Saturday, March 8, 2008

Seed List through Friday, March 7

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Duke, UNC
2: Memphis, Texas, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Xavier, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
4: Georgetown, Connecticut, Washington St, Indiana
5: Butler, Marquette, Drake, Vanderbilt
6: Arizona, USC, Clemson, Texas A&M
7: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Michigan St., West Virginia
8: Arizona St., Miami, Baylor, Kansas St.
9: Purdue, Oregon, Mississippi St, Gonzaga
10: SMC, BYU, Davidson, Villanova
11: Illinois St, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Kentucky
12: Arkansas, Maryland, St. Joseph’s, Kent St.
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell, New Mexico St.
15: Portland St., UMBC, UNC-Asheville, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St., Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out:
UNLV, Dayton, Massachusetts, Nebraska
Others Considered: Ohio St., Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St, Wake Forest, Florida, New Mexico
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
4: Big 10
2: MVC, WCC, A-10


Anonymous said...

Texas Tech over UMass? Road wins have to be worth something.

Anonymous said...

This is the most laughable bracket I've ever seen.

Evilmonkeycma said...

I just looked harder at TTU, and you're right... they will probably be out in my next bracket. I was rushing this morning. However, UMass will still not be in. UMass has two wins over bubble teams - Dayton and Syracuse.
Neither of those teams are in the Colton Top 50 - if you are not familiar with that system, following the link on the right.
In addition UMass has 6 losses in the 50-100 range, as well as 1 in the 100+ range. Only three other teams that I currently project in have even 6 losses to teams above 50: Arkansas, Maryland, and St. Joe's. Those are in my last 4 in, and each has a big win (Vandy, UNC, and Xavier, respectively) to their credit. (Of course, for almost any bubble team, you can torture the numbers to make a case for them in or out).

Evilmonkeycma said...

To Anonymous #2: Would you care to elaborate on your reasons for this being the "most laughable bracket"?

I'll give you Texas Tech.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Evilmonkeycma said...

I don't tolerate language in the comment section, so I deleting a post commenting on Notre Dame being ahead of Georgetown. I've been doing this in my non-posted brackets for a couple of weeks, simply because ND had one more Top 50 win.
Bad reasoning - sure. Especially when I went back just nowand listed out the key wins for each. Each had a win over WVU, Cuse, Marquette, and UConn. This leaves ND with KSU and Pitt, and G'town with ND. If they were a few spaces apart, I'd keep ND. However, in this situation, I agree that I should have switched ND and Georgetown.
This is my first full season of doing this, and I'm still working on getting things in order. Constructive criticism is helpful in this regard. Name-calling is not. If you want me to explain my logic, go ahead and ask.

Anonymous said...

U R a joke. do you even watch basketball?
BYU a ten seed? they are top 25 in two polls 22nd and rising in RPI 25-6. thats 5-8 seed stuff right there. and only one team from the mountain west? while you include teams with rpi's way below 50 with losing records in their conferences and below 20 wins? why? just because they played in a harder conference? im sorry, you still gotta win games to show you deserve to dance.

Evilmonkeycma said...

A couple points about polls:
1)Polls and Seed Lists are separate entities. Polls reflect how good a team is, while Seed Lists reflect what a team has done.

2) These are the same polls in which Cornell and Robert Morris are garnering votes. That should tell you something right there about the reliability of the polls.

Now, regarding the Mountain West.
1)The Mountain West as a whole has not played a lot of decent teams. BYU beat a weakened Louisville team at home, UNLV beat Minnesota at home, and New Mexico beat Texas Tech at home. Those are the three best non-conference wins for the whole league. This means that it is hard to adequately compare the MWC to other conferences.
2)One thing you do notice in the MWC is that home-court seems to count more - note the 55 point difference between UNLV@BYU and BYU@UNLV. This indicates that MWC teams cannot do well away from home, which makes me less inclined to take them.
3) Finally, the top teams in the MWC all have bad losses to teams in the bottom part. Unlike most major conference teams, those teams don't have nearly enough good wins to counter those bad losses.

I believe you will be happier with Sunday's list - UNLV is in. However, unless they lose to BYU, any loss in the conference tournament will be a bad loss and probably knock them out.