Response: UNLV

A reader commented! Until I get well-read to the point that I get overwhelmed with comments every post, I will try to respond to each and every comment. I may not satisfy you, but at least you'll know I'm listening.

I made a post following UNLV's victory over Louisville, stating that I felt that UNLV was a lock for the tournament, but only as a 10 or 11 seed. The comment expressed that they felt that UNLV was more in line for a 5-6 seed.

Last Year UNLV did this to get an 8:
Overall: 25-7
Conference: 12-4
Top 25: 2 wins - BYU x2
26-50: 0-1
51-100: 7-3
101+: 1 Loss - Air Force
SOS: 63

Two years ago, UNLV did this to get a 7:
Overall: 27-6
Conference: 12-4
Top 25: 3 wins - BYUx2, Nevada
26-50: 1-1 (Air Force)
51-100: 6-1
+101: 2 Losses - UCSB, Wyoming
SOS: 37

So what does this mean? Lets summarize UNLV's case. In my projections, I'm assuming that UNLV will sweep TCU, Colorado St, Wyoming, and Air Force. I also assume they will split with SDSU, Utah, BYU, and New Mexico - this seems fair to me, because UNLV is normally excellent at home, and kind of bad on the road, like much of the MWC.
(all RPI projections taken from RPIforecast.com)

Overall: 27-6
Conference: 12-4
Top 25 RPI wins: 0
26-50 Record: 5-4 (Wins: BYUx2, Louisville, SDSU, Utah; Losses: BYU, Cal, Utah, SDSU)
51-100 Record: 4-2
101+ Losses: 0
SOS: 80

The overall record and conference records are similar. Obviously, there are a great deal more wins in the 26-50 range, but 2 of these are a result of BYU moving from a top 25 team to a 26-50 team. Really, I don't think that UNLV has a much stronger resume at all. However, I think that my assertion that they would be as low as a 10 seed is also incorrect. 7-9 should be about where UNLV finishes out.