One-Bids (part one)

Ivy – After having at least one decent team for years, the Ivy League is having a down year. Only Cornell seems to be having any flashes of decency, almost winning at St. Joe’s, and keeping it reasonable at Minnesota and Syracuse. But losing by 15 to IU? 11 to St. John’s? Big Red should win the conference easily, but expect nothing higher than a 15.

Patriot – While American was an early favorite to shock major conference teams, it just hasn’t happened, and they’ve been pounded by Oklahoma and Georgetown. Moreover, Navy has looked surprisingly solid, almost winning at Villanova. Lehigh has also been a bit of a surprise – ranked 206 in the Pomeroy Rankings. However, it should be noted that that has come against the 322nd schedule, so they may be a bit worse. I’m still going to call this a two horse race, with the winner garnering a 15-seed and a tournament beatdown.

Southern - I hear you out there. “But Bryce! If Davidson wins out, and loses in the conference championship, then surely the Southern Conference will be a two bid conference.” And so it would be. But Davidson won’t beat Duke, and they won’t have a big win on their record. Moreover, if they don't get the autobid, then they’ll have a bad loss. That’s why the SoCon is still a one bid conference. However, Davidson should have nothing to fear – the only team with a halfway decent chance of beating the Wildcats is the College of Charleston, and for the first time in forever, the conference tourney isn't in Charleston - its in Chattanooga.

Big South – There has been a changing of the guard in the Big South. UNC-Asheville is subpar minus Kenny George. High Point has fallen off their role of perennial runner-ups. And Winthrop, banner-waver of the conference, is a woeful 1-9, and ranked 301 in the Pomeroy rankings – a far cry from 06-07, when they ran the conference, and defeated Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament. So who does that leave? Liberty and VMI. Liberty is about 10 points away from an excellent 12-1 record. Instead, they are 9-4, with no shot of an at-large bid. VMI started out the year with that upset over Kentucky, and continue to play their up-tempo style of catch, shoot, and little defense. Expect one of these two to be playing in March.

NEC, MEAC, SWAC – Lets not kid ourselves. The representatives of these conferences are headed for 16 seeds. It will be whatever school decides to hang tough and win the conference tournament. I’m not even going to attempt to predict these. (Well, the NEC rep might make 15. If, like, the A-Sun, Big South, and Southland Champions all come from the bottom of the league.) (Thus I draw irate hate mail from Mt. St. Mary’s fans, despite their 0-2 start to conference play).

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Its that time of year again

Yes, I know I've been a slacker. Duke and UCLA are already 2-0, and I've yet to make my first post of the year. Forgive me - I've had a stressful past few weeks.

Thus, despite my best intentions, I did not manage to get out a preseason bracket. I could have done a half-assed job, and presented it to you, but you don't deserve that. Therefore, I chose not to do one.

I will try to give my take on the important games of the night (as determined by me). I will not publish a bracket until mid-December at earliest, but mid-January at latest.

Also - do any of you remember the old buildabracket.net website? I remember it being pretty cool, with the different font colors representing how confidently they could be projected into the bracket, the death days of the various teams (the point at which it required a major miracle to get back into the postseason talk), the phoenixes (previously dead teams that have resurrected). I'm thinking about starting this back up - I don't think I'm violating any laws, since I'm neither profiting, nor were the ideas copyrighted. In addition, I'd like to do it because I thought they had a good thing going, and then they quit on it. So be looking for that.

Anyways, moving on to tonights games:

Rider vs. St. Joseph's - By all rights, Rider should have made the tournament last year, but got knocked off by the other decent MAAC team. Now, the elder Thompson graduated, but if Rider can start off strong with a win, there may be a push for a two-bid MAAC. Sounds crazy, right?

American @ Oklahoma - The darling semi-unknown midmajor, American Eagles, begin the season off the right way with a top fifteen team. There should be plenty of scoring - Oklahoma is a bruising inside team, while American prefers to pick off 3s from the perimeter.

Marist @ Rutgers - Burning question: Will Rutgers do anything this year? I mean, they'll finish ahead of USF, to be sure, but this game should be a good indicator of whether either team will amount to anything. If this game is close, the answer is no.

Stanford @ Yale - Notable only in location. Maybe the RPI is getting to coaches?

Missouri St. @ Auburn - Two unknown quantities for this season that could find themselves on the bubble come March. Winner gets a boost.

Also, some predictions for the year:

1. Davidson will not be as good as expected. The loss of their PG is just too great, even for Stephan Curry.

2. UNC will win the ACC by at least two games.

3. At least one of the Big East Big Four (UConn, Louisville, Pitt, ND) will suffer a devastating injury, which will have a heavy impact on seeding (like Pitt of last year).

4. The SWAC will continue to be bad. Like, less than 10 DI Non-conference wins bad.

5. NJIT will become a story if it continues its losing streak.

6. The WCC, MVC, and A-10 will be the only non-Big 6 conferences to get multiple bids.

7. The Big East will have 10 teams in the tournament or on the bubble come March.

8. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will both have a powerhouse or two, and a terrible remainder of the conference.

9. Stephen F. Austin will go undefeated, and lose in the second round of the tourney.

10. #1 seeds - UNC, UConn, UCLA, Pitt.

11. National Champions - UConn - No justification, just blatant Big East homerism. (Also, I think that Hansborough will be unpleasantly shocked by Thabeet - really, when does Hansborough have to go up against a big guy).

12. Purdue will sneak up on everyone... again.

13. I will lose sleep and fall behind on work due to this blog (free point for me!).

13 seems like a reasonable number.
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