Its that time of year again

Yes, I know I've been a slacker. Duke and UCLA are already 2-0, and I've yet to make my first post of the year. Forgive me - I've had a stressful past few weeks.

Thus, despite my best intentions, I did not manage to get out a preseason bracket. I could have done a half-assed job, and presented it to you, but you don't deserve that. Therefore, I chose not to do one.

I will try to give my take on the important games of the night (as determined by me). I will not publish a bracket until mid-December at earliest, but mid-January at latest.

Also - do any of you remember the old buildabracket.net website? I remember it being pretty cool, with the different font colors representing how confidently they could be projected into the bracket, the death days of the various teams (the point at which it required a major miracle to get back into the postseason talk), the phoenixes (previously dead teams that have resurrected). I'm thinking about starting this back up - I don't think I'm violating any laws, since I'm neither profiting, nor were the ideas copyrighted. In addition, I'd like to do it because I thought they had a good thing going, and then they quit on it. So be looking for that.

Anyways, moving on to tonights games:

Rider vs. St. Joseph's - By all rights, Rider should have made the tournament last year, but got knocked off by the other decent MAAC team. Now, the elder Thompson graduated, but if Rider can start off strong with a win, there may be a push for a two-bid MAAC. Sounds crazy, right?

American @ Oklahoma - The darling semi-unknown midmajor, American Eagles, begin the season off the right way with a top fifteen team. There should be plenty of scoring - Oklahoma is a bruising inside team, while American prefers to pick off 3s from the perimeter.

Marist @ Rutgers - Burning question: Will Rutgers do anything this year? I mean, they'll finish ahead of USF, to be sure, but this game should be a good indicator of whether either team will amount to anything. If this game is close, the answer is no.

Stanford @ Yale - Notable only in location. Maybe the RPI is getting to coaches?

Missouri St. @ Auburn - Two unknown quantities for this season that could find themselves on the bubble come March. Winner gets a boost.

Also, some predictions for the year:

1. Davidson will not be as good as expected. The loss of their PG is just too great, even for Stephan Curry.

2. UNC will win the ACC by at least two games.

3. At least one of the Big East Big Four (UConn, Louisville, Pitt, ND) will suffer a devastating injury, which will have a heavy impact on seeding (like Pitt of last year).

4. The SWAC will continue to be bad. Like, less than 10 DI Non-conference wins bad.

5. NJIT will become a story if it continues its losing streak.

6. The WCC, MVC, and A-10 will be the only non-Big 6 conferences to get multiple bids.

7. The Big East will have 10 teams in the tournament or on the bubble come March.

8. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will both have a powerhouse or two, and a terrible remainder of the conference.

9. Stephen F. Austin will go undefeated, and lose in the second round of the tourney.

10. #1 seeds - UNC, UConn, UCLA, Pitt.

11. National Champions - UConn - No justification, just blatant Big East homerism. (Also, I think that Hansborough will be unpleasantly shocked by Thabeet - really, when does Hansborough have to go up against a big guy).

12. Purdue will sneak up on everyone... again.

13. I will lose sleep and fall behind on work due to this blog (free point for me!).

13 seems like a reasonable number.
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New Beginnings

Over this past year, I'll be talking through my thoughts about college basketball with a couple of my friends, although you rarely got to see what I was thinking. They, however, have decided to take it upon themselves to create their own blog, with a focus on basketball analysis. Starting after the Championship Game I will be joining them. My bracketology will remain over here, with the promise that everything that only pertains to bracketology (which teams are more deserving, as well as seed lists and brackets) will stay over here.

Here is a link to their website: ndirish2010.blogspot.com

I hope you will continue to read next year.
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So Basically, This Blog Is Done for the Year

I thought about posting previews for the tournament games... but I didn't.
I thought about posting thoughts about the games... but I didn't.

So I suppose I'll lay this to rest until late October.

And next year, I'll post more consistently, and more in-depth.
And I may try to post something AFTER Selection Sunday.
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Just looking over my projected bracket

I noticed that I posted the wrong.

I predicted two first round matchups:

Stanford-Cornell
Purdue-Baylor
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Full Disclosure

I fail again.
Out of 53 brackets this year over at the Bracket Matrix, I finished (according to the Parrish Rubric) 49th - ahead of James Worthy, Jim Colton, RPI Forecast, and Sports Projections.

Here's my Breakdown:
Teams Correct: 63
I missed Kentucky and St. Joe's (my 1st and 3rd teams out). I had in Arizona St. and Ohio St.

I was personally shocked that Arizona St. missed, but I suppose it was to be expected with their weak non-conference schedule and whatnot. However, I've heard a rumor that their RPI of 82 was the factor that kept them out. If so, then obviously the committee sees the actual RPI - something that I had been told was false. Furthermore, this would indicate that this committee took a big look at the RPI numbers - something that I would disagree with.

No complaints on Kentucky over Ohio St. - I was thinking about switching this, but I belived that the fact the Kentucky lost to Georgia in the SEC tourney would be enough keep them out. I suppose that this is a situation where I should have looked harder at the RPI.

Seeds Correct: 31
I got 11 1's, 2's, 3's correct. (missed on Xavier)
I got 6 15's and 16's correct. (I missed Portland St. and American)
Other than that:
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: 4
Drake/Clemson: 5
Southern Cal: 6
Oregon/Arkansas: 9 - I'm quite proud of these two, as I got much hate from people over my seeding for both of these.. only positive in my whole seed list.
Temple: 12
Winthrop/Oral Roberts: 13
Cornell, Boise St., CSU-Fullerton: 14

Seeds within 1 line: 46
Xavier - Me: 4, Them: 3
ND - Me: 4, Them: 5
WSU - Me: 5, Them: 4
West Virginia - Me: 5, Them: 6
Oklahoma - Me: 7, Them: 6
Purdue - Me: 7, Them: 6
Gonzaga - Me: 8, Them: 7
St. Mary's - Me: 11, Them: 10
South Alabama - Me: 11, Them: 10
San Diego - Me: 12, Them: 13
George Mason - Me: 13, Them: 12
Western Kentucky - Me: 13, Them: 12
Siena - Me: 14, Them: 13
Portland St. - Me: 15, Them: 16
American - Me: 16, Them: 15

This leaves 17 teams I missed badly on seeding.

Marquette: Me: 3, Them: 6 - I'm not quite sure why they dropped so low. In retrospect, I can see why Xavier should have been swapped with Marquette on the seed list, and possibly moving them below ND, but I maintain that Marquette has a better resume than Pitt.

Butler: Me: 5, Them: 7 - This one seems pretty clear to me why they were lower than expected. Throughout the year, people noticed that Butler had hardly any good wins. However, the popular consensus was that Butler would get a boost because it was evident that they had attempted to schedule good teams. Obviously, this was not the case.

Vanderbilt: Me: 6, Them: 4 - If I hadn't counted their loss their to Alabama so much, they might have been a 5. I don't know on this one - I think its possible that they got a gift. Other than West Virginia and Butler, I really don't see anyone above them on the seed list that I would have pushed them above.

Indiana: Me: 6, Them: 8 - They might have gotten hosed - however, looking back, I should have put Oklahoma ahead of them. This would have made Indiana a 7 (within one seed line) and made Oklahoma just right. I really should have gone through my seed list a second time.

Texas A&M: Me: 7, Them: 9 - I don't know. Maybe I just overrate Big XII teams.

Michigan St: Me: 7, Them: 5 - This one, I can see. I really screwed up on Michigan St - Undervaluing their good wins, overvaluing their bad losses.

Davidson: Me: 8, Them: 10 - See bit about Butler. The committee apparently doesn't care whether you tried to schedule hard, just if you did anything about it.

Arizona: Me: 8, Them: 10 - Behind Oregon? This I don't understand - Not the seeding, but the relative order.

Kansas St./Baylor: Me: 9, Them: 11 - Further evidence that I overrate Big XII teams. I'll need to remember this for next year. I think that there was no Big XII rep on the committee, so that may have been a factor.

Miami (FL): Me: 10, Them: 7 - I don't understand this one either. The Bracket Matrix average was 9, so it shows that I wasn't alone.

BYU: Me: 10, Them: 8
UNLV: Me: 11, Them: 8 - The committee thought more highly of the MWC than I thought

Mississippi St: Me: 10, Them: 8 - This one I really don't understand. Their best win was Arkansas, and they had losses against UGA and SIU. Perhaps Conference tourney losses don't hurt that much?

Villanova: Me: 10, Them: 12 - My Big East bias, possibly

Georgia: Me: 12, Them: 14 - I'm impressed here. I thought that the committee would be lazy, and merely sub Georgia in for another major conference team. Instead, they made up a full bracket, with Georgia in at a reasonable seed. Kudos to the committee.

Kent St: Me: 12, Them: 9 - I really don't understand this one. Kent St. has a very similar profile to Butler - if Butler had 3 losses to teams outside the top 200. I'll have to look at this one more closely.

So, in short:
1) The committee doesn't care if you tried to schedule well and failed (Butler and Davidson).
2) However, they do care if you didn't try to schedule well (Arizona St.)
3) If you are a Big 6 team without committee representation, prepare to be underseeded. (Big XII)
4) Sunday surprises will be accounted for properly. (Georgia)
5) I should back away from my seed list, and then come back to it. If a team doesn't feel right, get them out (Kentucky, Ohio St.)
6) Don't listen to what popular opinions say (only 19 bracketologists had Oregon in).

Final Note: I cannot confirm or deny the following. However, it appears that Joe Lunardi may have switched Villanova and Virginia Tech at 5:50 - AFTER ESPN got their copy of the brackets. This is supported by the fact that earlier in the afternoon, Nova was 3rd out, and VT was 2nd in. If this is true, this seems quite dishonest. If someone has evidence that this did or did not happen, I would appreciate it.
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Bracket - Just for Kicks - 10 Minutes

Teams moved to fulfill Bracket Requirements
UP: Villanova, USC, BYU
DOWN: Clemson, Baylor, Oregon


Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – American (Patriot)
9 – Arkansas (SEC)
8 - Arizona
Tampa, Florida
5 – Southern Cal
12 – Kent St. (MAC)
13 – Siena (MAAC)
4 - Connecticut
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Cornell (IVY)
11 – St. Mary’s
6 – West Virginia
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 - Purdue
10 - Baylor
15 – Maryland-Baltimore County (America East)
2 – Duke

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA (Pac-10)
16 – Northwestern St. (Southland)
9 – BYU
8 - Gonzaga
Denver, Colorado
5 – Drake (MVC)
12 – Temple (A-10)
13 – Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
4 – Notre Dame
Washington, D.C.
3 - Marquette
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Ohio St.
6 - Vanderbilt
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – Michigan St.
10 – Miami (FL)
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – North Carolina (ACC)
16 – Play-in (Mount St. Mary’s vs. Mississippi Valley St.)
9 – Kansas St.
8 – Arizona St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Butler (Horizon)
12 – Virginia Tech
13 – George Mason (CAA)
4 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
Washington, D.C.
3 - Louisville
14 – CSU-Fullerton (Big West)
11 – UNLV (MWC)
6 – Indiana
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Texas A&M
10 - Villanova
15 – Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
2 – Tennessee

Detroit Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Memphis (CUSA)
16 – Coppin St. (MEAC)
9 – Oregon
8 – Davidson (SoCon)
Tampa, Florida
5 – Washington St.
12 – UNLV (MWC)
13 – Oral Roberts (Summit)
4 – Xavier (A-10)
Omaha, Nebraska
3 – Wisconsin (Big 10)
14 – Boise St. (WAC)
11 – Illinois St.
6 - Clemson
Birmingham, Alabama
7 - Oklahoma
10 – Mississippi St.
15 – Portland St. (Big Sky)
2 – Georgetown

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20 minutes!!! FINAL SEED LIST

Bracket Project Guy - Take this one.
Georgia Won, so VT is out. As noted earlier, I swapped South Alabama and Illinois St.

1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas
2: Texas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, Ohio St., South Alabama, UNLV
12: Georgia, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, UT-Arlington, Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, Illinois St., St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU
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