Darnit UConn, you're supposed to be bad!

Well, obviously UConn is going to show up here next week... So, what caused various movements in my seed list over the 9 days? (That is, what didn't I account for?)

Illinois (IN) beat Michigan St, beat Wisconsin at Kohl… what more could you ask for?
Louisville’s (IN) upset victory at Syracuse (Down 1) gave them the big win they needed to push up into the tournament, and the fact that it was on the road is the icing on top. That loss knocked Syracuse off the 1-line.
William & Mary (IN) was a change of opinion… I mean, 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, with wins at Wake Forest and Maryland… that’s pretty legit, in my opinion.
Richmond (Up 4) destroyed Temple and then went on the road and beat Rhode Island (OUT). The first is a good win, while the second is a decent win on the road. It also served as the final blow to Rhode Island’s fragile resume – 24-5 isn’t good enough when your best win is against Oklahoma St, and you’ve had several opportunities for better.
Tennessee (Up 3) impressed me in their loss at Kentucky, enough so that I decided that they will beat Kentucky when they come to Knoxville. Beat one one seed, you might be a fluke. Beat two one seeds, you’re the real deal. Obviously, if Tennessee loses to Kentucky, expect them to drop back down.
Purdue’s (Up 3) rise up the charts is due to two things. First, obviously they went out and beat Michigan St (Down 2) this past Saturday in East Lansing. Big wins are good, and this one means that I now have them tied for first in the conference, rather than in 3rd place. More importantly, however, they now have two road/neutral wins against top teams – and the committee like that. Michigan State, however, drops to only 3-4 against the RPI top 50, and as such cannot be considered to have an elite resume.
Northeastern (OUT) didn’t do anything to hurt themself. However, I decided that winning a conference that has no team above the 10 line is not in and of itself a good argument for inclusion, even if that conference seems to be on track for multiple bids. Expect this to be a big debate in the future.
Dayton (OUT) lost to SLU, which means I am now projecting them to finish 6th in the Atlantic 10. The A-10 is not quite strong enough to get 10 in. (Obviously, a change of heart from last week)
BYU (Down 4) is also a matter of changing opinions – I now think that their weak win total, and absence of strong wins will lead them to be seen as outside of the top tiers of teams.
Charlotte (Down 3), Temple (Down 2), and Xavier (Down 1) are a reaction to my overrating of the A-10 last week.
Texas (Down 2) lost to Oklahoma, then lost to Kansas. While I was expecting the former (since it was a classic trap game), I was not expecting the latter. This had a negative effect on the factors that I use to make my decisions.
Cornell (Down 1) and Northern Iowa (Down 1) were the result of weekend upsets, at UPenn and Bradley respectively.
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29th Wrap-up

Georgetown 74, Connecticut 63:
So, I'm out visiting relatives this week. Imagine my dismay when, of all times, they pick 7:00 for dinner. 7:00 - the one time that I pleaded they not schedule anything for. I dashed back to the hotel after dinner, and went to the bar, only to discover that the hotel doesn't get ESPN2. Major lack of planning here. *Winces* I'll get my taste of elite Big East basketball soon. In any case - for all you out there that doubted Hoya might (Ahem, CJ), here's your proof, in Hartford. I'm actually worried for my Irish now - no student section + no South Bend support (since it is a weeknight) = a quiet JACC = Georgetown headed for a victory.

Davidson 79, Charleston 75
Briefly considered ditching the family to attend this game. Wish I had. The hotel doesn't get the U either, and I was tired enough not to go searching for it. I spent the final 2 minutes of this game yelling at the computer screen to update faster, especially when Lovedale fouled out. Davidson should go undefeated in conference, but here's a question. Does the College of Charleston have a shot at making the tournament? They could make a similar argument to Davidson of last year (well, not undefeated, but only losses to Davidson is almost the same thing).

Memphis 60, Cincinnati 45
I talked about this yesterday. Memphis stays in the bubble hunt. Cincinnati still gasping for air. Note: if not for a last second free throw by Cincy, each team would have scored the same amount of points in the first and second half.

Santa Clara 83, Belmont 80
How cruel, for Santa Clara to defeat such a nice Belmont team. Belmont better be careful, or they may take Navy's spot on the 16 line. On a related note, how unlucky is Belmont? If you ignore the 14 point loss at Pitt, they have lost 4 games by a total of 8 points - 2 to Austin Peay, 1 to Jacksonville, 2 to Tennessee, and 3 here to Santa Clara. *Wince* I wouldn't want to be the team matched up against them in the first round.

Baylor 79, Portland St 66
Well... I'm sure you can find something positive about this loss. But Portland St. should probably just focus on not losing in the Big Sky.

CSU-Northridge defeats CSU-Fullerton
So, I'm not staying up just to see the final score of this game, which is 80-58 with 5 to go. Just know that a CSU-Northridge win @ CSU-Fullerton puts them firmly in the challenger spot.

Cornell 89, Boston U 59
America East, you are the weak link in the chain. For your crimes, you are relegated to the 16-seed line.

I'll try to wake up early and do previews for the next two days. No promises, though. I think you'll live if I don't.
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One-Bids (part one)

Ivy – After having at least one decent team for years, the Ivy League is having a down year. Only Cornell seems to be having any flashes of decency, almost winning at St. Joe’s, and keeping it reasonable at Minnesota and Syracuse. But losing by 15 to IU? 11 to St. John’s? Big Red should win the conference easily, but expect nothing higher than a 15.

Patriot – While American was an early favorite to shock major conference teams, it just hasn’t happened, and they’ve been pounded by Oklahoma and Georgetown. Moreover, Navy has looked surprisingly solid, almost winning at Villanova. Lehigh has also been a bit of a surprise – ranked 206 in the Pomeroy Rankings. However, it should be noted that that has come against the 322nd schedule, so they may be a bit worse. I’m still going to call this a two horse race, with the winner garnering a 15-seed and a tournament beatdown.

Southern - I hear you out there. “But Bryce! If Davidson wins out, and loses in the conference championship, then surely the Southern Conference will be a two bid conference.” And so it would be. But Davidson won’t beat Duke, and they won’t have a big win on their record. Moreover, if they don't get the autobid, then they’ll have a bad loss. That’s why the SoCon is still a one bid conference. However, Davidson should have nothing to fear – the only team with a halfway decent chance of beating the Wildcats is the College of Charleston, and for the first time in forever, the conference tourney isn't in Charleston - its in Chattanooga.

Big South – There has been a changing of the guard in the Big South. UNC-Asheville is subpar minus Kenny George. High Point has fallen off their role of perennial runner-ups. And Winthrop, banner-waver of the conference, is a woeful 1-9, and ranked 301 in the Pomeroy rankings – a far cry from 06-07, when they ran the conference, and defeated Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament. So who does that leave? Liberty and VMI. Liberty is about 10 points away from an excellent 12-1 record. Instead, they are 9-4, with no shot of an at-large bid. VMI started out the year with that upset over Kentucky, and continue to play their up-tempo style of catch, shoot, and little defense. Expect one of these two to be playing in March.

NEC, MEAC, SWAC – Lets not kid ourselves. The representatives of these conferences are headed for 16 seeds. It will be whatever school decides to hang tough and win the conference tournament. I’m not even going to attempt to predict these. (Well, the NEC rep might make 15. If, like, the A-Sun, Big South, and Southland Champions all come from the bottom of the league.) (Thus I draw irate hate mail from Mt. St. Mary’s fans, despite their 0-2 start to conference play).

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