30th Wrap-up, 31st games of import

So, I was hoping to skip a night, avoid paying for hotel internet, and pick it back up this afternoon at home. But I'm travelling with my brother, and he's come down with the flu, so I'll be ringing in the New Year in Lexington, hopefully while watching UNC's perfect season go down the drains - no offense Tarheel fans, but I'd like to think that you'll have some competition for the title this year.

Here's what happened last night:

Illinois 71, Purdue 67 OT
Neither of these teams looked very good, but at a packed Mackey Arena, Illinois showed that they were the better team. Despite having 16 fewer free throws, (27-11) and a phantom foul on Purdue’s last (real) shot of regulation, Illinois managed to pull out a game that was back and forth. One thing I noticed last night is that Purdue still looked young – making bad decisions and so forth. I think they’ll probably lose a game or two that they shouldn’t – which is why Sunday they’ll be moved out of the top four seed lines.

Arkansas 96, Oklahoma 88
I thought this might happen. Oklahoma was looking ahead to the tough Big XII schedule. Arkansas, who is pretty much dead in the water in the weak SEC, is looking to revenge last year’s loss in Norman. I still think Oklahoma will snag a #1 seed – they'll still do very well, and at this point, the other options are 3 Big East teams, or a 2/2 split between the Big East and ACC. However, Blake Griffin will have to step it up in-conference

Butler 72, UAB 68; Dayton 66, George Mason 62
UAB scheduled a tough team, Dayton scheduled a decent team. UAB lost, and still has nothing to show for it, except for the A+ in effort that they’ve received all year. Dayton wins, and lives to see another day.

Wright St. 71, Cleveland State 62; Southern Miss 78, Ole Miss 59; San Diego 64, Mississippi St 61 OT; Chattanooga 99, Niagara 84
Goodbye Cleveland St., Goodbye Ole Miss, Goodbye Mississippi St, Goodbye Niagara. Your outside shots of making the tournament? Gone. The Vikings may still be on the bubble in March, but I doubt they’ll make it in. Moreover, the two Mississippi losses make the SEC a weaker conference, negating the benefits of the Arkansas win. The Niagara loss just assures the MAAC of being a one-bid conference.

BYU 74, Tulsa 68
BYU is known as a team that can’t win on the road. They did here however – probably the reason they scheduled this game.

And tonight's games - a pretty good slate.

North Carolina @ Nevada
North Carolina, showing off their “Anyone, anywhere” philosophy. When I saw this game on their schedule, I mentally noted this as one of a few places the Tarheels might stumble. I still believe this. So far, UNC’s three closest games have been Notre Dame (the best team they’ve played), UPenn (the first game of the season), and UC-Santa Barbara (their only other road game). I expect that the Wolfpack faithful will prove a bit fiercer than those of UCSB.

Gonzaga @ Utah
Gonzaga is on a two game losing streak, but they are still one of the best teams around. However, a loss at a tough Utah team could be devastating to their high seed hopes. Utah, meanwhile, is playing for their lives here. They have almost no shot at winning the Mountain West Tournament, and their projected resume leaves a lot to be desired. A win here would be necessary to even get them back in the tournament discussion.

UNLV @ Louisville
UNLV rocked Arizona at home, could they do the same to Louisville on the road? Probably not, since UNLV enjoys one of the largest home court advantages. But you never know - a win here would be a boon to the Rebels.

Evansville @ Illinois St.
Another matchup of top teams from the Valley. Evansville showed that they are real against Drake. If the Aces can win here, they can relax for a bit.

Iowa @ Ohio St.; Michigan St. @ Minnesota; Northwestern @ Penn St.; Wisconsin @ Michigan
The Big 10 is probably one of the biggest question marks at this point. This might help clear the waters (or muddy them more).

EDIT: Bother. I was just looking at Arkansas (something I should have done substantially earlier), and I was shocked. They might be able to parley the Oklahoma win into a tournament bid. Also, Michigan St. - Minnesota was 2-2 after 6:30. Oh Big 10, how I hate you.
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Its that time of year again

Yes, I know I've been a slacker. Duke and UCLA are already 2-0, and I've yet to make my first post of the year. Forgive me - I've had a stressful past few weeks.

Thus, despite my best intentions, I did not manage to get out a preseason bracket. I could have done a half-assed job, and presented it to you, but you don't deserve that. Therefore, I chose not to do one.

I will try to give my take on the important games of the night (as determined by me). I will not publish a bracket until mid-December at earliest, but mid-January at latest.

Also - do any of you remember the old buildabracket.net website? I remember it being pretty cool, with the different font colors representing how confidently they could be projected into the bracket, the death days of the various teams (the point at which it required a major miracle to get back into the postseason talk), the phoenixes (previously dead teams that have resurrected). I'm thinking about starting this back up - I don't think I'm violating any laws, since I'm neither profiting, nor were the ideas copyrighted. In addition, I'd like to do it because I thought they had a good thing going, and then they quit on it. So be looking for that.

Anyways, moving on to tonights games:

Rider vs. St. Joseph's - By all rights, Rider should have made the tournament last year, but got knocked off by the other decent MAAC team. Now, the elder Thompson graduated, but if Rider can start off strong with a win, there may be a push for a two-bid MAAC. Sounds crazy, right?

American @ Oklahoma - The darling semi-unknown midmajor, American Eagles, begin the season off the right way with a top fifteen team. There should be plenty of scoring - Oklahoma is a bruising inside team, while American prefers to pick off 3s from the perimeter.

Marist @ Rutgers - Burning question: Will Rutgers do anything this year? I mean, they'll finish ahead of USF, to be sure, but this game should be a good indicator of whether either team will amount to anything. If this game is close, the answer is no.

Stanford @ Yale - Notable only in location. Maybe the RPI is getting to coaches?

Missouri St. @ Auburn - Two unknown quantities for this season that could find themselves on the bubble come March. Winner gets a boost.

Also, some predictions for the year:

1. Davidson will not be as good as expected. The loss of their PG is just too great, even for Stephan Curry.

2. UNC will win the ACC by at least two games.

3. At least one of the Big East Big Four (UConn, Louisville, Pitt, ND) will suffer a devastating injury, which will have a heavy impact on seeding (like Pitt of last year).

4. The SWAC will continue to be bad. Like, less than 10 DI Non-conference wins bad.

5. NJIT will become a story if it continues its losing streak.

6. The WCC, MVC, and A-10 will be the only non-Big 6 conferences to get multiple bids.

7. The Big East will have 10 teams in the tournament or on the bubble come March.

8. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will both have a powerhouse or two, and a terrible remainder of the conference.

9. Stephen F. Austin will go undefeated, and lose in the second round of the tourney.

10. #1 seeds - UNC, UConn, UCLA, Pitt.

11. National Champions - UConn - No justification, just blatant Big East homerism. (Also, I think that Hansborough will be unpleasantly shocked by Thabeet - really, when does Hansborough have to go up against a big guy).

12. Purdue will sneak up on everyone... again.

13. I will lose sleep and fall behind on work due to this blog (free point for me!).

13 seems like a reasonable number.
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