First Seed List of 2010

I'm tempted not to post this, since there are several glaring flaws. However, I've spent the majority of the past 4 hours on it, plus more time during the day on the Sunday. Its 6:30 AM - I think I'll just post it, and laugh at how ridiculous it it is later.

Disclaimer: This does not reflect where teams are now, but where I believe they will be at the end of this year.

1: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Texas (1)
2: Duke, G’town (2), Villanova (3), Wisconsin
3: West Virginia (4), Pittsburgh (5), Michigan St. (6), Kansas St. (7)
4: BYU, Ohio St. (8), Purdue (9), Wake Forest (10)
5: Temple, Mizzou (11), UNM (12), Clemson (13)
6: Tennessee (14), Vanderbilt (15), Baylor (16), Gonzaga
7: Georgia Tech (17), Florida (18), Florida St (19), UConn (20)
8: North Carolina (21), Maryland (22), UNLV (23), Butler
9: TAMU (24), Richmond (25), UNI, Mississippi St (26)
10: Utah St, Miami (27), Dayton (28), W&M
11: Oklahoma St (29), Marquette (30), Old Dominion(31) UAB
12: Virginia Tech (32), Ole Miss (33), Xavier (34), Cal

First Five Out: Cincinnati, Northeastern, St. Mary's, Washington, Seton Hall

By Conference:
ACC (9): Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida St, Maryland, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina
A-10 (5): Temple, Richmond, Dayton, Xavier
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Texas, Kansas St., Mizzou, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St
Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt, Connecticut, Marquette
Big 10 (4): Wisconsin, Michigan St, Purdue, Ohio St
CAA (2): William & Mary, Old Dominion
SEC (6): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi St, Ole Miss

Regional Top 4s
Northeast:
1: Texas
2: Duke
3: West Virginia
4: Purdue

Midwest:
1: Kentucky
2: Georgetown
3: Kansas St.
4: Wake Forest

South:
1: Kansas
2: Villanova
3: Michigan St.
4: Ohio St.

West:
1: Syracuse
2: Wisconsin
3: Pittsburgh
4: BYU
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01/16 - The Weekend Ahead

So - there are two ways of doing this. I can list every game that slightly matters; or I can list the ones that REALLY matter.

Syracuse @ West Virginia - The winner of this game puts themselves in the driver's seat for a one seed.

Wisconsin @ Ohio St. - Wiscy has some great wins at the Kohl Center - but one on the road would go a long way in pushing them up the seed list.

Dayton @ Xavier - I doubt this one has even touched your radar, but Xavier, perennial A-10 powerhouse, is in critical condition. Consider this - their best win is Cincinnati. St. John's has a win against Cincinnati, and another against Temple, to boot. Point is - Xavier needs this badly.

Purdue @ Northwestern - As mentioned previously, Northwestern's last shot to get a home win against an elite team. If they don't pick this up, their odds of making the tournament become fairly long.

Cal @ Washington - For control of the Pac-10... whatever thats worth.

ALL ACC GAMES - See previous post - that league is a free-for-all right now
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01/15 - Looking behind

Obviously, I didn't have a post Monday setting up this week's games, but whatever. I've decided that I'm just going to mention 5 major storylines or games from the past four days:


5. Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma St.
You can shout "rivalry game" at me all you want - if you are a tournament team, you should NOT be losing to Oklahoma this year. The Sooners have been pretty bad all year. So, if you're Oklahoma State, and you've got nothing going for you except the fact that your losses aren't too bad, and they haven't piled up too much... well, you just don't want to lose here.

4. Wisconsin over Northwestern
It seems like Northwestern, sitting at 12-4, is in decent shape for a tournament bid. But a deeper look shows that their best win is Notre Dame on a somewhat neutral court. They really need to beat one of the elite Big Ten teams to feel safe come selection Sunday. Out of the four (I'm still on the fence on Minnesota), this makes the second they've lost to at home. Not being able to win at home says bad things about their chances of winning those games on the road. Moreover, they don't get to play OSU at home - so their last chance at an elite at home is tomorrow.


3. Pitt defeats Connecticut; Clemson defeats UNC
There are a couple of reasons why these games are important. First, you have two teams that have been overrated throughout the season, finally getting their comeuppance. Clemson's beatdown showed that the previously exposed Tarheel flaws were actually somewhat serious, while yet another loss means that the best Huskie win is either William and Mary, Harvard, Notre Dame, or Seton Hall. On another level, who are these victors? This isn't the Pitt that fell pathetically to the Hoosiers, or the Tigers that needed a flubbed inbounds play to beat South Carolina State! Those two are better than I expected - I wonder how high their ceiling is.



2. Virginia over Georgia Tech; Va Tech over Miami (FL); NC State over Florida St.

What has caused a doomsday two-bid scenario in the Pac-10 is a cause for celebration in the ACC. The three bottom teams in league defeat three teams near the top - but since the three losing teams have some semblance of legitimacy, the ACC is in a situation where ALL teams - even the bumbling Wolfpack - still have a good shot at earning a bid.



1. Kentucky wallops Florida in Gainesville

This was Kentucky's best shot at losing for the rest of the year. Sure, they'll probably drop a game somewhere. But I doubt they'll lose more than one. Winning this one shows that they're in good shape for a one seed.



Other Notable Results:
Radford over Coastal Carolina
Ohio State over Purdue in W. Lafayette
Villanova defeats Louisville
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2010 means... time to start again?

I suppose I'm a little slow getting to the game this year. I mean, its already the conference season. The year is already about 1/3 over. Any potential readers that I gained last year are long gone. So what am I doing here?

To be honest, I was not planning on restarting this site. Despite my 65/65 effort of last year, the amount of time spent working on this site had an adverse effect on my school work. I had overcommitted myself, and needed to get rid of something. Moreover, I had been able to watch so few games last year, that I was having to rely almost entirely on statistics to inform my decisions. Again, what am I doing here?

Despite my resolution to get away from college basketball, I couldn't. When ESPN did their 24 hours of basketball, I found myself watching UCLA fall to CSU-Fullerton, and then watching the St. Mary's game. I fell asleep at the television for the Northern Colorado game. As the season progressed, I found myself watching more and more games. Over the Christmas holiday, I began to wonder how likely my beloved Irish were to make the tournament (unlikely). I began to scrutinize the cases of the various teams. I became hooked again. With the amount of time I was putting in for my personal knowledge, the time doing spent doing analysis would not add that much more time.



So how will this work? Sunday will be the day for the new seed lists - probably after the Sunday games are over, but earlier if I feel that they won't have a major impact. I'll mention the surprise or big games. If I have time, I'll talk about the hardest seeding decisions I had to make that day. Monday I will list the projected impact games for the next Monday through Friday period. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, I'm not sure how much time I'll have, but will be more focused on individual teams rather than the big picture. The blog may or may not get updated those days. Friday will be a review of the past week, and a preview of the weekend ahead. Saturday will depend on whether I'm busy on that day or not.

Additionally, some of my friends and I have begun to make plans for a combined college basketball analysis site. We still haven't worked out the details, so I'll let you know how that goes.
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Selection Show Live Blog

6:41 - But only 297 points - same as last year.

6:38 - 65/65! 65/65!

6:30 - Syracuse or Illinois as the 3? Also, SMC is out - Gonzaga hasn't shown up yet.

6:21 - Memphis in the west? Also, I would have swapped Washington and Purdue. Also, Cal was not held accountable for 150+ losses. Also, I didn't mention, but Siena as a 9 shocked me. As did Utah as a 5.

6:17 - ARIZONA!

6:01 - I was scared that they were going to commercial break before showing us all the #1s. 3 BIG EAST. Also, Joe Lunardi conspiracy theory dispelled?

5:56 - Calipari is stupid. You aren't getting a one. And you aren't fooling anyone by saying "who me? Complain?"

5:48 - Here we go. I made my bracket over on the NCAA website - I had to swap Clemson and UCLA, and Minnesota and Marquette. By the way, Arizona is in. I meant in.
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FINAL Seed List

1: North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt, Connecticut
2: Michigan St, Memphis, Oklahoma, Duke
3: Villanova, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois
4: Syracuse, Florida St, Wake Forest, Purdue
5: Xavier, Washington, Arizona St, Texas
6: West Virginia, Clemson, UCLA, Gonzaga
7: Ohio St, Butler, BYU, Minnesota
8: Oklahoma St, Marquette, Tennessee, Utah
9: Michigan, Texas A&M, California, LSU
10: Arizona, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Boston College
11: Maryland, Siena, Dayton, Utah St.
12: Temple, Cleveland St, Mississippi St, Western Kentucky
13: Northern Iowa, Virginia Commonwealth, North Dakota St, Portland St.
14: Akron, Radford, Chattanooga, Binghamton
15: Morgan St, Stephen F. Austin, Cal State - Northridge, American
16: E. Tennessee St, Robert Morris, Cornell, Morehead St, Alabama St.

First Four Out: Penn St, Northwestern, Baylor, Creighton
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I'm back for the big finish

After a month long hiatus, I'm back with a liveblog of my Selection Sunday. I will actually post a bracket.

4:41 - As I type up the post, Texas starts to slide. A little... no, they stay on the 5 line.

4:24 - Fine, Boston College and Southern Cal also on the 10 line. (Almost forgot about USC again) Since overall seed only matters for the top 16, and I did the bottom 5 (+2) lines the other day, I just have to insert Mississippi St. in.

4:19 - Arizona and Wisconsin on the 10 line. Hear me Joe?? ARIZONA ON THE 10 LINE.

4:18 - Check that, losses make a difference if teams are close. Screw you, Utah St.

4:16 - Fine, losses does make a slight difference. LSU on the 9 line.

4:13 - BC is not, neither is Maryland. Nor Wisconsin. Which means Cal is. So last spot on the 9 line goes to Arizona or LSU.

4:11 - So is Texas A&M.

4:07 - Michigan is on the 9 line

4:04 - Back to the 9 line.

4:03 - Crap, finally remembered lunch. Also, Arizona has a better resume this year than last.

3:54 - Teams that go 5-11 in conference don't get at-larges. So MY last conflict is Dayton vs. Penn St. Which I announced to my friend 5 minutes wasn't a conflict, because Dayton was so much better. Yea, looking again, Dayton is going to beat out Penn St. Time to finish seeding.

3:50 - Northwestern is out, because they didn't schedule anyone. Creighton is out because they suck AND didn't schedule anyone. Last 12 games is not a reason to put a mid-major in.

3:48 - I revisited Arizona. I'm confident that they will be in over Wisconsin. End of that discussion.

3:45 - Oops, I forgot Southern Cal. So thats 1 spot left for the five mentioned.

3:40 - In reality, I have 3 spots for 6 teams - Creighton, Penn St, Northwestern, Maryland, Dayton, Baylor. Okay, you're right, Maryland is in - few bad losses with a decent scheduling job.

3:36 - So Lunardi says Minnesota is a last 4 in. So I'm going to take a look at them in a bit. I just reconfirmed that SMC, Auburn, VT, UNLV, SDSU are all out. Therefore, I am down to 13 teams for 10 spots.

3:28 - Utah takes that last spot. I'm going to go the bubble teams now. Out of the 33 teams remaining, 23 are auto bids. So the last 10 spots are going to one of 18 teams.

3:27.5 - Narrowed to Utah vs. Texas A&M
3:27 - If you can't remember, the teams in the running for the last 8 seed - Utah, BC, TAMU, Cal, LSU.

3:24 - Marquette is on the 8 line, and since the lost by 12 on a neutral court to Tennessee, who is in the discussion, Tennessee is ALSO on the 8 line. First SEC team - 8.

3:21 - Oklahoma St. is on the 8 line. Yep. The same Cowboys who were a bubble team just a bit ago.

3:17 - The clock in the SEC championship game has been at 9 seconds for too long. It should be at 5. Arizona and Michigan are the same team, and neither will be wearing white.

3:14 - Onto the 8 line. Teams that will be looked at: A&M, Cal, Marquette, BC, LSU, Oklahoma St, Tennessee, Utah, Arizona, Michigan

3:09 - I'm taking Minnesota. I just talked my friend into giving Minnesota yellow jerseys for the tourney.

3:07 - So is BYU. The final spot is on the 7 line is going to Minnesota, Cal, or Texas A&M

3:01 - Butler and Ohio St. are on the 7 line.

2:54 - 6 line - West Virginia, Gonzaga, UCLA, Clemson. My friend knocked some sense into me with respect to Clemson. 27 point win over Duke, win at Illinois, 7-4 Road record.

2:53 - UCLA, Ohio St, West Virginia, Minnesota, Gonzaga are vying for the 6 line.

2:43 - #20 - Washington, because they won the Pac-10

2:40 - #18 - Xavier, #19 - Arizona St

2:37 - #17 - Texas. The other ones in consideration for the 5 line - ASU, Gonzaga, XU, Washington, Minnesota

2:23 - We just played "Guess how many top 100 games Penn St. and Northwestern scheduled out of conference" Answer: 2. Penn St. lost to URI and Temple, Northwestern beat FSU and lost at Butler.

2:16 - Texas just has too many questionable losses. #15 - Wake Forest #16 - Purdue. Wake was the easy one.

2:11 - Gonzaga and Arizona St are gone because they don't have any big wins, while the other 4 have 2.

2:09 - Here are the candidates for the last two spots in the top 16: Purdue, ASU, Xavier, Wake, Gonzaga, Texas

2:05 - #13 Syracuse, #14 - Florida St

2:03 - #10 - Kansas #11 - Mizzou #12 Illinois

1:57 - Nova is the only thing I'm sure of on the 3 line. Lunardi's bracket has not changed since midnight (conspiracy theory tracking here).

1:50 - Just looked at the committee members. Syracuse = Florida St. Nova is definitely above Illinois

1:44 - Teams in consideration for 3s - Mizzou, Kansas, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Florida St, Nova, Illinois, Wake Forest. My friend - "Syracuse has more wins than anyone in this conversation... except for... oh wait, pretty much everyone"

1:42 - #5 - Michigan St, #6 - Memphis #7 - Oklahoma #8 - Duke. Easier then the 1 seed discussion.

1:34 - Order of 1 seeds: UNC, L'ville, Pitt, UConn. Friend shocked by Michigan State's 13 wins against the top 50. Talk about 2 seeds.

1:30 - I tried to spark discussion about UNC only have 5 top 50 wins. It failed when I looked at the 35 point win basically at Michigan St.

1:25: Long discussion of UConn vs. Memphis. The non-cons decided it: RPI top 100 in NonCon - UConn = 6-0, Memphis = 7-3. UConn gets it.

1:20 - Others in the discussion: UConn, Michigan St, North Carolina, Pitt, Memphis. Check that, Memphis is not a one seed, since their best win is TENNESSEE. Also, South Carolina just got discarded from the bubble pool, once we realized that they have 0 top 50 RPI wins. Florida follows with only 1.

1:17, 5 seconds - Louisville is a one seed. No discussion (well, some, but they are pretty obvious).

1:17 - Sitting in front of the SEC Championship, with lots of dead trees in my lap. Friend with me to provide argument. First order of business - one seed confirmation.
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