So Basically, This Blog Is Done for the Year

I thought about posting previews for the tournament games... but I didn't.
I thought about posting thoughts about the games... but I didn't.

So I suppose I'll lay this to rest until late October.

And next year, I'll post more consistently, and more in-depth.
And I may try to post something AFTER Selection Sunday.
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Just looking over my projected bracket

I noticed that I posted the wrong.

I predicted two first round matchups:

Stanford-Cornell
Purdue-Baylor
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Full Disclosure

I fail again.
Out of 53 brackets this year over at the Bracket Matrix, I finished (according to the Parrish Rubric) 49th - ahead of James Worthy, Jim Colton, RPI Forecast, and Sports Projections.

Here's my Breakdown:
Teams Correct: 63
I missed Kentucky and St. Joe's (my 1st and 3rd teams out). I had in Arizona St. and Ohio St.

I was personally shocked that Arizona St. missed, but I suppose it was to be expected with their weak non-conference schedule and whatnot. However, I've heard a rumor that their RPI of 82 was the factor that kept them out. If so, then obviously the committee sees the actual RPI - something that I had been told was false. Furthermore, this would indicate that this committee took a big look at the RPI numbers - something that I would disagree with.

No complaints on Kentucky over Ohio St. - I was thinking about switching this, but I belived that the fact the Kentucky lost to Georgia in the SEC tourney would be enough keep them out. I suppose that this is a situation where I should have looked harder at the RPI.

Seeds Correct: 31
I got 11 1's, 2's, 3's correct. (missed on Xavier)
I got 6 15's and 16's correct. (I missed Portland St. and American)
Other than that:
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: 4
Drake/Clemson: 5
Southern Cal: 6
Oregon/Arkansas: 9 - I'm quite proud of these two, as I got much hate from people over my seeding for both of these.. only positive in my whole seed list.
Temple: 12
Winthrop/Oral Roberts: 13
Cornell, Boise St., CSU-Fullerton: 14

Seeds within 1 line: 46
Xavier - Me: 4, Them: 3
ND - Me: 4, Them: 5
WSU - Me: 5, Them: 4
West Virginia - Me: 5, Them: 6
Oklahoma - Me: 7, Them: 6
Purdue - Me: 7, Them: 6
Gonzaga - Me: 8, Them: 7
St. Mary's - Me: 11, Them: 10
South Alabama - Me: 11, Them: 10
San Diego - Me: 12, Them: 13
George Mason - Me: 13, Them: 12
Western Kentucky - Me: 13, Them: 12
Siena - Me: 14, Them: 13
Portland St. - Me: 15, Them: 16
American - Me: 16, Them: 15

This leaves 17 teams I missed badly on seeding.

Marquette: Me: 3, Them: 6 - I'm not quite sure why they dropped so low. In retrospect, I can see why Xavier should have been swapped with Marquette on the seed list, and possibly moving them below ND, but I maintain that Marquette has a better resume than Pitt.

Butler: Me: 5, Them: 7 - This one seems pretty clear to me why they were lower than expected. Throughout the year, people noticed that Butler had hardly any good wins. However, the popular consensus was that Butler would get a boost because it was evident that they had attempted to schedule good teams. Obviously, this was not the case.

Vanderbilt: Me: 6, Them: 4 - If I hadn't counted their loss their to Alabama so much, they might have been a 5. I don't know on this one - I think its possible that they got a gift. Other than West Virginia and Butler, I really don't see anyone above them on the seed list that I would have pushed them above.

Indiana: Me: 6, Them: 8 - They might have gotten hosed - however, looking back, I should have put Oklahoma ahead of them. This would have made Indiana a 7 (within one seed line) and made Oklahoma just right. I really should have gone through my seed list a second time.

Texas A&M: Me: 7, Them: 9 - I don't know. Maybe I just overrate Big XII teams.

Michigan St: Me: 7, Them: 5 - This one, I can see. I really screwed up on Michigan St - Undervaluing their good wins, overvaluing their bad losses.

Davidson: Me: 8, Them: 10 - See bit about Butler. The committee apparently doesn't care whether you tried to schedule hard, just if you did anything about it.

Arizona: Me: 8, Them: 10 - Behind Oregon? This I don't understand - Not the seeding, but the relative order.

Kansas St./Baylor: Me: 9, Them: 11 - Further evidence that I overrate Big XII teams. I'll need to remember this for next year. I think that there was no Big XII rep on the committee, so that may have been a factor.

Miami (FL): Me: 10, Them: 7 - I don't understand this one either. The Bracket Matrix average was 9, so it shows that I wasn't alone.

BYU: Me: 10, Them: 8
UNLV: Me: 11, Them: 8 - The committee thought more highly of the MWC than I thought

Mississippi St: Me: 10, Them: 8 - This one I really don't understand. Their best win was Arkansas, and they had losses against UGA and SIU. Perhaps Conference tourney losses don't hurt that much?

Villanova: Me: 10, Them: 12 - My Big East bias, possibly

Georgia: Me: 12, Them: 14 - I'm impressed here. I thought that the committee would be lazy, and merely sub Georgia in for another major conference team. Instead, they made up a full bracket, with Georgia in at a reasonable seed. Kudos to the committee.

Kent St: Me: 12, Them: 9 - I really don't understand this one. Kent St. has a very similar profile to Butler - if Butler had 3 losses to teams outside the top 200. I'll have to look at this one more closely.

So, in short:
1) The committee doesn't care if you tried to schedule well and failed (Butler and Davidson).
2) However, they do care if you didn't try to schedule well (Arizona St.)
3) If you are a Big 6 team without committee representation, prepare to be underseeded. (Big XII)
4) Sunday surprises will be accounted for properly. (Georgia)
5) I should back away from my seed list, and then come back to it. If a team doesn't feel right, get them out (Kentucky, Ohio St.)
6) Don't listen to what popular opinions say (only 19 bracketologists had Oregon in).

Final Note: I cannot confirm or deny the following. However, it appears that Joe Lunardi may have switched Villanova and Virginia Tech at 5:50 - AFTER ESPN got their copy of the brackets. This is supported by the fact that earlier in the afternoon, Nova was 3rd out, and VT was 2nd in. If this is true, this seems quite dishonest. If someone has evidence that this did or did not happen, I would appreciate it.
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Bracket - Just for Kicks - 10 Minutes

Teams moved to fulfill Bracket Requirements
UP: Villanova, USC, BYU
DOWN: Clemson, Baylor, Oregon


Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – American (Patriot)
9 – Arkansas (SEC)
8 - Arizona
Tampa, Florida
5 – Southern Cal
12 – Kent St. (MAC)
13 – Siena (MAAC)
4 - Connecticut
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Cornell (IVY)
11 – St. Mary’s
6 – West Virginia
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 - Purdue
10 - Baylor
15 – Maryland-Baltimore County (America East)
2 – Duke

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA (Pac-10)
16 – Northwestern St. (Southland)
9 – BYU
8 - Gonzaga
Denver, Colorado
5 – Drake (MVC)
12 – Temple (A-10)
13 – Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
4 – Notre Dame
Washington, D.C.
3 - Marquette
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Ohio St.
6 - Vanderbilt
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – Michigan St.
10 – Miami (FL)
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – North Carolina (ACC)
16 – Play-in (Mount St. Mary’s vs. Mississippi Valley St.)
9 – Kansas St.
8 – Arizona St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Butler (Horizon)
12 – Virginia Tech
13 – George Mason (CAA)
4 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
Washington, D.C.
3 - Louisville
14 – CSU-Fullerton (Big West)
11 – UNLV (MWC)
6 – Indiana
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Texas A&M
10 - Villanova
15 – Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
2 – Tennessee

Detroit Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Memphis (CUSA)
16 – Coppin St. (MEAC)
9 – Oregon
8 – Davidson (SoCon)
Tampa, Florida
5 – Washington St.
12 – UNLV (MWC)
13 – Oral Roberts (Summit)
4 – Xavier (A-10)
Omaha, Nebraska
3 – Wisconsin (Big 10)
14 – Boise St. (WAC)
11 – Illinois St.
6 - Clemson
Birmingham, Alabama
7 - Oklahoma
10 – Mississippi St.
15 – Portland St. (Big Sky)
2 – Georgetown

Read more!

20 minutes!!! FINAL SEED LIST

Bracket Project Guy - Take this one.
Georgia Won, so VT is out. As noted earlier, I swapped South Alabama and Illinois St.

1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas
2: Texas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, Ohio St., South Alabama, UNLV
12: Georgia, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, UT-Arlington, Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, Illinois St., St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU
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Bracket, 15.75 hours til Selection Sunday

Here is my first published bracket in two months. If Texas, Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Northwestern St. win, this will be my final bracket. I'd like to point out that either Georgetown or Duke is going to get screwed with respect to location - G'town's closest pod is in Raleigh.
The following teams were moved up or down a seed line to fulfill bracket requirements:
UP: USC, BYU, Villanova, UNLV, Siena
DOWN: Clemson, Baylor, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Winthrop



Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – American (Patriot)
9 – Arkansas (SEC)
8 - Arizona
Tampa, Florida
5 – Southern Cal
12 – Kent St. (MAC)
13 – Siena (MAAC)
4 - Connecticut
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Cornell (IVY)
11 – St. Mary’s
6 – West Virginia
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 - Purdue
10 - Baylor
15 – Maryland-Baltimore County (America East)
2 – Duke


Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA (Pac-10)
16 – Northwestern St. (Southland)
9 – BYU
8 - Gonzaga
Denver, Colorado
5 – Drake (MVC)
12 – Virginia Tech
13 – Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
4 – Notre Dame
Washington, D.C.
3 - Marquette
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Ohio St.
6 - Vanderbilt
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – Michigan St.
10 – Miami (FL)
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas


North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – North Carolina (ACC)
16 – Play-in (Mount St. Mary’s vs. Mississippi Valley St.)
9 – Kansas St.
8 – Arizona St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Butler (Horizon)
12 – Temple (A-10)
13 – George Mason (CAA)
4 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
Washington, D.C.
3 - Louisville
14 – CSU-Fullerton (Big West)
11 – UNLV (MWC)
6 – Indiana
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Texas A&M
10 - Oregon
15 – Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
2 – Tennessee


Detroit Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Memphis (CUSA)
16 – Coppin St. (MEAC)
9 – Villanova
8 – Davidson (SoCon)
Tampa, Florida
5 – Washington St.
12 – San Diego (WCC)
13 – Oral Roberts (Summit)
4 – Xavier (A-10)
Omaha, Nebraska
3 – Wisconsin (Big 10)
14 – Boise St. (WAC)
11 – South Alabama
6 - Clemson
Birmingham, Alabama
7 - Oklahoma
10 – Mississippi St.
15 – Portland St. (Big Sky)
2 – Georgetown

Read more!

16 Hours until the Selection Show

Its almost that time again. Some quick thoughts:
UCLA, UNC, and Memphis are all but assured of one seeds. The bubble starts at Arizona St. – that is, I would not be overly surprised to see any of them out. As I said yesterday, if Virginia Tech is competitive against UNC, they’ll get in. They did so – just one problem. Because of the way the bubble teams played, VT is the last team in. If either Georgia or Illinois wins their respective tournaments, then VT is out again, unless I change my mind and swap out Ohio St. instead. If both UGA and UI win, then both Ohio St. and Virginia Tech are out. No questions asked.
Texas and Kansas will be 4 and 5 overall, with the winner getting the 4 and the loser getting the 5. Besides this, the Southland championship, and the aforementioned scenarios involving Illinois, Georgia, VT, and OSU, nothing should change. If Texas, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Northwestern St. all win, this will be my final seed list.
Kentucky fans have to be in serious pain. I mean, all they had to do was not lose against bad teams, and they’d be golden. And they lost to the worst team in the SEC. Sheesh. Arkansas fans do not have to have similar worries, since Sunday championships have very little impact on the bracket. And to all those Arkansas fans out there – I’m paying attention. I maintain that they were out before the Vandy win, an 11 before the Tennessee win, and are now a 9.
My bracket will be coming out shortly. I just need to make sure there are no conflicts.
Italics now mean that the conference has NOT had their championship yet.

EDIT: After much deliberation, I decided to swap Illinois St and South Alabama. Also, I decided this about the conference tourneys: If Georgia wins, they replace VT. If Illinois wins, they replace Ohio St. If Texas-KU goes to overtime, Texas gets the 1 seed.
1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Texas
2: Kansas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, South Alabama, Ohio St., Virginia Tech
12: UNLV, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, Northwestern ST., Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, South Alabama, St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU
New Teams In: Temple, Boise St, Coppin St, Virginia Tech, UNLV
Old Teams Out: St. Joe’s, New Mexico St, Morgan St, Kentucky, Illinois St.
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10, ACC
4: SEC
3: WCC
2: MWC, Sun Belt, A-10
Read more!

Seed List through PI Day

Too tired to comment. Will remark on today’s events… tomorrow evening? Didn’t manage to complete a bracket, but I did make a list of the top four seed by region (yes, Tennessee will snipe the 1 seed in the North Carolina Regional). I can say that with the losses today, there are only 5 teams left on my bubble. Biggest Debate in my mind (especially if St. Joe's or Kent St. loses tomorrow): Ohio St vs. South Alabama vs. St. Joe's vs. UNLV vs. Kent St.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Xavier, Notre Dame, Drake
5: Pittsburgh, Butler, Washington St., Southern Cal
6: Clemson, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Arizona, Mississippi St., Davidson
9: Oregon, Kansas St., Arizona St., BYU
10: Baylor, Miami (FL), Villanova, Kentucky
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Arkansas, Ohio St.
12: South Alabama, St. Joe's, Kent St., San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Cal-State Fullerton, New Mexico St
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: Morgan St, American, Northwestern ST., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
Last Five Out: UNLV, VT , Dayton, Syracuse, VCU,
New Teams In: St. Joe's, Arkansas, CSU-Fullerton, Northwestern St.
Old Teams Out: Dayton, UNLV, UC-Santa Barabara, Stephen F. Austin
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10, SEC
4: ACC
3: WCC
2: A-10, MVC, Sun Belt

Texas Regional:
1. Memphis
2. Texas
3. Stanford
4. Notre Dame

Arizona Regional:
1. UCLA
2. Kansas
3. Marquette
4. Connecticut

Detroit Regional:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgetown
3. Wisconsin
4. Xavier

North Carolina Regional:
1. Tennessee
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Drake
Read more!

Seed List Through Thursday, March 13

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Xavier
4: Marquette, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Drake
5: Butler, Pittsburgh, Washington St., Southern Cal
6: Vanderbilt, Clemson, Indiana, Oklahoma
7: Purdue, West Virginia, Arizona, Texas A&M
8: Michigan St., Arizona St., Gonzaga, Oregon
9: Kansas St., Mississippi St., Davidson, BYU
10: Baylor, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Villanova
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Ohio St., Kent St.
12: Dayton, UNLV, South Alabama, San Diego
13: George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Mount St. Mary's, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, St. Joe’s, Syracuse, VCU
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, New Mexico
New Teams In: South Alabama, Mount St. Mary's
Old Teams Out: Syracuse, Sacred Heart
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10
4: ACC, SEC
3: WCC
2: MWC, A-10, MVC, Sun Belt
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Thoughts following Thursday, March 13

First of all, I still haven't posted the link to the bloggers Big East Awards (the ones you saw earlier were my personal votes). Here is that link.

Explain something to me. ESPN said yesterday that the winner of Syracuse-Villanova was definitely in. Today, when Villanova lost a game to Georgetown, an elite team with whom they were competitive in for most of the game, suddenly Villanova’s bubble chances were fading. Any other questions as to why I don’t rely on ESPN for analysis?

I finally changed my stance regarding Syracuse due to a blogpost from Gary Parrish, linked here. I will be replacing them with South Alabama, just because I can’t bring myself to put either St. Joe’s or Arkansas in. If by some chance Syracuse does make it in… I hate each and every one of you college basketball fans who talked me out of selecting them.

Several teams bubbles burst today – Maryland losing to Boston College, Florida losing to Alabama, Texas Tech losing to Oklahoma St., Massachusetts losing to Charlotte, UAB losing to Tulsa, and New Mexico losing to Utah. Each of those teams are officially off my bubble – I am certain that none of them will make the tourney.

Other teams merely hurt their seed. Arizona St. could have used the win over USC, but instead they’ll probably have to settle for an 8 or 9 seed. Dayton is still in following their close loss to Xavier, but they will be sweating on Sunday. Villanova and Oregon are in that same situation as Dayton – probably in, but not certain, following losses to Georgetown and Washington St., respectively. Baylor will probably drop a line or two following an embarrassing loss to Colorado, but I still won’t say they are a bubble team.

UNLV almost suffered a crushing loss to TCU, one that assuredly would have dropped them from the tournament. They survived, but another close win to a bad team on their home court might cause the committee to rethink them.

So in reality, I have on my bubble what you see here, plus 3 teams: Arkansas, St. Joe’s, and Syracuse. I also have a list of teams that could potentially be at-large bids with runs to the conference final: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St. and Nebraska. Beyond that… nothing. Nada. No other team is really deserving at this point. I suppose if pressed for a fourth team, I would say VCU.

In any event, seed list to follow soon. Hopefully, I will produce a bracket Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon.
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My 34

On Wednesday, each committee member had to submit a list of the 34 teams they consider in. Any team that gets all but two votes get in. Note that it is my understanding that Drake and Butler would get put on these ballots, even though they already qualified. To put an end to my early morning posting, the teams I feel probably got in unanimously on this ballot, in no real order:

1. UCLA
2. Memphis
3. Tennessee
4. Duke
5. UNC
6. Texas
7. Xavier
8. Georgetown
9. Kansas
10. Louisville
11. Notre Dame
12. Connecticut
13. Wisconsin
14. Stanford
15. Purdue
16. Vanderbilt
17. Marquette
18. Clemson
19. Indiana
20. Southern Cal
21. Washington St.
22. Michigan St.
23. Drake
24. Butler
25. Pittsburgh
26. West Virginia
27. Baylor

Other teams that may have gotten in on that first ballot:

1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Arizona St.
4. Oklahoma
5. Davidson

I wish I could see the votes... it would be so interesting to see what the actual committee thinks. Perhaps they could do that, since the committee is isolated and the votes anonymous even to the committee. Alas, that would kill much of the mystique of Selection Sunday. Perhaps they could reveal the votes after the fact?
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Are you Listening Boeheim?

Contrary to what ESPN says, the Orange are not out.

This is how weak the bubble is - Syracuse still has a legit shot at making the tournament, because they have 2 marquee wins (G'town and Marquette) and only 1 bad loss (USF), defined by me as a loss to a team above 100 in the Colton Index

Of the teams on the bubble, only Oregon and Florida have only 1 bad loss (the rest have between 2 and 5). If you insist on calling the Arizona teams bubble teams, UA has 0, while ASU has 1.

Only Kentucky, St. Mary's, and Ohio St. have at least two marquee wins (Arizona and Arizona St. both have 3, if you insist again on calling them bubble teams).

Syracuse also has a better SOS: 33, better than any bubble teams not from the Pac-10 or Ohio St. (Texas Tech also has a better SOS, but I don't know if anyone else consider them a bubble team).

So tell me: If teams out there don't have more good wins, or fewer bad losses, or better schedules, then what do they have?

You may point to the previous snubs of the Orange(men) as evidence for them not getting in. The difference is this - the last committee didn't include a Big East Rep.

If you want to play along with ESPN and say that Syracuse has no chance, be my guest. Heck, even Boeheim has bought into the media attention. But I am of the opinion that they still have a good case for being in.
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Another two Profiles to consider

Team A (Bubble In)
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-2 (Win over BYU)
50-100 Record: 4-2
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 147
Last 10: 7-3

Team B (Not on Bubble)
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 0-2
50-100 Record: 8-2
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 78
Last 10: 6-4

Is a win over a team that will be no higher than a 7 seed enough to count a team as in off this bubble, especially with two losses to teams above 100 in the Colton Index? Doesn't an 8-4 Record against the top 100 sound better than a 5-4 record?

Speaking of New Mexico...

Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-4 (Win over UNLV)
50-100 Record: 2-1
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 179
Last 10: 8-2

Do you really think a team thats best win is over a team square on the bubble should be in with 2 bad losses? Me either. I get frustrated when I see other bracketologists still projecting them IN.
Read more!

Alright, one thing DOES bother me.

Everyone is STILL projecting team USA (South Alabama) in, despite the semi-final loss to Middle Tennessee St. at home. Obviously people can make persuasive arguments, but lets do a blind resume.

South Alabama:
Overall Record: 24-5
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-1 (Win over Mississippi St.)
50-100 Record: 2-1 (Loss to Mississippi)
100+ Losses: 3
SOS: 209

Team B
Overall Record: 21-4
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-0 (Win over Oklahoma)
50-100 Record: 0-1 (Loss to Texas Tech)
100+ Losses: 3
SOS: 278

So, obviously USA has the better profile, but they are comparable. So why is South Alabama averaging 2 seed lines higher, and in some places has been placed 5 seed lines above mystery team B? Team B isn't even being considered for the bubble in most place.
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Seed List Through Tuesday, March 11/Blogpoll Through Monday

I am not going to make any comments up here at the top. Last time I did that while I was tired (that is, last time I posted), I made a couple credibility destroying mistakes. I’ll not do that again, so I am forgoing any real information up here. However, here's this week's blogpoll.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Louisville, Duke, Georgetown
3: Kansas, Wisconsin, Stanford, Connecticut
4: Xavier, Notre Dame, Drake, Butler
5: Marquette, Washington St., Southern Cal, Vanderbilt
6: Clemson, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma
7: Purdue, Arizona St., Arizona, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Michigan St., Oregon, Baylor
9: Kansas St., Mississippi St., Gonzaga, Davidson
10: BYU, Syracuse, Miami (FL), Kentucky
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Villanova, Kent St.
12: Ohio St., UNLV, Dayton, San Diego
13: George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Sacred Heart, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Florida
Next Five Out: St. Joe’s, Mississippi, South Alabama, Maryland, Maryland
New Teams In: San Diego, Western Kentucky
Old Teams Out: Arkansas, South Alabama
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Seed List Through Sunday, March 9

A little late on my part tonight.
Drake gets their auto-bid, ending the Valley Curse. IU and Michigan St. lost to bad teams, causing a severe drop. `I take back what I said yesterday about Davidson – they may get in even if they lose to Elon. In any case, it will be close if they lose. VCU shockingly lost to W&M, so they are done. Nebraska, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech are essentially done. However, reaching the Big XII finals should be enough for any of those three, as it would require beating either KU or UT.
As someone suggested yesterday in a comment, I considered conference records today, and that led to a little movement. As noted yesterday, the “Last Four Out” is misleading, because I don’t think that those teams have much of a chance at all.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis
2: Texas, Duke, Louisville, Kansas
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Xavier, Wisconsin
4: Notre Dame, Connecticut, Drake, Butler
5: Washington St., Marquette, Southern Cal, Clemson
6: Pittsburgh, Indiana, Arizona, Oklahoma
7: Texas A&M, West Virginia, Purdue, Vanderbilt
8: Michigan St., Arizona St, Baylor, Kansas St
9: Oregon, Miami, Gonzaga, Mississippi St.
10: BYU, Syracuse, Davidson, St. Mary’s,
11: Kentucky, Villanova, Illinois St., Kent St.
12: Ohio St., Dayton, Arkansas, UNLV
13: South Alabama, George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Sacred Heart, Alabama St.Last Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Maryland, Texas Tech, Massachusetts

New Teams In: George Mason, Sacred Heart
Old Teams Out: Virginia Commonwealth, Robert Morris

Edit: I took out something I wrote about St. Mary's/San Diego, which I apparently wrote before the end of the game, and then forgot to edit after USD's amazing comeback.
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Big East End of Year Award Ballot: Go Irish, Beat Famine

1) Louisville
2) Georgetown
3) Notre Dame
4) Connecticut
5) Marquette
6) Pittsburgh
7) West Virginia
8) Villanova
9) Syracuse
10) Cincinnati
11) Providence
12) Seton Hall
13) Depaul
14) St. John’s
15) South Florida
16) Rutgers

• Player of the Year: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

1st Team:

• AJ Price, Connecticut
  
• Jeff Adrien, Connecticut
  
• Kentrell Gransberry, South Florida
  
• David Padgett, Louisville
  
• Sam Young, Pittsburgh

2nd Team:

• Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
  
• Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati
  
• Terrence Williams, Louisville
  
• Donte Green, Syracuse
  
• Brian Laing, Seton Hall

3rd Team:

• Kyle Mcalarney, Notre Dame
  
• Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
  
• Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
  
• Dominique Jones, South Florida
  
• Joe Alexander, West Virginia

• Freshman Of the Year: Donte Green, Syracuse

1st Team:

• Dejuan Blair, Pitt
  
• Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
  
• Dominique Jones, USF
  
• Dar Tucker, Depaul
  
• Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall

2nd Team:

• Mac Koshwal, Depaul
  
• Justin Burrell, St. John’s
  
• Corey Fisher, Villanova
  
• Corey Chandler, Rutgers
  
• DJ Kennedy, St. John’s
  
  
• Coach of the Year: Mike Brey, Notre Dame
  
• Defensive POY: Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
  
• Most Improved Player: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
  
• Projected BET Champ: Louisville
  

2008-09 Top 3
1) Notre Dame
2) Connecticut
3) Syracuse

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Hartford Seed List - Through Saturday, March 8

Really, I didn’t want to put anyone in as that last seed. Arkansas doesn’t deserve it, St. Joe’s doesn’t deserve, TTU doesn’t deserve it, and UMass doesn’t deserve it. If VT can do well in the ACC tourney, they might deserve it. However, I’m just hoping that USD wins the WCC tournament, just so I don’t have to deal with that last spot. Cleveland St. from the Horizon, or any of the lower teams from the A-10 or a high-major league would also be welcome.
We now have four teams with automatic bids to the tournament – Cornell, Winthrop, Austin Peay, and Belmont. Also, because of the way the Southern Conference tournament has turned out, Davidson is no longer a shoo-in for an at-large. If you’ve been following college basketball, you probably know that Davidson has lots of wins over bad teams, no wins over good teams, and a few wins/losses against mediocre teams. The only thing keeping them in is their lack of losses against bad teams. Since Elon, College of Charleston, and UNC-Greensboro all upset their opponents, Davidson’s two remaining games would be considered bad losses, thus taking away the strongest attribute of their resume. However, this should not be a problem, since Davidson has been mowing down its opponents.
There was some movement in this seed list due to games played and re-evaluated logic. Biggest movers were Texas Tech (re-evaluation), Notre Dame (re-evaluation), Southern Cal (Big Win over Stanford), Georgetown (Big Win over Louisville), Vanderbilt (Bad loss to Alabama), and Miami (Bad Loss to Florida St.)
1: UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis
2: Texas, Duke, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Georgetown, Xavier, Connecticut
4: Wisconsin, Washington St., Indiana, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Southern Cal, Butler, Marquette
6: Clemson, Arizona, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Michigan St.
8: Arizona St, Baylor, Purdue, Oregon
9: Kansas St, Miami, Gonzaga, Mississippi St.
10: St. Mary’s, Villanova, BYU, Davidson
11: Syracuse, Illinois St., Kentucky, Kent St.
12: Maryland, Dayton, UNLV, Arkansas
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Texas Tech, Massachusetts, Virginia Tech
New Teams IN: UNLV, Dayton, Winthrop
Old Teams OUT: Texas Tech, St. Joseph’s, UNC-Asheville
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: ACC, SEC
4: Big 10
2: MVC, MWC, A-10, WCC
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Seed List through Friday, March 7

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Duke, UNC
2: Memphis, Texas, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Xavier, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
4: Georgetown, Connecticut, Washington St, Indiana
5: Butler, Marquette, Drake, Vanderbilt
6: Arizona, USC, Clemson, Texas A&M
7: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Michigan St., West Virginia
8: Arizona St., Miami, Baylor, Kansas St.
9: Purdue, Oregon, Mississippi St, Gonzaga
10: SMC, BYU, Davidson, Villanova
11: Illinois St, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Kentucky
12: Arkansas, Maryland, St. Joseph’s, Kent St.
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell, New Mexico St.
15: Portland St., UMBC, UNC-Asheville, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St., Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: UNLV, Dayton, Massachusetts, Nebraska
Others Considered: Ohio St., Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St, Wake Forest, Florida, New Mexico
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
5: ACC, SEC
4: Big 10
2: MVC, WCC, A-10
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Seed List through Monday, March 3

That's right, I'm a whole day behind. But I promise it is for a good reason. I decided to go through the steps of the selection process. However, I obviously am not 10 people. Rather, I am one. So first, I made up 4 lists - Team's Key Wins, Team's Record against RPI Top 50/100, Team's record against Pomeroy 50/100, Team's Record Against Colton 50/100. Then, I ran the selection process, if the process only had 4 people, one of whom only looked at the key wins, one of whom only looked at RPI, one of whom only looked at Pomeroy, and one of whom only looked at Colton. Like last time, I ignored conference champions (except for one to make the 12th seed line even). Here's how it turned out:

1: UCLA, Texas, Tennessee, Duke
2: UNC, Memphis, Kansas, Lousiville
3: Stanford, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Xavier
4: Washington St, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Indiana
5: Marquette, Arizona, Clemson, Michigan St.
6: Vanderbilt, USC, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Baylor, Oklahoma, Arizona St, Drake
8: Kansas St., Gonzaga, Miami (FL), Purdue
9: West Virginia, Mississippi St, Oregon, Butler
10: BYU, St. Mary’s, Nebraska, Wake Forest
11: Florida, Syracuse, Villanova, Kentucky
12: UNLV, Arkansas, Davidson, South Alabama
Last 4 Out: Maryland, Illinois St, Oklahoma St, Kent St.
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
6: SEC
5: ACC
4: Big 10
2: MWC, WCC
1: A-10, MVC, SoCon, Sun Belt, Horizon, CUSA

Since this wasn't entirely my opinion (after arranging the lists, it was all a matter of plug-and-chug), I'm not going to list the changes.

For my thoughts about this seed list/process, click the "Read More".

• As expected, the process was quite long, and very tedious. I started working on this Monday night, late, worked all through the morning and afternoon, and evening... so almost 15 hours straight. And yet I may do it again, the day before Selection Sunday. If I do so, I will probably also do my own, and do a bracket.
• I was shocked, really, that the A-10 only got one team in. This showed me that the worst case scenario has occurred - the worst teams in the league beating the best teams, and creating a muddied middle where all teams either have a dismal OOC resume or a dismal in-conference resume.
• Davidson actually made it in as the 45th team, but when going through the seeding procedures was moved to the "Last team in" Slot. I don't think this will happen during the actual selection process. If Davidson is in, then they'll probably be an 11, just because the seeding procedures allow for more "whos better than who" thinking.
• Could the Big East really get 9 teams in? Syracuse and Villanova hold tenuous positions, but I think they could do it. 6 BEast teams in the first 6 lines, which means 6 locks. WV is on the 9-line, and should be in unless they happen to draw Depaul, Provy, SJU, or SHU in the 1st round of the BET and lose in that 1st round.
• As for Syracuse and Villanova - each has winnable regular season games left, and probably should also win their first round game if they want to feel safe (although at this point they could theoretically face each other).
• SEC with 6 teams? Really? This could change easily in the next week and a half, with 3 teams firmly on the bubble.
• We all know that Duke-UNC will probably be a battle for a one seed. Each team, however, needs to pray for Tennessee to fall as much as possible. Otherwise, the Duke-UNC loser will be the team rewarded with Charlotte, not the winner.
• I'm not sure why Arizona St., Nebraska, and Texas A&M don't get any love. Or why Drake, Butler, USA, BYU, Purdue, and UNLV get so much love. Actually, I see a pattern here (ignoring Purdue). Year after year we hear sob stories about mid-majors who got snubbed, or about how such-and-such smaller team would totally own all the major conference teams if they just got the opportunity (and to the East Coast, the MWC might as well be a mid-major conference, even though they are not). Thus, bracketologists start subconsciously boosting mid-majors while devaluing major-conference teams. This fails for one reason: the committee. 4 committee members represent major conferences, and you can sure as shootin' believe that they'll pick another major conference team over a mid-major that could potentially embarrass a school they represent. Of the other 6, some will feel for the other mid-major schools, while the rest will only look out for the best interest of the schools they represent. Because of this division, the mid-majors (plus the MWC) get screwed.
• As for Purdue... I'm not sure how they ended up as an 8. Oh, right... its because they kept failing to advance to the "vote on seeding stage". They'd get selected as one of those 8 by two "people", and then the other two wouldn't. I expect the the Boilermakers will be closer to a 6 on March 16th.

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Thoughts from today

Now that I'm done correcting my earlier mistakes from my seed list, here are my reflections from another Saturday full of college basketball:

I laughed when I saw an ESPN headline saying that the Syracuse loss today to Pittsburgh burst their bubble. That was obviously written by someone who hasn't the faintest idea how weak this years bubble is.

There were, however, several teams who, in my opinion, burst their bubbles today:

• Ohio St., losing at Minnesota
• Nebraska, losing at Oklahoma St. (I believed that they still had very slim hopes, if they could win out)
• George Mason, a team whose bubble burst a couple weeks ago, but still gets talked about
• Stephen F. Austin, whose 3 loss season was starting to get some notice. This is the second horrible loss for the Lumberjacks, however, and their win over Oklahoma probably won't be enough to get them in if they don't win the Southland
• Houston, who was still on the bubble because of their lack of bad wins, lost to East Carolina

Other merely hurt their chances:

• Kent St, fresh off a major BracketBuster win, managed a bad loss to put them back on the bubble
• Florida, who needs to beat Tennessee on Wednesday and Kentucky @ Rupp next Sunday to have a shot, as they lost to fellow bubble team Mississippi St.
• Syracuse, as mentioned earlier
• Wake Forest, who added another not-so-good loss @ GT to a resume that contains quite a few bad ones
• Texas A&M, a normally highly effective team that was held that a shockingly low .58 Points Per Possession in a 37 point effort against Oklahoma, beating their previous low of .72 in a loss to Texas
• Cal, who probably needs a sweep of the LA teams next week after falling to Washington

Other things of note:

• This has been said elsewhere, but you know a team is good when they are down 15 or so points in the second half, and you don't consider the other team to be blowing them out. Such was true of UNC @ BC and Duke @ NC St.
• In the Year of the Weak Bubble, we also seem to have less dominant teams than in previous years. Every good team has a fatal flaw - Duke is too small, UNC can't play defense, Georgetown and Memphis can't shoot Free Throws, Texas is inconsistent, and so on.
• This was emphasized today by a number of upsets and scares. Texas, Kent St., and Vanderbilt all lost, while UNC, Duke, Memphis, Xavier and Drake all had scares against vastly inferior opponents.
• Out of the games I watched today, St. Mary's-Gonzaga was the best, although Gonzaga pulled away to make the end a boring affair. Georgetown-Marquette and Texas-Texas Tech had much more exciting endings.

Since I do not have transportation to Chicago for tomorrow, I am not able to get to the Depaul game. I would do another liveblog, but I don't think that is advisable. Instead, I will just post about the conferences that wrapped up regular-season play today and tomorrow.

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Seed List Through Friday, February 29

I don't have time to do the one-bid conference champions, so I'm going to take a leaf from Schmolik's book and leave them out (they aren't the important ones anyways)

1: Texas, Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA
2: North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Xavier
3: Stanford, Kansas, Notre Dame, Connecticut
4: Wisconsin, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Georgetown
5: Purdue, Marquette, Michigan St, Washington St.
6: Pittsburgh, Southern Cal, Kansas St, Clemson
7: Drake, Baylor, Arizona St, St. Mary’s
8: West Virginia, Gonzaga, Butler, BYU
9: Arizona, Texas A&M, Kent St., Oklahoma
10: Miami (FL), California, Syracuse, Wake Forest
11: Oregon, UNLV, Davidson, Villanova
12: Mississippi St., Maryland, St. Joseph’s, South Alabama
13: Illinois St.
Last Four Out: Florida, UMass, Rhode Island, Kentucky
Conference Breakdown
8: Pac-10, Big East
6: ACC, Big XII
4: Big 10
3: SEC
2: WCC, A-10, MWC, MVC

EDIT: I forgot Oklahoma. They are now in, and I moved Illinois St. out.
EDIT: Wow, mistake after mistake. Illinois St. back in after I realized I was short a team.
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