Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Seed List through Monday, March 3

That's right, I'm a whole day behind. But I promise it is for a good reason. I decided to go through the steps of the selection process. However, I obviously am not 10 people. Rather, I am one. So first, I made up 4 lists - Team's Key Wins, Team's Record against RPI Top 50/100, Team's record against Pomeroy 50/100, Team's Record Against Colton 50/100. Then, I ran the selection process, if the process only had 4 people, one of whom only looked at the key wins, one of whom only looked at RPI, one of whom only looked at Pomeroy, and one of whom only looked at Colton. Like last time, I ignored conference champions (except for one to make the 12th seed line even). Here's how it turned out:

1: UCLA, Texas, Tennessee, Duke
2: UNC, Memphis, Kansas, Lousiville
3: Stanford, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Xavier
4: Washington St, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Indiana
5: Marquette, Arizona, Clemson, Michigan St.
6: Vanderbilt, USC, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Baylor, Oklahoma, Arizona St, Drake
8: Kansas St., Gonzaga, Miami (FL), Purdue
9: West Virginia, Mississippi St, Oregon, Butler
10: BYU, St. Mary’s, Nebraska, Wake Forest
11: Florida, Syracuse, Villanova, Kentucky
12: UNLV, Arkansas, Davidson, South Alabama
Last 4 Out: Maryland, Illinois St, Oklahoma St, Kent St.
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
6: SEC
5: ACC
4: Big 10
1: A-10, MVC, SoCon, Sun Belt, Horizon, CUSA

Since this wasn't entirely my opinion (after arranging the lists, it was all a matter of plug-and-chug), I'm not going to list the changes.

For my thoughts about this seed list/process, click the "Read More".

  • As expected, the process was quite long, and very tedious. I started working on this Monday night, late, worked all through the morning and afternoon, and evening... so almost 15 hours straight. And yet I may do it again, the day before Selection Sunday. If I do so, I will probably also do my own, and do a bracket.
  • I was shocked, really, that the A-10 only got one team in. This showed me that the worst case scenario has occurred - the worst teams in the league beating the best teams, and creating a muddied middle where all teams either have a dismal OOC resume or a dismal in-conference resume.
  • Davidson actually made it in as the 45th team, but when going through the seeding procedures was moved to the "Last team in" Slot. I don't think this will happen during the actual selection process. If Davidson is in, then they'll probably be an 11, just because the seeding procedures allow for more "whos better than who" thinking.
  • Could the Big East really get 9 teams in? Syracuse and Villanova hold tenuous positions, but I think they could do it. 6 BEast teams in the first 6 lines, which means 6 locks. WV is on the 9-line, and should be in unless they happen to draw Depaul, Provy, SJU, or SHU in the 1st round of the BET and lose in that 1st round.
  • As for Syracuse and Villanova - each has winnable regular season games left, and probably should also win their first round game if they want to feel safe (although at this point they could theoretically face each other).
  • SEC with 6 teams? Really? This could change easily in the next week and a half, with 3 teams firmly on the bubble.
  • We all know that Duke-UNC will probably be a battle for a one seed. Each team, however, needs to pray for Tennessee to fall as much as possible. Otherwise, the Duke-UNC loser will be the team rewarded with Charlotte, not the winner.
  • I'm not sure why Arizona St., Nebraska, and Texas A&M don't get any love. Or why Drake, Butler, USA, BYU, Purdue, and UNLV get so much love. Actually, I see a pattern here (ignoring Purdue). Year after year we hear sob stories about mid-majors who got snubbed, or about how such-and-such smaller team would totally own all the major conference teams if they just got the opportunity (and to the East Coast, the MWC might as well be a mid-major conference, even though they are not). Thus, bracketologists start subconsciously boosting mid-majors while devaluing major-conference teams. This fails for one reason: the committee. 4 committee members represent major conferences, and you can sure as shootin' believe that they'll pick another major conference team over a mid-major that could potentially embarrass a school they represent. Of the other 6, some will feel for the other mid-major schools, while the rest will only look out for the best interest of the schools they represent. Because of this division, the mid-majors (plus the MWC) get screwed.
  • As for Purdue... I'm not sure how they ended up as an 8. Oh, right... its because they kept failing to advance to the "vote on seeding stage". They'd get selected as one of those 8 by two "people", and then the other two wouldn't. I expect the the Boilermakers will be closer to a 6 on March 16th.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

huh? can you really make a case for notre dame to be on a higher line than georgetown? even if the hoyas lost today, they still would've been a 3 seed; they'll be a 2 seed if they make the big east final