Let-down Games

First, this week’s blogger’s top 25. Yea, go ahead and ridicule me for Maryland/Michigan. But I see nothing wrong with them.

So what were the ramifications of last night?

Portland St. 77, Gonzaga 70:
This wasn’t a game Gonzaga was supposed to lose. They were supposed to win the rest of their games (except maybe Tennessee), and get a top 3 seeding in the tournament. However, if you pop over to the bracket matrix, you can see that those brackets updated today are showing the Zags at a 4 or 5 seed. On the flip side, Portland St. is now looking at a respectable 13 seed, provided they win out except for Baylor. If they do manage to beat Baylor, then they’ll be looking at an 12, or perhaps an 11 with a respectable Bracketbuster victim – not bad for a team that was Jayhawk fodder last year. In any case, any Big Sky loss will be a bad one that will take them out of the running, so don’t expect a surprise two-bid conference.

Butler 74, Xavier 65:
Are you kidding me? If this doesn’t get Butler respect, nothing will. Combined with the beatdown suffered against Duke, expect Xavier to fall out of the public consciousness for a while – at least until they pound Virginia on the road in a week and a half. This will hurt Xavier’s eventual tournament seeding, but Butler is still a respectable team to lose to – better quality than anyone else in the A-10, anyways.

Arizona 84, Kansas 67:
Kansas misses another opportunity to shine. They still have opportunities in Tennessee and Michigan St., but failing those they’ll be on the bubble come March. Arizona on the other hand can probably breathe a bit easier now. Out of the mysterious Pac-10 teams (UA, UW, WSU, USC, Cal), they are probably in the best shape.

Texas 74, Wisconsin 69; Illinois 75, Missouri 59:
I really don’t have anything particularly insightful to say about either of these games. Texas continues to show that they are a top team. Wisconsin continues to give us reasons to be wary. Illinois gets a win to be proud of. Missouri fails (again) to get a win to be proud of.

UMBC 66, Nebraska 64:
When Nebraska beat Creighton earlier this year, I thought that Nebraska had a shot to make it to the tournament for the first time in 11 years. Last year they made the NIT as a 1-seed, so perhaps this was their shot. Now, however, with losses to Oregon St. and UMBC, they’re probably done (although, as Kentucky showed last year, power-conference teams can do anything with a strong conference run).

Iona 67, Hofstra 64:
You just can’t lose a game at home to an inferior opponent when you’re leading by 4 with a minute to go. Though Hofstra hadn’t beaten any quality opponents, they were still in line for the “we haven’t had too many bad losses card”. That play is now gone.

Siena 71, Buffalo 60:
Buffalo probably didn’t have a shot before this game, and this game might have sealed the deal. They’d need a pretty incredible run, plus a decent Bracketbuster game, to have any shot at an at-large. Meanwhile, Siena keeps chugging along.

Stanford 77, Santa Clara 69; St. Mary’s 74, Pacific 65; Niagara 83, St. Bonaventure 65:
Although not the highest level of opponent, each team picks up a road win here, which will be looked at come March. For St. Mary’s, this is the 7th straight win, all away from Moraga, including avenging last year’s Bracketbuster loss to Kent St. For Niagara, this is the 4th straight road win, important for this Purple Eagle team barely hanging on to tournament aspirations.

I will be travelling over the next few days, so I’m not sure how much of an Internet connection I’ll have. So I’m going to try to get ahead for the next few days. I’ll be posting those later when I get finished with them.
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Extended Absence

My (probably non-existent readers):

I am sorry for my extended absence from this blog. As of now, I am returning, and I plan to break down each game with some modicum of importance each day. As the non-conference season comes to a close, I will also be checking in on each conference, and giving my predictions.

So, for today:

Butler @ Xavier: Two mid-major teams that will make the tournament. This is a battle for seeding, and for national respect. Xavier is looking to rebound after their blowout loss to Duke, while Butler is still searching for that win to hang their hat on. Winner gets a spot in the top 25 next week (barring embarrassing losses).

Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis): Right now, Illinois has its road win over Vanderbilt, and a tough home loss (by two) to Clemson, while Missouri has a neutral court win over USC and a loss to Xavier. Both seem to be in prime position for a 6-9 seed, although with strong pushes could make it even higher. That push has to begin tonight.

Texas @ Wisconsin: Texas is acting the same way they did last year - beating some top teams, losing to others, and winning all the games they should. This game will determine whether they are close to a 3-4 or a 6-7. Wisconsin needs this win badly - their best win was against Virginia Tech (who will struggle to make the NIT). On the other side, they really haven't had bad losses, but without a win here, they'll need a pretty solid run in a surprisingly strong Big 10 to get off the bubble.

Kansas @ Arizona: Arizona and Kansas are definitely on the bubble right now - Arizona by virtue of their inability to win on the road (see: UNLV, TAMU), and Kansas because of their loss to UMass in KC (and lack of major wins). While each team may be on the right side of the bubble, a win here would be nice.

Buffalo @ Siena: Buffalo is in the logjam atop the MAC East, and as long as Evansville continues to do well, has nothing to fear from that loss. A win here would continue them on their path to an at-large bid. Siena was thought to be vying for an at-large bid this year, if for some reason (Niagara) they didn't win the MAAC, but right now they essentially need to win out (except for the championship) to snag an at-large (a feat that would include a win at Phog!).

St. Mary's @ Pacific: Both teams would really like to win this game. St. Mary's needs this win to keep it on track for an at-large bid to the tournament, while Pacific, an early frontrunner in the Big West Conference, is looking for one of those prized 13 seeds (well, prized for one-bid conferences, anyways).

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