Medium Recap

Maybe I didn't do so poorly after all... I still think Drexel should have gotten in over Purdue or ODU
Teams Correct: 62/65 (I had Arkansas as an 11 and Syracuse and BC out in my projection that did not make it to the to the web)
Wrong Teams In: Air Force, Missouri St., Drexel
Missed Teams Out: Purdue, Old Dominion, BC


Here's where I need some work
Seeds Correct: 13/65
1:OSU, Kansas
2: UCLA
3: TAMU
4:Maryland
5:VT
6:Duke
13:Holy Cross
14:ORU
15:Belmont
16:FAMU, Jackson St., Central Connecticut St.

Seeds Within 1 Line: 42/65

Seeds Within 2 Lines: 52/65
Major Seed Misses:
Marquette (5 too high)
Vanderbilt (5 too low)
Villanova (5 too high)
USC (4 too low)
Texas (4 too low)
Butler (4 too low)
Illinois (4 too high)
Winthrop (3 too high)
Arizona (3 too high)
Long Beach St. (3 too low)
BYU (3 too low)
Kentucky (3 too high)
George Washington (3 too low)
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Quick Recap

Obviously I didn't get to make a last post before the brackets came out, but I was completely wrong. Well, not completely. But I was wrong enough.

Maybe I'll do better next year.
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Projecting the Seeds 3/10

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, Kansas
2: Florida, UCLA, UNC, Pittsburgh
3: SIU, Texas A&M, Memphis, Marquette
4: Washington St., Maryland, Oregon, Villanova
5: Arizona, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Nevada
6: Virginia, Duke, Indiana, Air Force
7: Michigan St, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Louisville
8: Georgia Tech, Winthrop, Texas, Illinois
9: UNLV, Creighton, Butler, USC
10: Drexel, Stanford, Missouri St., Xavier
11: Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, BYU, Boston College
12: Rhode Island, VCU, Utah State, Davidson
13: Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Wright St., Penn
14: Akron, TAMU-CC, Albany, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., Niagara, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont
16: Weber St., Delaware St., Miss. Valley St., North Texas, C. Conn. St.
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Projecting the Seeds 3-7

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, UNC, Pittsburgh
3: Texas A&M, SIU, Memphis, Maryland
4: Marquette, Washington St., Kentucky, Arizona
5: Duke, Villanova, Air Force, Virginia
6: Oregon, Nevada, Indiana, Virginia Tech
7: Tennessee, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
8: Louisville, Winthrop, Texas, UNLV
9: Illinois, Creighton, Xavier, Stanford
10: Butler, Drexel, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech
11: USC, Missouri St., BYU, Clemson
12: Syracuse, VCU, Boston College, Davidson
13: Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Wright St., Penn
14: Toledo, Vermont, TAMU-CC, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., Niagara, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont
16: Weber St., Delaware St., Miss. Valley St., North Texas, C. Conn. St.

No, Nevada doesn't deserve the respect of a 3rd or 4th. They lost to the only top 50 team they played. Their SOS is 116. But I did take a really long look at them.
Thank you for your input on Kentucky, Duke, Air Force, Nevada, and Tennessee. I do not have the time right now to examine them, but I will be reviewing their cases more closely later tonight.
And, barring a miraculous increase in time, I will not be able to do a bracket Selection Sunday. I will be putting out my projected seeds on Sunday, however.
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Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, UNC, Pittsburgh
3: Texas A&M, SIU, Memphis, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Marquette, Washington St., Duke
5: Air Force, Arizona, Villanova, Virginia
6: Oregon, Nevada, Indiana, Virginia Tech
7: Tennessee, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
8: Louisville, Winthrop, Texas, UNLV
9: Illinois, Creighton, Xavier, Butler
10: Stanford, Drexel, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech
11: USC, Missouri St., BYU, Syracuse,
12: VCU, Boston College, Clemson, Florida St.
13: Davidson, Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Penn
14: Toledo, Vermont, TAMU-CC, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., Niagara, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont
16: Weber St., Delaware St., Arkansas St., Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St.
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Masking the teams

Without looking up the teams, tell me how you would rank them

Team A
Record - 21-9
Last 10 - 3-7
RPI - 34
Road - 6-5
Vs. Top 50 RPI - 6-8
Vs. Top 100 RPI - 9-8
SOS - 46
Non-Con SOS - 213
Top 25 Wins: None
Below 100 RPI Losses: #124

Team B
Record - 24-8
Last 10 - 9-1
RPI - 39
Road - 8-5
Vs. Top 50 RPI - 3-2
Vs. Top 100 RPI - 6-5
SOS - 90
Non-Con SOS - 31
Top 25 Wins: #17
Below 100 RPI Losses: #106, #301, #126

Team C
Record - 19-10
Last 10 - 5-5
RPI - 31
Road - 5-6
Vs. Top 50 RPI - 7-7
Vs. Top 100 RPI - 8-9
SOS - 11
Non-Con SOS - 50
Top 25 Wins: #10, #22
Below 100 RPI Losses: #218

Team D
Record - 20-10
Last 10 - 7-3
RPI - 47
Road - 2-8
Vs. Top 50 RPI - 4-6
Vs. Top 100 RPI - 8-8
SOS - 48
Non-Con SOS - 83
Top 25 Wins: #22, #23
Below 100 RPI Losses:#137, #178
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Projecting the Seeds - March 4

I have to be somewhere else later, so here are my seeds:
Please Note that this does not take into account the Niagara-Loyola(MD) game, the WKU-FAU game, the Gonzaga-San Diego game, or the Santa Clara-St. Mary's game

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, UNC, Pittsburgh
3: Texas A&M, SIU, Memphis, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Marquette, Washington St., Duke
5: Air Force, Arizona, Villanova, Virginia
6: Oregon, Nevada, Indiana, Virginia Tech
7: Tennessee, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
8: Louisville, Winthrop, Texas, UNLV
9: Illinois, Creighton, Xavier, Butler
10: Stanford, Drexel, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech
11: USC, Missouri St., BYU, Clemson
12: Syracuse, VCU, Boston College, Florida St.
13: Davidson, Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Penn
14: Toledo, Vermont, Western Kentucky, TAMU-CC
15: Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Niagara, Eastern Kentucky
16: Belmont, Weber St., Delaware St., Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St.

Last 4 Out: Old Dominion, Michigan, Purdue, Arkansas
Next 4 Out: Georgia, Washington, West Virginia, Alabama

Bids By Conference:
ACC: 9
Big East: 7
Pac 10: 6
Big 10: 5
Big 12: 4
SEC: 4
MVC: 3
MWC: 3
CAA: 2

Newcomers: W. Kentucky, Florida St., Toledo
Outgoing: S. Alabama, Old Dominion, Akron
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Predicting the Bracket - 3/3

San Jose

-- Sacramento
1 UCLA (Pac-10)
16 Mississippi Valley St. (SWAC)

8 Illinois
9 Butler (Horizon)

-- Columbus
5 Virginia
12 Syracuse

13 Davidson (Southern)
4 Kentucky

-- Buffalo
3 Maryland
14 Akron (MAC)

11 BYU
6 Indiana

-- New Orleans
7 Georgia Tech
10 Drexel (CAA)

15 Eastern Kentucky (OVC)
2 Kansas (Big 12)

East Rutherford

-- Lexington
1 Ohio St. (Big 10)
16 Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

8 Winthrop (Big South)
9 Creighton

-- Spokane
5 Arizona
12 Virginia Commonwealth

13 Holy Cross (Patriot)
4 Duke

-- Sacramento
3 Texas A&M
14 Oral Roberts (MCC)

11 Boston College
6 Tennessee

-- Columbus
7 Michigan St.
10 Missouri St.

15 Long Beach St. (Big West)
2 Pittsburgh

San Antonio

-- Buffalo
1 Georgetown (Big East)
16 Delaware St. (MEAC)

8 Texas
9 Stanford

-- Chicago
5 Air Force (MWC)
12 Florida St.

13 Penn (Ivy)
4 Washington St.

-- Winston-Salem
3 Memphis (CUSA)
14 Vermont (America East)

11 USC
6 Virginia Tech

-- Winston-Salem
7 Louisville
10 Vanderbilt

15 Marist (MAAC)
2 North Carolina (ACC)

St. Louis

-- Chicago
1 Wisconsin
16 Play-in (Weber St./C. Conn. St) (Big Sky/NEC)

8 UNLV
9 Xavier (A-10)

-- Spokane
5 Oregon
12 Old Dominion

13 Gonzaga (WCC)
4 Marquette

-- Lexington
3 Southern Illinois (MVC)
14 TAMU-CC (Southland)

11 Clemson
6 Nevada (WAC)

-- New Orleans
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas Tech

15 South Alabama (Sun Belt)
2 Florida (SEC)


Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA
2: Kansas, UNC, Florida, Pittsburgh
3: Texas A&M, SIU, Memphis, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Marquette, Washington St., Duke
5: Air Force, Arizona, Virginia, Oregon
6: Nevada, Virginia Tech, Indiana, Tennessee
7: Michigan St, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Louisville
8: Winthrop, Texas, UNLV, Illinois
9: Creighton, Xavier, Butler, Stanford
10: Drexel, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, USC
11: Missouri St., Syracuse, BYU, Boston College
12: Clemson, Old Dominion, VCU, Florida St.
13: Davidson, Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Penn
14: Akron, Vermont, TAMU-CC, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., South Alabama, Marist, Eastern Kentucky
16: Belmont, Weber St., Delaware St., Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St.

Last 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Georgia, Washington
Next 5 Out: West Virginia, Alabama, San Diego St., DePaul, Kansas St.

Bids By Conference:
ACC: 9
Big East: 6
Pac 10: 6
Big 10: 5
Big 12: 4
SEC: 4
MVC: 3
CAA: 3
MWC: 3

Newcomers: Clemson, Florida St.
Outgoing: West Virginia, Purdue
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Projecting the Seeds - March 2, 2007

I'm way too tired to differentiate between the predicted conference leaders, so they are staying the same.

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: UCLA, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown
2: Kansas, UNC, Pittsburgh, Florida
3: Texas A&M, Memphis, SIU, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Washington St., Marquette, Duke
5: Virginia, Air Force, Arizona, Oregon
6: Nevada, Virginia Tech, Michigan St., Indiana
7: Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville
8: Texas, Winthrop, Illinois, UNLV
9: Creighton, Xavier, Stanford, Butler
10: VCU, Vanderbilt, Drexel, USC
11: Syracuse, Texas Tech, Missouri St, BYU
12: Boston College, Old Dominion, Purdue, West Virginia
13: Davidson, Holy Cross, Penn, Gonzaga
14: TAMU-CC, Vermont, Oral Roberts, S. Alabama
15: Akron, Marist, ETSU, Long Beach St.
16: Weber St., Austin Peay, Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St., Delaware St.

Last 4 Out: Arkansas, Alabama, Kansas St., Depaul
Newcomers: West Virginia
Outgoing: App. St.
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Top 4 Seed Lines

This is taking longer than anticipated, but here are the top four seed lines

1: UCLA, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown
2: Kansas, UNC, Pittsburgh, Florida
3: Texas A&M, Memphis, SIU, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Washington St., Marquette, Duke

The toughest decision was between Georgetown and Kansas.
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New Seed will be posted later today, and I should have a new bracket out by tomorrow morning.
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Projected Seeds - March 1

Sorry, I was planning on making a bracket, but got carried away by and didn't get it out.

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: UCLA, Ohio St., Wisconsin, UNC
2: Kansas, Georgetown, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
3: SIU, Duke, Florida, Butler
4: Kentucky, Nevada, Washington St., Memphis
5: Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Marquette
6: Maryland, Boston College, BYU, Michigan St.
7: Air Force, UNLV, Arizona, Notre Dame
8: Oregon, Creighton, Virginia, Missouri St.
9: Louisville, Texas, Winthrop, USC
10: Texas Tech, Villanova, Xavier, VCU
11: Old Dominion, Drexel, Appalachian St., Tennessee
12: Stanford, Syracuse, Arkansas, Purdue
13: Davidson, Holy Cross, Penn, Gonzaga
14: TAMU-CC, Vermont, Oral Roberts, S. Alabama
15: Akron, Marist, ETSU, Long Beach St.
16: Weber St., Austin Peay, Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St., Delaware St.


Last 5 Out: Illinois, Alabama, West Virginia, Kansas St., DePaul
Next 5 Out: Georgia, Clemson, Michigan, San Diego St.,
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Arkansas vs. Alabama and Why Illinois isn't in my projection

As you can see, I chose Arkansas in my last post. Here is my reasoning.

Alabama’s wins against the top 50 in RPI are Kentucky and Xavier, while Arkansas has won AT Southern Illinois and against Alabama twice. The Razorback’s worst losses are at LSU (a tough home environment), at Auburn, and at South Carolina, while the Tide’s worst are two against Auburn and two against Arkansas. Both teams are equally pitiful on the road; Arkansas is 1-8 while Alabama is 2-7. Arkansas played a much tougher schedule, with their SOS ranked 13 by realtimeRPI.com, as opposed to the 47 SOS of Alabama.

Obviously the differences between the teams are minimal. What sets Arkansas above Alabama is that Arkansas won twice, and Arkansas' impressive win on the road against SIU.

Illinois is not in my projections because of their 6-9 mark against the RPI top 100. The only teams they beat that will be getting at-large berths are Michigan St. and IU, both at home. In all fairness, they probably should be in my last 10 out, as they beat Bradley on the road, but I didn't see that when making those last projections. However, they haven't done enough to warrant a tourney bid. A Big 10 tourney run that includes another win against MSU or IU or a win against Wisconsin or OSU might get them in.
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