Because I like jumping around... the Big 10

I’m now in the hotel lounge, watching the Wisconsin - Michigan game, and thought it would be an appropriate time to discuss the Big 10. (Note: I finished this around 7:18, and thus could reference all of the day’s Big 10 action). I'll eventually get around to doing all the conferences - just give me about a week or two.

Highly Likely:

Ohio St.: They looked like the team to beat in the Big 10 – at least until West Virginia wiped the floor with them. As it is, the wins over Miami (FL), Butler, and Notre Dame will look very good, probably good enough to get them in with a mediocre Big 10 campaign.

Illinois: As bad as they looked last night, they did beat a good Purdue team. I’m really not sure what to say about the Illini – they beat up Mizzou, and they almost beat Clemson. I would venture to say they aren’t as good as the 2-line I put them at, but they could make it there based on what they’ve done so far.

Purdue: The loss to Illinois was yet another wake-up call to the young Boilermaker team. Although they scored a dominant win over Davidson, they haven’t yet shown they can play consistently with the best. I present to you the destruction put on at Mackey by Duke. I fear for Purdue going into the Big 10 season – if they can’t win at Mackey, how can they hope to win at Kohl?

Michigan: Although they are projected to fare poorest of the five teams I have listed here, they had arguably the best out-of-conference performance of any of the four. Any time you beat Duke AND UCLA, you’re going to get some respect. While the loss to Maryland took some of the luster off, they still should get in, even if they go 8-10 in the Big 10.

Michigan St.: They beat Texas, and they’ve only lost to Maryland and UNC. That same Maryland team that beat Michigan. Perhaps Maryland isn’t so bad. Anyhow, they’ve also ended the undefeated run of Minnesota, and I they should be able to pick up home wins over the Big 10 powers – enough that I’d give them a fairly high likelihood of getting in.

Likely In:

Minnesota: I’ve reversed my thinking on Minnesota vs. Northwestern. While Minnesota did beat Louisville, and was undefeated until today’s earlier loss to Michigan St., they still don’t have that much to support their at-large candidacy, especially if Louisville’s weak season continues into the Big East schedule. Should they break 20 wins, however, it would be tough to keep them out.

Likely Out:

Wisconsin: When all you can hang your hat on out-of-conference is that you played Texas tough, you’ve not done well. However, they kicked off the Big 10 season right with the win over Michigan, and if they can pick up a couple of big wins, they could make it to the tournament.

Iowa: Iowa’s signature win is Kansas St. They have losses against Boston College and Drake, neither of which I project in at the moment. They have the slowest tempo of play in DI basketball, which will score them some upsets, but I’m sure they still won’t do very well in the Big 10 season. Thus, I don't see them making the tournament.

Northwestern: Sure, they haven’t had terrible losses – Butler may be a top 15 team, and Stanford is undefeated so far. But their one decent win – against Florida St. – may not make the playoffs. And that loss today against the Nittany Lions looks bad. I don’t think the Big Ten can get more than 7 teams in, and Northwestern needs to beat one of the better teams to have a hope.

Penn St.: When I started formulating this post a few days ago, I didn’t even have Penn St. as a possibility. I mean, we are talking a team whose best OOC win was against a struggling Georgia Tech team that may not end up with a top-100 RPI. But their win at home against Northwestern led me to look again, and I suppose the losses aren’t so bad that they necessarily couldn’t make it. But that won’t be possible with the 5-13 Big 10 record I am currently projecting.

Definitely Out – Indiana
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30th Wrap-up, 31st games of import

So, I was hoping to skip a night, avoid paying for hotel internet, and pick it back up this afternoon at home. But I'm travelling with my brother, and he's come down with the flu, so I'll be ringing in the New Year in Lexington, hopefully while watching UNC's perfect season go down the drains - no offense Tarheel fans, but I'd like to think that you'll have some competition for the title this year.

Here's what happened last night:

Illinois 71, Purdue 67 OT
Neither of these teams looked very good, but at a packed Mackey Arena, Illinois showed that they were the better team. Despite having 16 fewer free throws, (27-11) and a phantom foul on Purdue’s last (real) shot of regulation, Illinois managed to pull out a game that was back and forth. One thing I noticed last night is that Purdue still looked young – making bad decisions and so forth. I think they’ll probably lose a game or two that they shouldn’t – which is why Sunday they’ll be moved out of the top four seed lines.

Arkansas 96, Oklahoma 88
I thought this might happen. Oklahoma was looking ahead to the tough Big XII schedule. Arkansas, who is pretty much dead in the water in the weak SEC, is looking to revenge last year’s loss in Norman. I still think Oklahoma will snag a #1 seed – they'll still do very well, and at this point, the other options are 3 Big East teams, or a 2/2 split between the Big East and ACC. However, Blake Griffin will have to step it up in-conference

Butler 72, UAB 68; Dayton 66, George Mason 62
UAB scheduled a tough team, Dayton scheduled a decent team. UAB lost, and still has nothing to show for it, except for the A+ in effort that they’ve received all year. Dayton wins, and lives to see another day.

Wright St. 71, Cleveland State 62; Southern Miss 78, Ole Miss 59; San Diego 64, Mississippi St 61 OT; Chattanooga 99, Niagara 84
Goodbye Cleveland St., Goodbye Ole Miss, Goodbye Mississippi St, Goodbye Niagara. Your outside shots of making the tournament? Gone. The Vikings may still be on the bubble in March, but I doubt they’ll make it in. Moreover, the two Mississippi losses make the SEC a weaker conference, negating the benefits of the Arkansas win. The Niagara loss just assures the MAAC of being a one-bid conference.

BYU 74, Tulsa 68
BYU is known as a team that can’t win on the road. They did here however – probably the reason they scheduled this game.

And tonight's games - a pretty good slate.

North Carolina @ Nevada
North Carolina, showing off their “Anyone, anywhere” philosophy. When I saw this game on their schedule, I mentally noted this as one of a few places the Tarheels might stumble. I still believe this. So far, UNC’s three closest games have been Notre Dame (the best team they’ve played), UPenn (the first game of the season), and UC-Santa Barbara (their only other road game). I expect that the Wolfpack faithful will prove a bit fiercer than those of UCSB.

Gonzaga @ Utah
Gonzaga is on a two game losing streak, but they are still one of the best teams around. However, a loss at a tough Utah team could be devastating to their high seed hopes. Utah, meanwhile, is playing for their lives here. They have almost no shot at winning the Mountain West Tournament, and their projected resume leaves a lot to be desired. A win here would be necessary to even get them back in the tournament discussion.

UNLV @ Louisville
UNLV rocked Arizona at home, could they do the same to Louisville on the road? Probably not, since UNLV enjoys one of the largest home court advantages. But you never know - a win here would be a boon to the Rebels.

Evansville @ Illinois St.
Another matchup of top teams from the Valley. Evansville showed that they are real against Drake. If the Aces can win here, they can relax for a bit.

Iowa @ Ohio St.; Michigan St. @ Minnesota; Northwestern @ Penn St.; Wisconsin @ Michigan
The Big 10 is probably one of the biggest question marks at this point. This might help clear the waters (or muddy them more).

EDIT: Bother. I was just looking at Arkansas (something I should have done substantially earlier), and I was shocked. They might be able to parley the Oklahoma win into a tournament bid. Also, Michigan St. - Minnesota was 2-2 after 6:30. Oh Big 10, how I hate you.
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29th Wrap-up

Georgetown 74, Connecticut 63:
So, I'm out visiting relatives this week. Imagine my dismay when, of all times, they pick 7:00 for dinner. 7:00 - the one time that I pleaded they not schedule anything for. I dashed back to the hotel after dinner, and went to the bar, only to discover that the hotel doesn't get ESPN2. Major lack of planning here. *Winces* I'll get my taste of elite Big East basketball soon. In any case - for all you out there that doubted Hoya might (Ahem, CJ), here's your proof, in Hartford. I'm actually worried for my Irish now - no student section + no South Bend support (since it is a weeknight) = a quiet JACC = Georgetown headed for a victory.

Davidson 79, Charleston 75
Briefly considered ditching the family to attend this game. Wish I had. The hotel doesn't get the U either, and I was tired enough not to go searching for it. I spent the final 2 minutes of this game yelling at the computer screen to update faster, especially when Lovedale fouled out. Davidson should go undefeated in conference, but here's a question. Does the College of Charleston have a shot at making the tournament? They could make a similar argument to Davidson of last year (well, not undefeated, but only losses to Davidson is almost the same thing).

Memphis 60, Cincinnati 45
I talked about this yesterday. Memphis stays in the bubble hunt. Cincinnati still gasping for air. Note: if not for a last second free throw by Cincy, each team would have scored the same amount of points in the first and second half.

Santa Clara 83, Belmont 80
How cruel, for Santa Clara to defeat such a nice Belmont team. Belmont better be careful, or they may take Navy's spot on the 16 line. On a related note, how unlucky is Belmont? If you ignore the 14 point loss at Pitt, they have lost 4 games by a total of 8 points - 2 to Austin Peay, 1 to Jacksonville, 2 to Tennessee, and 3 here to Santa Clara. *Wince* I wouldn't want to be the team matched up against them in the first round.

Baylor 79, Portland St 66
Well... I'm sure you can find something positive about this loss. But Portland St. should probably just focus on not losing in the Big Sky.

CSU-Northridge defeats CSU-Fullerton
So, I'm not staying up just to see the final score of this game, which is 80-58 with 5 to go. Just know that a CSU-Northridge win @ CSU-Fullerton puts them firmly in the challenger spot.

Cornell 89, Boston U 59
America East, you are the weak link in the chain. For your crimes, you are relegated to the 16-seed line.

I'll try to wake up early and do previews for the next two days. No promises, though. I think you'll live if I don't.
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28th Wrap, 29th Games of Import

Here's what happened last night:

Evansville 76, Drake 65:
Well, we now know that Evansville *should* challenge for the MVC crown. I know, I know yada yada they can't keep it up for the whole year. But thats what they said about Drake LAST year. However, the games at SIU and Drake could be interesting.

Florida St. 82, Western Kentucky 69:
Florida St. keeps their hopes alive. In fact, at this point, the Noles have a pretty good resume. But, as a wise blogger said last year, someone has to win the games, and someone has to lose the games, and the rest of the season looks not at all promising for Florida St . Meanwhile, Western Kentucky's slim at-large hopes have faded.

Stanford 111, Texas Tech 66: What a blow-out! Stanford is now 9-0! With... 0 good wins. Sheesh. Schedule some better OOC teams, especially when your conference has two teams that are going to drag you down.

Iowa St. 71, Houston 67: A second bad loss for Houston probably puts them out of reach of the tournament. Also, how much do the Cyclones wish they had that Hawaii win now? 9-3 and only one bad loss would have been manageable entering the conference schedule.

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69: Indiana is bad. This is a very disappointing loss.

Finally! After a long hiatus, we have a day with several great games on tap.

Georgetown @ Connecticut: The game of the night – Georgetown begins a run of three difficult games, which will help determine whether they are deserving of the #1 spot in the Pomeroy Rankings (actually, UNC probably won’t hold that spot for a few more games, simply because they’ve been playing their back-ups so much). I really don’t have anything to say here, other than noting that it should be a great game, and we’ll evaluate these two tomorrow.

Cincinnati @ Memphis: If you just look at the names involved in this game, then you probably won’t think much of this game. But the fact of the matter is that Cincinnati and Memphis are not at all safe. Cincinnati has decent wins over UAB and UNLV, but they are still headed for a pretty bad conference record – besides the free wins over Depaul, Rutgers, and St. John’s, I wouldn’t count on anything. As for Memphis – while they haven’t had any bad losses, they haven’t had any decent wins either.

Temple @ Villanova: This game will determine whether Villanova had a good non-conference season or a bad one. With a win, they can be perceived as a team that beat everyone they were supposed to, and lost to the only elite team they played. With a loss, then Nova will be seen as underachievers. Temple would like this game very much. Two straight losses have made the Tennessee win a distant memory, and a 3-3 road mark isn’t going to wow anyone. A win over Villanova would right their ship, and put them in position to snag a tournament bid with a decent, upset-less conference run.

Davidson @ College of Charleston: Davidson has 9 days to sit and think about their blowout loss against Purdue. This isn’t a bad team, and they’ve got the win over West Virginia to prove it. However, this College of Charleston team is going to be the best chance of losing in-conference this year. Only one other SoCon team besides these two is in the top 200 – Western Carolina, who Davidson gets at home.

Portland St. @ Baylor: Portland St. might have a viable shot at a 12 seed if they can get a win here.

Boston @ Cornell: This game will probably help decide whether America East or Cornell is placed on the 16 seed line. That’s about the extent of why this game is important

Hopefully I'm run through all of the conferences over the next few days, but don't count on it. I'll be travelling the next few days, so I don't know what will happen. Hopefully I'll be able to make a post about the nine games I've identified as important during the time that I am away.

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First Brackets are Always Most Painful

So, I went through today, and played out how I thought the rest of the season was going to go. And then I did this whole prediction thing. Now, some things may seem wacky. Others, just right. Okay, a lot of things will seem wacky. I dare you to challenge my logic. Ask me why I put someone above someone else. All you can do is require me to clarify my thinking, and possibly change how I think someone will fall.

Reminder: This is a projection out to the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended today.

1: North Carolina (ACC), Connecticut (Big East), Oklahoma (Big XII), Pittsburgh
2: Texas, Georgetown, Duke, Illinois (Big 10)
3: Purdue, Clemson, Michigan, UCLA (Pac-10)
4: Tennessee (SEC), Kansas, West Virginia, Arizona
5: Ohio St., Missouri, Kentucky, Arizona St
6: Butler (Horizon), Michigan St., Syracuse, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: Baylor, Xavier (A-10), Villanova, Notre Dame
8: Washington, Washington St, Wake Forest, Miami (FL)
9: California, Davidson (Southern), Northwestern, Creighton (MWC)
10: BYU, Minnesota, Louisville, Memphis (C-USA)
11: Utah St. (WAC), Maryland, Florida, Evansville
12: Dayton, Cleveland St., Kansas St., UNLV (MWC)
13: Miami (OH) (MAC), Portland St. (Big Sky), Niagara (MAAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
14: Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial), Virginia Military Institute (Big South), Lamar (Southland), Jacksonville St. (Ohio Valley)
15: North Dakota St. (Summit), Pacific (Big West), Albany (American East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Cornell (Ivy), Morgan St. (MEAC), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), Navy (Patriot), Texas Southern (SWAC)

Note: I project that UNLV will win the Mountain West Tournament on their home floor, since they do ridiculously well at home.

First Five Out: LSU, Illinois St., Marquette, Boston College, Southern Cal
Next Five Out: St. Mary's, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, Stanford, San Diego St

Bracket
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December 27th Wrap-up

Running behind today. Hopefully will get a seed list out later, as well as finishing up the one-bids.

LSU 64, Washington St. 52
Alright, I was wrong. Happy? At halftime, these two teams had combined for 10-40 shooting. Pathetic. As a friend of mine said, this is what happens when you combine bad shooters and good defense. Bah – LSU gets their win, Wazzu gets relegated to the “Haven’t beaten anyone” bin.

Louisville 82, UAB 62
Louisville gets a much-needed decent win, after failing against Minnesota and Western Kentucky. UAB fails in that same endeavor. The Blazers really needs a win over Butler now to have a shot at making the tournament, which they will probably still need, since the conference tournament runs through Memphis.

West Virginia 76, Ohio St. 48
Holy crap. Either Lighty was that important, or Bob Huggins is an excellent coach. Seriously – Ohio St. was a top 15 team, that was heading for a spot in the top two lines. But a top team does NOT LOSE AT HOME by 30 points. But what worries me more is that the Buckeyes just stopped near the end of the game. This win also establishes West Virginia as a team on the rise in the Big East – not something that anyone in the conference wanted to hear.

Portland St. 63, Texas Southern 55; St. Mary’s 87, San Jose St. 78
Two games that were much tougher than they needed to be. But, both of these West Coast Wonders pulled it out.
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One-Bids (part one)

Ivy – After having at least one decent team for years, the Ivy League is having a down year. Only Cornell seems to be having any flashes of decency, almost winning at St. Joe’s, and keeping it reasonable at Minnesota and Syracuse. But losing by 15 to IU? 11 to St. John’s? Big Red should win the conference easily, but expect nothing higher than a 15.

Patriot – While American was an early favorite to shock major conference teams, it just hasn’t happened, and they’ve been pounded by Oklahoma and Georgetown. Moreover, Navy has looked surprisingly solid, almost winning at Villanova. Lehigh has also been a bit of a surprise – ranked 206 in the Pomeroy Rankings. However, it should be noted that that has come against the 322nd schedule, so they may be a bit worse. I’m still going to call this a two horse race, with the winner garnering a 15-seed and a tournament beatdown.

Southern - I hear you out there. “But Bryce! If Davidson wins out, and loses in the conference championship, then surely the Southern Conference will be a two bid conference.” And so it would be. But Davidson won’t beat Duke, and they won’t have a big win on their record. Moreover, if they don't get the autobid, then they’ll have a bad loss. That’s why the SoCon is still a one bid conference. However, Davidson should have nothing to fear – the only team with a halfway decent chance of beating the Wildcats is the College of Charleston, and for the first time in forever, the conference tourney isn't in Charleston - its in Chattanooga.

Big South – There has been a changing of the guard in the Big South. UNC-Asheville is subpar minus Kenny George. High Point has fallen off their role of perennial runner-ups. And Winthrop, banner-waver of the conference, is a woeful 1-9, and ranked 301 in the Pomeroy rankings – a far cry from 06-07, when they ran the conference, and defeated Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament. So who does that leave? Liberty and VMI. Liberty is about 10 points away from an excellent 12-1 record. Instead, they are 9-4, with no shot of an at-large bid. VMI started out the year with that upset over Kentucky, and continue to play their up-tempo style of catch, shoot, and little defense. Expect one of these two to be playing in March.

NEC, MEAC, SWAC – Lets not kid ourselves. The representatives of these conferences are headed for 16 seeds. It will be whatever school decides to hang tough and win the conference tournament. I’m not even going to attempt to predict these. (Well, the NEC rep might make 15. If, like, the A-Sun, Big South, and Southland Champions all come from the bottom of the league.) (Thus I draw irate hate mail from Mt. St. Mary’s fans, despite their 0-2 start to conference play).

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3 Day Plan

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday:
Fairfield @ UConn – Not really important. Just the ONLY game scheduled over those three days.

Saturday 27th:
West Virginia @ Ohio St. – West Virginia doesn’t have that signature win yet, and could pick it up here. A win @ OSU (the same Ohio St. team that beat Notre Dame on a neutral court) would lift the Mountaineers to fill the void left by Louisville. Ohio St, on the other hand, has an inside track to a 1 or 2 seed. So long as they keep winning, they should be fine.

UAB @ Louisville – Louisville needs a game to get back on track, after the tough losses to WKU and Minnesota. UAB, however, needs this win a bit more desperately. Without it, they’re going to have a really hard time making it to the tournament.

Washington St. @ LSU – What? You still think LSU is for real? You still think they have a shot at making the tournament? Here, let Wazzu dispel those illusions for you.

Since we have a two-day spot with no games, I think now would be an appropriate time to look at where we stand in terms of March. Since this (supposedly) requires looking at all 344 teams, I will be dividing this up into nine segments:
1. The Definite One-Bids
2. Western 1-4 bids (WCC/WAC/MWC)
3. Central 1-4 bids (Horizon/MVC/MAC)
4. Eastern 1-4 bids (A-10/C-USA/MAAC)
5. Weak Power Conferences (Pac-10/SEC)
6. Big East
7. Big 10
8. Big XII
9. ACC
I reserve the right to combine the last four. This may last through the playing of more games, but I'll try to get them all completed. Hopefully a bracket will get out? Who knows.
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Let-down Games

First, this week’s blogger’s top 25. Yea, go ahead and ridicule me for Maryland/Michigan. But I see nothing wrong with them.

So what were the ramifications of last night?

Portland St. 77, Gonzaga 70:
This wasn’t a game Gonzaga was supposed to lose. They were supposed to win the rest of their games (except maybe Tennessee), and get a top 3 seeding in the tournament. However, if you pop over to the bracket matrix, you can see that those brackets updated today are showing the Zags at a 4 or 5 seed. On the flip side, Portland St. is now looking at a respectable 13 seed, provided they win out except for Baylor. If they do manage to beat Baylor, then they’ll be looking at an 12, or perhaps an 11 with a respectable Bracketbuster victim – not bad for a team that was Jayhawk fodder last year. In any case, any Big Sky loss will be a bad one that will take them out of the running, so don’t expect a surprise two-bid conference.

Butler 74, Xavier 65:
Are you kidding me? If this doesn’t get Butler respect, nothing will. Combined with the beatdown suffered against Duke, expect Xavier to fall out of the public consciousness for a while – at least until they pound Virginia on the road in a week and a half. This will hurt Xavier’s eventual tournament seeding, but Butler is still a respectable team to lose to – better quality than anyone else in the A-10, anyways.

Arizona 84, Kansas 67:
Kansas misses another opportunity to shine. They still have opportunities in Tennessee and Michigan St., but failing those they’ll be on the bubble come March. Arizona on the other hand can probably breathe a bit easier now. Out of the mysterious Pac-10 teams (UA, UW, WSU, USC, Cal), they are probably in the best shape.

Texas 74, Wisconsin 69; Illinois 75, Missouri 59:
I really don’t have anything particularly insightful to say about either of these games. Texas continues to show that they are a top team. Wisconsin continues to give us reasons to be wary. Illinois gets a win to be proud of. Missouri fails (again) to get a win to be proud of.

UMBC 66, Nebraska 64:
When Nebraska beat Creighton earlier this year, I thought that Nebraska had a shot to make it to the tournament for the first time in 11 years. Last year they made the NIT as a 1-seed, so perhaps this was their shot. Now, however, with losses to Oregon St. and UMBC, they’re probably done (although, as Kentucky showed last year, power-conference teams can do anything with a strong conference run).

Iona 67, Hofstra 64:
You just can’t lose a game at home to an inferior opponent when you’re leading by 4 with a minute to go. Though Hofstra hadn’t beaten any quality opponents, they were still in line for the “we haven’t had too many bad losses card”. That play is now gone.

Siena 71, Buffalo 60:
Buffalo probably didn’t have a shot before this game, and this game might have sealed the deal. They’d need a pretty incredible run, plus a decent Bracketbuster game, to have any shot at an at-large. Meanwhile, Siena keeps chugging along.

Stanford 77, Santa Clara 69; St. Mary’s 74, Pacific 65; Niagara 83, St. Bonaventure 65:
Although not the highest level of opponent, each team picks up a road win here, which will be looked at come March. For St. Mary’s, this is the 7th straight win, all away from Moraga, including avenging last year’s Bracketbuster loss to Kent St. For Niagara, this is the 4th straight road win, important for this Purple Eagle team barely hanging on to tournament aspirations.

I will be travelling over the next few days, so I’m not sure how much of an Internet connection I’ll have. So I’m going to try to get ahead for the next few days. I’ll be posting those later when I get finished with them.
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Extended Absence

My (probably non-existent readers):

I am sorry for my extended absence from this blog. As of now, I am returning, and I plan to break down each game with some modicum of importance each day. As the non-conference season comes to a close, I will also be checking in on each conference, and giving my predictions.

So, for today:

Butler @ Xavier: Two mid-major teams that will make the tournament. This is a battle for seeding, and for national respect. Xavier is looking to rebound after their blowout loss to Duke, while Butler is still searching for that win to hang their hat on. Winner gets a spot in the top 25 next week (barring embarrassing losses).

Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis): Right now, Illinois has its road win over Vanderbilt, and a tough home loss (by two) to Clemson, while Missouri has a neutral court win over USC and a loss to Xavier. Both seem to be in prime position for a 6-9 seed, although with strong pushes could make it even higher. That push has to begin tonight.

Texas @ Wisconsin: Texas is acting the same way they did last year - beating some top teams, losing to others, and winning all the games they should. This game will determine whether they are close to a 3-4 or a 6-7. Wisconsin needs this win badly - their best win was against Virginia Tech (who will struggle to make the NIT). On the other side, they really haven't had bad losses, but without a win here, they'll need a pretty solid run in a surprisingly strong Big 10 to get off the bubble.

Kansas @ Arizona: Arizona and Kansas are definitely on the bubble right now - Arizona by virtue of their inability to win on the road (see: UNLV, TAMU), and Kansas because of their loss to UMass in KC (and lack of major wins). While each team may be on the right side of the bubble, a win here would be nice.

Buffalo @ Siena: Buffalo is in the logjam atop the MAC East, and as long as Evansville continues to do well, has nothing to fear from that loss. A win here would continue them on their path to an at-large bid. Siena was thought to be vying for an at-large bid this year, if for some reason (Niagara) they didn't win the MAAC, but right now they essentially need to win out (except for the championship) to snag an at-large (a feat that would include a win at Phog!).

St. Mary's @ Pacific: Both teams would really like to win this game. St. Mary's needs this win to keep it on track for an at-large bid to the tournament, while Pacific, an early frontrunner in the Big West Conference, is looking for one of those prized 13 seeds (well, prized for one-bid conferences, anyways).

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Its that time of year again

Yes, I know I've been a slacker. Duke and UCLA are already 2-0, and I've yet to make my first post of the year. Forgive me - I've had a stressful past few weeks.

Thus, despite my best intentions, I did not manage to get out a preseason bracket. I could have done a half-assed job, and presented it to you, but you don't deserve that. Therefore, I chose not to do one.

I will try to give my take on the important games of the night (as determined by me). I will not publish a bracket until mid-December at earliest, but mid-January at latest.

Also - do any of you remember the old buildabracket.net website? I remember it being pretty cool, with the different font colors representing how confidently they could be projected into the bracket, the death days of the various teams (the point at which it required a major miracle to get back into the postseason talk), the phoenixes (previously dead teams that have resurrected). I'm thinking about starting this back up - I don't think I'm violating any laws, since I'm neither profiting, nor were the ideas copyrighted. In addition, I'd like to do it because I thought they had a good thing going, and then they quit on it. So be looking for that.

Anyways, moving on to tonights games:

Rider vs. St. Joseph's - By all rights, Rider should have made the tournament last year, but got knocked off by the other decent MAAC team. Now, the elder Thompson graduated, but if Rider can start off strong with a win, there may be a push for a two-bid MAAC. Sounds crazy, right?

American @ Oklahoma - The darling semi-unknown midmajor, American Eagles, begin the season off the right way with a top fifteen team. There should be plenty of scoring - Oklahoma is a bruising inside team, while American prefers to pick off 3s from the perimeter.

Marist @ Rutgers - Burning question: Will Rutgers do anything this year? I mean, they'll finish ahead of USF, to be sure, but this game should be a good indicator of whether either team will amount to anything. If this game is close, the answer is no.

Stanford @ Yale - Notable only in location. Maybe the RPI is getting to coaches?

Missouri St. @ Auburn - Two unknown quantities for this season that could find themselves on the bubble come March. Winner gets a boost.

Also, some predictions for the year:

1. Davidson will not be as good as expected. The loss of their PG is just too great, even for Stephan Curry.

2. UNC will win the ACC by at least two games.

3. At least one of the Big East Big Four (UConn, Louisville, Pitt, ND) will suffer a devastating injury, which will have a heavy impact on seeding (like Pitt of last year).

4. The SWAC will continue to be bad. Like, less than 10 DI Non-conference wins bad.

5. NJIT will become a story if it continues its losing streak.

6. The WCC, MVC, and A-10 will be the only non-Big 6 conferences to get multiple bids.

7. The Big East will have 10 teams in the tournament or on the bubble come March.

8. The Big 10 and Pac-10 will both have a powerhouse or two, and a terrible remainder of the conference.

9. Stephen F. Austin will go undefeated, and lose in the second round of the tourney.

10. #1 seeds - UNC, UConn, UCLA, Pitt.

11. National Champions - UConn - No justification, just blatant Big East homerism. (Also, I think that Hansborough will be unpleasantly shocked by Thabeet - really, when does Hansborough have to go up against a big guy).

12. Purdue will sneak up on everyone... again.

13. I will lose sleep and fall behind on work due to this blog (free point for me!).

13 seems like a reasonable number.
Read more!

New Beginnings

Over this past year, I'll be talking through my thoughts about college basketball with a couple of my friends, although you rarely got to see what I was thinking. They, however, have decided to take it upon themselves to create their own blog, with a focus on basketball analysis. Starting after the Championship Game I will be joining them. My bracketology will remain over here, with the promise that everything that only pertains to bracketology (which teams are more deserving, as well as seed lists and brackets) will stay over here.

Here is a link to their website: ndirish2010.blogspot.com

I hope you will continue to read next year.
Read more!

So Basically, This Blog Is Done for the Year

I thought about posting previews for the tournament games... but I didn't.
I thought about posting thoughts about the games... but I didn't.

So I suppose I'll lay this to rest until late October.

And next year, I'll post more consistently, and more in-depth.
And I may try to post something AFTER Selection Sunday.
Read more!

Just looking over my projected bracket

I noticed that I posted the wrong.

I predicted two first round matchups:

Stanford-Cornell
Purdue-Baylor
Read more!

Full Disclosure

I fail again.
Out of 53 brackets this year over at the Bracket Matrix, I finished (according to the Parrish Rubric) 49th - ahead of James Worthy, Jim Colton, RPI Forecast, and Sports Projections.

Here's my Breakdown:
Teams Correct: 63
I missed Kentucky and St. Joe's (my 1st and 3rd teams out). I had in Arizona St. and Ohio St.

I was personally shocked that Arizona St. missed, but I suppose it was to be expected with their weak non-conference schedule and whatnot. However, I've heard a rumor that their RPI of 82 was the factor that kept them out. If so, then obviously the committee sees the actual RPI - something that I had been told was false. Furthermore, this would indicate that this committee took a big look at the RPI numbers - something that I would disagree with.

No complaints on Kentucky over Ohio St. - I was thinking about switching this, but I belived that the fact the Kentucky lost to Georgia in the SEC tourney would be enough keep them out. I suppose that this is a situation where I should have looked harder at the RPI.

Seeds Correct: 31
I got 11 1's, 2's, 3's correct. (missed on Xavier)
I got 6 15's and 16's correct. (I missed Portland St. and American)
Other than that:
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: 4
Drake/Clemson: 5
Southern Cal: 6
Oregon/Arkansas: 9 - I'm quite proud of these two, as I got much hate from people over my seeding for both of these.. only positive in my whole seed list.
Temple: 12
Winthrop/Oral Roberts: 13
Cornell, Boise St., CSU-Fullerton: 14

Seeds within 1 line: 46
Xavier - Me: 4, Them: 3
ND - Me: 4, Them: 5
WSU - Me: 5, Them: 4
West Virginia - Me: 5, Them: 6
Oklahoma - Me: 7, Them: 6
Purdue - Me: 7, Them: 6
Gonzaga - Me: 8, Them: 7
St. Mary's - Me: 11, Them: 10
South Alabama - Me: 11, Them: 10
San Diego - Me: 12, Them: 13
George Mason - Me: 13, Them: 12
Western Kentucky - Me: 13, Them: 12
Siena - Me: 14, Them: 13
Portland St. - Me: 15, Them: 16
American - Me: 16, Them: 15

This leaves 17 teams I missed badly on seeding.

Marquette: Me: 3, Them: 6 - I'm not quite sure why they dropped so low. In retrospect, I can see why Xavier should have been swapped with Marquette on the seed list, and possibly moving them below ND, but I maintain that Marquette has a better resume than Pitt.

Butler: Me: 5, Them: 7 - This one seems pretty clear to me why they were lower than expected. Throughout the year, people noticed that Butler had hardly any good wins. However, the popular consensus was that Butler would get a boost because it was evident that they had attempted to schedule good teams. Obviously, this was not the case.

Vanderbilt: Me: 6, Them: 4 - If I hadn't counted their loss their to Alabama so much, they might have been a 5. I don't know on this one - I think its possible that they got a gift. Other than West Virginia and Butler, I really don't see anyone above them on the seed list that I would have pushed them above.

Indiana: Me: 6, Them: 8 - They might have gotten hosed - however, looking back, I should have put Oklahoma ahead of them. This would have made Indiana a 7 (within one seed line) and made Oklahoma just right. I really should have gone through my seed list a second time.

Texas A&M: Me: 7, Them: 9 - I don't know. Maybe I just overrate Big XII teams.

Michigan St: Me: 7, Them: 5 - This one, I can see. I really screwed up on Michigan St - Undervaluing their good wins, overvaluing their bad losses.

Davidson: Me: 8, Them: 10 - See bit about Butler. The committee apparently doesn't care whether you tried to schedule hard, just if you did anything about it.

Arizona: Me: 8, Them: 10 - Behind Oregon? This I don't understand - Not the seeding, but the relative order.

Kansas St./Baylor: Me: 9, Them: 11 - Further evidence that I overrate Big XII teams. I'll need to remember this for next year. I think that there was no Big XII rep on the committee, so that may have been a factor.

Miami (FL): Me: 10, Them: 7 - I don't understand this one either. The Bracket Matrix average was 9, so it shows that I wasn't alone.

BYU: Me: 10, Them: 8
UNLV: Me: 11, Them: 8 - The committee thought more highly of the MWC than I thought

Mississippi St: Me: 10, Them: 8 - This one I really don't understand. Their best win was Arkansas, and they had losses against UGA and SIU. Perhaps Conference tourney losses don't hurt that much?

Villanova: Me: 10, Them: 12 - My Big East bias, possibly

Georgia: Me: 12, Them: 14 - I'm impressed here. I thought that the committee would be lazy, and merely sub Georgia in for another major conference team. Instead, they made up a full bracket, with Georgia in at a reasonable seed. Kudos to the committee.

Kent St: Me: 12, Them: 9 - I really don't understand this one. Kent St. has a very similar profile to Butler - if Butler had 3 losses to teams outside the top 200. I'll have to look at this one more closely.

So, in short:
1) The committee doesn't care if you tried to schedule well and failed (Butler and Davidson).
2) However, they do care if you didn't try to schedule well (Arizona St.)
3) If you are a Big 6 team without committee representation, prepare to be underseeded. (Big XII)
4) Sunday surprises will be accounted for properly. (Georgia)
5) I should back away from my seed list, and then come back to it. If a team doesn't feel right, get them out (Kentucky, Ohio St.)
6) Don't listen to what popular opinions say (only 19 bracketologists had Oregon in).

Final Note: I cannot confirm or deny the following. However, it appears that Joe Lunardi may have switched Villanova and Virginia Tech at 5:50 - AFTER ESPN got their copy of the brackets. This is supported by the fact that earlier in the afternoon, Nova was 3rd out, and VT was 2nd in. If this is true, this seems quite dishonest. If someone has evidence that this did or did not happen, I would appreciate it.
Read more!

Bracket - Just for Kicks - 10 Minutes

Teams moved to fulfill Bracket Requirements
UP: Villanova, USC, BYU
DOWN: Clemson, Baylor, Oregon


Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – American (Patriot)
9 – Arkansas (SEC)
8 - Arizona
Tampa, Florida
5 – Southern Cal
12 – Kent St. (MAC)
13 – Siena (MAAC)
4 - Connecticut
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Cornell (IVY)
11 – St. Mary’s
6 – West Virginia
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 - Purdue
10 - Baylor
15 – Maryland-Baltimore County (America East)
2 – Duke

Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA (Pac-10)
16 – Northwestern St. (Southland)
9 – BYU
8 - Gonzaga
Denver, Colorado
5 – Drake (MVC)
12 – Temple (A-10)
13 – Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
4 – Notre Dame
Washington, D.C.
3 - Marquette
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Ohio St.
6 - Vanderbilt
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – Michigan St.
10 – Miami (FL)
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas

North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – North Carolina (ACC)
16 – Play-in (Mount St. Mary’s vs. Mississippi Valley St.)
9 – Kansas St.
8 – Arizona St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Butler (Horizon)
12 – Virginia Tech
13 – George Mason (CAA)
4 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
Washington, D.C.
3 - Louisville
14 – CSU-Fullerton (Big West)
11 – UNLV (MWC)
6 – Indiana
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Texas A&M
10 - Villanova
15 – Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
2 – Tennessee

Detroit Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Memphis (CUSA)
16 – Coppin St. (MEAC)
9 – Oregon
8 – Davidson (SoCon)
Tampa, Florida
5 – Washington St.
12 – UNLV (MWC)
13 – Oral Roberts (Summit)
4 – Xavier (A-10)
Omaha, Nebraska
3 – Wisconsin (Big 10)
14 – Boise St. (WAC)
11 – Illinois St.
6 - Clemson
Birmingham, Alabama
7 - Oklahoma
10 – Mississippi St.
15 – Portland St. (Big Sky)
2 – Georgetown

Read more!

20 minutes!!! FINAL SEED LIST

Bracket Project Guy - Take this one.
Georgia Won, so VT is out. As noted earlier, I swapped South Alabama and Illinois St.

1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas
2: Texas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, Ohio St., South Alabama, UNLV
12: Georgia, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, UT-Arlington, Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, Illinois St., St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU
Read more!

Bracket, 15.75 hours til Selection Sunday

Here is my first published bracket in two months. If Texas, Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Northwestern St. win, this will be my final bracket. I'd like to point out that either Georgetown or Duke is going to get screwed with respect to location - G'town's closest pod is in Raleigh.
The following teams were moved up or down a seed line to fulfill bracket requirements:
UP: USC, BYU, Villanova, UNLV, Siena
DOWN: Clemson, Baylor, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Winthrop



Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Texas (Big XII)
16 – American (Patriot)
9 – Arkansas (SEC)
8 - Arizona
Tampa, Florida
5 – Southern Cal
12 – Kent St. (MAC)
13 – Siena (MAAC)
4 - Connecticut
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Cornell (IVY)
11 – St. Mary’s
6 – West Virginia
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 - Purdue
10 - Baylor
15 – Maryland-Baltimore County (America East)
2 – Duke


Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA (Pac-10)
16 – Northwestern St. (Southland)
9 – BYU
8 - Gonzaga
Denver, Colorado
5 – Drake (MVC)
12 – Virginia Tech
13 – Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
4 – Notre Dame
Washington, D.C.
3 - Marquette
14 – Winthrop (Big South)
11 – Ohio St.
6 - Vanderbilt
Omaha, Nebraska
7 – Michigan St.
10 – Miami (FL)
15 – Austin Peay (OVC)
2 – Kansas


North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – North Carolina (ACC)
16 – Play-in (Mount St. Mary’s vs. Mississippi Valley St.)
9 – Kansas St.
8 – Arizona St.
Denver, Colorado
5 – Butler (Horizon)
12 – Temple (A-10)
13 – George Mason (CAA)
4 – Pittsburgh (Big East)
Washington, D.C.
3 - Louisville
14 – CSU-Fullerton (Big West)
11 – UNLV (MWC)
6 – Indiana
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Texas A&M
10 - Oregon
15 – Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
2 – Tennessee


Detroit Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 – Memphis (CUSA)
16 – Coppin St. (MEAC)
9 – Villanova
8 – Davidson (SoCon)
Tampa, Florida
5 – Washington St.
12 – San Diego (WCC)
13 – Oral Roberts (Summit)
4 – Xavier (A-10)
Omaha, Nebraska
3 – Wisconsin (Big 10)
14 – Boise St. (WAC)
11 – South Alabama
6 - Clemson
Birmingham, Alabama
7 - Oklahoma
10 – Mississippi St.
15 – Portland St. (Big Sky)
2 – Georgetown

Read more!

16 Hours until the Selection Show

Its almost that time again. Some quick thoughts:
UCLA, UNC, and Memphis are all but assured of one seeds. The bubble starts at Arizona St. – that is, I would not be overly surprised to see any of them out. As I said yesterday, if Virginia Tech is competitive against UNC, they’ll get in. They did so – just one problem. Because of the way the bubble teams played, VT is the last team in. If either Georgia or Illinois wins their respective tournaments, then VT is out again, unless I change my mind and swap out Ohio St. instead. If both UGA and UI win, then both Ohio St. and Virginia Tech are out. No questions asked.
Texas and Kansas will be 4 and 5 overall, with the winner getting the 4 and the loser getting the 5. Besides this, the Southland championship, and the aforementioned scenarios involving Illinois, Georgia, VT, and OSU, nothing should change. If Texas, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Northwestern St. all win, this will be my final seed list.
Kentucky fans have to be in serious pain. I mean, all they had to do was not lose against bad teams, and they’d be golden. And they lost to the worst team in the SEC. Sheesh. Arkansas fans do not have to have similar worries, since Sunday championships have very little impact on the bracket. And to all those Arkansas fans out there – I’m paying attention. I maintain that they were out before the Vandy win, an 11 before the Tennessee win, and are now a 9.
My bracket will be coming out shortly. I just need to make sure there are no conflicts.
Italics now mean that the conference has NOT had their championship yet.

EDIT: After much deliberation, I decided to swap Illinois St and South Alabama. Also, I decided this about the conference tourneys: If Georgia wins, they replace VT. If Illinois wins, they replace Ohio St. If Texas-KU goes to overtime, Texas gets the 1 seed.
1: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Texas
2: Kansas, Tennessee, Duke, Georgetown
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Butler, Washington St., Clemson
6: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Davidson, Arizona St., Arizona
9: Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas St., Baylor
10: Miami (FL), BYU, Mississippi St., Villanova
11: St. Mary’s, South Alabama, Ohio St., Virginia Tech
12: UNLV, Kent St., Temple, San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Boise St., Cal-State Fullerton
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: American, Northwestern ST., Coppin St., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
All Possible Others: Kentucky, South Alabama, St. Joseph’s, Massachusetts, Dayton, Nebraska, Syracuse, VCU
New Teams In: Temple, Boise St, Coppin St, Virginia Tech, UNLV
Old Teams Out: St. Joe’s, New Mexico St, Morgan St, Kentucky, Illinois St.
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10, ACC
4: SEC
3: WCC
2: MWC, Sun Belt, A-10
Read more!

Seed List through PI Day

Too tired to comment. Will remark on today’s events… tomorrow evening? Didn’t manage to complete a bracket, but I did make a list of the top four seed by region (yes, Tennessee will snipe the 1 seed in the North Carolina Regional). I can say that with the losses today, there are only 5 teams left on my bubble. Biggest Debate in my mind (especially if St. Joe's or Kent St. loses tomorrow): Ohio St vs. South Alabama vs. St. Joe's vs. UNLV vs. Kent St.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Marquette
4: Connecticut, Xavier, Notre Dame, Drake
5: Pittsburgh, Butler, Washington St., Southern Cal
6: Clemson, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana
7: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Purdue, Michigan St.
8: Gonzaga, Arizona, Mississippi St., Davidson
9: Oregon, Kansas St., Arizona St., BYU
10: Baylor, Miami (FL), Villanova, Kentucky
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Arkansas, Ohio St.
12: South Alabama, St. Joe's, Kent St., San Diego
13: George Mason, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Winthrop
14: Siena, Cornell, Cal-State Fullerton, New Mexico St
15: Portland St, UMBC, Belmont, Austin Peay
16: Morgan St, American, Northwestern ST., Mt. St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley St.
Last Five Out: UNLV, VT , Dayton, Syracuse, VCU,
New Teams In: St. Joe's, Arkansas, CSU-Fullerton, Northwestern St.
Old Teams Out: Dayton, UNLV, UC-Santa Barabara, Stephen F. Austin
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10, SEC
4: ACC
3: WCC
2: A-10, MVC, Sun Belt

Texas Regional:
1. Memphis
2. Texas
3. Stanford
4. Notre Dame

Arizona Regional:
1. UCLA
2. Kansas
3. Marquette
4. Connecticut

Detroit Regional:
1. North Carolina
2. Georgetown
3. Wisconsin
4. Xavier

North Carolina Regional:
1. Tennessee
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Drake
Read more!

Seed List Through Thursday, March 13

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas
3: Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Xavier
4: Marquette, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Drake
5: Butler, Pittsburgh, Washington St., Southern Cal
6: Vanderbilt, Clemson, Indiana, Oklahoma
7: Purdue, West Virginia, Arizona, Texas A&M
8: Michigan St., Arizona St., Gonzaga, Oregon
9: Kansas St., Mississippi St., Davidson, BYU
10: Baylor, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Villanova
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Ohio St., Kent St.
12: Dayton, UNLV, South Alabama, San Diego
13: George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Mount St. Mary's, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, St. Joe’s, Syracuse, VCU
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, New Mexico
New Teams In: South Alabama, Mount St. Mary's
Old Teams Out: Syracuse, Sacred Heart
Conference Breakdown:
8: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: Big 10
4: ACC, SEC
3: WCC
2: MWC, A-10, MVC, Sun Belt
Read more!

Thoughts following Thursday, March 13

First of all, I still haven't posted the link to the bloggers Big East Awards (the ones you saw earlier were my personal votes). Here is that link.

Explain something to me. ESPN said yesterday that the winner of Syracuse-Villanova was definitely in. Today, when Villanova lost a game to Georgetown, an elite team with whom they were competitive in for most of the game, suddenly Villanova’s bubble chances were fading. Any other questions as to why I don’t rely on ESPN for analysis?

I finally changed my stance regarding Syracuse due to a blogpost from Gary Parrish, linked here. I will be replacing them with South Alabama, just because I can’t bring myself to put either St. Joe’s or Arkansas in. If by some chance Syracuse does make it in… I hate each and every one of you college basketball fans who talked me out of selecting them.

Several teams bubbles burst today – Maryland losing to Boston College, Florida losing to Alabama, Texas Tech losing to Oklahoma St., Massachusetts losing to Charlotte, UAB losing to Tulsa, and New Mexico losing to Utah. Each of those teams are officially off my bubble – I am certain that none of them will make the tourney.

Other teams merely hurt their seed. Arizona St. could have used the win over USC, but instead they’ll probably have to settle for an 8 or 9 seed. Dayton is still in following their close loss to Xavier, but they will be sweating on Sunday. Villanova and Oregon are in that same situation as Dayton – probably in, but not certain, following losses to Georgetown and Washington St., respectively. Baylor will probably drop a line or two following an embarrassing loss to Colorado, but I still won’t say they are a bubble team.

UNLV almost suffered a crushing loss to TCU, one that assuredly would have dropped them from the tournament. They survived, but another close win to a bad team on their home court might cause the committee to rethink them.

So in reality, I have on my bubble what you see here, plus 3 teams: Arkansas, St. Joe’s, and Syracuse. I also have a list of teams that could potentially be at-large bids with runs to the conference final: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St. and Nebraska. Beyond that… nothing. Nada. No other team is really deserving at this point. I suppose if pressed for a fourth team, I would say VCU.

In any event, seed list to follow soon. Hopefully, I will produce a bracket Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon.
Read more!

My 34

On Wednesday, each committee member had to submit a list of the 34 teams they consider in. Any team that gets all but two votes get in. Note that it is my understanding that Drake and Butler would get put on these ballots, even though they already qualified. To put an end to my early morning posting, the teams I feel probably got in unanimously on this ballot, in no real order:

1. UCLA
2. Memphis
3. Tennessee
4. Duke
5. UNC
6. Texas
7. Xavier
8. Georgetown
9. Kansas
10. Louisville
11. Notre Dame
12. Connecticut
13. Wisconsin
14. Stanford
15. Purdue
16. Vanderbilt
17. Marquette
18. Clemson
19. Indiana
20. Southern Cal
21. Washington St.
22. Michigan St.
23. Drake
24. Butler
25. Pittsburgh
26. West Virginia
27. Baylor

Other teams that may have gotten in on that first ballot:

1. Gonzaga
2. Arizona
3. Arizona St.
4. Oklahoma
5. Davidson

I wish I could see the votes... it would be so interesting to see what the actual committee thinks. Perhaps they could do that, since the committee is isolated and the votes anonymous even to the committee. Alas, that would kill much of the mystique of Selection Sunday. Perhaps they could reveal the votes after the fact?
Read more!

Are you Listening Boeheim?

Contrary to what ESPN says, the Orange are not out.

This is how weak the bubble is - Syracuse still has a legit shot at making the tournament, because they have 2 marquee wins (G'town and Marquette) and only 1 bad loss (USF), defined by me as a loss to a team above 100 in the Colton Index

Of the teams on the bubble, only Oregon and Florida have only 1 bad loss (the rest have between 2 and 5). If you insist on calling the Arizona teams bubble teams, UA has 0, while ASU has 1.

Only Kentucky, St. Mary's, and Ohio St. have at least two marquee wins (Arizona and Arizona St. both have 3, if you insist again on calling them bubble teams).

Syracuse also has a better SOS: 33, better than any bubble teams not from the Pac-10 or Ohio St. (Texas Tech also has a better SOS, but I don't know if anyone else consider them a bubble team).

So tell me: If teams out there don't have more good wins, or fewer bad losses, or better schedules, then what do they have?

You may point to the previous snubs of the Orange(men) as evidence for them not getting in. The difference is this - the last committee didn't include a Big East Rep.

If you want to play along with ESPN and say that Syracuse has no chance, be my guest. Heck, even Boeheim has bought into the media attention. But I am of the opinion that they still have a good case for being in.
Read more!

Another two Profiles to consider

Team A (Bubble In)
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-2 (Win over BYU)
50-100 Record: 4-2
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 147
Last 10: 7-3

Team B (Not on Bubble)
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 0-2
50-100 Record: 8-2
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 78
Last 10: 6-4

Is a win over a team that will be no higher than a 7 seed enough to count a team as in off this bubble, especially with two losses to teams above 100 in the Colton Index? Doesn't an 8-4 Record against the top 100 sound better than a 5-4 record?

Speaking of New Mexico...

Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-4 (Win over UNLV)
50-100 Record: 2-1
100+ Losses: 2
SOS: 179
Last 10: 8-2

Do you really think a team thats best win is over a team square on the bubble should be in with 2 bad losses? Me either. I get frustrated when I see other bracketologists still projecting them IN.
Read more!

Alright, one thing DOES bother me.

Everyone is STILL projecting team USA (South Alabama) in, despite the semi-final loss to Middle Tennessee St. at home. Obviously people can make persuasive arguments, but lets do a blind resume.

South Alabama:
Overall Record: 24-5
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-1 (Win over Mississippi St.)
50-100 Record: 2-1 (Loss to Mississippi)
100+ Losses: 3
SOS: 209

Team B
Overall Record: 21-4
Top 25 Wins: 0
25-50 Record: 1-0 (Win over Oklahoma)
50-100 Record: 0-1 (Loss to Texas Tech)
100+ Losses: 3
SOS: 278

So, obviously USA has the better profile, but they are comparable. So why is South Alabama averaging 2 seed lines higher, and in some places has been placed 5 seed lines above mystery team B? Team B isn't even being considered for the bubble in most place.
Read more!

Seed List Through Tuesday, March 11/Blogpoll Through Monday

I am not going to make any comments up here at the top. Last time I did that while I was tired (that is, last time I posted), I made a couple credibility destroying mistakes. I’ll not do that again, so I am forgoing any real information up here. However, here's this week's blogpoll.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina
2: Texas, Louisville, Duke, Georgetown
3: Kansas, Wisconsin, Stanford, Connecticut
4: Xavier, Notre Dame, Drake, Butler
5: Marquette, Washington St., Southern Cal, Vanderbilt
6: Clemson, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma
7: Purdue, Arizona St., Arizona, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Michigan St., Oregon, Baylor
9: Kansas St., Mississippi St., Gonzaga, Davidson
10: BYU, Syracuse, Miami (FL), Kentucky
11: Illinois St., St. Mary’s, Villanova, Kent St.
12: Ohio St., UNLV, Dayton, San Diego
13: George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Sacred Heart, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Florida
Next Five Out: St. Joe’s, Mississippi, South Alabama, Maryland, Maryland
New Teams In: San Diego, Western Kentucky
Old Teams Out: Arkansas, South Alabama
Read more!

Seed List Through Sunday, March 9

A little late on my part tonight.
Drake gets their auto-bid, ending the Valley Curse. IU and Michigan St. lost to bad teams, causing a severe drop. `I take back what I said yesterday about Davidson – they may get in even if they lose to Elon. In any case, it will be close if they lose. VCU shockingly lost to W&M, so they are done. Nebraska, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech are essentially done. However, reaching the Big XII finals should be enough for any of those three, as it would require beating either KU or UT.
As someone suggested yesterday in a comment, I considered conference records today, and that led to a little movement. As noted yesterday, the “Last Four Out” is misleading, because I don’t think that those teams have much of a chance at all.
1: UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis
2: Texas, Duke, Louisville, Kansas
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Xavier, Wisconsin
4: Notre Dame, Connecticut, Drake, Butler
5: Washington St., Marquette, Southern Cal, Clemson
6: Pittsburgh, Indiana, Arizona, Oklahoma
7: Texas A&M, West Virginia, Purdue, Vanderbilt
8: Michigan St., Arizona St, Baylor, Kansas St
9: Oregon, Miami, Gonzaga, Mississippi St.
10: BYU, Syracuse, Davidson, St. Mary’s,
11: Kentucky, Villanova, Illinois St., Kent St.
12: Ohio St., Dayton, Arkansas, UNLV
13: South Alabama, George Mason, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, American, Sacred Heart, Alabama St.Last Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Maryland, Texas Tech, Massachusetts

New Teams In: George Mason, Sacred Heart
Old Teams Out: Virginia Commonwealth, Robert Morris

Edit: I took out something I wrote about St. Mary's/San Diego, which I apparently wrote before the end of the game, and then forgot to edit after USD's amazing comeback.
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Big East End of Year Award Ballot: Go Irish, Beat Famine

1) Louisville
2) Georgetown
3) Notre Dame
4) Connecticut
5) Marquette
6) Pittsburgh
7) West Virginia
8) Villanova
9) Syracuse
10) Cincinnati
11) Providence
12) Seton Hall
13) Depaul
14) St. John’s
15) South Florida
16) Rutgers

• Player of the Year: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

1st Team:

• AJ Price, Connecticut
  
• Jeff Adrien, Connecticut
  
• Kentrell Gransberry, South Florida
  
• David Padgett, Louisville
  
• Sam Young, Pittsburgh

2nd Team:

• Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
  
• Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati
  
• Terrence Williams, Louisville
  
• Donte Green, Syracuse
  
• Brian Laing, Seton Hall

3rd Team:

• Kyle Mcalarney, Notre Dame
  
• Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
  
• Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
  
• Dominique Jones, South Florida
  
• Joe Alexander, West Virginia

• Freshman Of the Year: Donte Green, Syracuse

1st Team:

• Dejuan Blair, Pitt
  
• Jonny Flynn, Syracuse
  
• Dominique Jones, USF
  
• Dar Tucker, Depaul
  
• Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall

2nd Team:

• Mac Koshwal, Depaul
  
• Justin Burrell, St. John’s
  
• Corey Fisher, Villanova
  
• Corey Chandler, Rutgers
  
• DJ Kennedy, St. John’s
  
  
• Coach of the Year: Mike Brey, Notre Dame
  
• Defensive POY: Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut
  
• Most Improved Player: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
  
• Projected BET Champ: Louisville
  

2008-09 Top 3
1) Notre Dame
2) Connecticut
3) Syracuse

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Hartford Seed List - Through Saturday, March 8

Really, I didn’t want to put anyone in as that last seed. Arkansas doesn’t deserve it, St. Joe’s doesn’t deserve, TTU doesn’t deserve it, and UMass doesn’t deserve it. If VT can do well in the ACC tourney, they might deserve it. However, I’m just hoping that USD wins the WCC tournament, just so I don’t have to deal with that last spot. Cleveland St. from the Horizon, or any of the lower teams from the A-10 or a high-major league would also be welcome.
We now have four teams with automatic bids to the tournament – Cornell, Winthrop, Austin Peay, and Belmont. Also, because of the way the Southern Conference tournament has turned out, Davidson is no longer a shoo-in for an at-large. If you’ve been following college basketball, you probably know that Davidson has lots of wins over bad teams, no wins over good teams, and a few wins/losses against mediocre teams. The only thing keeping them in is their lack of losses against bad teams. Since Elon, College of Charleston, and UNC-Greensboro all upset their opponents, Davidson’s two remaining games would be considered bad losses, thus taking away the strongest attribute of their resume. However, this should not be a problem, since Davidson has been mowing down its opponents.
There was some movement in this seed list due to games played and re-evaluated logic. Biggest movers were Texas Tech (re-evaluation), Notre Dame (re-evaluation), Southern Cal (Big Win over Stanford), Georgetown (Big Win over Louisville), Vanderbilt (Bad loss to Alabama), and Miami (Bad Loss to Florida St.)
1: UCLA, Tennessee, North Carolina, Memphis
2: Texas, Duke, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Georgetown, Xavier, Connecticut
4: Wisconsin, Washington St., Indiana, Notre Dame
5: Drake, Southern Cal, Butler, Marquette
6: Clemson, Arizona, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Michigan St.
8: Arizona St, Baylor, Purdue, Oregon
9: Kansas St, Miami, Gonzaga, Mississippi St.
10: St. Mary’s, Villanova, BYU, Davidson
11: Syracuse, Illinois St., Kentucky, Kent St.
12: Maryland, Dayton, UNLV, Arkansas
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Winthrop, Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell
15: New Mexico St, Portland St, UMBC, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St, Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Texas Tech, Massachusetts, Virginia Tech
New Teams IN: UNLV, Dayton, Winthrop
Old Teams OUT: Texas Tech, St. Joseph’s, UNC-Asheville
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: ACC, SEC
4: Big 10
2: MVC, MWC, A-10, WCC
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Seed List through Friday, March 7

1: UCLA, Tennessee, Duke, UNC
2: Memphis, Texas, Louisville, Stanford
3: Kansas, Xavier, Wisconsin, Notre Dame
4: Georgetown, Connecticut, Washington St, Indiana
5: Butler, Marquette, Drake, Vanderbilt
6: Arizona, USC, Clemson, Texas A&M
7: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Michigan St., West Virginia
8: Arizona St., Miami, Baylor, Kansas St.
9: Purdue, Oregon, Mississippi St, Gonzaga
10: SMC, BYU, Davidson, Villanova
11: Illinois St, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Kentucky
12: Arkansas, Maryland, St. Joseph’s, Kent St.
13: South Alabama, Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Siena, UC-Santa Barbara, Cornell, New Mexico St.
15: Portland St., UMBC, UNC-Asheville, Belmont
16: Austin Peay, Morgan St., Robert Morris, American, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: UNLV, Dayton, Massachusetts, Nebraska
Others Considered: Ohio St., Virginia Tech, Oklahoma St, Wake Forest, Florida, New Mexico
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
5: ACC, SEC
4: Big 10
2: MVC, WCC, A-10
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Seed List through Monday, March 3

That's right, I'm a whole day behind. But I promise it is for a good reason. I decided to go through the steps of the selection process. However, I obviously am not 10 people. Rather, I am one. So first, I made up 4 lists - Team's Key Wins, Team's Record against RPI Top 50/100, Team's record against Pomeroy 50/100, Team's Record Against Colton 50/100. Then, I ran the selection process, if the process only had 4 people, one of whom only looked at the key wins, one of whom only looked at RPI, one of whom only looked at Pomeroy, and one of whom only looked at Colton. Like last time, I ignored conference champions (except for one to make the 12th seed line even). Here's how it turned out:

1: UCLA, Texas, Tennessee, Duke
2: UNC, Memphis, Kansas, Lousiville
3: Stanford, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Xavier
4: Washington St, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Indiana
5: Marquette, Arizona, Clemson, Michigan St.
6: Vanderbilt, USC, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
7: Baylor, Oklahoma, Arizona St, Drake
8: Kansas St., Gonzaga, Miami (FL), Purdue
9: West Virginia, Mississippi St, Oregon, Butler
10: BYU, St. Mary’s, Nebraska, Wake Forest
11: Florida, Syracuse, Villanova, Kentucky
12: UNLV, Arkansas, Davidson, South Alabama
Last 4 Out: Maryland, Illinois St, Oklahoma St, Kent St.
Conference Breakdown:
9: Big East
7: Pac-10, Big XII
6: SEC
5: ACC
4: Big 10
2: MWC, WCC
1: A-10, MVC, SoCon, Sun Belt, Horizon, CUSA

Since this wasn't entirely my opinion (after arranging the lists, it was all a matter of plug-and-chug), I'm not going to list the changes.

For my thoughts about this seed list/process, click the "Read More".

• As expected, the process was quite long, and very tedious. I started working on this Monday night, late, worked all through the morning and afternoon, and evening... so almost 15 hours straight. And yet I may do it again, the day before Selection Sunday. If I do so, I will probably also do my own, and do a bracket.
• I was shocked, really, that the A-10 only got one team in. This showed me that the worst case scenario has occurred - the worst teams in the league beating the best teams, and creating a muddied middle where all teams either have a dismal OOC resume or a dismal in-conference resume.
• Davidson actually made it in as the 45th team, but when going through the seeding procedures was moved to the "Last team in" Slot. I don't think this will happen during the actual selection process. If Davidson is in, then they'll probably be an 11, just because the seeding procedures allow for more "whos better than who" thinking.
• Could the Big East really get 9 teams in? Syracuse and Villanova hold tenuous positions, but I think they could do it. 6 BEast teams in the first 6 lines, which means 6 locks. WV is on the 9-line, and should be in unless they happen to draw Depaul, Provy, SJU, or SHU in the 1st round of the BET and lose in that 1st round.
• As for Syracuse and Villanova - each has winnable regular season games left, and probably should also win their first round game if they want to feel safe (although at this point they could theoretically face each other).
• SEC with 6 teams? Really? This could change easily in the next week and a half, with 3 teams firmly on the bubble.
• We all know that Duke-UNC will probably be a battle for a one seed. Each team, however, needs to pray for Tennessee to fall as much as possible. Otherwise, the Duke-UNC loser will be the team rewarded with Charlotte, not the winner.
• I'm not sure why Arizona St., Nebraska, and Texas A&M don't get any love. Or why Drake, Butler, USA, BYU, Purdue, and UNLV get so much love. Actually, I see a pattern here (ignoring Purdue). Year after year we hear sob stories about mid-majors who got snubbed, or about how such-and-such smaller team would totally own all the major conference teams if they just got the opportunity (and to the East Coast, the MWC might as well be a mid-major conference, even though they are not). Thus, bracketologists start subconsciously boosting mid-majors while devaluing major-conference teams. This fails for one reason: the committee. 4 committee members represent major conferences, and you can sure as shootin' believe that they'll pick another major conference team over a mid-major that could potentially embarrass a school they represent. Of the other 6, some will feel for the other mid-major schools, while the rest will only look out for the best interest of the schools they represent. Because of this division, the mid-majors (plus the MWC) get screwed.
• As for Purdue... I'm not sure how they ended up as an 8. Oh, right... its because they kept failing to advance to the "vote on seeding stage". They'd get selected as one of those 8 by two "people", and then the other two wouldn't. I expect the the Boilermakers will be closer to a 6 on March 16th.

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Thoughts from today

Now that I'm done correcting my earlier mistakes from my seed list, here are my reflections from another Saturday full of college basketball:

I laughed when I saw an ESPN headline saying that the Syracuse loss today to Pittsburgh burst their bubble. That was obviously written by someone who hasn't the faintest idea how weak this years bubble is.

There were, however, several teams who, in my opinion, burst their bubbles today:

• Ohio St., losing at Minnesota
• Nebraska, losing at Oklahoma St. (I believed that they still had very slim hopes, if they could win out)
• George Mason, a team whose bubble burst a couple weeks ago, but still gets talked about
• Stephen F. Austin, whose 3 loss season was starting to get some notice. This is the second horrible loss for the Lumberjacks, however, and their win over Oklahoma probably won't be enough to get them in if they don't win the Southland
• Houston, who was still on the bubble because of their lack of bad wins, lost to East Carolina

Other merely hurt their chances:

• Kent St, fresh off a major BracketBuster win, managed a bad loss to put them back on the bubble
• Florida, who needs to beat Tennessee on Wednesday and Kentucky @ Rupp next Sunday to have a shot, as they lost to fellow bubble team Mississippi St.
• Syracuse, as mentioned earlier
• Wake Forest, who added another not-so-good loss @ GT to a resume that contains quite a few bad ones
• Texas A&M, a normally highly effective team that was held that a shockingly low .58 Points Per Possession in a 37 point effort against Oklahoma, beating their previous low of .72 in a loss to Texas
• Cal, who probably needs a sweep of the LA teams next week after falling to Washington

Other things of note:

• This has been said elsewhere, but you know a team is good when they are down 15 or so points in the second half, and you don't consider the other team to be blowing them out. Such was true of UNC @ BC and Duke @ NC St.
• In the Year of the Weak Bubble, we also seem to have less dominant teams than in previous years. Every good team has a fatal flaw - Duke is too small, UNC can't play defense, Georgetown and Memphis can't shoot Free Throws, Texas is inconsistent, and so on.
• This was emphasized today by a number of upsets and scares. Texas, Kent St., and Vanderbilt all lost, while UNC, Duke, Memphis, Xavier and Drake all had scares against vastly inferior opponents.
• Out of the games I watched today, St. Mary's-Gonzaga was the best, although Gonzaga pulled away to make the end a boring affair. Georgetown-Marquette and Texas-Texas Tech had much more exciting endings.

Since I do not have transportation to Chicago for tomorrow, I am not able to get to the Depaul game. I would do another liveblog, but I don't think that is advisable. Instead, I will just post about the conferences that wrapped up regular-season play today and tomorrow.

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Seed List Through Friday, February 29

I don't have time to do the one-bid conference champions, so I'm going to take a leaf from Schmolik's book and leave them out (they aren't the important ones anyways)

1: Texas, Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA
2: North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Xavier
3: Stanford, Kansas, Notre Dame, Connecticut
4: Wisconsin, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Georgetown
5: Purdue, Marquette, Michigan St, Washington St.
6: Pittsburgh, Southern Cal, Kansas St, Clemson
7: Drake, Baylor, Arizona St, St. Mary’s
8: West Virginia, Gonzaga, Butler, BYU
9: Arizona, Texas A&M, Kent St., Oklahoma
10: Miami (FL), California, Syracuse, Wake Forest
11: Oregon, UNLV, Davidson, Villanova
12: Mississippi St., Maryland, St. Joseph’s, South Alabama
13: Illinois St.
Last Four Out: Florida, UMass, Rhode Island, Kentucky
Conference Breakdown
8: Pac-10, Big East
6: ACC, Big XII
4: Big 10
3: SEC
2: WCC, A-10, MWC, MVC

EDIT: I forgot Oklahoma. They are now in, and I moved Illinois St. out.
EDIT: Wow, mistake after mistake. Illinois St. back in after I realized I was short a team.
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ND-Louisville Gamelog, Second Half

And we're back. Nice Cut by Gody. Padgett walks all over the place, and yet the Irish get called for the foul. Misses the front end. Makes the back. And a 3 for ND. And the lead is down to 11. L'ville slows it down, gets it inside to Padgett, who makes it. Horrible shot selection by K-Mac, TJ gets the ball, then gets called for 3 second. 45-32
18:05
So every time Padgett shoots, its either uncontested or a foul. He hits the first. And the second. Gody gets fouled. Missed the first, made the second. Horrible pass. And then a horrible charge called on ZH as Padgett was still moving. Clark hits the two. 16 points now. Horrible shot, but L'ville dribbles it off it his foot on the way back. Another intercepted pass, but TJ's defense made Williams miss. Gody takes it inside for the and one. 49-36
16:15
Sick reverse layup by Kurz, TO L'ville. 49-38.
15:43
And we're back. Ayers gets called for an obvious foul. Under 16 TO. 49-38, L'ville.
15:24
Clark misses the first. Makes the second. Gody gets the ball, kicks it out, back inside, miss. Padgett scores, of course.TO ND, cause TJ was trapped. We only have 1 more. 52-38.
14:22
TJ almost loses the ball, Gody puts it in. Padgett comes right back with an emphatic dunk. After a quick foul, a quick dish to Gody under the basket for two. And another L'ville 3. The frenetic pace is back, and the deficit is 15. Ayers hits a 3. Sosa misses the three, Clark gets the putback but misses the and one. Gody misses, but Clark loses it out of bounds. 59-45, L'ville.
12:28
Padgett checks out. Only scored 2 in the first half without him. TJ's 3 rims out, and Clark comes back with an emphatic dunk. Bad pass to Gody, who gets fouled. 61-45, L'ville. Under 12 TO.
11:35
Ayers 3 rattles around, then drops. 13 points down, 11 minutes left. Gody blocks Caracter (though it was a definitely foul on Gody), then the ball went off Caracter, but the ref called it off K-Mac. Quick foul on Zach, his third. Miss, and ball goes out off L'ville. Gody gets the ball inside, hits for his 24th point. 10 minutes to go, lead down to 11. Palacio misses, and an anticipatory foul called. Misses the first, makes the second. Zeller tips it back in. But L'ville gets points. Amazing play by Luke to save the possession. 9 minutes to go, ND missed shots. L'ville gets fouled before the shot, but misses the first of the one-and-one. 64-52, L'ville.
7:48
Nice move by Padgett to get two. 3 on 2 after a steal for L'ville. Peoples makes an obvious foul on the floor, but the ref gives the guy continuation, and he misses the and-one. TJ blocked from behind. Foul from behind by Gody on Palacios. Misses the first. L'ville has horrible foul shooting. Makes the second. Trapped on the baseline, ball stolen. L'ville misses. Gody airballs one. 17 point deficit, 6:22 left.
Peoples fouled hard on the shot. Makes both shots. Zeller with the cheap foul. Padgett makes both. 6 to go, 17 points. This is horrible. 2 more for L'ville. This isn't good any more, and I'm behind a few possessions. Gody scores two, last TO called by ND. 17 point game.
5:36
ND comes out in a half-hearted press. Missed wide-open 3. Missed wide-open 2. Under 5 minutes. Palacios fails to save that ball. 3 for Ayers, 14 point game, 14 points on the game for Ayers. L'ville calls a TO.
4:28
Apparently, I'm flustered. Quick 2 by Padgett, foul by L'ville. Under 4 TO. 16 pt. game.
3:58
Still flustered. Kurz makes the first. and the second. Quick steal, and a drive, kickout to Kurz for a 3. Gody makes a quick steal and is fouled. Gody for 1 and 1. Makes both! 9 point game. Horrible attempt at pressing. TJ called for a quick reach-in.
3:16
Double Bonus for L'ville. Sosa makes the first, misses the second. Quick official timeout because of blood on Gody. Fighting hard again. And K-MAC HITS HIS FIRST 3 OF THE GAME. Under 3 minutes, 7 point game. K-Mac called for the reach-in.
2:35
Mcgee makes both, back to 9 points. And technical on K-Mac, for a TO called without one.
Mcgee misses both shots on the technical. Pitino looks like an (expletive) trying to call for the T. Quick airball for Kurz. 9 point game, 2 minutes to go. Misses badly. L Freakin Harangody makes his first career three. OMG. POY. Quick Foul. 1:30 to go, 6 points, Padgett misses 1. K-Mac Misses. Quick foul. Williams makes both. 9 points. LUUUUUUUUKE with another 3!!!!! Foul. Sosa makes 1. 7 points, 1 minute. 9 points, 43 seconds. Ayers makes the three. Dunk puts its to 8. ANOTHER LH 3, puts him up to 39 points on the game. 5 points, 20 seconds. Quick foul, TO L'ville. Makes both, back to 7. Gody fouled with 11.5 left. 1st rims out. Hits second. 6 point game. Anticipatory call on the long throw in, 1.6 seconds ran off. Sosa makes both. 8 points. Luke misses a 3. 3.4 seconds. Bank shot by Hillesland, L'ville wins, 90-85. Career High of 40 for LH.
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Notre Dame-Louisville Game Log

Pre Tip-off: Alright here we go... I've never done this before so it might be horrible. I also may get distracted. Feel free to leave comments to let me know you're here, and I'll try to get to them. Also, ignore the "read more".

And the tip: Louisville get the tip. Didn't even look like Hillesland tried.

Excellent opening defensive possession for the Irish. Unfortunately Luke just shot an airball.
19:27
Louisville scores, then steals off a bad pass on a full-court press. 5-0 L'ville
18:43
The Irish break the press, and Hillesland gets fouled. 5-2 L'ville
18:32
Half-hearted press by the Irish. 3 by Smith. Harangody gets two on the return. Padgett drives and scores. 10-4 L'ville.
18:10
Good defense by the Irish goes to waste as Clark puts back a shot emphatically. Goaltend not called down at the other end, and L'ville is fouled taking the ball the other way. Another 2 for the Cards, and then Gody gets two more. 14-6, L'ville.
17:10
L'ville moving the ball around well. Mcgee open at the top of the key for 3. Timeout ND. This isn't looking good. 17-6 L'ville
16:04
Sorry, reformatting took me away from the game for 40 seconds. L'ville missed a 3, then Harangody made a 2, and then once ND got the ball back, they missed a shot, and a foul was called on Kurz on the rebound. Under 16 TO. 17-8, L'ville
15:24
Doing a spot on white suits... I can't believe that this is what they could come up with.
Back from the timeout... L'ville jumper clanks off the rim. No ability to penetrate inside, and then TJ airballs a 3. 17-8 L'ville.
14:38
Why can't we penetrate like L'ville? Williams makes another statement dunk, followed by another pick-off and another L'ville 3. This is slightly depress. ND TO. 22-8
14:06
And we're back to reality, as Peoples turns the ball over. Luckily, L'ville thinks they can do everything inside and take a bad shot. Then Gody is left alone for the two. Again with the overconfidence as they miss an alley-oop. Kurz misses another three. ND not rebounding well. L'ville 3, Gody 2, L'ville 3, Gody 2. Frenetic pace isn't good for first time live blog. L'ville 3. Now 29-14, L'ville.
11:38
Ayers 2. L'ville now slowing it down. Another 3 at the end of the shot clock. Gody tries for two, misses, gets his own rebound, misses again, and then Kurz gets called for over the back. TV TO. Gody has 12 of ND's 16. 32-16, L'ville.
10:56
Finally a 3 point miss for L'ville, but Caracter there for the rebound. Gody has more made shots than the rest of the Irish has attempts. L'ville pokes the ball out. Running out of time, TJ airballs another. A quick L'ville miscue, followed by a bad K-Mac pass, another L'ville turnover. Kurz gets it underneath, then dribbles on the line. 34-16, L'ville.
9:18
Block by Gody out of bounds. Foul called on Gody. Airball by Caracter. Gody in trouble, kicks it out, bad drive by TJ. Caracter mishandles a pass, another turnover. Harangody hits a 2 from just inside the 3pt line. Sosa tries a 3, misses, and over the back called on Caracter. Under 8 TO. 34-18, L'ville.
7:34
While on this break, I'd just like to say that Gody is having another outstanding game. The Irish got a bad start, then spent some time trading 2s for 3s, which didn't work.
Irish inbound. Gody almost lost the ball, got it to Peoples, who made a nice dish to Kurz. Gody. defends well, and L'ville misses. Two straight misses for Gody. Clark runs into Gody, turns it over. Poor shot selection for the Irish, and foul on L'ville. K-Mac nails a floater on the inbound. Williams hits another 3. Not good. Kurz blocked on the drive. Smith tries a 3, but no such luck. Irish rebound. Took some time, then bad shot for K-mac. Padgett backs in, gets the easy two. This is looking like nightmare. Hillesland gets a kickout from Kurz, hits a two. Padgett misses on a tip, and the Irish drive down fast. Peoples slows it down. Kurz ends the with a bad miss on a bad shot. L'ville gets another 3. TO ND, their 3rd. 42-24, L'ville.
3:08
Ayers in-and-out, shooting just inside the arc. Padgett rolls in, clanks one of the rim. Long possession, bad miss for K-Mac. Ball goes out on the L'ville drive and turned over. Same score as before, Under 4 TO.
1:58
Turnover on the press by TJ, but thankfully Caracter turns it over as well. K-Mac misses with his floater, L'ville runs up the floor and misses a 3. Gody rolls in and misses, and the ball knocked out by L'ville. Under a minute left. Ayers hits the first Irish three of the game. Horrible half. Pellasio (sp?) walks under the basket. 28 seconds, Irish Ball. K-Mac Misses, put-back misses, Pellasio called for a foul on the rebound with 2.2 left. Zeller misses the last shot of the half. 42-27, L'ville.
First Half is over. I'm going to do the second half in a separate post.
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So I'm an inconsistent blogger

Although, since I'm not paid to do this and do not yet have a consistent following, I'm probably allowed a little more leeway.

But, I'm going to make it up. Tonight, I will attempt a live blog of the ND-Louisville game. Tomorrow I will produce a bracket, and post any thoughts I have.

Also, I will be adding collegehoopsnet.com to my list of links. Its a pretty awesome site, with a few bloggers who all seem to know what they are talking about.

Until tonight
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Bracket for week of February 19th

Monday games not included. Edited Tuesday morning for errors (Oklahoma instead of Oklahoma St, WKU instead of S. Alabama)

1: Memphis, Tennessee, Duke, UCLA
2: Kansas, Texas, North Carolina, Connecticut
3: Stanford, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan St.
4: Louisville, Xavier, Marquette, Georgetown
5: Indiana, Drake, Notre Dame, Kansas St.
6: Texas A&M, Arizona, Washington St., Pitt
7: Clemson, Southern California, Arkansas, Baylor
8: St. Mary’s, Vanderbilt, Butler, Oregon
9: Syracuse, Arizona St., Oklahoma, Maryland
10: Gonzaga, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Rhode Island
11: Brigham Young, California, Dayton, Mississippi St.
12: Mississippi, Miami (FL), Kent St., Davidson
13: VCU, WKU, Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts
14: Cornell, Winthrop, Portland St., Boise St.
15: Rider, CSU-Fullerton, Austin Peay, American
16: Belmont, Wagner, UMBC, Norfolk St., Alabama St.
Last Four Out: St. Joe's, Florida, Ohio St, UMass
New Teams In: Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Mississippi St, Western Kentucky, Boise St., Wagner, Norfolk St, Winthrop
Old Teams Out: Seton Hall, Florida, Ohio St., South Alabama, Nevada, Sacred Heart, Morgan St, UNC-Asheville
Conference Breakdown
8: Big East, Pac-10
6: Big XII, ACC
5: SEC
4: Big 10
3: A-10
2: WCC
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My Big East Ballot

1. Louisville
2. Connecticut
3. Georgetown
4. Notre Dame
5. Marquette
6. West Virginia
7. Pittsburgh
8. Syracuse
9. Cincinnati
10. Villanova
11. Depaul
12. Seton Hall
13. Providence
14. St. John’s
15. South Florida
16. Rutgers
POW: Kentrell Gransberry, USF - No other player had as big a week, and no other player was as valuable to his team
FOW: Chandler, Rutgers - Jeremy Hazell from Seton Hall had a bigger week, but the Pirates got blown out in each game. I wish I could give the Freshman of the week to Chandler, Coburn, and Pettis, but I had to choose just one.
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Top 25 Blogpoll - Tuesday, February 12

Just like last week, I will go through my top 25, and include the overall rank. Commentary to come later (sooner if I recieve inquiries about my logic).
Complete blogpoll.

1. Memphis (1)
2. Duke (2)
3. Tennessee (3)
4. Texas (8)
5. Stanford (7)

6. North Carolina (5)
7. UCLA (6)
8. Kansas (4)
9. Drake (11)
10. Xavier (10)
11. Louisville (20)
12. Texas A&M (19)
13. Kansas St. (17)
14. Georgetown (9)
15. Butler (13)
16. Marquette (25)
17. Notre Dame (20)
18. Purdue (21)
19. Wisconsin (14)
20. St. Mary's (22)
21. Connecticut (15)
22. Washington St. (18)
23. Gonzaga (NR)
24. Indiana (16)
25. Michigan St. (12)

In the poll, Not in my Poll:
Vanderbilt (24)

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Seed List: February 11 (Plus Bracket)

Does not include results from Monday's games:

1: Memphis, Duke, Tennessee, UCLA
2: Kansas, North Carolina, Texas, Xavier
3: Drake, Stanford, Louisville, Connecticut
4: Georgetown, Washington St., Indiana, Notre Dame
5: Michigan St., Butler, Kansas St., Marquette
6: Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Arizona, Pittsburgh
7. St. Mary’s, Baylor, Texas A&M, Gonzaga
8: Clemson, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Arizona St.
9: Purdue, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Florida
10: West Virginia, Rhode Island, Arkansas, BYU
11: Oregon, California, Syracuse, Seton Hall
12: South Alabama, Dayton, Maryland, Kent St.
13: Davidson, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts
14: UNC-Asheville, Cornell, Nevada, Portland St.
15: Rider, CSU-Fullerton, Austin Peay, American
16: Belmont, Morgan St., Sacred Heart, UMBC, Alabama St.
Last Four Out: Villanova, Miami (FL), Creighton, Massachusetts
New Teams In: Maryland, Oregon, Nevada
Old Teams Out: UNLV, Miami (FL), Boise St.
Conference Breakdown
9: Big East
8: Pac-10
6: Big XII
5: SEC, Big 10
4: ACC
3: A-10
2: WCC
Click the link for the bracket


Texas Regional
Little Rock, Arkansas
1 - Memphis
16 – Play-in (UMBC/Alabama St.)
9 – Oklahoma
8 – Clemson
Tampa, Florida
5 – Wisconsin
12 – California
13 – Davidson
4 – Notre Dame
Anaheim, California
3 – Stanford
14 – Portland St.
11 – Dayton
6 – Marquette
Little Rock, Arkansas
7 – Gonzaga
10 – Mississippi
15 - Rider
2 – Texas
 
Arizona Regional
Anaheim, California
1 – UCLA
16 - Belmont
9 – West Virginia
8 – Vanderbilt
Denver, Colorado
5 – Kansas St.
12 – Maryland
13 – Stephen F. Austin
4 – Indiana
Washington, DC
3 – Connecticut
14 - Nevada
11 - BYU
6 – St. Mary’s
Washington, DC
7 – Texas A&M
10 – Oregon
15 – Austin Peay
2 – Xavier
 
North Carolina Regional
Raleigh, North Carolina
1 – Duke
16 – Sacred Heart
9 – Rhode Island
8 – Ohio St.
Denver, Colorado
5 - Butler
12 – Seton Hall
13 – Virginia Commonwealth
4 – Washington St.
Birmingham, Alabama
3 – Louisville
14 – UNC-Asheville
11 – South Alabama
6 – Arizona
Birmingham, Alabama
7 – Baylor
10 – Purdue
15 – CSU-Fullerton
2 – Tennessee
 
Detroit Regional
Omaha, Nebraska
1 – Kansas
16 – Morgan St.
9 - Florida
8 – Arizona St.
Tampa, Florida
5 – Michigan St.
12 – Kent St.
13 – Oral Roberts
4 – Georgetown
Omaha, Nebraska
3 - Drake
14 - Cornell
11 – Syracuse
6 – Southern Cal
Raleigh, North Carolina
7 – Pittsburgh
10 – Arkansas
15 - American
2 – North Carolina

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