Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Seed List #2

I apologize that this is about two days late. However, if you've been paying attention to my lack of posting, you'll probably surmise that A) I'm in this for myself, and B) I've been busy.

Anyhow: I've been hearing people talk about how large the bubble is, and I don't buy it. The way I see it, there are only about 10-15 teams right now that are even close to making the tournament. Of course, this is the time of year that everyone starts their annual "race to not make the tournament."

1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Georgetown
2: Duke, Villanova, Texas, Michigan St.
3: Brigham Young, West Virginia, Kansas St, Temple
4: Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Missouri
5: Ohio St, Purdue, Baylor, Wake Forest
6: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Florida St, Tennessee
7: Xavier, Marquette, Maryland, URI
8: Clemson, Georgia Tech, UNI, UNLV
9: Texas A&M, Richmond, Cornell, Florida
10: Charlotte, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St., Dayton
11: Butler, Ole Miss, ODU, St. Mary’s
12: Northeastern, Louisville, Utah St, Cal
13: UAB, Siena

First Five Out: William & Mary, Connecticut, North Carolina, Miami, VCU

Regional Top 4:
Syracuse:
1. Georgetown
2. Duke
3. Kansas St.
4. New Mexico

St. Louis
1. Kansas
2. Villanova
3. Temple
4. Pitt

Houston
1. Kentucky
2. Texas
3. West Virginia
4. Wisconsin

Utah
1. Syracuse
2. Michigan St
3. BYU
4. Missouri

Bids By Conference:

ACC (7): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida St, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Big XII (7): Kansas, Texas, Kansas St, Mizzou, Baylor, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M
Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville
Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Xavier, Charlotte, Richmond, Rhode Island, Dayton
SEC (5): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Ole Miss
Big 10 (4): Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Purdue
MWC (3): BYU, UNLV, New Mexico
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
CAA (2): Old Dominion, Northeastern

5 comments:

hoosierdaddy1020 said...

Could you please explain to me how Butler drops 3 seeds, despite winning every game since your last projection and having an rpi in the top 20 plus a SOS that is still at 50. With 3 of their 4 losses to ncaa tourney teams in your projections.

erikrocks said...

Ah yes, your annual underseeding of Purdue is well under way. I had almost forgotten how in 2007, you were perhaps the only bracket who didn't have Purdue in it. That's the same Purdue team that won their first round game and gave Florida (the eventual national champion) their toughest (and closest) game of the tournament.

Can I ask how Pittsburgh is ahead of Purdue? Was it their loss at home to Indiana that convinced you they weren't that bad? How about their loss to South Florida? Seton Hall?

Purdue's worst lost is on the road to a bubble team.

Ridiculous.

Evilmonkeycma said...

Erikrocks:

Aha, you've caught me!

But seriously - MSU, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue all will end the regular season with nearly the same resume, with 24 wins, 5 against the top 50, and each winning the home end of the series against the other. All except Purdue, who got swept by the Buckeyes. Thus, I believe the committee will seed Purdue lowest of the four. (However, I realize that Ohio State could get a break from the committee due to the Turner injury, which would allow Purdue to get higher as well).

Pittsburgh is in that same jumble with the Big 10 teams. They'll probably end the season with 23 wins, but 6 against the top 50.

There are a few ways of breaking this "tie". The method you are suggesting is comparing losses. I discarded that method after last season, after seeing how the committee treated Boston College's bad losses. Which is to say, they didn't. The committee (apparently) doesn't care who you lose to. I assume the logic is that fluke games are so prevalent in basketball, that saying "how bad can this team be" is not a good measure of potential success.

However, this leaves the other side of the coin - has this team shown the ability to beat top teams? Moreover, can they beat top teams without the support of their fans? Pitt will have wins at Syracuse (a 1 seed), and versus Nova (who I think will be seen as one of the six teams in the "elite tier"). Purdue's only win on that level is Michigan St, which puts them below Pitt. (related: why did I put Pitt below Wisconsin? It is a mystery)

I hope this was helpful.

Hoosierdaddy - your response is getting its own post, which will be coming along soon.

Evilmonkeycma said...

Also, I made an error - Michigan will have 26 wins, and finish two games clear of the rest of the Big 10, which is why they are two seed lines above Wisconsin.

Zorak84 said...

Purude also split with Wisconsin and beat West Virginia and Tennessee. I think that warrants them to be ahead of at least Wisconsin. Jury's still out on MSU.