As you can see, I chose Arkansas in my last post. Here is my reasoning.
Alabama’s wins against the top 50 in RPI are Kentucky and Xavier, while Arkansas has won AT Southern Illinois and against Alabama twice. The Razorback’s worst losses are at LSU (a tough home environment), at Auburn, and at South Carolina, while the Tide’s worst are two against Auburn and two against Arkansas. Both teams are equally pitiful on the road; Arkansas is 1-8 while Alabama is 2-7. Arkansas played a much tougher schedule, with their SOS ranked 13 by realtimeRPI.com, as opposed to the 47 SOS of Alabama.
Obviously the differences between the teams are minimal. What sets Arkansas above Alabama is that Arkansas won twice, and Arkansas' impressive win on the road against SIU.
Illinois is not in my projections because of their 6-9 mark against the RPI top 100. The only teams they beat that will be getting at-large berths are Michigan St. and IU, both at home. In all fairness, they probably should be in my last 10 out, as they beat Bradley on the road, but I didn't see that when making those last projections. However, they haven't done enough to warrant a tourney bid. A Big 10 tourney run that includes another win against MSU or IU or a win against Wisconsin or OSU might get them in.
Thursday, March 1, 2007
Arkansas vs. Alabama and Why Illinois isn't in my projection
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4 comments:
I appreciate the feedback and your response is fair. Illinois' resume flaw this year is their lack of a key win. But they've got tons of other selling points going for them - RPI around 30, SOS around 20, 9-6 record in conference, zero bad losses. On top of that, many of their significant players (McBride, Frazier, Carter, Randle, Smith) have missed portions of their season.
I just don't see how a team like Illinois (6-9 versus RPI top 100, but a very good profile otherwise) is out, while you have Arkansas (6-11 versus RPI top 100, 1-8 road record, RPI of 61, losing conference record) in the field.
By the way, Arkansas and Illinois beat SIU and Bradley, respectively, at neutral sites, not away.
Sorry about that... realtimeRPI.com has them listed as road games.
And to me, there isn't much difference between the two. The losing conference record of Arkansas isn't that bad when you realize they place in the deepest conference, and it is their signature win against SIU that puts them in.
It's all good. I don't mind people having them out, but my original beef was with them being 10+ spots out. I know Illinois has blown some golden chances, but think they are pretty safely in (11 seed-ish) as of today, and for certain with a win @Iowa on Sat.
I see you are from Indiana... so IU is only 7-9 against the top-100. The 10 spots (over UI) in the RPI is probably due to their "big wins" at home to Wisconsin and SIU, but they are a 5? Seems like quite a jump if you are excluding teams on the top-100 criteria.
Anyways, good stuff. I really like where you got the top mids (SIU, Memphis, Nevada, Winthrop and VCU) ranked.
You shouldn't use realtimerpi.com. Use either kenpom.com or collegerpi.com. realtimerpi.com incorrectly lists all neutral court games as either home or away games.
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