Because I like jumping around... the Big 10

I’m now in the hotel lounge, watching the Wisconsin - Michigan game, and thought it would be an appropriate time to discuss the Big 10. (Note: I finished this around 7:18, and thus could reference all of the day’s Big 10 action). I'll eventually get around to doing all the conferences - just give me about a week or two.

Highly Likely:

Ohio St.: They looked like the team to beat in the Big 10 – at least until West Virginia wiped the floor with them. As it is, the wins over Miami (FL), Butler, and Notre Dame will look very good, probably good enough to get them in with a mediocre Big 10 campaign.

Illinois: As bad as they looked last night, they did beat a good Purdue team. I’m really not sure what to say about the Illini – they beat up Mizzou, and they almost beat Clemson. I would venture to say they aren’t as good as the 2-line I put them at, but they could make it there based on what they’ve done so far.

Purdue: The loss to Illinois was yet another wake-up call to the young Boilermaker team. Although they scored a dominant win over Davidson, they haven’t yet shown they can play consistently with the best. I present to you the destruction put on at Mackey by Duke. I fear for Purdue going into the Big 10 season – if they can’t win at Mackey, how can they hope to win at Kohl?

Michigan: Although they are projected to fare poorest of the five teams I have listed here, they had arguably the best out-of-conference performance of any of the four. Any time you beat Duke AND UCLA, you’re going to get some respect. While the loss to Maryland took some of the luster off, they still should get in, even if they go 8-10 in the Big 10.

Michigan St.: They beat Texas, and they’ve only lost to Maryland and UNC. That same Maryland team that beat Michigan. Perhaps Maryland isn’t so bad. Anyhow, they’ve also ended the undefeated run of Minnesota, and I they should be able to pick up home wins over the Big 10 powers – enough that I’d give them a fairly high likelihood of getting in.

Likely In:

Minnesota: I’ve reversed my thinking on Minnesota vs. Northwestern. While Minnesota did beat Louisville, and was undefeated until today’s earlier loss to Michigan St., they still don’t have that much to support their at-large candidacy, especially if Louisville’s weak season continues into the Big East schedule. Should they break 20 wins, however, it would be tough to keep them out.

Likely Out:

Wisconsin: When all you can hang your hat on out-of-conference is that you played Texas tough, you’ve not done well. However, they kicked off the Big 10 season right with the win over Michigan, and if they can pick up a couple of big wins, they could make it to the tournament.

Iowa: Iowa’s signature win is Kansas St. They have losses against Boston College and Drake, neither of which I project in at the moment. They have the slowest tempo of play in DI basketball, which will score them some upsets, but I’m sure they still won’t do very well in the Big 10 season. Thus, I don't see them making the tournament.

Northwestern: Sure, they haven’t had terrible losses – Butler may be a top 15 team, and Stanford is undefeated so far. But their one decent win – against Florida St. – may not make the playoffs. And that loss today against the Nittany Lions looks bad. I don’t think the Big Ten can get more than 7 teams in, and Northwestern needs to beat one of the better teams to have a hope.

Penn St.: When I started formulating this post a few days ago, I didn’t even have Penn St. as a possibility. I mean, we are talking a team whose best OOC win was against a struggling Georgia Tech team that may not end up with a top-100 RPI. But their win at home against Northwestern led me to look again, and I suppose the losses aren’t so bad that they necessarily couldn’t make it. But that won’t be possible with the 5-13 Big 10 record I am currently projecting.

Definitely Out – Indiana