Darnit UConn, you're supposed to be bad!

Well, obviously UConn is going to show up here next week... So, what caused various movements in my seed list over the 9 days? (That is, what didn't I account for?)

Illinois (IN) beat Michigan St, beat Wisconsin at Kohl… what more could you ask for?
Louisville’s (IN) upset victory at Syracuse (Down 1) gave them the big win they needed to push up into the tournament, and the fact that it was on the road is the icing on top. That loss knocked Syracuse off the 1-line.
William & Mary (IN) was a change of opinion… I mean, 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, with wins at Wake Forest and Maryland… that’s pretty legit, in my opinion.
Richmond (Up 4) destroyed Temple and then went on the road and beat Rhode Island (OUT). The first is a good win, while the second is a decent win on the road. It also served as the final blow to Rhode Island’s fragile resume – 24-5 isn’t good enough when your best win is against Oklahoma St, and you’ve had several opportunities for better.
Tennessee (Up 3) impressed me in their loss at Kentucky, enough so that I decided that they will beat Kentucky when they come to Knoxville. Beat one one seed, you might be a fluke. Beat two one seeds, you’re the real deal. Obviously, if Tennessee loses to Kentucky, expect them to drop back down.
Purdue’s (Up 3) rise up the charts is due to two things. First, obviously they went out and beat Michigan St (Down 2) this past Saturday in East Lansing. Big wins are good, and this one means that I now have them tied for first in the conference, rather than in 3rd place. More importantly, however, they now have two road/neutral wins against top teams – and the committee like that. Michigan State, however, drops to only 3-4 against the RPI top 50, and as such cannot be considered to have an elite resume.
Northeastern (OUT) didn’t do anything to hurt themself. However, I decided that winning a conference that has no team above the 10 line is not in and of itself a good argument for inclusion, even if that conference seems to be on track for multiple bids. Expect this to be a big debate in the future.
Dayton (OUT) lost to SLU, which means I am now projecting them to finish 6th in the Atlantic 10. The A-10 is not quite strong enough to get 10 in. (Obviously, a change of heart from last week)
BYU (Down 4) is also a matter of changing opinions – I now think that their weak win total, and absence of strong wins will lead them to be seen as outside of the top tiers of teams.
Charlotte (Down 3), Temple (Down 2), and Xavier (Down 1) are a reaction to my overrating of the A-10 last week.
Texas (Down 2) lost to Oklahoma, then lost to Kansas. While I was expecting the former (since it was a classic trap game), I was not expecting the latter. This had a negative effect on the factors that I use to make my decisions.
Cornell (Down 1) and Northern Iowa (Down 1) were the result of weekend upsets, at UPenn and Bradley respectively.
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01/16 - The Weekend Ahead

So - there are two ways of doing this. I can list every game that slightly matters; or I can list the ones that REALLY matter.

Syracuse @ West Virginia - The winner of this game puts themselves in the driver's seat for a one seed.

Wisconsin @ Ohio St. - Wiscy has some great wins at the Kohl Center - but one on the road would go a long way in pushing them up the seed list.

Dayton @ Xavier - I doubt this one has even touched your radar, but Xavier, perennial A-10 powerhouse, is in critical condition. Consider this - their best win is Cincinnati. St. John's has a win against Cincinnati, and another against Temple, to boot. Point is - Xavier needs this badly.

Purdue @ Northwestern - As mentioned previously, Northwestern's last shot to get a home win against an elite team. If they don't pick this up, their odds of making the tournament become fairly long.

Cal @ Washington - For control of the Pac-10... whatever thats worth.

ALL ACC GAMES - See previous post - that league is a free-for-all right now
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Are you Listening Boeheim?

Contrary to what ESPN says, the Orange are not out.

This is how weak the bubble is - Syracuse still has a legit shot at making the tournament, because they have 2 marquee wins (G'town and Marquette) and only 1 bad loss (USF), defined by me as a loss to a team above 100 in the Colton Index

Of the teams on the bubble, only Oregon and Florida have only 1 bad loss (the rest have between 2 and 5). If you insist on calling the Arizona teams bubble teams, UA has 0, while ASU has 1.

Only Kentucky, St. Mary's, and Ohio St. have at least two marquee wins (Arizona and Arizona St. both have 3, if you insist again on calling them bubble teams).

Syracuse also has a better SOS: 33, better than any bubble teams not from the Pac-10 or Ohio St. (Texas Tech also has a better SOS, but I don't know if anyone else consider them a bubble team).

So tell me: If teams out there don't have more good wins, or fewer bad losses, or better schedules, then what do they have?

You may point to the previous snubs of the Orange(men) as evidence for them not getting in. The difference is this - the last committee didn't include a Big East Rep.

If you want to play along with ESPN and say that Syracuse has no chance, be my guest. Heck, even Boeheim has bought into the media attention. But I am of the opinion that they still have a good case for being in.
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