01/15 - Looking behind

Obviously, I didn't have a post Monday setting up this week's games, but whatever. I've decided that I'm just going to mention 5 major storylines or games from the past four days:


5. Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma St.
You can shout "rivalry game" at me all you want - if you are a tournament team, you should NOT be losing to Oklahoma this year. The Sooners have been pretty bad all year. So, if you're Oklahoma State, and you've got nothing going for you except the fact that your losses aren't too bad, and they haven't piled up too much... well, you just don't want to lose here.

4. Wisconsin over Northwestern
It seems like Northwestern, sitting at 12-4, is in decent shape for a tournament bid. But a deeper look shows that their best win is Notre Dame on a somewhat neutral court. They really need to beat one of the elite Big Ten teams to feel safe come selection Sunday. Out of the four (I'm still on the fence on Minnesota), this makes the second they've lost to at home. Not being able to win at home says bad things about their chances of winning those games on the road. Moreover, they don't get to play OSU at home - so their last chance at an elite at home is tomorrow.


3. Pitt defeats Connecticut; Clemson defeats UNC
There are a couple of reasons why these games are important. First, you have two teams that have been overrated throughout the season, finally getting their comeuppance. Clemson's beatdown showed that the previously exposed Tarheel flaws were actually somewhat serious, while yet another loss means that the best Huskie win is either William and Mary, Harvard, Notre Dame, or Seton Hall. On another level, who are these victors? This isn't the Pitt that fell pathetically to the Hoosiers, or the Tigers that needed a flubbed inbounds play to beat South Carolina State! Those two are better than I expected - I wonder how high their ceiling is.



2. Virginia over Georgia Tech; Va Tech over Miami (FL); NC State over Florida St.

What has caused a doomsday two-bid scenario in the Pac-10 is a cause for celebration in the ACC. The three bottom teams in league defeat three teams near the top - but since the three losing teams have some semblance of legitimacy, the ACC is in a situation where ALL teams - even the bumbling Wolfpack - still have a good shot at earning a bid.



1. Kentucky wallops Florida in Gainesville

This was Kentucky's best shot at losing for the rest of the year. Sure, they'll probably drop a game somewhere. But I doubt they'll lose more than one. Winning this one shows that they're in good shape for a one seed.



Other Notable Results:
Radford over Coastal Carolina
Ohio State over Purdue in W. Lafayette
Villanova defeats Louisville
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January 6th Wrap-up, January 7th Lookout

Bradley 56, Illinois St. 52; Northern Iowa 69, Creighton 66:
Two major, major upsets in the Valley. Illinois St was fighting for a bid on the ticket that they could go undefeated – that can’t happen now. Don’t be surprised to see a 3-4 loss Illinois St. missing the tournament all together. Creighton, on the other hand, had looked somewhat legit (minus those two embarrassing losses), so to lose to Northern Iowa AT HOME is just incredible. Mark my words – the Valley will be a one-bid this year.

Arkansas 67, Texas 61:
Well. A middling team in the SEC has taken it to the Big XII. Again. That’s Middling SEC teams 3, Big XII teams 0. More important, however, are the ramifications for Arkansas. Remember, SEC scheduling is such that they only have to play Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and SC once each. They should have an easy time coasting to a tournament bid. Well, unless they get upset by Bama or Georgia…

Connecticut 61, West Virginia 55:
UConn came back from their home loss, and won on the road. West Virginia failed to defend their top Pomeroy Ranking. On any given night in the Big East… I’m looking forward to the 24th.

Michigan St. 67, Ohio St. 58; Penn St 67, Purdue 64:
I kind of thought this would be the case. I don’t think Ohio St can really even compete any more. Meanwhile, it looks like Indiana is going to provide the only pushover game in the Big 10.
Dayton 45, Miami (OH) 40:
Bah. What a pathetic score. I’m not sure, but I think Miami played a slowdown game, and it almost worked. But why are you slowing things down against a team that isn’t much better than you?

Utah 91, LSU 61
Yep yep, I’ll just leave this here…

January 7th
Gonzaga @ Tennessee (9:00, ESPN2):
Rematch from a neutral-site game earlier in the year. I fully expect Gonzaga to lose this end of the duel. Which would be their 5th straight loss. Yea, that sucks.

Davidson @ Duke (7:00, ESPN):
Davidson, playing anyone anywhere – and losing doing it. Seriously, Davidson, you need to schedule a little bit better, like not playing Chatt… wait, they are in your conference. Crap, you just need a new conference.

College of Charleston @ North Carolina:
But the College of Charleston can come with you, Davidson. In the 9.5 year history of the Pomeroy ratings, CofC has never finished below 180. Anyways, we can start talking about the College of Charleston seriously if they come within 10 points in this game. How badly does UNC want to look ahead to Sunday? How worried are they about getting caught looking ahead again?
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First Post of the Day

So I’m trying to get that seed list and bracket out that I promised you all about two days ago. I’m starting this post about noon, and I think the bracket should be done around 4. However, I wanted to get this daily post out of the way first. Also, the Blogpoll Top 25 should be done around 3, and I’ll post my ballot with my comments. So it should be a good day. Also, I’d like to direct your attention over to the link area, which has been re-organized, and features a new addition: The Bracket Busters.

January 5th
Notre Dame 73, Georgetown 67:
Well, if anyone was wondering, there goes any Georgetown claim to supremacy. After two straight losses, they get to “relax” with home games against Providence and Syracuse. Life in the Big East is wonderful. Meanwhile, Notre Dame showed that St. John’s was (probably) an anomaly, and at worst this team is going to go 10-8 in-conference, sweeping the home slate (again) and winning at least one road game. What I saw, however, was even more key – Harangody FIGHTING FOR THE REBOUNDS. He hadn’t been doing that, and the “physical” Irish team was getting beat on the boards. To see him fighting up there against Greg Monroe – who is a whole head taller than him – gave me hope for the rest of the season.

Presbyterian 67, Liberty 66:
Remember a few weeks back, when I said this was a two horse race between Liberty and VMI? Forget it. This is VMI’s show, with the Flames now dropping to 1-3 in conference. Sure, Radford is 3-1, and maybe VMI’s last 2 wins have been by a combined 7 points, but you don’t understand how entertaining it would be for VMI to make the tournament, and force some top team to run with them.

Robert Morris 77, Mt. St. Mary’s 70
I must say, I’m befuddled. The Mount is supposed to be the only halfway decent in the NEC (according to the Pomeroy Ratings), and yet they are 0-3 in the conference. Not that the order of finish actually matters – the tourney champ still gets the Auto Bid to get stomped by a #1 seed.

Tonight, we’ve got a pretty good line-up.

Connecticut @ West Virginia (7:00, ESPNU):
West Virginia is now the #1 team in the Pomeroy ratings, and this is their first matchup against one of the top 8 in the Big East. Show me you deserve a high ranking – I think you deserve one after seeing you stomp all over the Buckeyes, but you need to atone for the losses to Kentucky and Davidson. Oh, the Huskies also want to win this game badly after being embarrassed at home.

Villanova @ Seton Hall (8:00, SNY/ESPN Full Court)
Another Big East game, but this time on the bubble side of things. Nova really hasn’t done anything this year, aside from beating URI. If they want to be team 8, 9 or 10 getting in from the Big East, then they need to take care of games like this one.

Miami (OH) @ Dayton:
Two more bubble teams collide. Two major Ohio mid-majors battling it out. Dayton needs this game to feel comfortable, because otherwise they have two losses to bubble teams. Miami, on the other hand, has 4 losses to excellent teams, but no wins that will garner attention on Selection Sunday. If they can avoid getting more than one loss in conference play, they may have an argument for an at-large. But, as my friend Chris says, “That’s why the MAC is always a one-bid. They ALWAYS beat up on each other”

Ohio St. @ Michigan St. (7:00, ESPN2):
I’d be more excited about this game if I hadn’t already tallied it as a win in the Spartan column. I’ll talk more about this game if it actually surprises me.

Purdue @ Penn St.:
This game has to potential to be a real shocker. The Nittany Lions knocked off Northwestern already, and then shocked everyone (me) by nearly taking it to Wisconsin at Kohl. This will be the most hostile crowd this season for the Boilermakers, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see Penn St. get a win here.

Texas @ Arkansas (9:00, ESPN2):
Heh. Heh. You know, this is funny, because Oklahoma went into Arkansas LAST week, and lost, so what if Texas were to do the same? Actually, this won’t happen, because of that fact.

LSU @ Utah:
Despite being a person who professes to harbor a small desire for the Tigers to do well, I feel like every year I’m too frustrated by those overrating Louisiana St. to even consider cheering for them. This mainly applies in football, but this year, I feel like they need a swift kick in the butt to put them in their place. Then I’ll start supporting them again. I think Utah can accomplish this, where ULL, Washington St, and Mcneese St. could not.
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28th Wrap, 29th Games of Import

Here's what happened last night:

Evansville 76, Drake 65:
Well, we now know that Evansville *should* challenge for the MVC crown. I know, I know yada yada they can't keep it up for the whole year. But thats what they said about Drake LAST year. However, the games at SIU and Drake could be interesting.

Florida St. 82, Western Kentucky 69:
Florida St. keeps their hopes alive. In fact, at this point, the Noles have a pretty good resume. But, as a wise blogger said last year, someone has to win the games, and someone has to lose the games, and the rest of the season looks not at all promising for Florida St . Meanwhile, Western Kentucky's slim at-large hopes have faded.

Stanford 111, Texas Tech 66: What a blow-out! Stanford is now 9-0! With... 0 good wins. Sheesh. Schedule some better OOC teams, especially when your conference has two teams that are going to drag you down.

Iowa St. 71, Houston 67: A second bad loss for Houston probably puts them out of reach of the tournament. Also, how much do the Cyclones wish they had that Hawaii win now? 9-3 and only one bad loss would have been manageable entering the conference schedule.

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69: Indiana is bad. This is a very disappointing loss.

Finally! After a long hiatus, we have a day with several great games on tap.

Georgetown @ Connecticut: The game of the night – Georgetown begins a run of three difficult games, which will help determine whether they are deserving of the #1 spot in the Pomeroy Rankings (actually, UNC probably won’t hold that spot for a few more games, simply because they’ve been playing their back-ups so much). I really don’t have anything to say here, other than noting that it should be a great game, and we’ll evaluate these two tomorrow.

Cincinnati @ Memphis: If you just look at the names involved in this game, then you probably won’t think much of this game. But the fact of the matter is that Cincinnati and Memphis are not at all safe. Cincinnati has decent wins over UAB and UNLV, but they are still headed for a pretty bad conference record – besides the free wins over Depaul, Rutgers, and St. John’s, I wouldn’t count on anything. As for Memphis – while they haven’t had any bad losses, they haven’t had any decent wins either.

Temple @ Villanova: This game will determine whether Villanova had a good non-conference season or a bad one. With a win, they can be perceived as a team that beat everyone they were supposed to, and lost to the only elite team they played. With a loss, then Nova will be seen as underachievers. Temple would like this game very much. Two straight losses have made the Tennessee win a distant memory, and a 3-3 road mark isn’t going to wow anyone. A win over Villanova would right their ship, and put them in position to snag a tournament bid with a decent, upset-less conference run.

Davidson @ College of Charleston: Davidson has 9 days to sit and think about their blowout loss against Purdue. This isn’t a bad team, and they’ve got the win over West Virginia to prove it. However, this College of Charleston team is going to be the best chance of losing in-conference this year. Only one other SoCon team besides these two is in the top 200 – Western Carolina, who Davidson gets at home.

Portland St. @ Baylor: Portland St. might have a viable shot at a 12 seed if they can get a win here.

Boston @ Cornell: This game will probably help decide whether America East or Cornell is placed on the 16 seed line. That’s about the extent of why this game is important

Hopefully I'm run through all of the conferences over the next few days, but don't count on it. I'll be travelling the next few days, so I don't know what will happen. Hopefully I'll be able to make a post about the nine games I've identified as important during the time that I am away.

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