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I promise another seed list will be coming out soon (either today or tomorrow). I have created it, but it is saved to a computer that I cannot access the internet from. I hope to also respond to the comment about why I do my brackets as if the season ended today sometime within the week.
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Bracket

Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – Long Island/Brown (NEC/IVY)
9 – Dayton
8 – Arizona St.
Omaha, Nebraska
5 – Clemson
12 – UNLV
13 – South Alabama (Sun Belt)
4 – Marquette
Anaheim, California
3 – UCLA
14 – Georgia Southern (SoCon)
11 – UCSB (Big West)
6 – Baylor
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Wisconsin
10 – Creighton
15 – ETSU (Atlantic Sun)
2 – North Carolina

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – Washington St. (Pac-10)
16 – Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
9 – Massachusetts
8 – Nebraska
Tampa, Florida
5 – St Mary’s (WCC)
12 – Boston College
13 – Holy Cross (Patriot)
4 – West Virginia
Birmingham, Alabama
3 – Mississippi
14 – New Mexico St. (WAC)
11 – Syracuse
6 – Sam Houston St. (Southland)
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – BYU (MWC)
10 – Indiana
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas

North Carolina Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 - Memphis (C-USA)
16 – Morgan St. (MEAC)
9 – Virginia
8 – Ohio St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Georgetown
12 – George Mason (CAA)
13 – USC
4 – Texas A&M
Birmingham, Alabama
3 – Tennessee (SEC)
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Minnesota
6 – Arizona
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Rhode Island (A-10)
10 – Notre Dame
15 – UMBC (America East)
2 – Duke (ACC)

Detroit Regional
Washington, D.C.
1 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
16 – Alabama St. (SWAC)
9 – Stanford
8 – Xavier
Denver, Colorado
5 – Miami (FL)
12 – Kansas St.
13 – Miami (OH) (MAC)
4 – Butler (Horizon)
Tampa, Florida
3 – Vanderbilt
14 – Siena (MAAC)
11 – California
6 – Drake (MVC)
Washington, D.C.
7 – Providence
10 – Oklahoma
15 – IUPUI (Summit)
2 – Michigan St. (Big 10)
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Seed List

Bracket, thoughts on Saturday will be coming tomorrow, after I finish Christmas shopping and wrapping. Here is a seed list, much changed from the last one. Please note that I did not make a mistake: Neither Gonzaga nor Oregon is in this one.

1: Memphis, Pittsburgh, Washington St., Texas
2: Kansas, Duke, Michigan St., North Carolina
3: Tennessee, UCLA, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
4: Marquette, Butler, Texas A&M, West Virginia
5: Georgetown, St. Mary’s, Miami (FL), Baylor
6: Clemson, Sam Houston St., Drake, Arizona
7: Rhode Island, Wisconsin, BYU, Xavier
8: Arizona St., Providence, Ohio St., Nebraska
9: Virginia, Dayton, Oklahoma, Massachusetts
10: Indiana, Stanford, Creighton, UCSB
11: California, Boston College, Notre Dame, Minnesota
12: USC, UNLV, Kansas St., Syracuse
13: Miami (OH), George Mason, S. Alabama, Holy Cross
14: Winthrop, Siena, Georgia Southern, IUPUI
15: New Mexico St., UMBC, Morgan St., Northern Arizona, ETSU
16: ETSU, Long Island, Brown, Austin Peay, Alabama St.

Breakdown By Conference:
7: Big East, Pac-10
6: Big XII, ACC
5: Big 10
4: A-10
3: SEC
2: MWC, MVC
New Teams In: Syracuse, Kansas St., Oklahoma, USC, Virginia, Nebraska, Arizona St., Providence, Brown, Austin Peay, S. Alabama, New Mexico St., Morgan St.
Old Teams Out: Oregon, Connecticut, Florida, Texas-Arlington, Arkansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, Valparaiso, Cornell, Murray St., N. Texas, Nevada, Hampton
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Sorry UT-A

Every time I've talked about the seedings, I've mentioned that I thought it was very possible that the Southland Conference would get two bids to the tournament. I will now say that it will not happen. For the Southland Conference to get two bids, Texas-Arlington and Sam Houston St. both needed to stay undefeated in games not against each other. With Texas-Arlington's loss in OT this evening against TCU, this scenario came to and end. If SHSU goes undefeated the rest of the year, they should get a top 9 bid. There will not, however, be two bids to the Southland Conference this year.
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Seed List

I'm not doing a bracket, even though I have it mostly set up, because I do not have enough time to resolve a problem around 11/12/13. However, the changes in my seed list (which reflects more time spent considering various teams) should give enough for you.

1: Texas, Duke, Washington St., Kansas
2: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Michigan St.
3: Marquette, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh, Miami (FL)
4: Indiana, St. Mary’s, Rhode Island, Tennessee
5: Clemson, Mississippi, Georgetown, Butler
6: Baylor, West Virginia, Dayton, Sam Houston St.
7: Drake, Texas A&M, Creighton, Valparaiso
8: Stanford, Villanova, Gonzaga, UC-Santa Barbara
9: Wisconsin, Holy Cross, Texas-Arlington, Arizona
10: Oregon, Brigham Young, Xavier, UNLV
11: Connecticut, Minnesota, Arkansas, California
12: Notre Dame, Boston College, UMass, Ohio St.
13: Florida, George Mason, Georgia Southern, Miami (OH)
14: North Texas, Siena, IUPUI, Winthrop
15: Hampton, Nevada, Murray St., East Tennessee St.
16: Cornell, Long Island, Northern Arizona, UMBC, Alabama St.

Last Four In: Boston College, UMass, Ohio St., Florida
Last Four Out: Syracuse, Louisville, Florida St., Purdue

Dropped out: Providence, Virginia, Houston, Louisville, Florida St., S. Alabama, Boise St., Brown, Tennessee-Martin, Wagner
Added: Notre Dame, California, Florida, Ohio St., UMass, North Texas, Nevada, Cornell, Murray St., Long Island

Breakdown by Conference:

7: Big East
6: Pac-10
5: SEC, Big 10, ACC
4: Big 12, A-10
2: WCC, Horizon, Southland, MWC, MVC
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Finals Study Break

First off, I would like to respond to the comments from my last post.
UMass is beginning to put together a strong tournament resume. Wins on the road against Boston College and Syracuse will look attractive to the selection committee - if those teams do well. Unfortunately, the losses to IUPUI and Northern Iowa hurt, especially since UNI is performing well below expectations. I believe that to make the tournament UMass must finish in the top three in their conference. They must win their next four games (Vandy is currently 2nd in RPI, and a loss there will not hurt), and they cannot lose a conference game to anyone not name Rhode Island, Xavier, Duquesne, or Dayton. A win at Vanderbilt will give UMass a little more leeway, but not much.

That second home non-conference lost hurt Boston College. Unless they can beat Kansas, BC's only standout non-conference win will be their home win against Rhode Island. If they were playing in almost any other conference, they would be in good shape. Instead, they play in the ACC, where Ken Pomeroy's statistics are currently projecting them to go 8-8. At 18-11, with only one good nonconference win, Boston College will be sweating on Selection Sunday. Without examining other potential bubble teams more closely, I can't tell whether BC would be in or not. My guess is that they would be left out.

Florida St. is hard to judge right now. Their two big wins (Minnesota and Florida) have come against teams that spent the rest of their non-conference schedule beating up on lesser teams. How those two do in their conference schedule will have a major impact on Florida St. A loss this Saturday to Butler will probably not hurt the Seminoles, but it will be a major lost opportunity. To feel any degree of safety in their tournament hopes, I would agree that Florida St. must win this weekend. In fact, they should win the rest of the non-conference games as well. A loss in any other game (except perhaps Providence) will be a third bad loss, and with the brutal ACC schedule ahead will probably be enough to keep them out of the tournament.

Staying within the ACC, but moving past the comments, the Hurricanes have set themselves up for a bid on the bubble. They've beaten everyone so far, and they scheduled a bunch of moderately difficult teams who they have good chance at success against. I would not be at all surprised to see Miami entering the ACC schedule undefeated, though they have to get past Mississippi St. on the road tonight. As long as Miami then has a winning conference record, I believe they will make the tournament. They will not be a 4 seed like they were in my previous bracket.

I'm excited for the Georgetown-Memphis matchup a week from Saturday, because this will be the first time that Georgetown has played anyone of note. I've been loathe to give them a good seed so far for this reason, and if they can win this game they will get major points. If not, the Selection Committee will have very little to reward them for in their non-conference schedule, and Georgetown may get a lower seed than they deserve.

The Southland Conference could possibly get two teams into the tournament this year. I believe this will happen if both Sam Houston St. and Texas-Arlington finish with only one loss (to each other), and then meet in the conference final. Each team would have one decent win (Sam Houston over Texas Tech, Arlington over Oklahoma St. and Wichita St. on the road), and I believe that such a scenario would make them both tournament-worthy (probably in the 8-11 seed range). However, I think that if this were to happen, the school who lost in the conference final would probably find themselves as the most deserving team left out.

I've procrastinated long enough. Back to studying for finals.
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Doh

Of course, as soon as I make a wild and outrageous statement (namely that St. Mary's should definitely be a 2 seed), they go off and lose, to Southern Illinois no less. It was the Gaels first road game, and definitely makes them suspect. Except for Texas and Gonzaga, the Gaels will need to win the remainder of their games to have a realistic shot at the tournament.
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Bracket on Crack

No seeding changes from yesterday besides what was necessary to make it work. A friend who looked at my list believes that I am on some illicit drug, but as I said last night, I'm trying to put very little emphasis on who is supposed to be good and more emphasis on who has done something this year. Please let me know if there is something wrong with my bracket (in terms of rules, not my seedings). Feel free to disagree with any seedings (other than Texas, Duke, St. Mary's, and Alabama St.).

Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII 1)
16 – Play-in (Wagner, Alabama St.)
9 – Creighton (MVC 2)
8 – Indiana (Big 10 2)
Birmingham, Alabama
5 – Butler (Horizon 1)
12 – Louisville (Big East 7)
13 – IUPUI
4 – Miami (FL) (ACC 3)
Denver, Colorado
3 – Oregon (Pac-10 3)
14 – George Mason
11 – Holy Cross
6 – Gonzaga (WCC 2)
Little Rock, Arkansas
7 – Georgetown (Big East 3)
10 – Georgia Southern
15 – Boise St.
2 – Memphis (CUSA 1)

Arizona Regional
Omaha, Nebraska
1 – Washington St. (Pac-10 1)
16 –Tennessee-Martin
9 – Valpo (Horizon 2)
8 – West Virginia (Big East 4)
Birmingham, Alabama
5 – Rhode Island (A-10 2)
12 – Virginia (ACC 8)
13 – Miami (OH)
4 – Michigan St. (Big 10 1)
Tampa, Florida
3 – Arkansas (SEC 1)
14 – Siena
11 – Houston (CUSA 2)
6 – Boston College (ACC 4)
Anaheim, California
7 – Baylor (Big XII 3)
10 – Villanova (Big East 5)
15 – Northern Arizona
2 – St. Mary’s (WCC 1)

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – Duke (ACC 1)
16 – East Tennessee St.
9 – Drake (MVC 1)
8 – Stanford (Pac-10 4)
Washington, D.C.
5 – Pittsburgh (Big East 2)
12 – BYU (MWC 2)
13 – Florida St. (ACC 7)
4 – Tennessee (SEC 1)
Anaheim, California
3 – UCLA (Pac 10 2)
14 – Winthrop
11 – Connecticut (Big East 6)
6 – Dayton (A-10 3)
Denver, Colorado
7 – Texas-Arlington (Southland 1)
10 – Minnesota (Big 10 3)
15 – Brown
2 – Kansas (Big XII 2)

Detroit Regional
Omaha, Nebraska
1 – Marquette (Big East 1)
16 – Maryland-Baltimore County
9 – Arizona (Pac-10 5)
8 – UC Santa Barbara
Tampa, Florida
5 – Clemson (ACC 4)
12 – UNLV (MWC 1)
13 – South Alabama
4 – Vanderbilt (SEC 2)
Washington, DC
3 – Xavier (A-10 1)
14 – Providence (Big East 8)
11 – Wisconsin (Big 10 4)
6 – Mississippi (SEC 3)
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Texas A&M (Big XII 4)
10 – Sam Houston St. (Southland 2)
15 - Hampton
2 – North Carolina (ACC 2)
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Seed List

Alright, I'm just going to release a Seed List right now, and hopefully by midnight I'll be able to produce a working bracket. This seed list isn't going to be anything definite - I'm still of the opinion that there is not nearly enough data to create a bracket at this point. However, I am going to attempt one. Feel free to criticize. However, three points I will not budge on - Texas as the 1 overall seed, St. Mary's (CA) as a 2 seed, and Alabama St. in the play-in game. This bracket, because of the scarcity of games played is mostly a hodgepodge of intuition, Ken Pomeroy's statistics, and record. One thing that I tried not to allow bias my thinking is the "name" recognition. I will not have a last 5 in/out, since I did not have nearly the level of attention that I will on Selection Sunday.
Without further ado:
1: Texas (Big XII), Washington St. (PAC-10), Duke (ACC), Marquette (Big East)
2: North Carolina, Kansas, Memphis (CUSA), St. Mary's (WCC)
3: UCLA, Oregon, Arkansas (SEC), Xavier (A-10)
4: Vanderbilt, Michigan St. (Big 10), Miami (FL), Tennessee
5: Butler (Horizon), Rhode Island, Clemson, Pittsburgh
6: Mississippi, Baylor, Gonzaga, Georgetown
7: West Virginia, Texas-Arlington (Southland), Dayton, Texas A&M
8: Boston College, Indiana, Stanford, UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
9: Arizona, Drake (MVC), Valpo, Creighton
10: Minnesota, Villanova, Sam Houston St., Georgia Southern (Southern)
11: Connecticut, Holy Cross (Patriot), Houston, Wisconsin
12: Florida St., Louisville, UNLV (Mountain West), BYU
13: Providence, Virginia, Miami (OH) (MAC), IUPUI (Summit)
14: Winthrop (Big South), George Mason (CAA), Siena (MAAC), South Alabama (Sun Belt)
15: Northern Arizona (Big Sky), Boise St. (WAC), Brown (Ivy), Hampton (MEAC)
16: UMBC (AE), East Tennessee St.(A-Sun), Tennessee-Martin (OVC), Wagner (NEC), Alabama St. (SWAC)
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Pac-10: 5
Big XII: 4
Big 10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
West Coast: 2
Southland: 2
Mountain West: 2
Conference USA: 2
Horizon: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
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Winter Break is Coming Soon

After beating Team Beasley (Kansas St.) in a neutral court game, Notre Dame finally has their significant non-conference game... right? Not if you look at RPI, which, though flawed, will be part of the evidence put before the selection committee come March. Although it will change once we arrive at the conference slate, right now 4-2 Long Island, who has no win better than Hartford, is ranked higher than Kansas State. We still have no wins against teams ranked in the top 100 in RPI. We should finish our non-conference slate 10-2 - according to Ken Pomeroy's (a leader in college basketball statistics), we have a 94% chance of winning those last four games.

Following those game we square off against West Virginia at home. This should give us a great opportunity to start our conference season off with a huge win. There is just one problem - The game is January 3rd. Students aren't allowed to move back onto campus until January 12th. Therefore, unless a whole lot of students live close and plan on driving to the game, it might as well be played on a neutral court. With home-court advantage factored in (and, given some observational evidence from thebracketboard.com, home-court advantage does seem to be real), we are only supposed to have a 14% chance to win. Without the Leprechaun Legion there to support our team, we will lucky to come away with this win. Those of you out there that support the Irish Basketball - Go to this game, and the game against Connecticut on the 5th. While you're there, cheer and cheer loudly.
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Reindeer Roast

I went to the game against Eastern Michigan last night, and was greatly surprised by the final score. It felt like Notre Dame cruised the whole game, and yet the final score was only 76-65. Part of the problem seems to be a tendency to shoot for the home run - rushing in for a spectacular dunk or a spectular jump shot or 3-pointer. Many times when someone is trying to whip a pass under the basket to Harangody or others the pass is errant or is intercepted. Also of concern is that Notre Dame once again let up off the gas before the end of the game. I don't know what is going on, but Brey needs to keep the team mentally focused on the game for 40 minutes.

Harangody and Macalerny have impressed me so far. Harangody has become a dominating presence inside on offense, although he needs to step up his defensive game. Eastern Michigan's top scorer last night, Justin Dobbins, spent most of the game coming inside, backing into Luke, and shooting an accurate turnaround jumper. The game was close until the last few minutes of the first half, mostly due to Luke's inability to stop Dobbins. Macalerny has shown no ill effects from his suspension last year. He's hitting many of the shots he takes, and has almost single-handedly established the perimeter threat.

Next week - Kansas St. on Wednesday. If we play as we have been, we will lose this game. If we stay focused for 40 minutes, we have a shot.

I wil not be publishing a bracket this weekend, as there is not sufficient data to warrant one.

I will not be
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Hands in the Window

The Leprechaun Legion was out in full force tonight, as the Fighting Irish rolled to an easy victory. The 94-63 outcome was never in doubt. Due to the quality of the opponent, I really did not see much worthy of comment in the Irish performance. I was, however, happy to see that the Irish did not have a second-half letdown like they had in the previous three games.

I will (hopefully) be posting a bracket this weekend, although it is quite possible for me to decide that not enough data has been collected and postpone it until the next weekend.
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Victory?

I finally made it to the fifth game of Notre Dame's season, and my fears were confirmed. Although Notre Dame did win the game easily (87-75), it seemed like the players didn't care much for the game. At one point they were cruising, and led by as much as 26 points. Once they built up the lead they started playing sloppy, missing easy shots and letting Youngstown St. steal the ball away. If YSU had been a better opponent, they could have easily come back and won the game.

This seems to be a trend, with disappointing losses to Georgia Tech and Baylor, both games that we should have won. If we continue to ease up when we take the lead, we will continue to lose games against good teams and have a horrible season. Monday we take on Colgate. I will be in attendance.
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The Terrors of the RPI

Today I watched Jim Colton's slideshow on the Flaws of the RPI. I highly recommend it for anyone who is interested on the accuracy of the RPI. It is rather lengthy (Part 1, just on the RPI, is 21:30), but informative at the same time. Futhermore, in Part 2, explaining the Colton Index, I am completely sold.

To give a quick overview of the Colton Index:

Playing bottom feeders can kill your RPI. A team playing 1, 2, and 330 at home has the same SOS as someone playing 110, 111, 112 on the road. A tournament quality team would go 1-2 against the first schedule, and 3-0 against the 2nd schedule. Therefore, the 2nd team is rewarded for not playing weak opponents by appearing better than the 1st team.

The Colton Index fixes this. He ranks the teams by W-L record, and then uses probability to establish how many games a tournament quality team should win. Teams that win more than that number are rewarded, teams that win fewer are penalized. Since this changes all the rankings, the process is repeated until the numbers stabilize.

Obviously I haven't done as good of a job as the presentation I linked to. But I now believe that the RPI is flawed, and I will not be using it as much this year.

The Colton Index will also now be linked on the side.
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07-08 Season

The new college basketball season kicks off soon (November 5, which is two weeks from yesterday), and the first games are... Richmond/Maine and Memphis/Tennessee-Martin. Perhaps we'll get an interesting game the next day out of Richmond and Memphis. November 10th could mark the first truly interesting game of the year, when Air Force and VMI should be playing (as long as they beat their throwaway opponents). The first match-up between high-quality teams should be the semifinal round of the Coaches Vs. Cancer tournament, when Connecticut and Kentucky will probably face off on November 14. Don't discount the TAMU/ORU matchup - Oral Roberts has been somewhat pesky in recent years.

Along with the new season, I am in a new location this year. I am now at Notre Dame, and will be attending every home game. I also will have much better access to the internet, and as such I do not believe that I will have the unfortunate experience of an inadequate final bracket like last year. I will not produce my first bracket until December 1st (or shortly thereafter), so don't look for it. I will however be occasionally giving my thoughts on Notre Dame basketball, their opponents, and how I think the college basketball season is going. Look for those to be coming out.
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Medium Recap

Maybe I didn't do so poorly after all... I still think Drexel should have gotten in over Purdue or ODU
Teams Correct: 62/65 (I had Arkansas as an 11 and Syracuse and BC out in my projection that did not make it to the to the web)
Wrong Teams In: Air Force, Missouri St., Drexel
Missed Teams Out: Purdue, Old Dominion, BC


Here's where I need some work
Seeds Correct: 13/65
1:OSU, Kansas
2: UCLA
3: TAMU
4:Maryland
5:VT
6:Duke
13:Holy Cross
14:ORU
15:Belmont
16:FAMU, Jackson St., Central Connecticut St.

Seeds Within 1 Line: 42/65

Seeds Within 2 Lines: 52/65
Major Seed Misses:
Marquette (5 too high)
Vanderbilt (5 too low)
Villanova (5 too high)
USC (4 too low)
Texas (4 too low)
Butler (4 too low)
Illinois (4 too high)
Winthrop (3 too high)
Arizona (3 too high)
Long Beach St. (3 too low)
BYU (3 too low)
Kentucky (3 too high)
George Washington (3 too low)
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Quick Recap

Obviously I didn't get to make a last post before the brackets came out, but I was completely wrong. Well, not completely. But I was wrong enough.

Maybe I'll do better next year.
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Projecting the Seeds 3/10

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, Kansas
2: Florida, UCLA, UNC, Pittsburgh
3: SIU, Texas A&M, Memphis, Marquette
4: Washington St., Maryland, Oregon, Villanova
5: Arizona, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Nevada
6: Virginia, Duke, Indiana, Air Force
7: Michigan St, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Louisville
8: Georgia Tech, Winthrop, Texas, Illinois
9: UNLV, Creighton, Butler, USC
10: Drexel, Stanford, Missouri St., Xavier
11: Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, BYU, Boston College
12: Rhode Island, VCU, Utah State, Davidson
13: Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Wright St., Penn
14: Akron, TAMU-CC, Albany, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., Niagara, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont
16: Weber St., Delaware St., Miss. Valley St., North Texas, C. Conn. St.
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Projecting the Seeds 3-7

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, UNC, Pittsburgh
3: Texas A&M, SIU, Memphis, Maryland
4: Marquette, Washington St., Kentucky, Arizona
5: Duke, Villanova, Air Force, Virginia
6: Oregon, Nevada, Indiana, Virginia Tech
7: Tennessee, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
8: Louisville, Winthrop, Texas, UNLV
9: Illinois, Creighton, Xavier, Stanford
10: Butler, Drexel, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech
11: USC, Missouri St., BYU, Clemson
12: Syracuse, VCU, Boston College, Davidson
13: Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Wright St., Penn
14: Toledo, Vermont, TAMU-CC, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., Niagara, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont
16: Weber St., Delaware St., Miss. Valley St., North Texas, C. Conn. St.

No, Nevada doesn't deserve the respect of a 3rd or 4th. They lost to the only top 50 team they played. Their SOS is 116. But I did take a really long look at them.
Thank you for your input on Kentucky, Duke, Air Force, Nevada, and Tennessee. I do not have the time right now to examine them, but I will be reviewing their cases more closely later tonight.
And, barring a miraculous increase in time, I will not be able to do a bracket Selection Sunday. I will be putting out my projected seeds on Sunday, however.
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Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, UNC, Pittsburgh
3: Texas A&M, SIU, Memphis, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Marquette, Washington St., Duke
5: Air Force, Arizona, Villanova, Virginia
6: Oregon, Nevada, Indiana, Virginia Tech
7: Tennessee, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
8: Louisville, Winthrop, Texas, UNLV
9: Illinois, Creighton, Xavier, Butler
10: Stanford, Drexel, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech
11: USC, Missouri St., BYU, Syracuse,
12: VCU, Boston College, Clemson, Florida St.
13: Davidson, Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Penn
14: Toledo, Vermont, TAMU-CC, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., Niagara, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont
16: Weber St., Delaware St., Arkansas St., Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St.
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Masking the teams

Without looking up the teams, tell me how you would rank them

Team A
Record - 21-9
Last 10 - 3-7
RPI - 34
Road - 6-5
Vs. Top 50 RPI - 6-8
Vs. Top 100 RPI - 9-8
SOS - 46
Non-Con SOS - 213
Top 25 Wins: None
Below 100 RPI Losses: #124

Team B
Record - 24-8
Last 10 - 9-1
RPI - 39
Road - 8-5
Vs. Top 50 RPI - 3-2
Vs. Top 100 RPI - 6-5
SOS - 90
Non-Con SOS - 31
Top 25 Wins: #17
Below 100 RPI Losses: #106, #301, #126

Team C
Record - 19-10
Last 10 - 5-5
RPI - 31
Road - 5-6
Vs. Top 50 RPI - 7-7
Vs. Top 100 RPI - 8-9
SOS - 11
Non-Con SOS - 50
Top 25 Wins: #10, #22
Below 100 RPI Losses: #218

Team D
Record - 20-10
Last 10 - 7-3
RPI - 47
Road - 2-8
Vs. Top 50 RPI - 4-6
Vs. Top 100 RPI - 8-8
SOS - 48
Non-Con SOS - 83
Top 25 Wins: #22, #23
Below 100 RPI Losses:#137, #178
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Projecting the Seeds - March 4

I have to be somewhere else later, so here are my seeds:
Please Note that this does not take into account the Niagara-Loyola(MD) game, the WKU-FAU game, the Gonzaga-San Diego game, or the Santa Clara-St. Mary's game

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, UNC, Pittsburgh
3: Texas A&M, SIU, Memphis, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Marquette, Washington St., Duke
5: Air Force, Arizona, Villanova, Virginia
6: Oregon, Nevada, Indiana, Virginia Tech
7: Tennessee, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech
8: Louisville, Winthrop, Texas, UNLV
9: Illinois, Creighton, Xavier, Butler
10: Stanford, Drexel, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech
11: USC, Missouri St., BYU, Clemson
12: Syracuse, VCU, Boston College, Florida St.
13: Davidson, Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Penn
14: Toledo, Vermont, Western Kentucky, TAMU-CC
15: Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Niagara, Eastern Kentucky
16: Belmont, Weber St., Delaware St., Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St.

Last 4 Out: Old Dominion, Michigan, Purdue, Arkansas
Next 4 Out: Georgia, Washington, West Virginia, Alabama

Bids By Conference:
ACC: 9
Big East: 7
Pac 10: 6
Big 10: 5
Big 12: 4
SEC: 4
MVC: 3
MWC: 3
CAA: 2

Newcomers: W. Kentucky, Florida St., Toledo
Outgoing: S. Alabama, Old Dominion, Akron
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Predicting the Bracket - 3/3

San Jose

-- Sacramento
1 UCLA (Pac-10)
16 Mississippi Valley St. (SWAC)

8 Illinois
9 Butler (Horizon)

-- Columbus
5 Virginia
12 Syracuse

13 Davidson (Southern)
4 Kentucky

-- Buffalo
3 Maryland
14 Akron (MAC)

11 BYU
6 Indiana

-- New Orleans
7 Georgia Tech
10 Drexel (CAA)

15 Eastern Kentucky (OVC)
2 Kansas (Big 12)

East Rutherford

-- Lexington
1 Ohio St. (Big 10)
16 Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

8 Winthrop (Big South)
9 Creighton

-- Spokane
5 Arizona
12 Virginia Commonwealth

13 Holy Cross (Patriot)
4 Duke

-- Sacramento
3 Texas A&M
14 Oral Roberts (MCC)

11 Boston College
6 Tennessee

-- Columbus
7 Michigan St.
10 Missouri St.

15 Long Beach St. (Big West)
2 Pittsburgh

San Antonio

-- Buffalo
1 Georgetown (Big East)
16 Delaware St. (MEAC)

8 Texas
9 Stanford

-- Chicago
5 Air Force (MWC)
12 Florida St.

13 Penn (Ivy)
4 Washington St.

-- Winston-Salem
3 Memphis (CUSA)
14 Vermont (America East)

11 USC
6 Virginia Tech

-- Winston-Salem
7 Louisville
10 Vanderbilt

15 Marist (MAAC)
2 North Carolina (ACC)

St. Louis

-- Chicago
1 Wisconsin
16 Play-in (Weber St./C. Conn. St) (Big Sky/NEC)

8 UNLV
9 Xavier (A-10)

-- Spokane
5 Oregon
12 Old Dominion

13 Gonzaga (WCC)
4 Marquette

-- Lexington
3 Southern Illinois (MVC)
14 TAMU-CC (Southland)

11 Clemson
6 Nevada (WAC)

-- New Orleans
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas Tech

15 South Alabama (Sun Belt)
2 Florida (SEC)


Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, UCLA
2: Kansas, UNC, Florida, Pittsburgh
3: Texas A&M, SIU, Memphis, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Marquette, Washington St., Duke
5: Air Force, Arizona, Virginia, Oregon
6: Nevada, Virginia Tech, Indiana, Tennessee
7: Michigan St, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Louisville
8: Winthrop, Texas, UNLV, Illinois
9: Creighton, Xavier, Butler, Stanford
10: Drexel, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, USC
11: Missouri St., Syracuse, BYU, Boston College
12: Clemson, Old Dominion, VCU, Florida St.
13: Davidson, Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Penn
14: Akron, Vermont, TAMU-CC, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., South Alabama, Marist, Eastern Kentucky
16: Belmont, Weber St., Delaware St., Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St.

Last 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Georgia, Washington
Next 5 Out: West Virginia, Alabama, San Diego St., DePaul, Kansas St.

Bids By Conference:
ACC: 9
Big East: 6
Pac 10: 6
Big 10: 5
Big 12: 4
SEC: 4
MVC: 3
CAA: 3
MWC: 3

Newcomers: Clemson, Florida St.
Outgoing: West Virginia, Purdue
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Projecting the Seeds - March 2, 2007

I'm way too tired to differentiate between the predicted conference leaders, so they are staying the same.

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: UCLA, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown
2: Kansas, UNC, Pittsburgh, Florida
3: Texas A&M, Memphis, SIU, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Washington St., Marquette, Duke
5: Virginia, Air Force, Arizona, Oregon
6: Nevada, Virginia Tech, Michigan St., Indiana
7: Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville
8: Texas, Winthrop, Illinois, UNLV
9: Creighton, Xavier, Stanford, Butler
10: VCU, Vanderbilt, Drexel, USC
11: Syracuse, Texas Tech, Missouri St, BYU
12: Boston College, Old Dominion, Purdue, West Virginia
13: Davidson, Holy Cross, Penn, Gonzaga
14: TAMU-CC, Vermont, Oral Roberts, S. Alabama
15: Akron, Marist, ETSU, Long Beach St.
16: Weber St., Austin Peay, Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St., Delaware St.

Last 4 Out: Arkansas, Alabama, Kansas St., Depaul
Newcomers: West Virginia
Outgoing: App. St.
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Top 4 Seed Lines

This is taking longer than anticipated, but here are the top four seed lines

1: UCLA, Ohio St., Wisconsin, Georgetown
2: Kansas, UNC, Pittsburgh, Florida
3: Texas A&M, Memphis, SIU, Maryland
4: Kentucky, Washington St., Marquette, Duke

The toughest decision was between Georgetown and Kansas.
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New Seed will be posted later today, and I should have a new bracket out by tomorrow morning.
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Projected Seeds - March 1

Sorry, I was planning on making a bracket, but got carried away by and didn't get it out.

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: UCLA, Ohio St., Wisconsin, UNC
2: Kansas, Georgetown, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
3: SIU, Duke, Florida, Butler
4: Kentucky, Nevada, Washington St., Memphis
5: Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Marquette
6: Maryland, Boston College, BYU, Michigan St.
7: Air Force, UNLV, Arizona, Notre Dame
8: Oregon, Creighton, Virginia, Missouri St.
9: Louisville, Texas, Winthrop, USC
10: Texas Tech, Villanova, Xavier, VCU
11: Old Dominion, Drexel, Appalachian St., Tennessee
12: Stanford, Syracuse, Arkansas, Purdue
13: Davidson, Holy Cross, Penn, Gonzaga
14: TAMU-CC, Vermont, Oral Roberts, S. Alabama
15: Akron, Marist, ETSU, Long Beach St.
16: Weber St., Austin Peay, Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St., Delaware St.


Last 5 Out: Illinois, Alabama, West Virginia, Kansas St., DePaul
Next 5 Out: Georgia, Clemson, Michigan, San Diego St.,
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Arkansas vs. Alabama and Why Illinois isn't in my projection

As you can see, I chose Arkansas in my last post. Here is my reasoning.

Alabama’s wins against the top 50 in RPI are Kentucky and Xavier, while Arkansas has won AT Southern Illinois and against Alabama twice. The Razorback’s worst losses are at LSU (a tough home environment), at Auburn, and at South Carolina, while the Tide’s worst are two against Auburn and two against Arkansas. Both teams are equally pitiful on the road; Arkansas is 1-8 while Alabama is 2-7. Arkansas played a much tougher schedule, with their SOS ranked 13 by realtimeRPI.com, as opposed to the 47 SOS of Alabama.

Obviously the differences between the teams are minimal. What sets Arkansas above Alabama is that Arkansas won twice, and Arkansas' impressive win on the road against SIU.

Illinois is not in my projections because of their 6-9 mark against the RPI top 100. The only teams they beat that will be getting at-large berths are Michigan St. and IU, both at home. In all fairness, they probably should be in my last 10 out, as they beat Bradley on the road, but I didn't see that when making those last projections. However, they haven't done enough to warrant a tourney bid. A Big 10 tourney run that includes another win against MSU or IU or a win against Wisconsin or OSU might get them in.
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Projecting the Seeds - 2/28

I don't have time to do the whole bracket, but here are my updated seeds:

Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: UCLA, Ohio St., Wisconsin, UNC
2: Kansas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Pittsburgh
3: Duke, Florida, SIU, Butler
4: Kentucky, Nevada, Washington St., Virginia Tech
5: Memphis, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Marquette
6: Boston College, BYU, Michigan St. Maryland,
7: Air Force, UNLV, Arizona, Notre Dame
8: Oregon, Creighton, Virginia, Missouri St.
9: Louisville, Texas, Winthrop, USC
10: Texas Tech, Villanova, Xavier, VCU
11: Old Dominion, Drexel, Appalachian St., Tennessee
12: Stanford, Drexel, Syracuse, Arkansas
13: Davidson, Holy Cross, Penn, Gonzaga
14: TAMU-CC, Vermont, Oral Roberts, S. Alabama
15: Akron, Marist, ETSU, Long Beach St.
16: Weber St., Austin Peay, Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St., Delaware St.


Newcomers: Arkansas
Outgoing: West Virginia

Last 5 Out: Clemson, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St., Alabama
Next 5 Out: Georgia, DePaul, Bradley, Michigan, San Diego St.,
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Updated Bracket - 2/27

Please note that I had to bump Louisville, Notre Dame, and Xavier up a seed line, and Virginia, Texas, and Missouri St. down a seed line to make this work.

San Jose

-- Sacramento
1 UCLA (Pac 10)
16 Delaware St. (MEAC)

8 Louisville
9 Winthrop (Big South)

-- Buffalo
5 Michigan St.
12 Drexel

13 Gonzaga (WCC)
4 Kentucky

-- Chicago
3 Southern Illinois (MVC)
14 Oral Roberts (MCC)

11 Illinois
6 Air Force

-- Winston-Salem
7 Notre Dame
10 Texas Tech

15 Marist (MAAC)
2 Duke

East Rutherford

-- Lexington
1 Ohio St. (Big 10)
16 Austin Peay (OVC)

8 Virginia
9 USC

-- Sacramento
5 Memphis (CUSA)
12 West Virginia

13 Holy Cross (Patriot)
4 Virginia Tech

-- Buffalo
3 Georgetown (Big East)
14 Vermont (America East)

11 Stanford
6 Brigham Young (MWC)

-- New Orleans
7 Maryland
10 Virginia Commonwealth (CAA)

15 Long Beach St. (Big West)
2 Texas A&M

San Antonio

-- Winston-Salem
1 North Carolina (ACC)
16 Weber St. (Big Sky)

8 Oregon
9 Missouri St.

-- Spokane
5 Indiana
12 Tennessee

13 Pennsylvania (Ivy)
4 Nevada (WAC)

-- Columbus
3 Pittsburgh
14 TAMU-CC (Southland)

11 Appalachian St.
6 Boston College

-- New Orleans
7 UNLV
10 Texas

15 ETSU (Atlantic Sun)
2 Florida (SEC)

St. Louis

-- Chicago
1 Wisconsin
16 Mississippi Valley St. (SWAC)/Central Conn. St. (NEC)

8 Arizona
9 Xavier (A-10)

-- Columbus
5 Vanderbilt
12 Syracuse

13 Davidson (Southern)
4 Butler (Horizon)

-- Spokane
3 Washington St.
14 South Alabama (Sun Belt)

11 Old Dominion
6 Marquette

-- Lexington
7 Creighton
10 Villanova

15 Akron (MAC)
2 Kansas


Original Seeds (Bold = Conference Champs)
1: UCLA, Ohio St., Wisconsin, UNC
2: Kansas, Florida, Texas A&M, Duke
3: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, SIU, Washington St.
4: Butler, Nevada, Kentucky, Virginia Tech
5: Memphis, Michigan St., Vanderbilt, Indiana
6: Marquette, BYU, Air Force, Boston College
7: UNLV, Creighton, Maryland, Virginia
8: Oregon, Notre Dame, Arizona, Missouri St.
9: Louisville, Texas, Winthrop, USC
10: Texas Tech, Villanova, Xavier, VCU
11: Appalachian St., Stanford, Old Dominion, Illinois
12: Drexel, West Virginia, Syracuse, Tennessee
13: Davidson, Holy Cross, Penn, Gonzaga
14: TAMU-CC, Vermont, Oral Roberts, S. Alabama
15: Akron, Marist, ETSU, Long Beach St.
16: Weber St., Austin Peay, Miss. Valley St., C. Conn. St., Delaware St.

Bids By Conference
Big East: 8
ACC: 6
Pac 10: 6
Big 10: 5
Big 12: 4
SEC: 4
MVC: 3
CAA: 3
MWC: 3
SoCon: 2

Newcomers: Syracuse, Tennessee, Miss. Valley St., Gonzaga
Outgoing: Purdue, Bradley, Jackson St., Santa Clara
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Updated Bracket 2-26

Well, I noticed a few scheduling errors (such as a potential Memphis v. Kentucky), as well as some teams seeded too high or too low, so here's an update even before tonight's games:

San Jose

-- Sacramento
1 UCLA (PAC 10)
16 Austin Peay (OVC)

8 Missouri St.
9 Texas Tech

-- Spokane
12 Purdue
5 Memphis (CUSA)

13 Santa Clara (WCC)
4 Virginia Tech

-- Columbus
3 Pittsburgh
14 Oral Roberts

11 Bradley
6 Boston College

-- New Orleans
7 UNLV
10 Xavier (A 10)

15 E. Tenn. St. (Atlantic Sun)
2 Florida (SEC)

East Rutherford

-- Lexington
1 Ohio St. (BIG 10)
16 Weber St. (Big Sky)

8 Arizona
9 Winthrop (Big South)

-- Sacramento
12 Stanford
5 Indiana

13 Penn (Ivy)
4 Nevada (WAC)

-- Chicago
3 Southern Illinois (MVC)
14 Vermont (America East)

11 Appalachian St
6 Marquette

-- New Orleans
7 Maryland
10 VCU (CAA)

15 Marist (MAAC)
2 Texas A&M

San Antonio

-- Winston-Salem
1 UNC (ACC)
16 Delaware St. (MEAC)

8 ND
9 Texas

-- Columbus
12 Illinois
5 Vanderbilt

13 Holy Cross (Patriot)
4 Butler (Horizon)

-- Spokane
3 Washington St.
14 TAMU-CC (Southland)

11 Old Dominion
6 Air Force

-- Buffalo
7 Virginia
10 USC

15 Akron (MAC)
2 Georgetown (Big East)

St. Louis

-- Chicago
1 Wisconsin
16 Play-in (Central Conn. St., Jackson St.) (Northeastern, SWAC)

8 Oregon
9 Louisville

-- Buffalo
12 Drexel
5 Michigan St.

13 Davidson (Southern)
4 Kentucky

-- Winston-Salem
3 Duke
14 S. Alabama (Sun Belt)

11 West Virginia
6 BYU (MWC)

-- Lexington
7 Creighton
10 Villanova

15 Long Beach St. (Big West)
2 Kansas (BIG 12)

Big East: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 6
Pac 10: 6
Big 12: 4
MVC: 4
SEC: 3
CAA: 3
MWC: 3
SoCon: 2

Last 5 IN: Bradley, Stanford, Drexel, Purdue, Illinois
Last 5 OUT: Kansas St., Alabama, Tenn., GT, Mass
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Updated Bracket - 2/25

If I've violated any scheduling rules, please point them out to me. Note that Texas is a true 9, while Texas Tech is a true 10.

Conference champs have their conference after them. Final Four Matchups: San Jose v. San Antonio, East Rutherford v. St. Louis

San Jose

-- Sacramento
1 UCLA (Pac 10)
16 Austin Peay (OVC)

8 Notre Dame
9 Missouri St.

-- Spokane
12 West Virginia
5 Michigan St.

13 Pennsylvania (Ivy)
4 Virginia Tech

-- Columbus
3 Pittsburgh
14 Oral Roberts (MCC)

11 Xavier (A-10)
6 Boston College

-- New Orleans
7 UNLV
10 Virginia Commonwealth (CAA)

15 Marist (MAAC)
2 Texas A&M

East Rutherford

-- Lexington
1 Ohio St. (Big 10)
16 Jackson St. (SWAC)

8 Oregon
9 Louisville

-- Sacramento
12 Drexel
5 Indiana

13 Davidson (Southern)
4 Nevada (WAC)

-- Chicago
3 Southern Illinois (MVC)
14 Vermont (America East)

11 Massachusetts
6 Marquette

-- New Orleans
7 Maryland
10 Southern Cal

15 Eastern Tennessee St. (Atlantic Sun)
2 Florida (SEC)

San Antonio

-- Winston-Salem
1 UNC (ACC)
16 Weber St. (Big Sky)

8 Villanova
9 Texas Tech

-- Columbus
12 Illinois
5 Vanderbilt

13 Holy Cross (Patriot)
4 Butler (Horizon)

-- Spokane
3 Washington St.
14 TAMU – Corpus Christi (Southland)

11 Appalachian St.
6 Air Force

-- Buffalo
7 Virginia
10 Texas

15 Long Beach St. (Big West)
2 Georgetown (Big East)

St. Louis

-- Chicago
1 Wisconsin (BIG 10 1)
16 Play-in (Central Conn. St., Delaware St.) (Northeastern, MEAC)

8 Arizona (PAC 10 4)
9 Bradley (MVC 4)

-- Buffalo
12 Purdue (BIG 10 5)
5 Memphis (CUSA)

13 Santa Clara (WCC)
4 Kentucky (SEC 2)

-- Winston-Salem
3 Duke (ACC 2)
14 S. Alabama (Sun Belt)

11 Old Dominion (CAA 2)
6 BYU (MWC 1)

-- Lexington
7 Creighton (MVC 2)
10 Winthrop (Big South)

15 Akron (MAC)
2 Kansas (BIG 12 1)

Big East: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 6
Pac 10: 5
Big 12: 4
MVC: 4
SEC: 3
CAA: 3
MWC: 3
SoCon: 2
A-10: 2

Read more!

Projected Seeds - 2/25

My Projected Seeds - Bold = Conference Champs

1: UCLA, UNC, OSU, Wisc
2: Gtown, UF, KU, TAMU
3: Pitt, Duke, SIU, Wash St.
4: Butler, Nevada, UK, VT
5: Memphis, Mich. St., Vandy, IU
6: Marq, BYU, AFA, BC
7: UNLV, Creigh, MD, UVA
8: Nova, ND, Oregon, Zona
9: Mizzou St., Bradley, Texas, UL
10: TTU, USC, Winthrop, VCU
11: App. St., Xavier, UMass, ODU
12: Drexel, WVU, Purdue, Illinois
13: Davidson, Santa Clara, HC, Penn
14: TAMU-CC, Vermont, ORU, S. Alabama
15: Marist, ETSU, Akron, Long Beach St.
16: Weber St., Jackson St., Austin Peay, C. Conn. St., Delaware St. Last two are in play-in game

As for how often I plan to post... It will happen as often as I feel like it, and as often as my work allows me to.
Constructive criticism is welcome, telling me I'm an idiot is not.
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