29th Wrap-up

Georgetown 74, Connecticut 63:
So, I'm out visiting relatives this week. Imagine my dismay when, of all times, they pick 7:00 for dinner. 7:00 - the one time that I pleaded they not schedule anything for. I dashed back to the hotel after dinner, and went to the bar, only to discover that the hotel doesn't get ESPN2. Major lack of planning here. *Winces* I'll get my taste of elite Big East basketball soon. In any case - for all you out there that doubted Hoya might (Ahem, CJ), here's your proof, in Hartford. I'm actually worried for my Irish now - no student section + no South Bend support (since it is a weeknight) = a quiet JACC = Georgetown headed for a victory.

Davidson 79, Charleston 75
Briefly considered ditching the family to attend this game. Wish I had. The hotel doesn't get the U either, and I was tired enough not to go searching for it. I spent the final 2 minutes of this game yelling at the computer screen to update faster, especially when Lovedale fouled out. Davidson should go undefeated in conference, but here's a question. Does the College of Charleston have a shot at making the tournament? They could make a similar argument to Davidson of last year (well, not undefeated, but only losses to Davidson is almost the same thing).

Memphis 60, Cincinnati 45
I talked about this yesterday. Memphis stays in the bubble hunt. Cincinnati still gasping for air. Note: if not for a last second free throw by Cincy, each team would have scored the same amount of points in the first and second half.

Santa Clara 83, Belmont 80
How cruel, for Santa Clara to defeat such a nice Belmont team. Belmont better be careful, or they may take Navy's spot on the 16 line. On a related note, how unlucky is Belmont? If you ignore the 14 point loss at Pitt, they have lost 4 games by a total of 8 points - 2 to Austin Peay, 1 to Jacksonville, 2 to Tennessee, and 3 here to Santa Clara. *Wince* I wouldn't want to be the team matched up against them in the first round.

Baylor 79, Portland St 66
Well... I'm sure you can find something positive about this loss. But Portland St. should probably just focus on not losing in the Big Sky.

CSU-Northridge defeats CSU-Fullerton
So, I'm not staying up just to see the final score of this game, which is 80-58 with 5 to go. Just know that a CSU-Northridge win @ CSU-Fullerton puts them firmly in the challenger spot.

Cornell 89, Boston U 59
America East, you are the weak link in the chain. For your crimes, you are relegated to the 16-seed line.

I'll try to wake up early and do previews for the next two days. No promises, though. I think you'll live if I don't.
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28th Wrap, 29th Games of Import

Here's what happened last night:

Evansville 76, Drake 65:
Well, we now know that Evansville *should* challenge for the MVC crown. I know, I know yada yada they can't keep it up for the whole year. But thats what they said about Drake LAST year. However, the games at SIU and Drake could be interesting.

Florida St. 82, Western Kentucky 69:
Florida St. keeps their hopes alive. In fact, at this point, the Noles have a pretty good resume. But, as a wise blogger said last year, someone has to win the games, and someone has to lose the games, and the rest of the season looks not at all promising for Florida St . Meanwhile, Western Kentucky's slim at-large hopes have faded.

Stanford 111, Texas Tech 66: What a blow-out! Stanford is now 9-0! With... 0 good wins. Sheesh. Schedule some better OOC teams, especially when your conference has two teams that are going to drag you down.

Iowa St. 71, Houston 67: A second bad loss for Houston probably puts them out of reach of the tournament. Also, how much do the Cyclones wish they had that Hawaii win now? 9-3 and only one bad loss would have been manageable entering the conference schedule.

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69: Indiana is bad. This is a very disappointing loss.

Finally! After a long hiatus, we have a day with several great games on tap.

Georgetown @ Connecticut: The game of the night – Georgetown begins a run of three difficult games, which will help determine whether they are deserving of the #1 spot in the Pomeroy Rankings (actually, UNC probably won’t hold that spot for a few more games, simply because they’ve been playing their back-ups so much). I really don’t have anything to say here, other than noting that it should be a great game, and we’ll evaluate these two tomorrow.

Cincinnati @ Memphis: If you just look at the names involved in this game, then you probably won’t think much of this game. But the fact of the matter is that Cincinnati and Memphis are not at all safe. Cincinnati has decent wins over UAB and UNLV, but they are still headed for a pretty bad conference record – besides the free wins over Depaul, Rutgers, and St. John’s, I wouldn’t count on anything. As for Memphis – while they haven’t had any bad losses, they haven’t had any decent wins either.

Temple @ Villanova: This game will determine whether Villanova had a good non-conference season or a bad one. With a win, they can be perceived as a team that beat everyone they were supposed to, and lost to the only elite team they played. With a loss, then Nova will be seen as underachievers. Temple would like this game very much. Two straight losses have made the Tennessee win a distant memory, and a 3-3 road mark isn’t going to wow anyone. A win over Villanova would right their ship, and put them in position to snag a tournament bid with a decent, upset-less conference run.

Davidson @ College of Charleston: Davidson has 9 days to sit and think about their blowout loss against Purdue. This isn’t a bad team, and they’ve got the win over West Virginia to prove it. However, this College of Charleston team is going to be the best chance of losing in-conference this year. Only one other SoCon team besides these two is in the top 200 – Western Carolina, who Davidson gets at home.

Portland St. @ Baylor: Portland St. might have a viable shot at a 12 seed if they can get a win here.

Boston @ Cornell: This game will probably help decide whether America East or Cornell is placed on the 16 seed line. That’s about the extent of why this game is important

Hopefully I'm run through all of the conferences over the next few days, but don't count on it. I'll be travelling the next few days, so I don't know what will happen. Hopefully I'll be able to make a post about the nine games I've identified as important during the time that I am away.

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One-Bids (part one)

Ivy – After having at least one decent team for years, the Ivy League is having a down year. Only Cornell seems to be having any flashes of decency, almost winning at St. Joe’s, and keeping it reasonable at Minnesota and Syracuse. But losing by 15 to IU? 11 to St. John’s? Big Red should win the conference easily, but expect nothing higher than a 15.

Patriot – While American was an early favorite to shock major conference teams, it just hasn’t happened, and they’ve been pounded by Oklahoma and Georgetown. Moreover, Navy has looked surprisingly solid, almost winning at Villanova. Lehigh has also been a bit of a surprise – ranked 206 in the Pomeroy Rankings. However, it should be noted that that has come against the 322nd schedule, so they may be a bit worse. I’m still going to call this a two horse race, with the winner garnering a 15-seed and a tournament beatdown.

Southern - I hear you out there. “But Bryce! If Davidson wins out, and loses in the conference championship, then surely the Southern Conference will be a two bid conference.” And so it would be. But Davidson won’t beat Duke, and they won’t have a big win on their record. Moreover, if they don't get the autobid, then they’ll have a bad loss. That’s why the SoCon is still a one bid conference. However, Davidson should have nothing to fear – the only team with a halfway decent chance of beating the Wildcats is the College of Charleston, and for the first time in forever, the conference tourney isn't in Charleston - its in Chattanooga.

Big South – There has been a changing of the guard in the Big South. UNC-Asheville is subpar minus Kenny George. High Point has fallen off their role of perennial runner-ups. And Winthrop, banner-waver of the conference, is a woeful 1-9, and ranked 301 in the Pomeroy rankings – a far cry from 06-07, when they ran the conference, and defeated Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament. So who does that leave? Liberty and VMI. Liberty is about 10 points away from an excellent 12-1 record. Instead, they are 9-4, with no shot of an at-large bid. VMI started out the year with that upset over Kentucky, and continue to play their up-tempo style of catch, shoot, and little defense. Expect one of these two to be playing in March.

NEC, MEAC, SWAC – Lets not kid ourselves. The representatives of these conferences are headed for 16 seeds. It will be whatever school decides to hang tough and win the conference tournament. I’m not even going to attempt to predict these. (Well, the NEC rep might make 15. If, like, the A-Sun, Big South, and Southland Champions all come from the bottom of the league.) (Thus I draw irate hate mail from Mt. St. Mary’s fans, despite their 0-2 start to conference play).

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