Darnit UConn, you're supposed to be bad!

Well, obviously UConn is going to show up here next week... So, what caused various movements in my seed list over the 9 days? (That is, what didn't I account for?)

Illinois (IN) beat Michigan St, beat Wisconsin at Kohl… what more could you ask for?
Louisville’s (IN) upset victory at Syracuse (Down 1) gave them the big win they needed to push up into the tournament, and the fact that it was on the road is the icing on top. That loss knocked Syracuse off the 1-line.
William & Mary (IN) was a change of opinion… I mean, 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, with wins at Wake Forest and Maryland… that’s pretty legit, in my opinion.
Richmond (Up 4) destroyed Temple and then went on the road and beat Rhode Island (OUT). The first is a good win, while the second is a decent win on the road. It also served as the final blow to Rhode Island’s fragile resume – 24-5 isn’t good enough when your best win is against Oklahoma St, and you’ve had several opportunities for better.
Tennessee (Up 3) impressed me in their loss at Kentucky, enough so that I decided that they will beat Kentucky when they come to Knoxville. Beat one one seed, you might be a fluke. Beat two one seeds, you’re the real deal. Obviously, if Tennessee loses to Kentucky, expect them to drop back down.
Purdue’s (Up 3) rise up the charts is due to two things. First, obviously they went out and beat Michigan St (Down 2) this past Saturday in East Lansing. Big wins are good, and this one means that I now have them tied for first in the conference, rather than in 3rd place. More importantly, however, they now have two road/neutral wins against top teams – and the committee like that. Michigan State, however, drops to only 3-4 against the RPI top 50, and as such cannot be considered to have an elite resume.
Northeastern (OUT) didn’t do anything to hurt themself. However, I decided that winning a conference that has no team above the 10 line is not in and of itself a good argument for inclusion, even if that conference seems to be on track for multiple bids. Expect this to be a big debate in the future.
Dayton (OUT) lost to SLU, which means I am now projecting them to finish 6th in the Atlantic 10. The A-10 is not quite strong enough to get 10 in. (Obviously, a change of heart from last week)
BYU (Down 4) is also a matter of changing opinions – I now think that their weak win total, and absence of strong wins will lead them to be seen as outside of the top tiers of teams.
Charlotte (Down 3), Temple (Down 2), and Xavier (Down 1) are a reaction to my overrating of the A-10 last week.
Texas (Down 2) lost to Oklahoma, then lost to Kansas. While I was expecting the former (since it was a classic trap game), I was not expecting the latter. This had a negative effect on the factors that I use to make my decisions.
Cornell (Down 1) and Northern Iowa (Down 1) were the result of weekend upsets, at UPenn and Bradley respectively.
Read more!

28th Wrap, 29th Games of Import

Here's what happened last night:

Evansville 76, Drake 65:
Well, we now know that Evansville *should* challenge for the MVC crown. I know, I know yada yada they can't keep it up for the whole year. But thats what they said about Drake LAST year. However, the games at SIU and Drake could be interesting.

Florida St. 82, Western Kentucky 69:
Florida St. keeps their hopes alive. In fact, at this point, the Noles have a pretty good resume. But, as a wise blogger said last year, someone has to win the games, and someone has to lose the games, and the rest of the season looks not at all promising for Florida St . Meanwhile, Western Kentucky's slim at-large hopes have faded.

Stanford 111, Texas Tech 66: What a blow-out! Stanford is now 9-0! With... 0 good wins. Sheesh. Schedule some better OOC teams, especially when your conference has two teams that are going to drag you down.

Iowa St. 71, Houston 67: A second bad loss for Houston probably puts them out of reach of the tournament. Also, how much do the Cyclones wish they had that Hawaii win now? 9-3 and only one bad loss would have been manageable entering the conference schedule.

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69: Indiana is bad. This is a very disappointing loss.

Finally! After a long hiatus, we have a day with several great games on tap.

Georgetown @ Connecticut: The game of the night – Georgetown begins a run of three difficult games, which will help determine whether they are deserving of the #1 spot in the Pomeroy Rankings (actually, UNC probably won’t hold that spot for a few more games, simply because they’ve been playing their back-ups so much). I really don’t have anything to say here, other than noting that it should be a great game, and we’ll evaluate these two tomorrow.

Cincinnati @ Memphis: If you just look at the names involved in this game, then you probably won’t think much of this game. But the fact of the matter is that Cincinnati and Memphis are not at all safe. Cincinnati has decent wins over UAB and UNLV, but they are still headed for a pretty bad conference record – besides the free wins over Depaul, Rutgers, and St. John’s, I wouldn’t count on anything. As for Memphis – while they haven’t had any bad losses, they haven’t had any decent wins either.

Temple @ Villanova: This game will determine whether Villanova had a good non-conference season or a bad one. With a win, they can be perceived as a team that beat everyone they were supposed to, and lost to the only elite team they played. With a loss, then Nova will be seen as underachievers. Temple would like this game very much. Two straight losses have made the Tennessee win a distant memory, and a 3-3 road mark isn’t going to wow anyone. A win over Villanova would right their ship, and put them in position to snag a tournament bid with a decent, upset-less conference run.

Davidson @ College of Charleston: Davidson has 9 days to sit and think about their blowout loss against Purdue. This isn’t a bad team, and they’ve got the win over West Virginia to prove it. However, this College of Charleston team is going to be the best chance of losing in-conference this year. Only one other SoCon team besides these two is in the top 200 – Western Carolina, who Davidson gets at home.

Portland St. @ Baylor: Portland St. might have a viable shot at a 12 seed if they can get a win here.

Boston @ Cornell: This game will probably help decide whether America East or Cornell is placed on the 16 seed line. That’s about the extent of why this game is important

Hopefully I'm run through all of the conferences over the next few days, but don't count on it. I'll be travelling the next few days, so I don't know what will happen. Hopefully I'll be able to make a post about the nine games I've identified as important during the time that I am away.

Read more!