Darnit UConn, you're supposed to be bad!

Well, obviously UConn is going to show up here next week... So, what caused various movements in my seed list over the 9 days? (That is, what didn't I account for?)

Illinois (IN) beat Michigan St, beat Wisconsin at Kohl… what more could you ask for?
Louisville’s (IN) upset victory at Syracuse (Down 1) gave them the big win they needed to push up into the tournament, and the fact that it was on the road is the icing on top. That loss knocked Syracuse off the 1-line.
William & Mary (IN) was a change of opinion… I mean, 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, with wins at Wake Forest and Maryland… that’s pretty legit, in my opinion.
Richmond (Up 4) destroyed Temple and then went on the road and beat Rhode Island (OUT). The first is a good win, while the second is a decent win on the road. It also served as the final blow to Rhode Island’s fragile resume – 24-5 isn’t good enough when your best win is against Oklahoma St, and you’ve had several opportunities for better.
Tennessee (Up 3) impressed me in their loss at Kentucky, enough so that I decided that they will beat Kentucky when they come to Knoxville. Beat one one seed, you might be a fluke. Beat two one seeds, you’re the real deal. Obviously, if Tennessee loses to Kentucky, expect them to drop back down.
Purdue’s (Up 3) rise up the charts is due to two things. First, obviously they went out and beat Michigan St (Down 2) this past Saturday in East Lansing. Big wins are good, and this one means that I now have them tied for first in the conference, rather than in 3rd place. More importantly, however, they now have two road/neutral wins against top teams – and the committee like that. Michigan State, however, drops to only 3-4 against the RPI top 50, and as such cannot be considered to have an elite resume.
Northeastern (OUT) didn’t do anything to hurt themself. However, I decided that winning a conference that has no team above the 10 line is not in and of itself a good argument for inclusion, even if that conference seems to be on track for multiple bids. Expect this to be a big debate in the future.
Dayton (OUT) lost to SLU, which means I am now projecting them to finish 6th in the Atlantic 10. The A-10 is not quite strong enough to get 10 in. (Obviously, a change of heart from last week)
BYU (Down 4) is also a matter of changing opinions – I now think that their weak win total, and absence of strong wins will lead them to be seen as outside of the top tiers of teams.
Charlotte (Down 3), Temple (Down 2), and Xavier (Down 1) are a reaction to my overrating of the A-10 last week.
Texas (Down 2) lost to Oklahoma, then lost to Kansas. While I was expecting the former (since it was a classic trap game), I was not expecting the latter. This had a negative effect on the factors that I use to make my decisions.
Cornell (Down 1) and Northern Iowa (Down 1) were the result of weekend upsets, at UPenn and Bradley respectively.
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Extended Absence

My (probably non-existent readers):

I am sorry for my extended absence from this blog. As of now, I am returning, and I plan to break down each game with some modicum of importance each day. As the non-conference season comes to a close, I will also be checking in on each conference, and giving my predictions.

So, for today:

Butler @ Xavier: Two mid-major teams that will make the tournament. This is a battle for seeding, and for national respect. Xavier is looking to rebound after their blowout loss to Duke, while Butler is still searching for that win to hang their hat on. Winner gets a spot in the top 25 next week (barring embarrassing losses).

Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis): Right now, Illinois has its road win over Vanderbilt, and a tough home loss (by two) to Clemson, while Missouri has a neutral court win over USC and a loss to Xavier. Both seem to be in prime position for a 6-9 seed, although with strong pushes could make it even higher. That push has to begin tonight.

Texas @ Wisconsin: Texas is acting the same way they did last year - beating some top teams, losing to others, and winning all the games they should. This game will determine whether they are close to a 3-4 or a 6-7. Wisconsin needs this win badly - their best win was against Virginia Tech (who will struggle to make the NIT). On the other side, they really haven't had bad losses, but without a win here, they'll need a pretty solid run in a surprisingly strong Big 10 to get off the bubble.

Kansas @ Arizona: Arizona and Kansas are definitely on the bubble right now - Arizona by virtue of their inability to win on the road (see: UNLV, TAMU), and Kansas because of their loss to UMass in KC (and lack of major wins). While each team may be on the right side of the bubble, a win here would be nice.

Buffalo @ Siena: Buffalo is in the logjam atop the MAC East, and as long as Evansville continues to do well, has nothing to fear from that loss. A win here would continue them on their path to an at-large bid. Siena was thought to be vying for an at-large bid this year, if for some reason (Niagara) they didn't win the MAAC, but right now they essentially need to win out (except for the championship) to snag an at-large (a feat that would include a win at Phog!).

St. Mary's @ Pacific: Both teams would really like to win this game. St. Mary's needs this win to keep it on track for an at-large bid to the tournament, while Pacific, an early frontrunner in the Big West Conference, is looking for one of those prized 13 seeds (well, prized for one-bid conferences, anyways).

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