacy, especially if Louisville’s weak season continues into the Big East schedule. Should they break 20 wins, however, it would be tough to keep them out.

Likely Out:

Wisconsin: When all you can hang your hat on out-of-conference is that you played Texas tough, you’ve not done well. However, they kicked off the Big 10 season right with the win over Michigan, and if they can pick up a couple of big wins, they could make it to the tournament.

Iowa: Iowa’s signature win is Kansas St. They have losses against Boston College and Drake, neither of which I project in at the moment. They have the slowest tempo of play in DI basketball, which will score them some upsets, but I’m sure they still won’t do very well in the Big 10 season. Thus, I don't see them making the tournament.

Northwestern: Sure, they haven’t had terrible losses – Butler may be a top 15 team, and Stanford is undefeated so far. But their one decent win – against Florida St. – may not make the playoffs. And that loss today against the Nittany Lions looks bad. I don’t think the Big Ten can get more than 7 teams in, and Northwestern needs to beat one of the better teams to have a hope.

Penn St.: When I started formulating this post a few days ago, I didn’t even have Penn St. as a possibility. I mean, we are talking a team whose best OOC win was against a struggling Georgia Tech team that may not end up with a top-100 RPI. But their win at home against Northwestern led me to look again, and I suppose the losses aren’t so bad that they necessarily couldn’t make it. But that won’t be possible with the 5-13 Big 10 record I am currently projecting.

Definitely Out – Indiana
Read more!

30th Wrap-up, 31st games of import

So, I was hoping to skip a night, avoid paying for hotel internet, and pick it back up this afternoon at home. But I'm travelling with my brother, and he's come down with the flu, so I'll be ringing in the New Year in Lexington, hopefully while watching UNC's perfect season go down the drains - no offense Tarheel fans, but I'd like to think that you'll have some competition for the title this year.

Here's what happened last night:

Illinois 71, Purdue 67 OT
Neither of these teams looked very good, but at a packed Mackey Arena, Illinois showed that they were the better team. Despite having 16 fewer free throws, (27-11) and a phantom foul on Purdue’s last (real) shot of regulation, Illinois managed to pull out a game that was back and forth. One thing I noticed last night is that Purdue still looked young – making bad decisions and so forth. I think they’ll probably lose a game or two that they shouldn’t – which is why Sunday they’ll be moved out of the top four seed lines.

Arkansas 96, Oklahoma 88
I thought this might happen. Oklahoma was looking ahead to the tough Big XII schedule. Arkansas, who is pretty much dead in the water in the weak SEC, is looking to revenge last year’s loss in Norman. I still think Oklahoma will snag a #1 seed – they'll still do very well, and at this point, the other options are 3 Big East teams, or a 2/2 split between the Big East and ACC. However, Blake Griffin will have to step it up in-conference

Butler 72, UAB 68; Dayton 66, George Mason 62
UAB scheduled a tough team, Dayton scheduled a decent team. UAB lost, and still has nothing to show for it, except for the A+ in effort that they’ve received all year. Dayton wins, and lives to see another day.

Wright St. 71, Cleveland State 62; Southern Miss 78, Ole Miss 59; San Diego 64, Mississippi St 61 OT; Chattanooga 99, Niagara 84
Goodbye Cleveland St., Goodbye Ole Miss, Goodbye Mississippi St, Goodbye Niagara. Your outside shots of making the tournament? Gone. The Vikings may still be on the bubble in March, but I doubt they’ll make it in. Moreover, the two Mississippi losses make the SEC a weaker conference, negating the benefits of the Arkansas win. The Niagara loss just assures the MAAC of being a one-bid conference.

BYU 74, Tulsa 68
BYU is known as a team that can’t win on the road. They did here however – probably the reason they scheduled this game.

And tonight's games - a pretty good slate.

North Carolina @ Nevada
North Carolina, showing off their “Anyone, anywhere” philosophy. When I saw this game on their schedule, I mentally noted this as one of a few places the Tarheels might stumble. I still believe this. So far, UNC’s three closest games have been Notre Dame (the best team they’ve played), UPenn (the first game of the season), and UC-Santa Barbara (their only other road game). I expect that the Wolfpack faithful will prove a bit fiercer than those of UCSB.

Gonzaga @ Utah
Gonzaga is on a two game losing streak, but they are still one of the best teams around. However, a loss at a tough Utah team could be devastating to their high seed hopes. Utah, meanwhile, is playing for their lives here. They have almost no shot at winning the Mountain West Tournament, and their projected resume leaves a lot to be desired. A win here would be necessary to even get them back in the tournament discussion.

UNLV @ Louisville
UNLV rocked Arizona at home, could they do the same to Louisville on the road? Probably not, since UNLV enjoys one of the largest home court advantages. But you never know - a win here would be a boon to the Rebels.

Evansville @ Illinois St.
Another matchup of top teams from the Valley. Evansville showed that they are real against Drake. If the Aces can win here, they can relax for a bit.

Iowa @ Ohio St.; Michigan St. @ Minnesota; Northwestern @ Penn St.; Wisconsin @ Michigan
The Big 10 is probably one of the biggest question marks at this point. This might help clear the waters (or muddy them more).

EDIT: Bother. I was just looking at Arkansas (something I should have done substantially earlier), and I was shocked. They might be able to parley the Oklahoma win into a tournament bid. Also, Michigan St. - Minnesota was 2-2 after 6:30. Oh Big 10, how I hate you.
Read more!

29th Wrap-up

Georgetown 74, Connecticut 63:
So, I'm out visiting relatives this week. Imagine my dismay when, of all times, they pick 7:00 for dinner. 7:00 - the one time that I pleaded they not schedule anything for. I dashed back to the hotel after dinner, and went to the bar, only to discover that the hotel doesn't get ESPN2. Major lack of planning here. *Winces* I'll get my taste of elite Big East basketball soon. In any case - for all you out there that doubted Hoya might (Ahem, CJ), here's your proof, in Hartford. I'm actually worried for my Irish now - no student section + no South Bend support (since it is a weeknight) = a quiet JACC = Georgetown headed for a victory.

Davidson 79, Charleston 75
Briefly considered ditching the family to attend this game. Wish I had. The hotel doesn't get the U either, and I was tired enough not to go searching for it. I spent the final 2 minutes of this game yelling at the computer screen to update faster, especially when Lovedale fouled out. Davidson should go undefeated in conference, but here's a question. Does the College of Charleston have a shot at making the tournament? They could make a similar argument to Davidson of last year (well, not undefeated, but only losses to Davidson is almost the same thing).

Memphis 60, Cincinnati 45
I talked about this yesterday. Memphis stays in the bubble hunt. Cincinnati still gasping for air. Note: if not for a last second free throw by Cincy, each team would have scored the same amount of points in the first and second half.

Santa Clara 83, Belmont 80
How cruel, for Santa Clara to defeat such a nice Belmont team. Belmont better be careful, or they may take Navy's spot on the 16 line. On a related note, how unlucky is Belmont? If you ignore the 14 point loss at Pitt, they have lost 4 games by a total of 8 points - 2 to Austin Peay, 1 to Jacksonville, 2 to Tennessee, and 3 here to Santa Clara. *Wince* I wouldn't want to be the team matched up against them in the first round.

Baylor 79, Portland St 66
Well... I'm sure you can find something positive about this loss. But Portland St. should probably just focus on not losing in the Big Sky.

CSU-Northridge defeats CSU-Fullerton
So, I'm not staying up just to see the final score of this game, which is 80-58 with 5 to go. Just know that a CSU-Northridge win @ CSU-Fullerton puts them firmly in the challenger spot.

Cornell 89, Boston U 59
America East, you are the weak link in the chain. For your crimes, you are relegated to the 16-seed line.

I'll try to wake up early and do previews for the next two days. No promises, though. I think you'll live if I don't.
Read more!

28th Wrap, 29th Games of Import

Here's what happened last night:

Evansville 76, Drake 65:
Well, we now know that Evansville *should* challenge for the MVC crown. I know, I know yada yada they can't keep it up for the whole year. But thats what they said about Drake LAST year. However, the games at SIU and Drake could be interesting.

Florida St. 82, Western Kentucky 69:
Florida St. keeps their hopes alive. In fact, at this point, the Noles have a pretty good resume. But, as a wise blogger said last year, someone has to win the games, and someone has to lose the games, and the rest of the season looks not at all promising for Florida St . Meanwhile, Western Kentucky's slim at-large hopes have faded.

Stanford 111, Texas Tech 66: What a blow-out! Stanford is now 9-0! With... 0 good wins. Sheesh. Schedule some better OOC teams, especially when your conference has two teams that are going to drag you down.

Iowa St. 71, Houston 67: A second bad loss for Houston probably puts them out of reach of the tournament. Also, how much do the Cyclones wish they had that Hawaii win now? 9-3 and only one bad loss would have been manageable entering the conference schedule.

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69: Indiana is bad. This is a very disappointing loss.

Finally! After a long hiatus, we have a day with several great games on tap.

Georgetown @ Connecticut: The game of the night – Georgetown begins a run of three difficult games, which will help determine whether they are deserving of the #1 spot in the Pomeroy Rankings (actually, UNC probably won’t hold that spot for a few more games, simply because they’ve been playing their back-ups so much). I really don’t have anything to say here, other than noting that it should be a great game, and we’ll evaluate these two tomorrow.

Cincinnati @ Memphis: If you just look at the names involved in this game, then you probably won’t think much of this game. But the fact of the matter is that Cincinnati and Memphis are not at all safe. Cincinnati has decent wins over UAB and UNLV, but they are still headed for a pretty bad conference record – besides the free wins over Depaul, Rutgers, and St. John’s, I wouldn’t count on anything. As for Memphis – while they haven’t had any bad losses, they haven’t had any decent wins either.

Temple @ Villanova: This game will determine whether Villanova had a good non-conference season or a bad one. With a win, they can be perceived as a team that beat everyone they were supposed to, and lost to the only elite team they played. With a loss, then Nova will be seen as underachievers. Temple would like this game very much. Two straight losses have made the Tennessee win a distant memory, and a 3-3 road mark isn’t going to wow anyone. A win over Villanova would right their ship, and put them in position to snag a tournament bid with a decent, upset-less conference run.

Davidson @ College of Charleston: Davidson has 9 days to sit and think about their blowout loss against Purdue. This isn’t a bad team, and they’ve got the win over West Virginia to prove it. However, this College of Charleston team is going to be the best chance of losing in-conference this year. Only one other SoCon team besides these two is in the top 200 – Western Carolina, who Davidson gets at home.

Portland St. @ Baylor: Portland St. might have a viable shot at a 12 seed if they can get a win here.

Boston @ Cornell: This game will probably help decide whether America East or Cornell is placed on the 16 seed line. That’s about the extent of why this game is important

Hopefully I'm run through all of the conferences over the next few days, but don't count on it. I'll be travelling the next few days, so I don't know what will happen. Hopefully I'll be able to make a post about the nine games I've identified as important during the time that I am away.

Read more!

First Brackets are Always Most Painful

So, I went through today, and played out how I thought the rest of the season was going to go. And then I did this whole prediction thing. Now, some things may seem wacky. Others, just right. Okay, a lot of things will seem wacky. I dare you to challenge my logic. Ask me why I put someone above someone else. All you can do is require me to clarify my thinking, and possibly change how I think someone will fall.

Reminder: This is a projection out to the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended today.

1: North Carolina (ACC), Connecticut (Big East), Oklahoma (Big XII), Pittsburgh
2: Texas, Georgetown, Duke, Illinois (Big 10)
3: Purdue, Clemson, Michigan, UCLA (Pac-10)
4: Tennessee (SEC), Kansas, West Virginia, Arizona
5: Ohio St., Missouri, Kentucky, Arizona St
6: Butler (Horizon), Michigan St., Syracuse, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: Baylor, Xavier (A-10), Villanova, Notre Dame
8: Washington, Washington St, Wake Forest, Miami (FL)
9: California, Davidson (Southern), Northwestern, Creighton (MWC)
10: BYU, Minnesota, Louisville, Memphis (C-USA)
11: Utah St. (WAC), Maryland, Florida, Evansville
12: Dayton, Cleveland St., Kansas St., UNLV (MWC)
13: Miami (OH) (MAC), Portland St. (Big Sky), Niagara (MAAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
14: Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial), Virginia Military Institute (Big South), Lamar (Southland), Jacksonville St. (Ohio Valley)
15: North Dakota St. (Summit), Pacific (Big West), Albany (American East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Cornell (Ivy), Morgan St. (MEAC), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), Navy (Patriot), Texas Southern (SWAC)

Note: I project that UNLV will win the Mountain West Tournament on their home floor, since they do ridiculously well at home.

First Five Out: LSU, Illinois St., Marquette, Boston College, Southern Cal
Next Five Out: St. Mary's, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, Stanford, San Diego St

Bracket
Read more!

December 27th Wrap-up

Running behind today. Hopefully will get a seed list out later, as well as finishing up the one-bids.

LSU 64, Washington St. 52
Alright, I was wrong. Happy? At halftime, these two teams had combined for 10-40 shooting. Pathetic. As a friend of mine said, this is what happens when you combine bad shooters and good defense. Bah – LSU gets their win, Wazzu gets relegated to the “Haven’t beaten anyone” bin.

Louisville 82, UAB 62
Louisville gets a much-needed decent win, after failing against Minnesota and Western Kentucky. UAB fails in that same endeavor. The Blazers really needs a win over Butler now to have a shot at making the tournament, which they will probably still need, since the conference tournament runs through Memphis.

West Virginia 76, Ohio St. 48
Holy crap. Either Lighty was that important, or Bob Huggins is an excellent coach. Seriously – Ohio St. was a top 15 team, that was heading for a spot in the top two lines. But a top team does NOT LOSE AT HOME by 30 points. But what worries me more is that the Buckeyes just stopped near the end of the game. This win also establishes West Virginia as a team on the rise in the Big East – not something that anyone in the conference wanted to hear.

Portland St. 63, Texas Southern 55; St. Mary’s 87, San Jose St. 78
Two games that were much tougher than they needed to be. But, both of these West Coast Wonders pulled it out.
Read more!

One-Bids (part one)

Ivy – After having at least one decent team for years, the Ivy League is having a down year. Only Cornell seems to be having any flashes of decency, almost winning at St. Joe’s, and keeping it reasonable at Minnesota and Syracuse. But losing by 15 to IU? 11 to St. John’s? Big Red should win the conference easily, but expect nothing higher than a 15.

Patriot – While American was an early favorite to shock major conference teams, it just hasn’t happened, and they’ve been pounded by Oklahoma and Georgetown. Moreover, Navy has looked surprisingly solid, almost winning at Villanova. Lehigh has also been a bit of a surprise – ranked 206 in the Pomeroy Rankings. However, it should be noted that that has come against the 322nd schedule, so they may be a bit worse. I’m still going to call this a two horse race, with the winner garnering a 15-seed and a tournament beatdown.

Southern - I hear you out there. “But Bryce! If Davidson wins out, and loses in the conference championship, then surely the Southern Conference will be a two bid conference.” And so it would be. But Davidson won’t beat Duke, and they won’t have a big win on their record. Moreover, if they don't get the autobid, then they’ll have a bad loss. That’s why the SoCon is still a one bid conference. However, Davidson should have nothing to fear – the only team with a halfway decent chance of beating the Wildcats is the College of Charleston, and for the first time in forever, the conference tourney isn't in Charleston - its in Chattanooga.

Big South – There has been a changing of the guard in the Big South. UNC-Asheville is subpar minus Kenny George. High Point has fallen off their role of perennial runner-ups. And Winthrop, banner-waver of the conference, is a woeful 1-9, and ranked 301 in the Pomeroy rankings – a far cry from 06-07, when they ran the conference, and defeated Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament. So who does that leave? Liberty and VMI. Liberty is about 10 points away from an excellent 12-1 record. Instead, they are 9-4, with no shot of an at-large bid. VMI started out the year with that upset over Kentucky, and continue to play their up-tempo style of catch, shoot, and little defense. Expect one of these two to be playing in March.

NEC, MEAC, SWAC – Lets not kid ourselves. The representatives of these conferences are headed for 16 seeds. It will be whatever school decides to hang tough and win the conference tournament. I’m not even going to attempt to predict these. (Well, the NEC rep might make 15. If, like, the A-Sun, Big South, and Southland Champions all come from the bottom of the league.) (Thus I draw irate hate mail from Mt. St. Mary’s fans, despite their 0-2 start to conference play).

Read more!

3 Day Plan

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday:
Fairfield @ UConn – Not really important. Just the ONLY game scheduled over those three days.

Saturday 27th:
West Virginia @ Ohio St. – West Virginia doesn’t have that signature win yet, and could pick it up here. A win @ OSU (the same Ohio St. team that beat Notre Dame on a neutral court) would lift the Mountaineers to fill the void left by Louisville. Ohio St, on the other hand, has an inside track to a 1 or 2 seed. So long as they keep winning, they should be fine.

UAB @ Louisville – Louisville needs a game to get back on track, after the tough losses to WKU and Minnesota. UAB, however, needs this win a bit more desperately. Without it, they’re going to have a really hard time making it to the tournament.

Washington St. @ LSU – What? You still think LSU is for real? You still think they have a shot at making the tournament? Here, let Wazzu dispel those illusions for you.

Since we have a two-day spot with no games, I think now would be an appropriate time to look at where we stand in terms of March. Since this (supposedly) requires looking at all 344 teams, I will be dividing this up into nine segments:
1. The Definite One-Bids
2. Western 1-4 bids (WCC/WAC/MWC)
3. Central 1-4 bids (Horizon/MVC/MAC)
4. Eastern 1-4 bids (A-10/C-USA/MAAC)
5. Weak Power Conferences (Pac-10/SEC)
6. Big East
7. Big 10
8. Big XII
9. ACC
I reserve the right to combine the last four. This may last through the playing of more games, but I'll try to get them all completed. Hopefully a bracket will get out? Who knows.
Read more!

Let-down Games

First, this week’s blogger’s top 25. Yea, go ahead and ridicule me for Maryland/Michigan. But I see nothing wrong with them.

So what were the ramifications of last night?

Portland St. 77, Gonzaga 70:
This wasn’t a game Gonzaga was supposed to lose. They were supposed to win the rest of their games (except maybe Tennessee), and get a top 3 seeding in the tournament. However, if you pop over to the bracket matrix, you can see that those brackets updated today are showing the Zags at a 4 or 5 seed. On the flip side, Portland St. is now looking at a respectable 13 seed, provided they win out except for Baylor. If they do manage to beat Baylor, then they’ll be looking at an 12, or perhaps an 11 with a respectable Bracketbuster victim – not bad for a team that was Jayhawk fodder last year. In any case, any Big Sky loss will be a bad one that will take them out of the running, so don’t expect a surprise two-bid conference.

Butler 74, Xavier 65:
Are you kidding me? If this doesn’t get Butler respect, nothing will. Combined with the beatdown suffered against Duke, expect Xavier to fall out of the public consciousness for a while – at least until they pound Virginia on the road in a week and a half. This will hurt Xavier’s eventual tournament seeding, but Butler is still a respectable team to lose to – better quality than anyone else in the A-10, anyways.

Arizona 84, Kansas 67:
Kansas misses another opportunity to shine. They still have opportunities in Tennessee and Michigan St., but failing those they’ll be on the bubble come March. Arizona on the other hand can probably breathe a bit easier now. Out of the mysterious Pac-10 teams (UA, UW, WSU, USC, Cal), they are probably in the best shape.

Texas 74, Wisconsin 69; Illinois 75, Missouri 59:
I really don’t have anything particularly insightful to say about either of these games. Texas continues to show that they are a top team. Wisconsin continues to give us reasons to be wary. Illinois gets a win to be proud of. Missouri fails (again) to get a win to be proud of.

UMBC 66, Nebraska 64:
When Nebraska beat Creighton earlier this year, I thought that Nebraska had a shot to make it to the tournament for the first time in 11 years. Last year they made the NIT as a 1-seed, so perhaps this was their shot. Now, however, with losses to Oregon St. and UMBC, they’re probably done (although, as Kentucky showed last year, power-conference teams can do anything with a strong conference run).

Iona 67, Hofstra 64:
You just can’t lose a game at home to an inferior opponent when you’re leading by 4 with a minute to go. Though Hofstra hadn’t beaten any quality opponents, they were still in line for the “we haven’t had too many bad losses card”. That play is now gone.

Siena 71, Buffalo 60:
Buffalo probably didn’t have a shot before this game, and this game might have sealed the deal. They’d need a pretty incredible run, plus a decent Bracketbuster game, to have any shot at an at-large. Meanwhile, Siena keeps chugging along.

Stanford 77, Santa Clara 69; St. Mary’s 74, Pacific 65; Niagara 83, St. Bonaventure 65:
Although not the highest level of opponent, each team picks up a road win here, which will be looked at come March. For St. Mary’s, this is the 7th straight win, all away from Moraga, including avenging last year’s Bracketbuster loss to Kent St. For Niagara, this is the 4th straight road win, important for this Purple Eagle team barely hanging on to tournament aspirations.

I will be travelling over the next few days, so I’m not sure how much of an Internet connection I’ll have. So I’m going to try to get ahead for the next few days. I’ll be posting those later when I get finished with them.
Read more!

Extended Absence

My (probably non-existent readers):

I am sorry for my extended absence from this blog. As of now, I am returning, and I plan to break down each game with some modicum of importance each day. As the non-conference season comes to a close, I will also be checking in on each conference, and giving my predictions.

So, for today:

Butler @ Xavier: Two mid-major teams that will make the tournament. This is a battle for seeding, and for national respect. Xavier is looking to rebound after their blowout loss to Duke, while Butler is still searching for that win to hang their hat on. Winner gets a spot in the top 25 next week (barring embarrassing losses).

Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis): Right now, Illinois has its road win over Vanderbilt, and a tough home loss (by two) to Clemson, while Missouri has a neutral court win over USC and a loss to Xavier. Both seem to be in prime position for a 6-9 seed, although with strong pushes could make it even higher. That push has to begin tonight.

Texas @ Wisconsin: Texas is acting the same way they did last year - beating some top teams, losing to others, and winning all the games they should. This game will determine whether they are close to a 3-4 or a 6-7. Wisconsin needs this win badly - their best win was against Virginia Tech (who will struggle to make the NIT). On the other side, they really haven't had bad losses, but without a win here, they'll need a pretty solid run in a surprisingly strong Big 10 to get off the bubble.

Kansas @ Arizona: Arizona and Kansas are definitely on the bubble right now - Arizona by virtue of their inability to win on the road (see: UNLV, TAMU), and Kansas because of their loss to UMass in KC (and lack of major wins). While each team may be on the right side of the bubble, a win here would be nice.

Buffalo @ Siena: Buffalo is in the logjam atop the MAC East, and as long as Evansville continues to do well, has nothing to fear from that loss. A win here would continue them on their path to an at-large bid. Siena was thought to be vying for an at-large bid this year, if for some reason (Niagara) they didn't win the MAAC, but right now they essentially need to win out (except for the championship) to snag an at-large (a feat that would include a win at Phog!).

St. Mary's @ Pacific: Both teams would really like to win this game. St. Mary's needs this win to keep it on track for an at-large bid to the tournament, while Pacific, an early frontrunner in the Big West Conference, is looking for one of those prized 13 seeds (well, prized for one-bid conferences, anyways).

Read more!