01/15 - Looking behind

Obviously, I didn't have a post Monday setting up this week's games, but whatever. I've decided that I'm just going to mention 5 major storylines or games from the past four days:


5. Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma St.
You can shout "rivalry game" at me all you want - if you are a tournament team, you should NOT be losing to Oklahoma this year. The Sooners have been pretty bad all year. So, if you're Oklahoma State, and you've got nothing going for you except the fact that your losses aren't too bad, and they haven't piled up too much... well, you just don't want to lose here.

4. Wisconsin over Northwestern
It seems like Northwestern, sitting at 12-4, is in decent shape for a tournament bid. But a deeper look shows that their best win is Notre Dame on a somewhat neutral court. They really need to beat one of the elite Big Ten teams to feel safe come selection Sunday. Out of the four (I'm still on the fence on Minnesota), this makes the second they've lost to at home. Not being able to win at home says bad things about their chances of winning those games on the road. Moreover, they don't get to play OSU at home - so their last chance at an elite at home is tomorrow.


3. Pitt defeats Connecticut; Clemson defeats UNC
There are a couple of reasons why these games are important. First, you have two teams that have been overrated throughout the season, finally getting their comeuppance. Clemson's beatdown showed that the previously exposed Tarheel flaws were actually somewhat serious, while yet another loss means that the best Huskie win is either William and Mary, Harvard, Notre Dame, or Seton Hall. On another level, who are these victors? This isn't the Pitt that fell pathetically to the Hoosiers, or the Tigers that needed a flubbed inbounds play to beat South Carolina State! Those two are better than I expected - I wonder how high their ceiling is.



2. Virginia over Georgia Tech; Va Tech over Miami (FL); NC State over Florida St.

What has caused a doomsday two-bid scenario in the Pac-10 is a cause for celebration in the ACC. The three bottom teams in league defeat three teams near the top - but since the three losing teams have some semblance of legitimacy, the ACC is in a situation where ALL teams - even the bumbling Wolfpack - still have a good shot at earning a bid.



1. Kentucky wallops Florida in Gainesville

This was Kentucky's best shot at losing for the rest of the year. Sure, they'll probably drop a game somewhere. But I doubt they'll lose more than one. Winning this one shows that they're in good shape for a one seed.



Other Notable Results:
Radford over Coastal Carolina
Ohio State over Purdue in W. Lafayette
Villanova defeats Louisville
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What a weekend!

I’ve been confined to bed over the past few days – so sue me for missing a few days.

Anyhow – could I look smarter for projecting Notre Dame as a 7? Could I look dumber for projecting Wake Forest as an eight? Here’s a three-day wrap-up.

Friday 2nd
South Carolina 85, Baylor 84:
Wait, wait, so you’re telling me that the Gamecocks, who look to be a middling team in the middling SEC, can waltz into Waco and come out with a win? Baylor still should have enough to snag a high seed with a decent Big XII season, with their wins over Arizona St. and Washington St. . But South Carolina’s win gives them a signature win heading into the conference schedule. More importantly, however, is what it does for the teams they’ve lost to. Clemson can now count that road win as a decent win, and we can now look at the College of Charleston, who could easily finish 18-2 in the Southern Conference, with two losses against Davidson – 26-4 overall. That should be enough to get them a decent look by the committee.

Arizona St. 90, Stanford 60:
How do you end a team’s perfect start to a season? Absolute demolition. This is what Stanford gets for not scheduling tough teams in the non-conference. I would not be surprised to see them miss the tournament altogether.

California 69, Arizona 55:
Well… hmm… It appears that Cal is indeed tournament quality. Let’s see how they fare against ASU, though.

Pacific 84, CSU-Northridge 78:
Yes, I will insist on putting this game up here. Knowing very little about this conference, I will foolhardily state that Pacific will win this conference.

Saturday 3rd
Pittsburgh 70, Georgetown 54:
It would figure that the one game that I really wanted to see, I would be too sick to get up and watch. I’m now 0-2 on major Big East games. But, Pitt won at G’town. G’town won at UConn. Pitt is the best team in the conference, and if you can’t see that, I can’t help you. Also, Rutgers and Florida St. are the only two teams this season to keep Pitt within 10.

Wake Forest 94, BYU 87:
And there goes the longest active home win streak – 53 games by the BYU Cougars. But, more than that, this game signals the ascendancy of the Demon Deacons. I think that, with the UNC loss to BC, Wake has an outside shot of winning the conference.

St. John’s 71, Notre Dame 65:
At the time, this game was on track to be the biggest upset of the weekend. The Irish came out sloppy, and not even the fire of Luke Harangody was enough to spark a run. It appears that an effective game plan has been made against the Irish, and until they figure out a way to counter that plan, they are going to continue to lose games. It is not outside of the realm of possibility for the Irish to miss the tournament.

Play that epitomizes the game: Harangody pulls down a tough rebound, down by 2 (or perhaps 4). Tory Jackson is right beside him, and Burrell is leaning over his back. Options are: 1) Pass to TJ or 2) Elbow Burrell in the face. You can guess which occurred.

Illinois St. 86, Creighton 64:

Well, I guess we know who the dominant team out of the Valley is. Question: If the Redbirds go 32-0, what seed will they get?

Washington 68, Washington St. 48:
Another game that shocked me in terms of score. I could have expected this score in Seattle, but I expected these two teams to be closer in terms of ability. The Cougars really don’t have any wins this season, and if they can’t beat Washington at home, don’t expect them to do any better than 9-9 in conference, and a trip to the NIT. Washington, on the other hand, looks surprisingly decent.

Minnesota 68, Ohio St. 59; Michigan St. 77, Northwestern 66:
More sorting out in the Big 10. I bet Ohio St really wants Lighty back about now. Also, every Ohio St. loss makes Notre Dame and Butler look worse. And every Northwestern loss calls Stanford's resume more into question.

Kansas 92, Tennessee 85:
My analysis? Kansas just refuses to lose at Phog. This will make Kansas look good for a while, and then they’ll lose on the road, and they’ll end up with mediocre seeding. Meanwhile, this takes Tennessee down a notch. I still think that doing well in the SEC will count for something, and they’ll end up in those top 16 spots.

Mississippi St. 82, Houston 65:
Houston really just doesn’t want a bid, do they? Every year, they seem to be in the talk, and yet they haven’t made the tournament since they got the autobid out of the Southwest Conference in 1992.

Sunday 4th
Boston College 85, North Carolina 78:
Well. Hrm. I don’t think anyone expected this. Certainly not at the hands of Boston College. I don’t really think this will affect UNC’s seed – they are still headed for a 1. But this could be the game that launches the Eagles into the tournament – as long as they don’t fall on their faces the rest of the season.

Michigan 74, Illinois 64
Michigan bounces back from their tough home loss against Purdue to beat the Illini. I have this feeling that the Big 10 will be like this all year – no consistency (well, other than poor, pathetic, soon to be 0-18 in conference IU). This, in turn will make seeding hard to predict.

Louisville 74, Kentucky 71
I was convinced that Kentucky would win this up until the final buzzer. But both teams just made SO MANY DUMB MISTAKES. Especially Kentucky – it was only an outrageously good shooting day that kept the Wildcats close.

Oregon St. 62, Southern Cal 58:
Congratulations to Oregon St. on their first conference win in 22 attempts. At the same time, you to drive a dagger into the Trojan’s tournament hopes – anytime you lose to a team expected to finish below 250 in RPI, you’ve been dealt a crushing blow. Also, you probably aren’t that good, anyways. But the Trojans did it last year, as did Nova and Pitt. But they’ve got a worse resume this year, and will probably need to garner wins against UCLA, ASU, and Cal.

California 81, Arizona St. 71:
With a win here, I was ready to declare the Sun Devils my projected Pac-10 champions. Now, I’m not sure. This could be a more competitive conference than I thought. This also stands to improve the standing of UNLV, Missouri, and Florida St.. That Rebel loss doesn’t look so bad, coming against a contender for the Pac-10 title. Missouri’s blow-out of the Bears lends them some more credence. And Florida St can use all the help they can get – unless they do better than expected in the ACC (read: finish above .500), they’ll be aburstin’ come March.

Stanford 76, Arizona 60:
I don’t know what to make of this game. Honestly, I’m convinced that neither of these teams will make it. I think it is quite probably that Arizona will finish with a better record against teams 1-50 than against teams 50-100 in RPI, while playing non-trivial amounts of both.

Top 25, Response Post, and Bracket to follow!

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30th Wrap-up, 31st games of import

So, I was hoping to skip a night, avoid paying for hotel internet, and pick it back up this afternoon at home. But I'm travelling with my brother, and he's come down with the flu, so I'll be ringing in the New Year in Lexington, hopefully while watching UNC's perfect season go down the drains - no offense Tarheel fans, but I'd like to think that you'll have some competition for the title this year.

Here's what happened last night:

Illinois 71, Purdue 67 OT
Neither of these teams looked very good, but at a packed Mackey Arena, Illinois showed that they were the better team. Despite having 16 fewer free throws, (27-11) and a phantom foul on Purdue’s last (real) shot of regulation, Illinois managed to pull out a game that was back and forth. One thing I noticed last night is that Purdue still looked young – making bad decisions and so forth. I think they’ll probably lose a game or two that they shouldn’t – which is why Sunday they’ll be moved out of the top four seed lines.

Arkansas 96, Oklahoma 88
I thought this might happen. Oklahoma was looking ahead to the tough Big XII schedule. Arkansas, who is pretty much dead in the water in the weak SEC, is looking to revenge last year’s loss in Norman. I still think Oklahoma will snag a #1 seed – they'll still do very well, and at this point, the other options are 3 Big East teams, or a 2/2 split between the Big East and ACC. However, Blake Griffin will have to step it up in-conference

Butler 72, UAB 68; Dayton 66, George Mason 62
UAB scheduled a tough team, Dayton scheduled a decent team. UAB lost, and still has nothing to show for it, except for the A+ in effort that they’ve received all year. Dayton wins, and lives to see another day.

Wright St. 71, Cleveland State 62; Southern Miss 78, Ole Miss 59; San Diego 64, Mississippi St 61 OT; Chattanooga 99, Niagara 84
Goodbye Cleveland St., Goodbye Ole Miss, Goodbye Mississippi St, Goodbye Niagara. Your outside shots of making the tournament? Gone. The Vikings may still be on the bubble in March, but I doubt they’ll make it in. Moreover, the two Mississippi losses make the SEC a weaker conference, negating the benefits of the Arkansas win. The Niagara loss just assures the MAAC of being a one-bid conference.

BYU 74, Tulsa 68
BYU is known as a team that can’t win on the road. They did here however – probably the reason they scheduled this game.

And tonight's games - a pretty good slate.

North Carolina @ Nevada
North Carolina, showing off their “Anyone, anywhere” philosophy. When I saw this game on their schedule, I mentally noted this as one of a few places the Tarheels might stumble. I still believe this. So far, UNC’s three closest games have been Notre Dame (the best team they’ve played), UPenn (the first game of the season), and UC-Santa Barbara (their only other road game). I expect that the Wolfpack faithful will prove a bit fiercer than those of UCSB.

Gonzaga @ Utah
Gonzaga is on a two game losing streak, but they are still one of the best teams around. However, a loss at a tough Utah team could be devastating to their high seed hopes. Utah, meanwhile, is playing for their lives here. They have almost no shot at winning the Mountain West Tournament, and their projected resume leaves a lot to be desired. A win here would be necessary to even get them back in the tournament discussion.

UNLV @ Louisville
UNLV rocked Arizona at home, could they do the same to Louisville on the road? Probably not, since UNLV enjoys one of the largest home court advantages. But you never know - a win here would be a boon to the Rebels.

Evansville @ Illinois St.
Another matchup of top teams from the Valley. Evansville showed that they are real against Drake. If the Aces can win here, they can relax for a bit.

Iowa @ Ohio St.; Michigan St. @ Minnesota; Northwestern @ Penn St.; Wisconsin @ Michigan
The Big 10 is probably one of the biggest question marks at this point. This might help clear the waters (or muddy them more).

EDIT: Bother. I was just looking at Arkansas (something I should have done substantially earlier), and I was shocked. They might be able to parley the Oklahoma win into a tournament bid. Also, Michigan St. - Minnesota was 2-2 after 6:30. Oh Big 10, how I hate you.
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Stop Slacking!

Major games from the weekend:
Saturday:

• Maryland defeats UNC. This is a huge lift for Maryland, and lessens the aura of dominance surrounding the Tar Heels. However, for all intents and purposes this loss did nothing to the Tar Heels, as they maintained their seeding in many seed lists (mine include).
• USC defeats UCLA. Much more important for USC than the UNC win was for Maryland, as USC only had one bad loss. This also hurt UCLA, as they already had one loss. This game allowed Tennessee to sneak in as a 1 seed.
• Speaking of the Vols, they have an astounding 7 wins against the top 50 RPI teams. Thats three more than any other team. However, they only beat the Buckeyes by 5. Is this a sign of weakness, or a sign that the Buckeyes are good?
• Fordham defeats Duquesne. Duquesne's whole tournament resume was based around the fact that they had no bad losses, and this game ruins that.
• Miami (FL) is a pretender. Miami (FL) is a pretender. (Repeat as necessary)
• Baylor picks up a road win. Baylor is for real, and they will make the tournament. This makes me happy, since this improves the Irish chances.
• Texas A&M is not good. They cannot win big games on the road. However, they are not bad. But unless they start winning some road games, they are done for. Same goes for the Irish.
• Kudos to Nova for picking up a road win in the Big East. Through Saturday, home teams in the Big East are 34-9, with only Rutgers having more than one home loss.
• Kudos also to Cincinnati for beating Pittsburgh. Cincinnati needs to continue knocking off top teams so they can overcome their pathetic non-con schedule.
• Drake beats Illinois St. in the battle for the Valley. Drake is now the master of the universe.
• BYU beats Utah in the only significant Saturday MWC action. This probably drops Utah out of the running for an at-large.
• Stanford beat Arizona St. Stanford is moving off of the bubble while ASU is moving closer to the bubble.
• California needs to win a game every so often, or they will miss the tournament.
• Davidson and Chattanooga squared off, and Davidson resoundingly showed that they will win their conference.
• Mississippi loses to Auburn? Inconcievable! This could shove Auburn back into NIT level.
• IUPUI followed up the tough loss at ORU to an unthinkable loss at Centenary. IUPUI went from one-bid stud to one-bid dud in the span of a week.
• Still searching for SWAC teams that want to win.

Sunday:

• Marquette got shellacked on the road by UConn. No one in the Big East is going to end up with a good road record, which will hurt seeding a lot. On the other hand, West Virginia's road win at USF will look very good, even if USF isn't the best team.
• Wake Forest beats Florida St. Enough said.

Monday:

• Syracuse ALMOST beat G'town, which would have pushed them into the tournament. But they didn't, and now they must suffer the consequences.

Big Matchups for Tonight and Tomorrow:

• Wake Forest @ Clemson: Big game for each. A win for the Deacons might push them into the tournament and send the Tigers tumbling out.
• Drake @ Creighton: Jeff from basketballpredictions.com says that Drake will falter once they're in the spotlight. Here they are, on the road, against one of the best teams in the conference. A win here will solidify their position, while a loss will leave many doubts for the Drake.
• Utah @ New Mexico: Another important game regarding the MWC. Quick story: yesterday a friend was going through conference-by-conference, asking me who could realistically win each one. We got to the MWC. I looked at it for a second, then told him "Everyone except Colorado St. and Wyoming"
• UNC @ Miami (FL): The Cane's can show me here that they are not pretenders.
• Virginia @ Florida St.: Bubblicious ACC game.
• Baylor @ Texas A&M: Road win will push Baylor above the bubble, but Texas A&M will be looking for someone to beat after two embarrassing losses sent them tumbling.
• Iowa St. @ Kansas: The Cyclones have been surprising solid at home, but so far do not have a stellar road win.
• UConn @ Cincinnati: The Bearcats are 8-3 at home with wins over Pittsburgh and Villanova and losses to Belmont and Bowling Green. Which team will show up?
• Akron @ Kent St.: For control of the MAC bEast.
• San Diego St. @ BYU: See previous comments regarding MWC.
• Bucknell @ Lafayette: For control of the Patriot League.

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